Abstract: Forecasting the values of the indicators, which
characterize the effectiveness of performance of organizations is of
great importance for their successful development. Such forecasting
is necessary in order to assess the current state and to foresee future
developments, so that measures to improve the organization-s
activity could be undertaken in time. The article presents an
overview of the applied mathematical and statistical methods for
developing forecasts. Special attention is paid to artificial neural
networks as a forecasting tool. Their strengths and weaknesses are
analyzed and a synopsis is made of the application of artificial neural
networks in the field of forecasting of the values of different
education efficiency indicators. A method of evaluation of the
activity of universities using the Balanced Scorecard is proposed and
Key Performance Indicators for assessment of e-learning are
selected. Resulting indicators for the evaluation of efficiency of the
activity are proposed. An artificial neural network is constructed and
applied in the forecasting of the values of indicators for e-learning
efficiency on the basis of the KPI values.
Abstract: This paper presents an exact pruning algorithm with
adaptive pruning interval for general dynamic neural networks
(GDNN). GDNNs are artificial neural networks with internal dynamics.
All layers have feedback connections with time delays to the
same and to all other layers. The structure of the plant is unknown, so
the identification process is started with a larger network architecture
than necessary. During parameter optimization with the Levenberg-
Marquardt (LM) algorithm irrelevant weights of the dynamic neural
network are deleted in order to find a model for the plant as
simple as possible. The weights to be pruned are found by direct
evaluation of the training data within a sliding time window. The
influence of pruning on the identification system depends on the
network architecture at pruning time and the selected weight to be
deleted. As the architecture of the model is changed drastically during
the identification and pruning process, it is suggested to adapt the
pruning interval online. Two system identification examples show
the architecture selection ability of the proposed pruning approach.
Abstract: This paper presents an application of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to forecast actual cost of a project based on the earned value management system (EVMS). For this purpose, some projects randomly selected based on the standard data set , and it is produced necessary progress data such as actual cost ,actual percent complete , baseline cost and percent complete for five periods of project. Then an ANN with five inputs and five outputs and one hidden layer is trained to produce forecasted actual costs. The comparison between real and forecasted data show better performance based on the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) criterion. This approach could be applicable to better forecasting the project cost and result in decreasing the risk of project cost overrun, and therefore it is beneficial for planning preventive actions.
Abstract: Earthquakes are natural phenomena that occur with influence of a lot of parameters such as seismic activity, changing in the ground waters' motion, changing in the water-s temperature, etc. On the other hand, the radon gas concentrations in soil vary as nonlinear generally with earthquakes. Continuous measurement of the soil radon gas is very important for determination of characteristic of the seismic activity. The radon gas changes as continuous with strain occurring within the Earth-s surface during an earthquake and effects from the physical and the chemical processes such as soil structure, soil permeability, soil temperature, the barometric pressure, etc. Therefore, at the modeling researches are notsufficient to knowthe concentration ofradon gas. In this research, we determined relationships between radon emissions based on the environmental parameters and earthquakes occurring along the East Anatolian Fault Zone (EAFZ), Turkiye and predicted magnitudes of some earthquakes with the artificial neural network (ANN) model.
Abstract: This study deals with a multi-criteria optimization
problem which has been transformed into a single objective
optimization problem using Response Surface Methodology (RSM),
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Grey Relational Analyses
(GRA) approach. Grey-RSM and Grey-ANN are hybrid techniques
which can be used for solving multi-criteria optimization problem.
There have been two main purposes of this research as follows.
1. To determine optimum and robust fiber dyeing process
conditions by using RSM and ANN based on GRA,
2. To obtain the best suitable model by comparing models
developed by different methodologies.
The design variables for fiber dyeing process in textile are
temperature, time, softener, anti-static, material quantity, pH,
retarder, and dispergator. The quality characteristics to be evaluated
are nominal color consistency of fiber, maximum strength of fiber,
minimum color of dyeing solution. GRA-RSM with exact level
value, GRA-RSM with interval level value and GRA-ANN models
were compared based on GRA output value and MSE (Mean Square
Error) performance measurement of outputs with each other. As a
result, GRA-ANN with interval value model seems to be suitable
reducing the variation of dyeing process for GRA output value of the
model.
