Abstract: The present paper discusses the prediction of gas-liquid two-phase frictional pressure drop in a 2.12 mm horizontal circular minichannel using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The experimental results are obtained with air as gas phase and water as liquid phase. The superficial gas velocity is kept in the range of 0.0236 m/s to 0.4722 m/s while the values of 0.0944 m/s, 0.1416 m/s and 0.1889 m/s are considered for superficial liquid velocity. The experimental results are predicted using different Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models. Networks used for prediction are radial basis, generalised regression, linear layer, cascade forward back propagation, feed forward back propagation, feed forward distributed time delay, layer recurrent, and Elman back propagation. Transfer functions used for networks are Linear (PURELIN), Logistic sigmoid (LOGSIG), tangent sigmoid (TANSIG) and Gaussian RBF. Combination of networks and transfer functions give different possible neural network models. These models are compared for Mean Absolute Relative Deviation (MARD) and Mean Relative Deviation (MRD) to identify the best predictive model of ANN.
Abstract: Response Surface Methods (RSM) provide
statistically validated predictive models that can then be manipulated
for finding optimal process configurations. Variation transmitted to
responses from poorly controlled process factors can be accounted
for by the mathematical technique of propagation of error (POE),
which facilitates ‘finding the flats’ on the surfaces generated by
RSM. The dual response approach to RSM captures the standard
deviation of the output as well as the average. It accounts for
unknown sources of variation. Dual response plus propagation of
error (POE) provides a more useful model of overall response
variation. In our case, we implemented this technique in predicting
compressive strength of concrete of 28 days in age. Since 28 days is
quite time consuming, while it is important to ensure the quality
control process. This paper investigates the potential of using design
of experiments (DOE-RSM) to predict the compressive strength of
concrete at 28th day. Data used for this study was carried out from
experiment schemes at university of Benghazi, civil engineering
department. A total of 114 sets of data were implemented. ACI mix
design method was utilized for the mix design. No admixtures were
used, only the main concrete mix constituents such as cement, coarseaggregate,
fine aggregate and water were utilized in all mixes.
Different mix proportions of the ingredients and different water
cement ratio were used. The proposed mathematical models are
capable of predicting the required concrete compressive strength of
concrete from early ages.
Abstract: This paper presents an extensive review of literature
relevant to the modelling techniques adopted in sediment yield and
hydrological modelling. Several studies relating to sediment yield are
discussed. Many research areas of sedimentation in rivers, runoff and
reservoirs are presented. Different types of hydrological models,
different methods employed in selecting appropriate models for
different case studies are analysed. Applications of evolutionary
algorithms and artificial intelligence techniques are discussed and
compared especially in water resources management and modelling.
This review concentrates on Genetic Programming (GP) and fully
discusses its theories and applications. The successful applications of
GP as a soft computing technique were reviewed in sediment
modelling. Some fundamental issues such as benchmark,
generalization ability, bloat, over-fitting and other open issues
relating to the working principles of GP are highlighted. This paper
concludes with the identification of some research gaps in
hydrological modelling and sediment yield.
Abstract: The work reported through this paper is an
experimental work conducted on High Performance Concrete (HPC)
with super plasticizer with the aim to develop some models suitable
for prediction of compressive strength of HPC mixes. In this study,
the effect of varying proportions of fly ash (0% to 50% @ 10%
increment) on compressive strength of high performance concrete has
been evaluated. The mix designs studied were M30, M40 and M50 to
compare the effect of fly ash addition on the properties of these
concrete mixes. In all eighteen concrete mixes that have been
designed, three were conventional concretes for three grades under
discussion and fifteen were HPC with fly ash with varying
percentages of fly ash. The concrete mix designing has been done in
accordance with Indian standard recommended guidelines. All the
concrete mixes have been studied in terms of compressive strength at
7 days, 28 days, 90 days, and 365 days. All the materials used have
been kept same throughout the study to get a perfect comparison of
values of results. The models for compressive strength prediction
have been developed using Linear Regression method (LR), Artificial
Neural Network (ANN) and Leave-One-Out Validation (LOOV)
methods.
