Abstract: This paper aimed to establish econometrical equation models for the Nile delta region in Egypt, which will represent a basement for future predictions of Lumpy skin disease outbreaks and its pathway in relation to climate change. Data of lumpy skin disease (LSD) outbreaks were collected from the cattle farms located in the provinces representing the Nile delta region during 1 January, 2015 to December, 2015. The obtained results indicated that there was a significant association between the degree of the LSD outbreaks and the investigated climate factors (temperature, wind speed, and humidity) and the outbreaks peaked during the months of June, July, and August and gradually decreased to the lowest rate in January, February, and December. The model obtained depicted that the increment of these climate factors were associated with evidently increment on LSD outbreaks on the Nile Delta of Egypt. The model validation process was done by the root mean square error (RMSE) and means bias (MB) which compared the number of LSD outbreaks expected with the number of observed outbreaks and estimated the confidence level of the model. The value of RMSE was 1.38% and MB was 99.50% confirming that this established model described the current association between the LSD outbreaks and the change on climate factors and also can be used as a base for predicting the of LSD outbreaks depending on the climatic change on the future.
Abstract: The improvement of irrigation systems in the Nile
Delta is one of the most important attempts in Egypt to implement
more effective irrigation technology by improving the existing
irrigation networks. Demand delivery system in the existing irrigation
network is using of mechanical gates structures to automatically
divert water from one portion of an agricultural field to another in the
desired amount and sequence. This paper discusses evaluating main
irrigation networks system under the government managed before
and after improvement systems in the Nile Delta. The overall results
indicate that policy of using the demand delivery concept through
irrigation networks is successful by improving water delivery
performance among them than the rotation delivery concept that used
before. It is provided fair share of water delivery among irrigation
districts and available water in the end of irrigation network,
although this system located in an end of irrigation networks in the
Nile Delta.
Abstract: The world economic crises and budget constraints
have caused authorities, especially those in developing countries, to
rationalize water quality monitoring activities. Rationalization
consists of reducing the number of monitoring sites, the number of
samples, and/or the number of water quality variables measured. The
reduction in water quality variables is usually based on correlation. If
two variables exhibit high correlation, it is an indication that some of
the information produced may be redundant. Consequently, one
variable can be discontinued, and the other continues to be measured.
Later, the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique is
employed to reconstitute information about discontinued variable by
using the continuously measured one as an explanatory variable. In
this paper, two record extension techniques are employed to
reconstitute information about discontinued water quality variables,
the OLS and the Line of Organic Correlation (LOC). An empirical
experiment is conducted using water quality records from the Nile
Delta water quality monitoring network in Egypt. The record
extension techniques are compared for their ability to predict
different statistical parameters of the discontinued variables. Results
show that the OLS is better at estimating individual water quality
records. However, results indicate an underestimation of the variance
in the extended records. The LOC technique is superior in preserving
characteristics of the entire distribution and avoids underestimation
of the variance. It is concluded from this study that the OLS can be
used for the substitution of missing values, while LOC is preferable
for inferring statements about the probability distribution.
Abstract: This paper is concerned with the study of mineralogy
and engineering characteristics of soil materials derived from the
eastern part of Nile Delta. The clay minerals of the studied soil by
using X- ray diffraction are mainly illite (average 72.6 %) and
kaolinite (average 2.6 %), expandable portion in illite-smectite mixed
layer (average 7 %). Smectite is more abundant in fluviatile clays,
whereas kaolinite is more abundant in lagoonal clays. On the other
hand, illite and illite-smectite are more abundant in marine clays. The
geotechnical results show that the soil under study consists mainly of
about 0.3 % gravel, 5 % sand, 51.5 % silt and 42.2 % clay in average.
The average shrinkage limit attains 11 % whereas the average value
of the plasticity index is 23.4 %. The free swelling ranges from 40 %
to 75 % and has a value of 55 % giving an indication about the
inadequacy of such soil under foundations.
From a construction point of view, the soil under investigation
poses many problems even under light foundations due to the
swelling and shrinkage. Such swelling and shrinkage is due to the
high content of soil materials in the expandable clay minerals of illite
and smectite. Based on the results of the present and earlier studies,
trial application of soil stabilisation is recommended.