Abstract: In this paper back-propagation artificial neural
network (BPANN) is employed to predict the limiting drawing ratio
(LDR) of the deep drawing process. To prepare a training set for
BPANN, some finite element simulations were carried out. die and
punch radius, die arc radius, friction coefficient, thickness, yield
strength of sheet and strain hardening exponent were used as the
input data and the LDR as the specified output used in the training of
neural network. As a result of the specified parameters, the program
will be able to estimate the LDR for any new given condition.
Comparing FEM and BPANN results, an acceptable correlation was
found.
Abstract: Least Development Countries (LDC) like
Bangladesh, whose 25% revenue earning is achieved from Textile
export, requires producing less defective textile for minimizing
production cost and time. Inspection processes done on these
industries are mostly manual and time consuming. To reduce error
on identifying fabric defects requires more automotive and
accurate inspection process. Considering this lacking, this research
implements a Textile Defect Recognizer which uses computer
vision methodology with the combination of multi-layer neural
networks to identify four classifications of textile defects. The
recognizer, suitable for LDC countries, identifies the fabric defects
within economical cost and produces less error prone inspection
system in real time. In order to generate input set for the neural
network, primarily the recognizer captures digital fabric images by
image acquisition device and converts the RGB images into binary
images by restoration process and local threshold techniques.
Later, the output of the processed image, the area of the faulty
portion, the number of objects of the image and the sharp factor of
the image, are feed backed as an input layer to the neural network
which uses back propagation algorithm to compute the weighted
factors and generates the desired classifications of defects as an
output.
Abstract: Home Automation is a field that, among other
subjects, is concerned with the comfort, security and energy
requirements of private homes. The configuration of automatic
functions in this type of houses is not always simple to its inhabitants
requiring the initial setup and regular adjustments. In this work, the
ubiquitous computing system vision is used, where the users- action
patterns are captured, recorded and used to create the contextawareness
that allows the self-configuration of the home automation
system. The system will try to free the users from setup adjustments
as the home tries to adapt to its inhabitants- real habits. In this paper
it is described a completely automated process to determine the light
state and act on them, taking in account the users- daily habits.
Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is used as a pattern recognition
method, classifying for each moment the light state. The work
presented uses data from a real house where a family is actually
living.
Abstract: The performance of sensor-less controlled induction
motor drive depends on the accuracy of the estimated speed.
Conventional estimation techniques being mathematically complex
require more execution time resulting in poor dynamic response. The
nonlinear mapping capability and powerful learning algorithms of
neural network provides a promising alternative for on-line speed
estimation. The on-line speed estimator requires the NN model to be
accurate, simpler in design, structurally compact and computationally
less complex to ensure faster execution and effective control in real
time implementation. This in turn to a large extent depends on the
type of Neural Architecture. This paper investigates three types of
neural architectures for on-line speed estimation and their
performance is compared in terms of accuracy, structural
compactness, computational complexity and execution time. The
suitable neural architecture for on-line speed estimation is identified
and the promising results obtained are presented.
Abstract: Investigation of soil properties like Cation Exchange
Capacity (CEC) plays important roles in study of environmental
reaserches as the spatial and temporal variability of this property
have been led to development of indirect methods in estimation of
this soil characteristic. Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) provide an
alternative by estimating soil parameters from more readily available
soil data. 70 soil samples were collected from different horizons of
15 soil profiles located in the Ziaran region, Qazvin province, Iran.
Then, multivariate regression and neural network model (feedforward
back propagation network) were employed to develop a
pedotransfer function for predicting soil parameter using easily
measurable characteristics of clay and organic carbon. The
performance of the multivariate regression and neural network model
was evaluated using a test data set. In order to evaluate the models,
root mean square error (RMSE) was used. The value of RMSE and
R2 derived by ANN model for CEC were 0.47 and 0.94 respectively,
while these parameters for multivariate regression model were 0.65
and 0.88 respectively. Results showed that artificial neural network
with seven neurons in hidden layer had better performance in
predicting soil cation exchange capacity than multivariate regression.
Abstract: In recent years, real estate prediction or valuation has
been a topic of discussion in many developed countries. Improper
hype created by investors leads to fluctuating prices of real estate,
affecting many consumers to purchase their own homes. Therefore,
scholars from various countries have conducted research in real estate
valuation and prediction. With the back-propagation neural network
that has been popular in recent years and the orthogonal array in the
Taguchi method, this study aimed to find the optimal parameter
combination at different levels of orthogonal array after the system
presented different parameter combinations, so that the artificial
neural network obtained the most accurate results. The experimental
results also demonstrated that the method presented in the study had a
better result than traditional machine learning. Finally, it also showed
that the model proposed in this study had the optimal predictive effect,
and could significantly reduce the cost of time in simulation operation.
