Abstract: In this paper we present an autoregressive model with
neural networks modeling and standard error backpropagation
algorithm training optimization in order to predict the gross domestic
product (GDP) growth rate of four countries. Specifically we propose
a kind of weighted regression, which can be used for econometric
purposes, where the initial inputs are multiplied by the neural
networks final optimum weights from input-hidden layer after the
training process. The forecasts are compared with those of the
ordinary autoregressive model and we conclude that the proposed
regression-s forecasting results outperform significant those of
autoregressive model in the out-of-sample period. The idea behind
this approach is to propose a parametric regression with weighted
variables in order to test for the statistical significance and the
magnitude of the estimated autoregressive coefficients and
simultaneously to estimate the forecasts.
Abstract: The prediction of financial time series is a very
complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather
controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends
the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency
Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high
frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the
training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed.
Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based
volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input
and has increased the overall performance of the system.
Abstract: In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit
are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion
periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference system with triangular membership function. We examine
the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of
sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the
Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms
significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period.
This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more
reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.
Abstract: Discrete choice model is the most used methodology for studying traveler-s mode choice and demand. However, to calibrate the discrete choice model needs to have plenty of questionnaire survey. In this study, an aggregative model is proposed. The historical data of passenger volumes for high speed rail and domestic civil aviation are employed to calibrate and validate the model. In this study, different models are compared so as to propose the best one. From the results, systematic equations forecast better than single equation do. Models with the external variable, which is oil price, are better than models based on closed system assumption.
Abstract: The broadcast problem including the plan design is
considered. The data are inserted and numbered at predefined order
into customized size relations. The server ability to create a full,
regular Broadcast Plan (RBP) with single and multiple channels after
some data transformations is examined. The Regular Geometric
Algorithm (RGA) prepares a RBP and enables the users to catch their
items avoiding energy waste of their devices. Moreover, the
Grouping Dimensioning Algorithm (GDA) based on integrated
relations can guarantee the discrimination of services with a
minimum number of channels. This last property among the selfmonitoring,
self-organizing, can be offered by servers today
providing also channel availability and less energy consumption by
using smaller number of channels. Simulation results are provided.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present two different
approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for
risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample
of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan
Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We
present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With
the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including
more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the
in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in
random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other
hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and
we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both
in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a
more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the
economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical
services.
Abstract: Multimedia information availability has increased
dramatically with the advent of video broadcasting on handheld
devices. But with this availability comes problems of maintaining the
security of information that is displayed in public. ISMA Encryption
and Authentication (ISMACryp) is one of the chosen technologies for
service protection in DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting-
Handheld), the TV system for portable handheld devices. The
ISMACryp is encoded with H.264/AVC (advanced video coding),
while leaving all structural data as it is. Two modes of ISMACryp are
available; the CTR mode (Counter type) and CBC mode (Cipher
Block Chaining) mode. Both modes of ISMACryp are based on 128-
bit AES algorithm. AES algorithms are more complex and require
larger time for execution which is not suitable for real time
application like live TV. The proposed system aims to gain a deep
understanding of video data security on multimedia technologies and
to provide security for real time video applications using selective
encryption for H.264/AVC. Five level of security proposed in this
paper based on the content of NAL unit in Baseline Constrain profile
of H.264/AVC. The selective encryption in different levels provides
encryption of intra-prediction mode, residue data, inter-prediction
mode or motion vectors only. Experimental results shown in this
paper described that fifth level which is ISMACryp provide higher
level of security with more encryption time and the one level provide
lower level of security by encrypting only motion vectors with lower
execution time without compromise on compression and quality of
visual content. This encryption scheme with compression process
with low cost, and keeps the file format unchanged with some direct
operations supported. Simulation was being carried out in Matlab.
Abstract: In this paper variation of spot price and total profits of
the generating companies- through wholesale electricity trading are
discussed with and without Central Generating Stations (CGS) share
and seasonal variations are also considered. It demonstrates how
proper analysis of generators- efficiencies and capabilities, types of
generators owned, fuel costs, transmission losses and settling price
variation using the solutions of Optimal Power Flow (OPF), can
allow companies to maximize overall revenue. It illustrates how
solutions of OPF can be used to maximize companies- revenue under
different scenarios. And is also extended to computation of Available
Transfer Capability (ATC) is very important to the transmission
system security and market forecasting. From these results it is
observed that how crucial it is for companies to plan their daily
operations and is certainly useful in an online environment of
deregulated power system. In this paper above tasks are demonstrated
on 124 bus real-life Indian utility power system of Andhra Pradesh
State Grid and results have been presented and analyzed.
