Abstract: In the wake of recent disasters happening around the world such as earthquake in Italy (January, 2017); hurricanes in the United States (US) (September 2016 and September 2017); and compounding disasters in Haiti (September 2010 and September 2016); to our best knowledge, never has the world seen the need to work on preemptive rather than reactionary measures to salvage this situation than now. Tornadoes are natural hazards that mostly affect mid-western and central states in the US. Tornadoes, like all natural hazards such as hurricanes, earthquakes, floods and others, are very destructive and result in massive destruction to homes, cause billions of dollars in damage and claims many lives. Healthcare facilities in general are vulnerable to disasters, and therefore, the safety of patients, health workers and those who come in to seek shelter should be a priority. The focus of this study is to assess disaster management measures instituted by healthcare facilities. Thus, the sole aim of the study is to examine the vulnerabilities and the design of safe spaces in healthcare facilities in Central US. Objectives that guide the study are to primarily identify the impacts of tornadoes in hospitals and to assess the structural design or specifications of safe spaces. St. John’s Regional Medical Center, now Mercy Hospital in Joplin, is used as a case study. Preliminary results show that the lateral base shear of the proposed design to be 684.24 ton (1508.49kip) for the safe space. Findings from this work will be used to make recommendations about the design of safe spaces for health care facilities in Central US.
Abstract: The expansion of large scale coal mining into forest areas is a potential hazard for the local biodiversity and wildlife. The objective of this study is to provide a picture of the threat that coal mining poses to the forests of the East Bokaro landscape. The vulnerable forest areas at risk have been assessed and the priority areas for conservation have been presented. The forested areas at risk in the current scenario have been assessed and compared with the past conditions using classification and buffer based overlay approach. Forest vulnerability has been assessed using an analytical framework based on systematic indicators and composite vulnerability index values. The results indicate that more than 4 km2 of forests have been lost from 1973 to 2016. Large patches of forests have been diverted for coal mining projects. Forests in the northern part of the coal field within 1-3 km radius around the coal mines are at immediate risk. The original contiguous forests have been converted into fragmented and degraded forest patches. Most of the collieries are located within or very close to the forests thus threatening the biodiversity and hydrology of the surrounding regions. Based on the vulnerability values estimated, it was concluded that more than 90% of the forested grids in East Bokaro are highly vulnerable to mining. The forests in the sub-districts of Bermo and Chandrapura have been identified as the most vulnerable to coal mining activities. This case study would add to the capacity of the forest managers and mine managers to address the risk and vulnerability of forests at a small landscape level in order to achieve sustainable development.
Abstract: This paper examines vulnerability assessment of water resources in a semi-arid basin using the 4-step approach. The vulnerability assessment framework is developed to study the water resources vulnerability which includes the creation of GIS-based vulnerability maps. These maps represent the spatial variability of the vulnerability index. This paper introduces the 4-step approach to assess vulnerability that incorporates a new set of indicators. The approach is demonstrated using a framework composed of a precipitation data for (1975–2010) period, temperature data for (1965–2010) period, hydrological model outputs and the water resources GIS data base. The vulnerability assessment is a function of three components such as exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. The current water resources vulnerability is assessed using GIS based spatio-temporal information. Rainfall Coefficient of Variation, monsoon onset and end date, rainy days, seasonality indices, temperature are selected for the criterion ‘exposure’. Water yield, ground water recharge, evapotranspiration (ET) are selected for the criterion ‘sensitivity’. Type of irrigation and storage structures are selected for the criterion ‘Adaptive capacity’. These indicators were mapped and integrated in GIS environment using overlay analysis. The five sub-basins, namely Arjunanadhi, Kousiganadhi, Sindapalli-Uppodai and Vallampatti Odai, fall under medium vulnerability profile, which indicates that the basin is under moderate stress of water resources. The paper also explores prioritization of sub-basinwise adaptation strategies to climate change based on the vulnerability indices.