The best predictive results could be found with a fewer number of
experiments more efficiently. Thus users could predict a real estate
transaction price that is not far from the current actual prices.
Abstract: This paper presents performance analysis of the
Evolutionary Programming-Artificial Neural Network (EPANN)
based technique to optimize the architecture and training parameters
of a one-hidden layer feedforward ANN model for the prediction of
energy output from a grid connected photovoltaic system. The ANN
utilizes solar radiation and ambient temperature as its inputs while the
output is the total watt-hour energy produced from the grid-connected
PV system. EP is used to optimize the regression performance of the
ANN model by determining the optimum values for the number of
nodes in the hidden layer as well as the optimal momentum rate and
learning rate for the training. The EPANN model is tested using two
types of transfer function for the hidden layer, namely the tangent
sigmoid and logarithmic sigmoid. The best transfer function, neural
topology and learning parameters were selected based on the highest
regression performance obtained during the ANN training and testing
process. It is observed that the best transfer function configuration for
the prediction model is [logarithmic sigmoid, purely linear].
Abstract: This article simulates the wind generator set which has
two fault bearing collar rail destruction and the gear box oil leak fault.
The electric current signal which produced by the generator, We use
Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) as well as Fast Fourier
Transform (FFT) obtains the frequency range-s signal figure and
characteristic value. The last step is use a kind of Artificial Neural
Network (ANN) classifies which determination fault signal's type and
reason. The ANN purpose of the automatic identification wind
generator set fault..
Abstract: A set of Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based methods
for the design of an effective system of speech recognition of
numerals of Assamese language captured under varied recording
conditions and moods is presented here. The work is related to
the formulation of several ANN models configured to use Linear
Predictive Code (LPC), Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and
other features to tackle mood and gender variations uttering numbers
as part of an Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) system in
Assamese. The ANN models are designed using a combination of
Self Organizing Map (SOM) and Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP)
constituting a Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) block trained in a
cooperative environment to handle male and female speech samples
of numerals of Assamese- a language spoken by a sizable population
in the North-Eastern part of India. The work provides a comparative
evaluation of several such combinations while subjected to handle
speech samples with gender based differences captured by a microphone
in four different conditions viz. noiseless, noise mixed, stressed
and stress-free.
Abstract: Temperature is one of the most principle factors affects aquaculture system. It can cause stress and mortality or superior environment for growth and reproduction. This paper presents the control of pond water temperature using artificial intelligence technique. The water temperature is very important parameter for shrimp growth. The required temperature for optimal growth is 34oC, if temperature increase up to 38oC it cause death of the shrimp, so it is important to control water temperature. Solar thermal water heating system is designed to supply an aquaculture pond with the required hot water in Mersa Matruh in Egypt. Neural networks are massively parallel processors that have the ability to learn patterns through a training experience. Because of this feature, they are often well suited for modeling complex and non-linear processes such as those commonly found in the heating system. Artificial neural network is proposed to control water temperature due to Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques are becoming useful as alternate approaches to conventional techniques. They have been used to solve complicated practical problems. Moreover this paper introduces a complete mathematical modeling and MATLAB SIMULINK model for the aquaculture system. The simulation results indicate that, the control unit success in keeping water temperature constant at the desired temperature by controlling the hot water flow rate.
Abstract: Optimization and control of reactive power
distribution in the power systems leads to the better operation of the
reactive power resources. Reactive power control reduces
considerably the power losses and effective loads and improves the
power factor of the power systems. Another important reason of the
reactive power control is improving the voltage profile of the power
system. In this paper, voltage and reactive power control using
Neural Network techniques have been applied to the 33 shines-
Tehran Electric Company. In this suggested ANN, the voltages of PQ
shines have been considered as the input of the ANN. Also, the
generators voltages, tap transformers and shunt compensators have
been considered as the output of ANN. Results of this techniques
have been compared with the Linear Programming. Minimization of
the transmission line power losses has been considered as the
objective function of the linear programming technique. The
comparison of the results of the ANN technique with the LP shows
that the ANN technique improves the precision and reduces the
computation time. ANN technique also has a simple structure and
this causes to use the operator experience.