Abstract: The modern telecommunication industry demands
higher capacity networks with high data rate. Orthogonal frequency
division multiplexing (OFDM) is a promising technique for high data
rate wireless communications at reasonable complexity in wireless
channels. OFDM has been adopted for many types of wireless
systems like wireless local area networks such as IEEE 802.11a, and
digital audio/video broadcasting (DAB/DVB). The proposed research
focuses on a concatenated coding scheme that improve the
performance of OFDM based wireless communications. It uses a
Redundant Residue Number System (RRNS) code as the outer code
and a convolutional code as the inner code. Here, a direct conversion
of analog signal to residue domain is done to reduce the conversion
complexity using sigma-delta based parallel analog-to-residue
converter. The bit error rate (BER) performances of the proposed
system under different channel conditions are investigated. These
include the effect of additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN),
multipath delay spread, peak power clipping and frame start
synchronization error. The simulation results show that the proposed
RRNS-Convolutional concatenated coding (RCCC) scheme provides
significant improvement in the system performance by exploiting the
inherent properties of RRNS.
Abstract: This paper explores the effectiveness of machine
learning techniques in detecting firms that issue fraudulent financial
statements (FFS) and deals with the identification of factors
associated to FFS. To this end, a number of experiments have been
conducted using representative learning algorithms, which were
trained using a data set of 164 fraud and non-fraud Greek firms in the
recent period 2001-2002. The decision of which particular method to
choose is a complicated problem. A good alternative to choosing
only one method is to create a hybrid forecasting system
incorporating a number of possible solution methods as components
(an ensemble of classifiers). For this purpose, we have implemented
a hybrid decision support system that combines the representative
algorithms using a stacking variant methodology and achieves better
performance than any examined simple and ensemble method. To
sum up, this study indicates that the investigation of financial
information can be used in the identification of FFS and underline the
importance of financial ratios.
Abstract: Photovoltaic power generation forecasting is an
important task in renewable energy power system planning and
operating. This paper explores the application of neural networks
(NN) to study the design of photovoltaic power generation
forecasting systems for one week ahead using weather databases
include the global irradiance, and temperature of Ghardaia city
(south of Algeria) using a data acquisition system. Simulations were
run and the results are discussed showing that neural networks
Technique is capable to decrease the photovoltaic power generation
forecasting error.
Abstract: This paper deals with the application of a well-known neural network technique, multilayer back-propagation (BP) neural network, in financial data mining. A modified neural network forecasting model is presented, and an intelligent mining system is developed. The system can forecast the buying and selling signs according to the prediction of future trends to stock market, and provide decision-making for stock investors. The simulation result of seven years to Shanghai Composite Index shows that the return achieved by this mining system is about three times as large as that achieved by the buy and hold strategy, so it is advantageous to apply neural networks to forecast financial time series, the different investors could benefit from it.
Abstract: The coverage probability and range of IEEE 802.16
systems depend on different wireless scenarios. Evaluating the
performance of IEEE 802.16 systems over Stanford University
Interim (SUI) channels is suggested by IEEE 802.16 specifications.
In order to derive an effective method for forecasting the coverage
probability and range, this study uses the SUI channel model to
analyze the coverage probability with Rayleigh fading for an IEEE
802.16 system. The BER of the IEEE 802.16 system is shown in the
simulation results. Then, the maximum allowed path loss can be
calculated and substituted into the coverage analysis. Therefore,
simulation results show the coverage range with and without
Rayleigh fading.
Abstract: In this paper, we consider a multi user multiple input
multiple output (MU-MIMO) based cooperative reporting system for
cognitive radio network. In the reporting network, the secondary
users forward the primary user data to the common fusion center
(FC). The FC is equipped with linear equalizers and an energy
detector to make the decision about the spectrum. The primary user
data are considered to be a digital video broadcasting - terrestrial
(DVB-T) signal. The sensing channel and the reporting channel are
assumed to be an additive white Gaussian noise and an independent
identically distributed Raleigh fading respectively. We analyzed the
detection probability of MU-MIMO system with linear equalizers and
arrived at the closed form expression for average detection
probability. Also the system performance is investigated under
various MIMO scenarios through Monte Carlo simulations.
Abstract: In the Lost Foam Casting process, melting point
temperature of metal, as well as volume and rate of the foam
degradation have significant effect on the mold filling pattern.
Therefore, gas generation capacity and gas gap length are two
important parameters for modeling of mold filling time of the lost
foam casting processes. In this paper, the gas gap length at the liquidfoam
interface for a low melting point (aluminum) alloy and a high
melting point (Carbon-steel) alloy are investigated by the
photography technique. Results of the photography technique
indicated, that the gas gap length and the mold filling time are
increased with increased coating thickness and density of the foam.