Abstract: One of the important impacts of climate change is the sea level rise. Turkey is a peninsula, so the coastal areas of the country are threatened by the problem of sea level rise. Therefore, the urbanized coastal areas are highly vulnerable to climate change. At the aim of enhancing spatial resilience of urbanized areas, this question arises: What should be the priority intervention subject in the urban planning process for a given city. To answer this question, by focusing on the problem of sea level rise, this study aims to determine spatial vulnerability typologies and levels of Turkey coastal cities based on morphological, physical and social characteristics. As a method, spatial vulnerability of coastal cities is determined by two steps as level and type. Firstly, physical structure, morphological structure and social structure were examined in determining spatial vulnerability levels. By determining these levels, most vulnerable areas were revealed as a priority in adaptation studies. Secondly, all parameters are also used to determine spatial typologies. Typologies are determined for coastal cities in order to use as a base for urban planning studies. Adaptation to climate change is crucial for developing countries like Turkey so, this methodology and created typologies could be a guide for urban planners as spatial directors and an example for other developing countries in the context of adaptation to climate change. The results demonstrate that the urban settlements located on the coasts of the Marmara Sea, the Aegean Sea and the Mediterranean respectively, are more vulnerable than the cities located on the Black Sea’s coasts to sea level rise.
Abstract: This paper presents a methodology to develop fragility curves for shallow tunnels so as to describe a relationship between seismic hazard and tunnel vulnerability. Emphasis is given to the influence of surrounding soil material properties because the dynamic behaviour of the tunnel mostly depends on it. Four ground properties of soils ranging from stiff to soft soils are selected. A 3D nonlinear time history analysis is used to evaluate the seismic response of the tunnel when subjected to five real earthquake ground intensities. The derived curves show the future probabilistic performance of the tunnels based on the predicted level of damage states corresponding to the peak ground acceleration. A comparison of the obtained results with the previous literature is provided to validate the reliability of the proposed fragility curves. Results show the significant role of soil properties and input motions in evaluating the seismic performance and response of shallow tunnels.
Abstract: High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.
Abstract: Intrusion Detection Systems are an essential tool for
network security infrastructure. However, IDSs have a serious
problem which is the generating of massive number of alerts, most of
them are false positive ones which can hide true alerts and make the
analyst confused to analyze the right alerts for report the true attacks.
The purpose behind this paper is to present a formalism model to
perform correlation engine by the reduction of false positive alerts
basing on vulnerability contextual information. For that, we propose
a formalism model based on non-monotonic JClassicδє description
logic augmented with a default (δ) and an exception (є) operator that
allows a dynamic inference according to contextual information.
Abstract: Climate change remains a challenging matter for the human and the built environment in the 21st century, where the need to consider adaptation to climate change in the development process is paramount. However, there remains a lack of information regarding how we should prepare responses to this issue, such as through developing organized and sophisticated tools enabling the adaptation process. This study aims to build a systematic framework approach to investigate the potentials that Neighborhood Sustainability Assessment tools (NSA) might offer in enabling both the analysis of the emerging adaptive capacity to climate change. The analysis of the framework presented in this paper aims to discuss this issue in three main phases. The first part attempts to link sustainability and climate change, in the context of adaptive capacity. It is argued that in deciding to promote sustainability in the context of climate change, both the resilience and vulnerability processes become central. However, there is still a gap in the current literature regarding how the sustainable development process can respond to climate change. As well as how the resilience of practical strategies might be evaluated. It is suggested that the integration of the sustainability assessment processes with both the resilience thinking process, and vulnerability might provide important components for addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. A critical review of existing literature is presented illustrating the current lack of work in this field, integrating these three concepts in the context of addressing the adaptive capacity to climate change. The second part aims to identify the most appropriate scale at which to address the built environment for the climate change adaptation. It is suggested that the neighborhood scale can be considered as more suitable than either the building or urban scales. It then presents the example of NSAs, and discusses the need to explore their potential role in promoting the adaptive capacity to climate change. The third part of the framework presents a comparison among three example NSAs, BREEAM Communities, LEED-ND, and CASBEE-UD. These three tools have been selected as the most developed and comprehensive assessment tools that are currently available for the neighborhood scale. This study concludes that NSAs are likely to present the basis for an organized framework to address the practical process for analyzing and yet promoting Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change. It is further argued that vulnerability (exposure & sensitivity) and resilience (Interdependence & Recovery) form essential aspects to be addressed in the future assessment of NSA’s capability to adapt to both short and long term climate change impacts. Finally, it is acknowledged that further work is now required to understand impact assessment in terms of the range of physical sectors (Water, Energy, Transportation, Building, Land Use and Ecosystems), Actor and stakeholder engagement as well as a detailed evaluation of the NSA indicators, together with a barriers diagnosis process.
Abstract: Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.