Abstract: DNA Barcode provides good sources of needed
information to classify living species. The classification problem has
to be supported with reliable methods and algorithms. To analyze
species regions or entire genomes, it becomes necessary to use the
similarity sequence methods. A large set of sequences can be
simultaneously compared using Multiple Sequence Alignment which
is known to be NP-complete. However, all the used methods are still
computationally very expensive and require significant computational
infrastructure. Our goal is to build predictive models that are highly
accurate and interpretable. In fact, our method permits to avoid the
complex problem of form and structure in different classes of
organisms. The empirical data and their classification performances
are compared with other methods. Evenly, in this study, we present
our system which is consisted of three phases. The first one, is called
transformation, is composed of three sub steps; Electron-Ion
Interaction Pseudopotential (EIIP) for the codification of DNA
Barcodes, Fourier Transform and Power Spectrum Signal Processing.
Moreover, the second phase step is an approximation; it is
empowered by the use of Multi Library Wavelet Neural Networks
(MLWNN). Finally, the third one, is called the classification of DNA
Barcodes, is realized by applying the algorithm of hierarchical
classification.
Abstract: In the present study, response surface methodology has been used to optimize turn-assisted deep cold rolling process of AISI 4140 steel. A regression model is developed to predict surface hardness and surface roughness using response surface methodology and central composite design. In the development of predictive model, deep cold rolling force, ball diameter, initial roughness of the workpiece, and number of tool passes are considered as model variables. The rolling force and the ball diameter are the significant factors on the surface hardness and ball diameter and numbers of tool passes are found to be significant for surface roughness. The predicted surface hardness and surface roughness values and the subsequent verification experiments under the optimal operating conditions confirmed the validity of the predicted model. The absolute average error between the experimental and predicted values at the optimal combination of parameter settings for surface hardness and surface roughness is calculated as 0.16% and 1.58% respectively. Using the optimal processing parameters, the surface hardness is improved from 225 to 306 HV, which resulted in an increase in the near surface hardness by about 36% and the surface roughness is improved from 4.84µm to 0.252 µm, which resulted in decrease in the surface roughness by about 95%. The depth of compression is found to be more than 300µm from the microstructure analysis and this is in correlation with the results obtained from the microhardness measurements. Taylor hobson talysurf tester, micro vickers hardness tester, optical microscopy and X-ray diffractometer are used to characterize the modified surface layer.
Abstract: There is not much effective guideline on development of design parameters selection on spring back for advanced high strength steel sheet metal in U-channel process during cold forming process. This paper presents the development of predictive model for spring back in U-channel process on advanced high strength steel sheet employing Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The experimental was performed on dual phase steel sheet, DP590 in Uchannel forming process while design of experiment (DoE) approach was used to investigates the effects of four factors namely blank holder force (BHF), clearance (C) and punch travel (Tp) and rolling direction (R) were used as input parameters using two level values by applying Full Factorial design (24 ). From a statistical analysis of variant (ANOVA), result showed that blank holder force (BHF), clearance (C) and punch travel (Tp) displayed significant effect on spring back of flange angle (β2 ) and wall opening angle (β1 ), while rolling direction (R) factor is insignificant. The significant parameters are optimized in order to reduce the spring back behavior using Central Composite Design (CCD) in RSM and the optimum parameters were determined. A regression model for spring back was developed. The effect of individual parameters and their response was also evaluated. The results obtained from optimum model are in agreement with the experimental values.
Abstract: This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect
of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its
relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research
concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect
on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an
increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the
resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison
between the measured data and predictive data of permanent
deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing
prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent
deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the
onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road
agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the
best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction
works of the road infrastructure.
Abstract: The effects of hypertension are often lethal thus its
early detection and prevention is very important for everybody. In
this paper, a neural network (NN) model was developed and trained
based on a dataset of hypertension causative parameters in order to
forecast the likelihood of occurrence of hypertension in patients. Our
research goal was to analyze the potential of the presented NN to
predict, for a period of time, the risk of hypertension or the risk of
developing this disease for patients that are or not currently
hypertensive. The results of the analysis for a given patient can
support doctors in taking pro-active measures for averting the
occurrence of hypertension such as recommendations regarding the
patient behavior in order to lower his hypertension risk. Moreover,
the paper envisages a set of three example scenarios in order to
determine the age when the patient becomes hypertensive, i.e.
determine the threshold for hypertensive age, to analyze what
happens if the threshold hypertensive age is set to a certain age and
the weight of the patient if being varied, and, to set the ideal weight
for the patient and analyze what happens with the threshold of
hypertensive age.
