Abstract: The paper presents an applied study of a multivariate AR(p) process fitted to daily data from U.S. commodity futures markets with the use of Bayesian statistics. In the first part a detailed description of the methods used is given. In the second part two BVAR models are chosen one with assumption of lognormal, the second with normal distribution of prices conditioned on the parameters. For a comparison two simple benchmark models are chosen that are commonly used in todays Financial Mathematics. The article compares the quality of predictions of all the models, tries to find an adequate rate of forgetting of information and questions the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis in the semi-strong form.
Abstract: This paper describes an experimental, theoretical
model and numerical study of concentrated vortex flow past a sphere
in a hydraulic check valve. The phenomenon of the rotation of the
ball around the axis of the device through which liquid flows has
been found. That is, due to the rotation of the sphere in the check
valve vibration is caused. We observe the rotation of the sphere
around the longitudinal axis of the check valve. This rotation is
induced by a vortex shedding from the sphere. We will discuss
computational simulation and experimental investigations of this
strong sphere rotation. The frequency of the sphere vibration and
interaction with the check valve wall has been measured as a function
of the wide range Reynolds Number. The validity of the
computational simulation and of the assumptions on which it is based
has been proved experimentally. This study demonstrates the
possibility to control the vibrations in a hydraulic system and proves
to be very effective suppression of the self-excited vibration.
Abstract: This study aimed to develop and initially validate an instrument that measures social competency among tertiary level faculty members. A review of extant literature on social competence was done. The review of extant literature led to the writing of the items in the initial instrument which was evaluated by 11 Subject Matter Experts (SMEs). The SMEs were either educators or psychologists. The results of the evaluations done by the SMEs served as bases for the creation of the pre-try-out instrument used in the first trial-run. Insights from the first trial-run participants led to the development of the main try-out instrument used in the final test administration. One Hundred Forty-one participants from five private Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) in the National Capital Region (NCR) and five private HEIs in Central Luzon in the Philippines participated in the final test administration. The reliability of the instrument was evaluated using Cronbach-s Coefficient Alpha formula and had a Cronbach-s Alpha of 0.92. On the other hand, Factor Analysis was used to evaluate the validity of the instrument and six factors were identified. The development of the final instrument was based on the results of the evaluation of the instrument-s reliability and validity. For purposes of recognition, the instrument was named “Social Competency Inventory for Tertiary Level Faculty Members (SCI-TLFM)."
Abstract: Data mining and knowledge engineering have become a tough task due to the availability of large amount of data in the web nowadays. Validity and reliability of data also become a main debate in knowledge acquisition. Besides, acquiring knowledge from different languages has become another concern. There are many language translators and corpora developed but the function of these translators and corpora are usually limited to certain languages and domains. Furthermore, search results from engines with traditional 'keyword' approach are no longer satisfying. More intelligent knowledge engineering agents are needed. To address to these problems, a system known as Multilingual Word Semantic Network is proposed. This system adapted semantic network to organize words according to concepts and relations. The system also uses open source as the development philosophy to enable the native language speakers and experts to contribute their knowledge to the system. The contributed words are then defined and linked using lexical and semantic relations. Thus, related words and derivatives can be identified and linked. From the outcome of the system implementation, it contributes to the development of semantic web and knowledge engineering.
Abstract: Many metrics were proposed to evaluate the
characteristics of the analysis and design model of a given product
which in turn help to assess the quality of the product. Function point
metric is a measure of the 'functionality' delivery by the software.
This paper presents an analysis of a set of programs of a project
developed in Cµ through Function Points metric. Function points
are measured for a Data Flow Diagram (DFD) of the case developed
at initial stage. Lines of Codes (LOCs) and possible errors are
calculated with the help of measured Function Points (FPs). The
calculations are performed using suitable established functions.
Calculated LOCs and errors are compared with actual LOCs and
errors found at the time of analysis & design review, implementation
and testing. It has been observed that actual found errors are more
than calculated errors. On the basis of analysis and observations,
authors conclude that function point provides useful insight and helps
to analyze the drawbacks in the development process.
Abstract: In this paper we used data mining techniques to
identify outlier patients who are using large amount of drugs over a
long period of time. Any healthcare or health insurance system
should deal with the quantities of drugs utilized by chronic diseases
patients. In Kingdom of Bahrain, about 20% of health budget is spent
on medications. For the managers of healthcare systems, there is no
enough information about the ways of drug utilization by chronic
diseases patients, is there any misuse or is there outliers patients. In
this work, which has been done in cooperation with information
department in the Bahrain Defence Force hospital; we select the data
for Cardiac patients in the period starting from 1/1/2008 to
December 31/12/2008 to be the data for the model in this paper. We
used three techniques for finding the drug utilization for cardiac
patients. First we applied a clustering technique, followed by
measuring of clustering validity, and finally we applied a decision
tree as classification algorithm. The clustering results is divided into
three clusters according to the drug utilization, for 1603 patients, who
received 15,806 prescriptions during this period can be partitioned
into three groups, where 23 patients (2.59%) who received 1316
prescriptions (8.32%) are classified to be outliers. The classification
algorithm shows that the use of average drug utilization and the age,
and the gender of the patient can be considered to be the main
predictive factors in the induced model.
