Abstract: It can be frequently observed that the data arising in our environment have a hierarchical or a nested structure attached with the data. Multilevel modelling is a modern approach to handle this kind of data. When multilevel modelling is combined with a binary response, the estimation methods get complex in nature and the usual techniques are derived from quasi-likelihood method. The estimation methods which are compared in this study are, marginal quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (MQL1, MQL2) and penalized quasi-likelihood (order 1 & order 2) (PQL1, PQL2). A statistical model is of no use if it does not reflect the given dataset. Therefore, checking the adequacy of the fitted model through a goodness-of-fit (GOF) test is an essential stage in any modelling procedure. However, prior to usage, it is also equally important to confirm that the GOF test performs well and is suitable for the given model. This study assesses the suitability of the GOF test developed for binary response multilevel models with respect to the method used in model estimation. An extensive set of simulations was conducted using MLwiN (v 2.19) with varying number of clusters, cluster sizes and intra cluster correlations. The test maintained the desirable Type-I error for models estimated using PQL2 and it failed for almost all the combinations of MQL. Power of the test was adequate for most of the combinations in all estimation methods except MQL1. Moreover, models were fitted using the four methods to a real-life dataset and performance of the test was compared for each model.
Abstract: The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.
Abstract: System identification of an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), to acquire its mathematical model, is a significant step in the process of aircraft flight automation. The need for reliable mathematical model is an established requirement for autopilot design, flight simulator development, aircraft performance appraisal, analysis of aircraft modifications, preflight testing of prototype aircraft and investigation of fatigue life and stress distribution etc. This research is aimed at system identification of a fixed wing UAV by means of specifically designed flight experiment. The purposely designed flight maneuvers were performed on the UAV and aircraft states were recorded during these flights. Acquired data were preprocessed for noise filtering and bias removal followed by parameter estimation of longitudinal dynamics transfer functions using MATLAB system identification toolbox. Black box identification based transfer function models, in response to elevator and throttle inputs, were estimated using least square error technique. The identification results show a high confidence level and goodness of fit between the estimated model and actual aircraft response.
Abstract: The present study was aimed to examine the structure
of children’s adaptation during school transition and to identify a
commonality and dissimilarity at the elementary and junior high
school. 1,983 students in the 6th grade and 2,051 students in the 7th
grade were extracted by stratified two-stage random sampling and
completed the ASSESS that evaluated the school adaptation from the
view point of ‘general satisfaction’, ‘teachers’ support’, ‘friends’
support’, ‘anti-bullying relationship’, ‘prosocial skills’, and ‘academic
adaptation’. The 7th graders tend to be worse adaptation than the 6th
graders. A structural equation modeling showed the goodness of fit for
each grades. Both models were very similar but the 7th graders’ model
showed a lower coefficient at the pass from ‘teachers’ support’ to
‘friends’ support’. The role of ‘teachers’ support’ was decreased to
keep a good relation in junior high school. We also discussed how we
provide a continuous assistance for prevention of the 7th graders’ gap.
Abstract: We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model
(HGGM), which was developed by introducing a shape parameter
(allometric). This was achieved by convoluting hyperbolic sine
function on the intrinsic rate of growth in the classical gompertz
growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained
deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used
in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its
ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz
growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of
height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides
a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit
tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov Smirnov test and
Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error
term to normality assumptions while the independence of the error
term was confirmed using the runs test. The mean function of top
height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted
closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic
gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical
gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE and
AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Gompertz
growth models over its source model.
Abstract: Many researchers have suggested the use of zero inflated Poisson (ZIP) and zero inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models in modeling overdispersed medical count data with extra variations caused by extra zeros and unobserved heterogeneity. The studies indicate that ZIP and ZINB always provide better fit than using the normal Poisson and negative binomial models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. In this study, we proposed the use of Zero Inflated Inverse Trinomial (ZIIT), Zero Inflated Poisson Inverse Gaussian (ZIPIG) and zero inflated strict arcsine models in modeling overdispered medical count data. These proposed models are not widely used by many researchers especially in the medical field. The results show that these three suggested models can serve as alternative models in modeling overdispersed medical count data. This is supported by the application of these suggested models to a real life medical data set. Inverse trinomial, Poisson inverse Gaussian and strict arcsine are discrete distributions with cubic variance function of mean. Therefore, ZIIT, ZIPIG and ZISA are able to accommodate data with excess zeros and very heavy tailed. They are recommended to be used in modeling overdispersed medical count data when ZIP and ZINB are inadequate.