Abstract: The knowledge of biodiesel density over large ranges
of temperature and pressure is important for predicting the behavior
of fuel injection and combustion systems in diesel engines, and for
the optimization of such systems. In this study, cottonseed oil was
transesterified into biodiesel and its density was measured at
temperatures between 288 K and 358 K and pressures between 0.1
MPa and 30 MPa, with expanded uncertainty estimated as ±1.6 kg⋅m-
3. Experimental pressure-volume-temperature (pVT) cottonseed data
was used along with literature data relative to other 18 biodiesels, in
order to build a database used to test the correlation of density with
temperarure and pressure using the Goharshadi–Morsali–Abbaspour
equation of state (GMA EoS). To our knowledge, this is the first that
density measurements are presented for cottonseed biodiesel under
such high pressures, and the GMA EoS used to model biodiesel
density. The new tested EoS allowed correlations within 0.2 kg·m-3
corresponding to average relative deviations within 0.02%. The built
database was used to develop and test a new full predictive model
derived from the observed linear relation between density and degree
of unsaturation (DU), which depended from biodiesel FAMEs
profile. The average density deviation of this method was only about
3 kg.m-3 within the temperature and pressure limits of application.
These results represent appreciable improvements in the context of
density prediction at high pressure when compared with other
equations of state.
Abstract: In terms of ecology forecast effects of desertification, the purpose of this study is to develop a predictive model of growth and adaptation of species in arid environment and bioclimatic conditions. The impact of climate change and the desertification phenomena is the result of combined effects in magnitude and frequency of these phenomena. Like the data involved in the phytopathogenic process and bacteria growth in arid soil occur in an uncertain environment because of their complexity, it becomes necessary to have a suitable methodology for the analysis of these variables. The basic principles of fuzzy logic those are perfectly suited to this process. As input variables, we consider the physical parameters, soil type, bacteria nature, and plant species concerned. The result output variable is the adaptability of the species expressed by the growth rate or extinction. As a conclusion, we prevent the possible strategies for adaptation, with or without shifting areas of plantation and nature adequate vegetation.
Abstract: This paper presents a preliminary attempt to apply classification of time series using meta-clusters in order to improve the quality of regression models. In this case, clustering was performed as a method to obtain subgroups of time series data with normal distribution from the inflow into wastewater treatment plant data, composed of several groups differing by mean value. Two simple algorithms, K-mean and EM, were chosen as a clustering method. The Rand index was used to measure the similarity. After simple meta-clustering, a regression model was performed for each subgroups. The final model was a sum of the subgroups models. The quality of the obtained model was compared with the regression model made using the same explanatory variables, but with no clustering of data. Results were compared using determination coefficient (R2), measure of prediction accuracy- mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and comparison on a linear chart. Preliminary results allow us to foresee the potential of the presented technique.
Abstract: One of the most significant threats to the economy of a nation is the bankruptcy of its banks. This study evaluates the susceptibility of Nigerian banks to failure with a view to identifying ratios and financial data that are sensitive to solvency of the bank. Further, a predictive model is generated to guide all stakeholders in the industry. Thirty quoted banks that had published Annual Reports for the year preceding the consolidation i.e. year 2004 were selected. They were examined for distress using the Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network Analysis. The model was used to analyze further reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria using published Annual Reports of twenty quoted banks for the year 2008 and 2011. The model can thus be used for future prediction of failure in the Nigerian banking system.
Abstract: This paper presents a predictive model of sensor readings for mobile robot. The model predicts sensor readings for given time horizon based on current sensor readings and velocities of wheels assumed for this horizon. Similar models for such anticipation have been proposed in the literature. The novelty of the model presented in the paper comes from the fact that its structure takes into account physical phenomena and is not just a black box, for example a neural network. From this point of view it may be regarded as a semi-phenomenological model. The model is developed for the Khepera robot, but after certain modifications, it may be applied for any robot with distance sensors such as infrared or ultrasonic sensors.
Abstract: The prediction of meteorological parameters at a
meteorological station is an interesting and open problem. A firstorder
linear dynamic model GM(1,1) is the main component of the
grey system theory. The grey model requires only a few previous data
points in order to make a real-time forecast. In this paper, we
consider the daily average ambient temperature as a time series and
the grey model GM(1,1) applied to local prediction (short-term
prediction) of the temperature. In the same case study we use a fuzzy
predictive model for global prediction. We conclude the paper with a
comparison between local and global prediction schemes.