Abstract: Interpretation of aerial images is an important task in
various applications. Image segmentation can be viewed as the essential
step for extracting information from aerial images. Among many
developed segmentation methods, the technique of clustering has been
extensively investigated and used. However, determining the number
of clusters in an image is inherently a difficult problem, especially
when a priori information on the aerial image is unavailable. This
study proposes a support vector machine approach for clustering
aerial images. Three cluster validity indices, distance-based index,
Davies-Bouldin index, and Xie-Beni index, are utilized as quantitative
measures of the quality of clustering results. Comparisons on the
effectiveness of these indices and various parameters settings on the
proposed methods are conducted. Experimental results are provided
to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach.
Abstract: This paper presents a novel two-phase hybrid optimization algorithm with hybrid genetic operators to solve the optimal control problem of a single stage hybrid manufacturing system. The proposed hybrid real coded genetic algorithm (HRCGA) is developed in such a way that a simple real coded GA acts as a base level search, which makes a quick decision to direct the search towards the optimal region, and a local search method is next employed to do fine tuning. The hybrid genetic operators involved in the proposed algorithm improve both the quality of the solution and convergence speed. The phase–1 uses conventional real coded genetic algorithm (RCGA), while optimisation by direct search and systematic reduction of the size of search region is employed in the phase – 2. A typical numerical example of an optimal control problem with the number of jobs varying from 10 to 50 is included to illustrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithm. Several statistical analyses are done to compare the validity of the proposed algorithm with the conventional RCGA and PSO techniques. Hypothesis t – test and analysis of variance (ANOVA) test are also carried out to validate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. The results clearly demonstrate that the proposed algorithm not only improves the quality but also is more efficient in converging to the optimal value faster. They can outperform the conventional real coded GA (RCGA) and the efficient particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm in quality of the optimal solution and also in terms of convergence to the actual optimum value.
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to develop and examine a
Teaching Commitment Scale of Health and Physical Education
(TCS-HPE) for Taiwanese elementary school teachers. First of all,
based on teaching commitment related theory and literatures to
develop a original scale with 40 items, later both stratified random
sampling and cluster sampling were used to sample participants.
During the first stage, 300 teachers were sampled and 251 valid scales
(83.7%) returned. Later, the data was analyzed by exploratory factor
analysis to obtain 74.30% of total variance for the construct validity.
The Cronbach-s alpha coefficient of sum scale reliability was 0.94, and
subscale coefficients were between 0.80 and 0.96. In the second stage,
400 teachers were sampled and 318 valid scales (79.5%) returned.
Finally, this study used confirmatory factor analysis to test validity and
reliability of TCS-HPE. The result showed that the fit indexes reached
acceptable criteria(¤ç2
(246 ) =557.64 , p
Abstract: This study aims to propose three evaluation methods to
evaluate the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program when emissions trading is
performed virtually among enterprises, focusing on carbon dioxide
(CO2), which is the only emitted greenhouse gas that tends to increase.
The first method clarifies the optimum reduction rate for the highest
cost benefit, the second discusses emissions trading among enterprises
through market trading, and the third verifies long-term emissions
trading during the term of the plan (2010-2019), checking the validity
of emissions trading partly using Geographic Information Systems
(GIS). The findings of this study can be summarized in the following
three points.
1. Since the total cost benefit is the greatest at a 44% reduction rate, it
is possible to set it more highly than that of the Tokyo Cap and
Trade Program to get more total cost benefit.
2. At a 44% reduction rate, among 320 enterprises, 8 purchasing
enterprises and 245 sales enterprises gain profits from emissions
trading, and 67 enterprises perform voluntary reduction without
conducting emissions trading. Therefore, to further promote
emissions trading, it is necessary to increase the sales volumes of
emissions trading in addition to sales enterprises by increasing the
number of purchasing enterprises.
3. Compared to short-term emissions trading, there are few enterprises
which benefit in each year through the long-term emissions trading
of the Tokyo Cap and Trade Program. Only 81 enterprises at the
most can gain profits from emissions trading in FY 2019. Therefore,
by setting the reduction rate more highly, it is necessary to increase
the number of enterprises that participate in emissions trading and
benefit from the restraint of CO2 emissions.
Abstract: In this paper the exact solution of infinite boundary integral equation (IBIE) of the second kind with degenerate kernel is presented. Moreover Galerkin method with Laguerre polynomial is applied to get the approximate solution of IBIE. Numerical examples are given to show the validity of the method presented.
Abstract: Stuck-pipe in drilling operations is one of the most
pressing and expensive problems in the oil industry. This paper
describes a computational simulation and an experimental study of
the hydrodynamic vibrator, which may be used for liquidation of
stuck-pipe problems during well drilling. The work principle of the
vibrator is based upon the known phenomena of Vortex Street of
Karman and the resulting generation of vibrations. We will discuss
the computational simulation and experimental investigations of
vibrations in this device. The frequency of the vibration parameters
has been measured as a function of the wide range Reynolds Number.
The validity of the computational simulation and of the assumptions
on which it is based has been proved experimentally. The
computational simulation of the vibrator work and its effectiveness
was carried out using FLUENT software. The research showed high
degree of congruence with the results of the laboratory tests and
allowed to determine the effect of the granular material features upon
the pipe vibration in the well. This study demonstrates the potential
of using the hydrodynamic vibrator in a well drilling system.