Abstract: Medical applications are among the most impactful
areas of microrobotics. The ultimate goal of medical microrobots is
to reach currently inaccessible areas of the human body and carry out
a host of complex operations such as minimally invasive surgery
(MIS), highly localized drug delivery, and screening for diseases at
their very early stages. Miniature, safe and efficient propulsion
systems hold the key to maturing this technology but they pose
significant challenges. A new type of propulsion developed recently,
uses multi-flagella architecture inspired by the motility mechanism of
prokaryotic microorganisms. There is a lack of efficient methods for
designing this type of propulsion system. The goal of this paper is to
overcome the lack and this way, a numerical strategy is proposed to
design multi-flagella propulsion systems. The strategy is based on the
implementation of the regularized stokeslet and rotlet theory, RFT
theory and new approach of “local corrected velocity". The effects of
shape parameters and angular velocities of each flagellum on overall
flow field and on the robot net forces and moments are considered.
Then a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network is designed
and employed to adjust the angular velocities of the motors for
propulsion control. The proposed method applied successfully on a
sample configuration and useful demonstrative results is obtained.
Abstract: Horizontal wells are proven to be better producers
because they can be extended for a long distance in the pay zone.
Engineers have the technical means to forecast the well productivity
for a given horizontal length. However, experiences have shown that
the actual production rate is often significantly less than that of
forecasted. It is a difficult task, if not impossible to identify the real
reason why a horizontal well is not producing what was forecasted.
Often the source of problem lies in the drilling of horizontal section
such as permeability reduction in the pay zone due to mud invasion
or snaky well patterns created during drilling. Although drillers aim
to drill a constant inclination hole in the pay zone, the more frequent
outcome is a sinusoidal wellbore trajectory. The two factors, which
play an important role in wellbore tortuosity, are the inclination and
side force at bit. A constant inclination horizontal well can only be
drilled if the bit face is maintained perpendicular to longitudinal axis
of bottom hole assembly (BHA) while keeping the side force nil at
the bit. This approach assumes that there exists no formation force at
bit. Hence, an appropriate BHA can be designed if bit side force and
bit tilt are determined accurately. The Artificial Neural Network
(ANN) is superior to existing analytical techniques. In this study, the
neural networks have been employed as a general approximation tool
for estimation of the bit side forces. A number of samples are
analyzed with ANN for parameters of bit side force and the results
are compared with exact analysis. Back Propagation Neural network
(BPN) is used to approximation of bit side forces. Resultant low
relative error value of the test indicates the usability of the BPN in
this area.
Abstract: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been used successfully in many scientific, industrial and business domains as a method for extracting knowledge from vast amounts of data. However the use of ANN techniques in the sporting domain has been limited. In professional sport, data is stored on many aspects of teams, games, training and players. Sporting organisations have begun to realise that there is a wealth of untapped knowledge contained in the data and there is great interest in techniques to utilise this data. This study will use player data from the elite Australian Football League (AFL) competition to train and test ANNs with the aim to predict the onset of injuries. The results demonstrate that an accuracy of 82.9% was achieved by the ANNs’ predictions across all examples with 94.5% of all injuries correctly predicted. These initial findings suggest that ANNs may have the potential to assist sporting clubs in the prediction of injuries.
Abstract: Cosmic showers, from their places of origin in space,
after entering earth generate secondary particles called Extensive Air
Shower (EAS). Detection and analysis of EAS and similar High
Energy Particle Showers involve a plethora of experimental setups
with certain constraints for which soft-computational tools like
Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s can be adopted. The optimality
of ANN classifiers can be enhanced further by the use of Multiple
Classifier System (MCS) and certain data - dimension reduction
techniques. This work describes the performance of certain data
dimension reduction techniques like Principal Component Analysis
(PCA), Independent Component Analysis (ICA) and Self Organizing
Map (SOM) approximators for application with an MCS formed
using Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), Recurrent Neural Network
(RNN) and Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN). The data inputs are
obtained from an array of detectors placed in a circular arrangement
resembling a practical detector grid which have a higher dimension
and greater correlation among themselves. The PCA, ICA and SOM
blocks reduce the correlation and generate a form suitable for real
time practical applications for prediction of primary energy and
location of EAS from density values captured using detectors in a
circular grid.