Abstract: With the increasing dependence of countries on the
critical infrastructure, it increases their vulnerability. Big threat is
primarily in the human factor (personnel of the critical infrastructure)
and in terrorist attacks. It emphasizes the development of
methodology for searching of weak points and their subsequent
elimination. This article discusses methods for the analysis of safety
in the objects of critical infrastructure. It also contains proposal for
methodology for training employees of security services in the
objects of the critical infrastructure and developing scenarios of
attacks on selected objects of the critical infrastructure.
Abstract: Most of the existing video streaming protocols
provide video services without considering security aspects in
decentralized mobile ad-hoc networks. The security policies adapted
to the currently existing non-streaming protocols, do not comply with
the live video streaming protocols resulting in considerable
vulnerability, high bandwidth consumption and unreliability which
cause severe security threats, low bandwidth and error prone
transmission respectively in video streaming applications. Therefore
a synergized methodology is required to reduce vulnerability and
bandwidth consumption, and enhance reliability in the video
streaming applications in MANET. To ensure the security measures
with reduced bandwidth consumption and improve reliability of the
video streaming applications, a Secure Low-bandwidth Video
Streaming through Reliable Multipath Propagation (SLVRMP)
protocol architecture has been proposed by incorporating the two
algorithms namely Secure Low-bandwidth Video Streaming
Algorithm and Reliable Secure Multipath Propagation Algorithm
using Layered Video Coding in non-overlapping zone routing
network topology. The performances of the proposed system are
compared to those of the other existing secure multipath protocols
Sec-MR, SPREAD using NS 2.34 and the simulation results show
that the performances of the proposed system get considerably
improved.
Abstract: The aim of the current study was to develop and
validate a Response to Stressful Situations Scale (RSSS) for the
Portuguese population. This scale assesses the degree of stress
experienced in scenarios that can constitute positive, negative and
more neutral stressors, and also describes the physiological,
emotional and behavioral reactions to those events according to their
intensity. These scenarios include typical stressor scenarios relevant
to patients with schizophrenia, which are currently absent from most
scales, assessing specific risks that these stressors may bring on
subjects, which may prove useful in non-clinical and clinical
populations (i.e. Patients with mood or anxiety disorders,
schizophrenia). Results from Principal Components Analysis and
Confirmatory Factor Analysis of two adult samples from general
population allowed to confirm a three-factor model with good fit
indices: χ2 (144)= 370.211, p = 0.000; GFI = 0.928; CFI = 0.927; TLI =
0.914, RMSEA = 0.055, P(rmsea ≤0.005) = .096; PCFI = .781.
Further data analysis of the scale revealed that RSSS is an adequate
assessment tool of stress response in adults to be used in further
research and clinical settings, with good psychometric characteristics,
adequate divergent and convergent validity, good temporal stability
and high internal consistency.
Abstract: Farming households faces lots of disaster which contribute to endemic poverty. Anticipated increases in extreme weather events will exacerbate this. Primary data was administered to farming household using multi-stage random sampling technique. The result of the analysis shows that majority of the respondents (69.9%) are male, have mean household size, years of formal education and age of 5±1.14, 6±3.41, and 51.06±10.43 respectively. The major (48.9%) type of disaster experienced is flooding. Major coping mechanism adopted is sourcing for support from family and friends. Age, education, experience, access to extension agent, and mitigation control method contribute significantly to vulnerability to disaster. The major adaptation method (62.3%) is construction of drainage.
The study revealed that the coping mechanisms employed may become less effective as increasingly fragile livelihood systems struggle to withstand disaster shocks. Thus there is need for training of the farmers on measures to adapt to mitigate the shock from disasters
Abstract: Child care policy must be a priority area of public authorities in any country. This study investigates child care policy in Kazakhstan in accordance with the current position of children and laws. The results show that Kazakhstan policy in this sphere needs more systematic model including state economic and social measures, parental involvement and role of non-government organizations.
Abstract: Remote sensing image processing, spatial data analysis through GIS approach, and analytical hierarchy process were introduced in this study for assessing the vulnerability area and inundation area due to tsunami hazard in the area of Rikuzentakata, Iwate Prefecture, Japan. Appropriate input parameters were derived from GSI DEM data, ALOS AVNIR-2, and field data. We used the parameters of elevation, slope, shoreline distance, and vegetation density. Five classes of vulnerability were defined and weighted via pairwise comparison matrix. The assessment results described that 14.35km2 of the study area was under tsunami vulnerability zone. Inundation areas are those of high and slightly high vulnerability. The farthest area reached by a tsunami was about 7.50km from the shoreline and shows that rivers act as flooding strips that transport tsunami waves into the hinterland. This study can be used for determining a priority for land-use planning in the scope of tsunami hazard risk management.
