Abstract: In this paper is shown that the probability-statistic methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation gas turbine engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence is considered the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods. Training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. Thus for GTE technical condition more adequate model making are analysed dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients' changes. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE work parameters have fuzzy character. Hence consideration of fuzzy skewness and kurtosis coefficients is expedient. Investigation of the basic characteristics changes- dynamics of GTE work parameters allows to draw conclusion on necessity of the Fuzzy Statistical Analysis at preliminary identification of the engines' technical condition. Researches of correlation coefficients values- changes shows also on their fuzzy character. Therefore for models choice the application of the Fuzzy Correlation Analysis results is offered. For checking of models adequacy is considered the Fuzzy Multiple Correlation Coefficient of Fuzzy Multiple Regression. At the information sufficiency is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification (Hard Computing technology is used) on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-bystage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine temperature condition was made.
Abstract: In a particular case of behavioural model reduction by ANNs, a validity domain shortening has been found. In mechanics, as in other domains, the notion of validity domain allows the engineer to choose a valid model for a particular analysis or simulation. In the study of mechanical behaviour for a cantilever beam (using linear and non-linear models), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Backpropagation (BP) networks have been applied as model reduction technique. This reduced model is constructed to be more efficient than the non-reduced model. Within a less extended domain, the ANN reduced model estimates correctly the non-linear response, with a lower computational cost. It has been found that the neural network model is not able to approximate the linear behaviour while it does approximate the non-linear behaviour very well. The details of the case are provided with an example of the cantilever beam behaviour modelling.
Abstract: Groundlessness of application probability-statistic methods are especially shown at an early stage of the aviation GTE technical condition diagnosing, when the volume of the information has property of the fuzzy, limitations, uncertainty and efficiency of application of new technology Soft computing at these diagnosing stages by using the fuzzy logic and neural networks methods. It is made training with high accuracy of multiple linear and nonlinear models (the regression equations) received on the statistical fuzzy data basis. At the information sufficiency it is offered to use recurrent algorithm of aviation GTE technical condition identification on measurements of input and output parameters of the multiple linear and nonlinear generalized models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive least squares method (LSM)). As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine D30KU-154 technical condition at height H=10600 m was made.
Abstract: In many data mining applications, it is a priori known
that the target function should satisfy certain constraints imposed
by, for example, economic theory or a human-decision maker. In this
paper we consider partially monotone prediction problems, where the
target variable depends monotonically on some of the input variables
but not on all. We propose a novel method to construct prediction
models, where monotone dependences with respect to some of
the input variables are preserved by virtue of construction. Our
method belongs to the class of mixture models. The basic idea is to
convolute monotone neural networks with weight (kernel) functions
to make predictions. By using simulation and real case studies,
we demonstrate the application of our method. To obtain sound
assessment for the performance of our approach, we use standard
neural networks with weight decay and partially monotone linear
models as benchmark methods for comparison. The results show that
our approach outperforms partially monotone linear models in terms
of accuracy. Furthermore, the incorporation of partial monotonicity
constraints not only leads to models that are in accordance with the
decision maker's expertise, but also reduces considerably the model
variance in comparison to standard neural networks with weight
decay.
Abstract: In this paper, we focus on the use of knowledge bases
in two different application areas – control of systems with unknown
or strongly nonlinear models (i.e. hardly controllable by the classical
methods), and robot motion planning in eight directions. The first
one deals with fuzzy logic and the paper presents approaches for
setting and aggregating the rules of a knowledge base. Te second one
is concentrated on a case-based reasoning strategy for finding the
path in a planar scene with obstacles.
Abstract: Daily production of information and importance of the sequence of produced data in forecasting future performance of market causes analysis of data behavior to become a problem of analyzing time series. But time series that are very complicated, usually are random and as a result their changes considered being unpredictable. While these series might be products of a deterministic dynamical and nonlinear process (chaotic) and as a result be predictable. Point of Chaotic theory view, complicated systems have only chaotically face and as a result they seem to be unregulated and random, but it is possible that they abide by a specified math formula. In this article, with regard to test of strange attractor and biggest Lyapunov exponent probability of chaos on several foreign exchange rates vs. IRR (Iranian Rial) has been investigated. Results show that data in this market have complex chaotic behavior with big degree of freedom.
Abstract: Maintenance is one of the most important activities in
the shipyard industry. However, sometimes it is not supported by
adequate services from the shipyard, where inaccuracy in estimating
the duration of the ship maintenance is still common. This makes
estimation of ship maintenance duration is crucial. This study uses
Data Mining approach, i.e., CART (Classification and Regression
Tree) to estimate the duration of ship maintenance that is limited to
dock works or which is known as dry docking. By using the volume
of dock works as an input to estimate the maintenance duration, 4
classes of dry docking duration were obtained with different linear
model and job criteria for each class. These linear models can then be
used to estimate the duration of dry docking based on job criteria.
Abstract: Researches show that probability-statistical methods application, especially at the early stage of the aviation Gas Turbine Engine (GTE) technical condition diagnosing, when the flight information has property of the fuzzy, limitation and uncertainty is unfounded. Hence the efficiency of application of new technology Soft Computing at these diagnosing stages with the using of the Fuzzy Logic and Neural Networks methods is considered. According to the purpose of this problem training with high accuracy of fuzzy multiple linear and non-linear models (fuzzy regression equations) which received on the statistical fuzzy data basis is made. For GTE technical condition more adequate model making dynamics of skewness and kurtosis coefficients- changes are analysed. Researches of skewness and kurtosis coefficients values- changes show that, distributions of GTE workand output parameters of the multiple linear and non-linear generalised models at presence of noise measured (the new recursive Least Squares Method (LSM)). The developed GTE condition monitoring system provides stage-by-stage estimation of engine technical conditions. As application of the given technique the estimation of the new operating aviation engine technical condition was made.