Abstract: Metal matrix composites have been increasingly used
as materials for components in automotive and aerospace industries
because of their improved properties compared with non-reinforced
alloys. During machining the selection of appropriate machining
parameters to produce job for desired surface roughness is of great
concern considering the economy of manufacturing process. In this
study, a surface roughness prediction model using fuzzy logic is
developed for end milling of Al-SiCp metal matrix composite
component using carbide end mill cutter. The surface roughness is
modeled as a function of spindle speed (N), feed rate (f), depth of cut
(d) and the SiCp percentage (S). The predicted values surface
roughness is compared with experimental result. The model predicts
average percentage error as 4.56% and mean square error as 0.0729.
It is observed that surface roughness is most influenced by feed rate,
spindle speed and SiC percentage. Depth of cut has least influence.
Abstract: This paper present the study carried out of accident
analysis, black spot study and to develop accident predictive models
based on the data collected at rural roadway, Federal Route 50 (F050)
Malaysia. The road accident trends and black spot ranking were
established on the F050. The development of the accident prediction
model will concentrate in Parit Raja area from KM 19 to KM 23.
Multiple non-linear regression method was used to relate the discrete
accident data with the road and traffic flow explanatory variable. The
dependent variable was modeled as the number of crashes namely
accident point weighting, however accident point weighting have
rarely been account in the road accident prediction Models. The result
show that, the existing number of major access points, without traffic
light, rise in speed, increasing number of Annual Average Daily
Traffic (AADT), growing number of motorcycle and motorcar and
reducing the time gap are the potential contributors of increment
accident rates on multiple rural roadway.
Abstract: This paper presents an approach for the determination of the optimal cutting parameters (spindle speed, feed rate, depth of cut and engagement) leading to minimum surface roughness in face milling of high silicon stainless steel by coupling neural network (NN) and Electromagnetism-like Algorithm (EM). In this regard, the advantages of statistical experimental design technique, experimental measurements, artificial neural network, and Electromagnetism-like optimization method are exploited in an integrated manner. To this end, numerous experiments on this stainless steel were conducted to obtain surface roughness values. A predictive model for surface roughness is created by using a back propogation neural network, then the optimization problem was solved by using EM optimization. Additional experiments were performed to validate optimum surface roughness value predicted by EM algorithm. It is clearly seen that a good agreement is observed between the predicted values by EM coupled with feed forward neural network and experimental measurements. The obtained results show that the EM algorithm coupled with back propogation neural network is an efficient and accurate method in approaching the global minimum of surface roughness in face milling.
Abstract: Monitoring of microbial flora in aquacultured sea bream, in relation to the physicochemical parameters of the rearing seawater, ended to a model describing the influence of the last to the quality of the fisheries. Fishes were sampled during eight months from four aqua farms in Western Greece and analyzed for psychrotrophic, H2S producing bacteria, Salmonella sp., heterotrophic plate count (PCA), with simultaneous physical evaluation. Temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, conductivity, TDS, salinity, NO3 - and NH4 + ions were recorded. Temperature, dissolved oxygen and conductivity were correlated, respectively, to PCA, Pseudomonas sp. and Shewanella sp. counts. These parameters were the inputs of the model, which was driving, as outputs, to the prediction of PCA, Vibrio sp., Pseudomonas sp. and Shewanella sp. counts, and fish microbiological quality. The present study provides, for the first time, a ready-to-use predictive model of fisheries hygiene, leading to an effective management system for the optimization of aquaculture fisheries quality.
Abstract: The Emergency Department of a medical center in
Taiwan cooperated to conduct the research. A predictive model of
triage system is contracted from the contract procedure, selection of
parameters to sample screening. 2,000 pieces of data needed for the
patients is chosen randomly by the computer. After three
categorizations of data mining (Multi-group Discriminant Analysis,
Multinomial Logistic Regression, Back-propagation Neural
Networks), it is found that Back-propagation Neural Networks can
best distinguish the patients- extent of emergency, and the accuracy
rate can reach to as high as 95.1%. The Back-propagation Neural
Networks that has the highest accuracy rate is simulated into the triage
acuity expert system in this research. Data mining applied to the
predictive model of the triage acuity expert system can be updated
regularly for both the improvement of the system and for education
training, and will not be affected by subjective factors.