Abstract: Climate change causes severe effects on natural
habitats, especially wetlands. These challenges require the adaptation
of their management to probable effects of climate change. A
compilation of necessary changes in land management was collected
in a Hungarian area being both national park and Natura 2000 SAC
and SCI site in favor of increasing the resilience and reducing
vulnerability. Several factors, such as ecological aspects, nature
conservation and climatic adaptation should be combined with social
and economic factors during the process of developing climate
change adapted management on vulnerable wetlands. Planning
adaptive management should be determined by a priority order of
conservation aims and evaluation of factors at the determined
planning unit. Mowing techniques, frequency and exact date should
be observed as well as grazing species and their breed, due to
different grazing, group forming and trampling habits. Integrating
landscape history and historical land development into the planning
process is essential.
Abstract: Several models of vulnerability assessment have been proposed. The selection of one of these models depends on the objectives of the study. The classical methodologies for seismic vulnerability analysis, as a part of seismic risk analysis, have been formulated with statistical criteria based on a rapid observation. The information relating to the buildings performance is statistically elaborated. In this paper, we use the European Macroseismic Scale EMS-98 to define the relationship between damage and macroseismic intensity to assess the seismic vulnerability. Applying to Algiers area, the first step is to identify building typologies and to assign vulnerability classes. In the second step, damages are investigated according to EMS-98.
Abstract: This study aims to assess the vulnerability and risk of
the coastal areas of Taijiang to abnormal oceanographic phenomena.
In addition, this study aims to investigate and collect data regarding
the disaster losses, land utilization, and other social, economic, and
environmental issues in these coastal areas to construct a coastal
vulnerability and risk map based on the obtained climate-change risk
assessment results. Considering the indexes of the three coastal
vulnerability dimensions, namely, man-made facilities, environmental
geography, and social economy, this study adopted the equal
weighting process and Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze the
vulnerability of these coastal areas to disasters caused by climatic
changes. Among the areas with high coastal vulnerability to climatic
changes, three towns had the highest coastal vulnerability and four had
the highest relative vulnerability. Areas with lower disaster risks were
found to be increasingly vulnerable to disasters caused by climatic
changes as time progresses.
Abstract: Public sector corruption has long-term and damaging
effects that are deep and broad. Addressing corruption relies on
understanding the drivers that precipitate acts of corruption and
developing educational programs that target areas of vulnerability.
This paper provides an innovative approach to explore the nature of
corruption by drawing on the perceptions and ideas of a group of
public servants who have been part of a corruption investigation. The
paper examines these reflections through the ideas of Pierre Bourdieu
and Alfred Schutz to point to some of the steps that can lead to
corrupt activity. The paper demonstrates that phenomenological
inquiry is useful in the exploration of corruption and, as a theoretical
framework, it highlights that corruption emerges through a
combination of conflict, doubt and uncertainty. The paper calls for
anti-corruption education programs to be attentive to way in which
these conditions can influence the steps into corruption.
Abstract: This study analyzed environmental health risks and
people-s perceptions of risks related to waste management in poor
settlements of Abidjan, to develop integrated solutions for health and
well-being improvement. The trans-disciplinary approach used relied
on remote sensing, a geographic information system (GIS),
qualitative and quantitative methods such as interviews and a
household survey (n=1800). Mitigating strategies were then
developed using an integrated participatory stakeholder workshop.
Waste management deficiencies resulting in lack of drainage and
uncontrolled solid and liquid waste disposal in the poor settlements
lead to severe environmental health risks. Health problems were
caused by direct handling of waste, as well as through broader
exposure of the population. People in poor settlements had little
awareness of health risks related to waste management in their
community and a general lack of knowledge pertaining to sanitation
systems. This unfortunate combination was the key determinant
affecting the health and vulnerability. For example, an increased
prevalence of malaria (47.1%) and diarrhoea (19.2%) was observed
in the rainy season when compared to the dry season (32.3% and
14.3%). Concerted and adapted solutions that suited all the
stakeholders concerned were developed in a participatory workshop
to allow for improvement of health and well-being.