Abstract: Objective: This study explored the possibility of integrating Health Belief Concepts as additional predictors of intention to adopt a recommended diet-category within the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB). Methods: The study adopted a Sequential Exploratory Mixed Methods approach. Qualitative data were generated on attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control and perceptions on predetermined diet-categories including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action. Synthesis of qualitative data was done using constant comparative approach during phase 1. A survey tool developed from qualitative results was used to collect information on the same concepts across 237 legible Type 2 diabetics. Data analysis included use of Structural Equation Modeling in Analysis of Moment Structures to explore the possibility of including perceived susceptibility, perceived benefits, perceived severity and cues to action as additional intention predictors in a single nested model. Results: Two models-one nested based on the traditional TPB model {χ2=223.3, df = 77, p = .02, χ2/df = 2.9; TLI = .93; CFI =.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .090(.039, .146)} and the newly proposed Planned Behavior Health Belief Model (PBHB) {χ2 = 743.47, df = 301, p = .019; TLI = .90; CFI=.91; RMSEA (90CI) = .079(.031, .14)} passed the goodness of fit tests based on common fit indicators used. Conclusion: The newly developed PBHB Model ranked higher than the traditional TPB model with reference made to chi-square ratios (PBHB: χ2/df = 2.47; p=0.19 against TPB: χ2/df = 2.9, p=0.02). The integrated model can be used to motivate Type 2 diabetics towards healthy eating.
Abstract: To respond to the Kyoto Protocol, the policy of Payment for Environmental Service (PES), which was entitled “Plain Landscape Afforestation Program (PLAP)", was certified by Executive Yuan in Taiwan on 31 August 2001 and has been implementing for six years since 1 January 2002. Although the PLAP has received a lot of positive comments, there are still many difficulties during the process of implementation, such as insufficient technology for afforestation, private landowners- low interests in participating in PLAP, insufficient subsidies, and so on, which are potential threats that hinder the PLAP from moving forward in future. In this paper, selecting Ping-Tung County in Taiwan as a sample region and targeting those private landowners with and without intention to participate in the PLAP, respectively, we conduct an empirical analysis based on the Logit model to investigate the factors that determine whether those private landowners join the PLAP, so as to realize the incentive effects of the PLAP upon the personal decision on afforestation. The possible factors that might determine private landowner-s participation in the PLAP include landowner-s characteristics, cropland characteristics, as well as policy factors. Among them, the policy factors include afforestation subsidy amount (+), duration of afforestation subsidy (+), the rules on adjoining and adjacent areas (+), and so on, which do not reach the remarkable level in statistics though, but the directions of variable signs are consistent with the intuition behind the policy. As for the landowners- characteristics, each of age (+), education level (–), and annual household income (+) variables reaches 10% of the remarkable level in statistics; as for the cropland characteristics, each of cropland area (+), cropland price (–), and the number of cropland parcels (–) reaches 1% of the remarkable level in statistics. In light of the above, the cropland characteristics are the dominate factor that determines the probability of landowner-s participation in the PLAP. In the Logit model established by this paper, the probability of correctly estimating nonparticipants is 98%, the probability of correctly estimating the participants is 71.8%, and the probability for the overall estimation is 95%. In addition, Hosmer-Lemeshow test and omnibus test also revealed that the Logit model in this paper may provide fine goodness of fit and good predictive power in forecasting private landowners- participation in this program. The empirical result of this paper expects to help the implementation of the afforestation programs in Taiwan.
Abstract: Periodicities in the environmetric time series can be
idyllically assessed by utilizing periodic models. In this
communication fugitive emission of gases from open sewer channel
Lyari which follows periodic behaviour are approximated by
employing periodic autoregressive model of order p. The orders of
periodic model for each season are selected through the examination
of periodic partial autocorrelation or information criteria. The
parameters for the selected order of season are estimated individually
for each emitted air toxin. Subsequently, adequacies of fitted models
are established by examining the properties of the residual for each
season. These models are beneficial for schemer and administrative
bodies for the improvement of implemented policies to surmount
future environmental problems.