The Gas gap lengths measured in aluminum and Carbon-steel,
depend on the foam density, and were approximately 4-5 and 25-60
mm, respectively. By using a new system, the gas generation
capacity for the aluminum and steel was measured. The gas
generation capacity measurements indicated that gas generation in
the Aluminum and Carbon-steel lost foam casting was about 50 CC/g
and 3200 CC/g polystyrene, respectively.
Abstract: Model Predictive Control has been previously applied
to supply chain problems with promising results; however hitherto
proposed systems possessed no information on future demand. A
forecasting methodology will surely promote the efficiency of
control actions by providing insight on the future. A complete supply
chain management framework that is based on Model Predictive
Control (MPC) and Time Series Forecasting will be presented in this
paper. The proposed framework will be tested on industrial data in
order to assess the efficiency of the method and the impact of
forecast accuracy on overall control performance of the supply chain.
To this end, forecasting methodologies with different characteristics
will be implemented on test data to generate forecasts that will serve
as input to the Model Predictive Control module.
Abstract: Global competition is tightening and companies have
to think how to remain competitive. The main aim of this paper is to
discuss how Finnish foundries will remain competitive. To fulfil the
aim, we conducted interviews in nine companies using castings and
analysed buyer–supplier relationships, current competitive
advantages of Finnish foundries and customer perspectives on how
Finnish foundries remain competitive. We found that the customerfoundry
relationship is still closer to traditional subcontracting than
partnering and general image of foundries is negative. Current
competitive advantages of Finnish foundries include designing
cooperation, proximity and flexibility. Casting users state that
Finnish foundries should sell their know-how and services instead of
their capacity, concentrate on prototype, single and short series
castings and supply ready-to-install cast components directly to
customers- assembly lines.
Abstract: Recycling of aluminum alloys often decrease fluidity,
consequently influence the castability of the alloy. In this study, the
fluidity of Al-Zn alloys, such as the standard A713 alloy with and
without scrap addition has been investigated. The scrap added was
comprised of contaminated alloy turning chips. Fluidity
measurements were performed with double spiral fluidity test
consisting of gravity casting of double spirals in green sand moulds
with good reproducibility. The influence of recycled alloy on fluidity
has been compared with that of the virgin alloy and the results
showed that the fluidity decreased with the increase in recycled alloy
at minimum pouring temperatures. Interestingly, an appreciable
improvement in the fluidity was observed at maximum pouring
temperature, especially for coated spirals.
Abstract: The statistical process control (SPC) is one of the most powerful tools developed to assist ineffective control of quality, involves collecting, organizing and interpreting data during production. This article aims to show how the use of CEP industries can control and continuously improve product quality through monitoring of production that can detect deviations of parameters representing the process by reducing the amount of off-specification products and thus the costs of production. This study aimed to conduct a technological forecasting in order to characterize the research being done related to the CEP. The survey was conducted in the databases Spacenet, WIPO and the National Institute of Industrial Property (INPI). Among the largest are the United States depositors and deposits via PCT, the classification section that was presented in greater abundance to F.
Abstract: Prior research has not effectively investigated how the
profitability of Chinese branches affect FDIs in China [1, 2], so this
study for the first time incorporates realistic earnings information
to systematically investigate effects of innovation, imitation, and
profit factors of FDI diffusions from Taiwan to China. Our nonlinear
least square (NLS) model, which incorporates earnings factors,
forms a nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE) in numerical
simulation programs. The model parameters are obtained through
a genetic algorithms (GA) technique and then optimized with the
collected data for the best accuracy. Particularly, Taiwanese regulatory
FDI restrictions are also considered in our modified model to meet
the realistic conditions. To validate the model-s effectiveness, this
investigation compares the prediction accuracy of modified model
with the conventional diffusion model, which does not take account
of the profitability factors.
The results clearly demonstrate the internal influence to be positive,
as early FDI adopters- consistent praises of FDI attract potential firms
to make the same move. The former erects a behavior model for the
latter to imitate their foreign investment decision. Particularly, the
results of modified diffusion models show that the earnings from
Chinese branches are positively related to the internal influence. In
general, the imitating tendency of potential consumers is substantially
hindered by the losses in the Chinese branches, and these firms would
invest less into China. The FDI inflow extension depends on earnings
of Chinese branches, and companies will adjust their FDI strategies
based on the returns. Since this research has proved that earning is
an influential factor on FDI dynamics, our revised model explicitly
performs superior in prediction ability than conventional diffusion
model.