Abstract: A Matlab based software for logistic regression is developed to enhance the process of teaching quantitative topics and assist researchers with analyzing wide area of applications where categorical data is involved. The software offers an option of performing stepwise logistic regression to select the most significant predictors. The software includes a feature to detect influential observations in data, and investigates the effect of dropping or misclassifying an observation on a predictor variable. The input data may consist either as a set of individual responses (yes/no) with the predictor variables or as grouped records summarizing various categories for each unique set of predictor variables' values. Graphical displays are used to output various statistical results and to assess the goodness of fit of the logistic regression model. The software recognizes possible convergence constraints when present in data, and the user is notified accordingly.
Abstract: The hydrologic time series data display periodic
structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable
attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long
term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to
quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of
model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This
study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most
parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the
river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is
used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed
model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.
Abstract: Fuzzy logic approach is used in this study to predict
the tractive performance in terms of traction force, and motion
resistance for an intelligent air cushion track vehicle while it operates
in the swamp peat. The system is effective to control the intelligent
air –cushion system with measuring the vehicle traction force (TF),
motion resistance (MR), cushion clearance height (CH) and cushion
pressure (CP). Sinkage measuring sensor, magnetic switch, pressure
sensor, micro controller, control valves and battery are incorporated
with the Fuzzy logic system (FLS) to investigate experimentally the
TF, MR, CH, and CP. In this study, a comparison for tractive
performance of an intelligent air cushion track vehicle has been
performed with the results obtained from the predicted values of FLS
and experimental actual values. The mean relative error of actual and
predicted values from the FLS model on traction force, and total
motion resistance are found as 5.58 %, and 6.78 % respectively. For
all parameters, the relative error of predicted values are found to be
less than the acceptable limits. The goodness of fit of the prediction
values from the FLS model on TF, and MR are found as 0.90, and
0.98 respectively.
Abstract: Many works have been carried out to compare the
efficiency of several goodness of fit procedures for identifying
whether or not a particular distribution could adequately explain a
data set. In this paper a study is conducted to investigate the power
of several goodness of fit tests such as Kolmogorov Smirnov (KS),
Anderson-Darling(AD), Cramer- von- Mises (CV) and a proposed
modification of Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit test which
incorporates a variance stabilizing transformation (FKS). The
performances of these selected tests are studied under simple
random sampling (SRS) and Ranked Set Sampling (RSS). This
study shows that, in general, the Anderson-Darling (AD) test
performs better than other GOF tests. However, there are some
cases where the proposed test can perform as equally good as the
AD test.
Abstract: The purpose of this study was to analyze the correlation
between permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios and
their fluctuation, and test a distribution model during 3 successive governments in 5 cities including Bucheon in reference to the time
series administrative data, and thereby, interpret the results of the analysis in association with the policies pursued by the successive
governments to examine the structural fluctuation of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios.
In order to analyze the fluctuation of permitted building areas and
housing distribution ratios during 3 successive governments and
examine the cycles of the time series data, the spectral analysis was performed, and in order to analyze the correlation between permitted
building areas and housing distribution ratios, the tabulation was performed to describe the correlations statistically, and in order to
explain about differences of fluctuation distribution of permitted building areas and housing distribution ratios among 3 governments,
the goodness of fit test was conducted.
Abstract: This research aims at development of the Multiple
Intelligences Measurement of Elementary Students. The structural
accuracy test and normality establishment are based on the Multiple
Intelligences Theory of Gardner. This theory consists of eight aspects
namely linguistics, logic and mathematics, visual-spatial relations,
body and movement, music, human relations, self-realization/selfunderstanding
and nature. The sample used in this research consists
of elementary school students (aged between 5-11 years). The size of
the sample group was determined by Yamane Table. The group has
2,504 students. Multistage Sampling was used. Basic statistical
analysis and construct validity testing were done using confirmatory
factor analysis. The research can be summarized as follows; 1.
Multiple Intelligences Measurement consisting of 120 items is
content-accurate. Internal consistent reliability according to the
method of Kuder-Richardson of the whole Multiple Intelligences
Measurement equals .91. The difficulty of the measurement test is
between .39-.83. Discrimination is between .21-.85. 2). The Multiple
Intelligences Measurement has construct validity in a good range,
that is 8 components and all 120 test items have statistical
significance level at .01. Chi-square value equals 4357.7; p=.00 at the
degree of freedom of 244 and Goodness of Fit Index equals 1.00.
Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index equals .92. Comparative Fit Index
(CFI) equals .68. Root Mean Squared Residual (RMR) equals 0.064
and Root Mean Square Error of Approximation equals 0.82. 3). The
normality of the Multiple Intelligences Measurement is categorized
into 3 levels. Those with high intelligence are those with percentiles
of more than 78. Those with moderate/medium intelligence are those
with percentiles between 24 and 77.9. Those with low intelligence
are those with percentiles from 23.9 downwards.
Abstract: The measurement of aerodynamic forces and moments
acting on an aircraft model is important for the development of wind
tunnel measurement technology to predict the performance of the full
scale vehicle. The potentials of an aircraft model with and without
winglet and aerodynamic characteristics with NACA wing No. 65-3-
218 have been studied using subsonic wind tunnel of 1 m × 1 m
rectangular test section and 2.5 m long of Aerodynamics Laboratory
Faculty of Engineering (University Putra Malaysia). Focusing on
analyzing the aerodynamic characteristics of the aircraft model, two
main issues are studied in this paper. First, a six component wind
tunnel external balance is used for measuring lift, drag and pitching
moment. Secondly, Tests are conducted on the aircraft model with
and without winglet of two configurations at Reynolds numbers
1.7×105, 2.1×105, and 2.5×105 for different angle of attacks. Fuzzy
logic approach is found as efficient for the representation,
manipulation and utilization of aerodynamic characteristics.
Therefore, the primary purpose of this work was to investigate the
relationship between lift and drag coefficients, with free-stream
velocities and angle of attacks, and to illustrate how fuzzy logic
might play an important role in study of lift aerodynamic
characteristics of an aircraft model with the addition of certain
winglet configurations. Results of the developed fuzzy logic were
compared with the experimental results. For lift coefficient analysis,
the mean of actual and predicted values were 0.62 and 0.60
respectively. The coreelation between actual and predicted values
(from FLS model) of lift coefficient in different angle of attack was
found as 0.99. The mean relative error of actual and predicted valus
was found as 5.18% for the velocity of 26.36 m/s which was found to
be less than the acceptable limits (10%). The goodness of fit of
prediction value was 0.95 which was close to 1.0.
Abstract: Most of the real queuing systems include special properties and constraints, which can not be analyzed directly by using the results of solved classical queuing models. Lack of Markov chains features, unexponential patterns and service constraints, are the mentioned conditions. This paper represents an applied general algorithm for analysis and optimizing the queuing systems. The algorithm stages are described through a real case study. It is consisted of an almost completed non-Markov system with limited number of customers and capacities as well as lots of common exception of real queuing networks. Simulation is used for optimizing this system. So introduced stages over the following article include primary modeling, determining queuing system kinds, index defining, statistical analysis and goodness of fit test, validation of model and optimizing methods of system with simulation.
Abstract: Fuzzy logic system (FLS) is used in this study to
predict the tractive performance in terms of traction force, and
motion resistance for an intelligent air cushion track vehicle while it
operates in the swamp peat. The system is effective to control the
intelligent air –cushion system with measuring the vehicle traction
force (TF), motion resistance (MR), cushion clearance height (CH)
and cushion pressure (CP). Ultrasonic displacement sensor, pull-in
solenoid electromagnetic switch, pressure control sensor, micro
controller, and battery pH sensor are incorporated with the Fuzzy
logic system to investigate experimentally the TF, MR, CH, and CP.
In this study, a comparison for tractive performance of an intelligent
air cushion track vehicle has been performed with the results obtained
from the predicted values of FLS and experimental actual values. The
mean relative error of actual and predicted values from the FLS
model on traction force, and total motion resistance are found as 5.58
%, and 6.78 % respectively. For all parameters, the relative error of
predicted values are found to be less than the acceptable limits. The
goodness of fit of the prediction values from the FLS model on TF,
and MR are found as 0.90, and 0.98 respectively.
Abstract: This paper examines many mathematical methods for
molding the hourly price forward curve (HPFC); the model will be
constructed by numerous regression methods, like polynomial
regression, radial basic function neural networks & a furrier series.
Examination the models goodness of fit will be done by means of
statistical & graphical tools. The criteria for choosing the model will
depend on minimize the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), using the
correlation analysis approach for the regression analysis the optimal
model will be distinct, which are robust against model
misspecification. Learning & supervision technique employed to
determine the form of the optimal parameters corresponding to each
measure of overall loss. By using all the numerical methods that
mentioned previously; the explicit expressions for the optimal model
derived and the optimal designs will be implemented.