Abstract: Economic models are complex dynamic systems with a lot of uncertainties and fuzzy data. Conventional modeling approaches using well known methods and techniques cannot provide realistic and satisfactory answers to today-s challenging economic problems. Qualitative modeling using fuzzy logic and intelligent system theories can be used to model macroeconomic models. Fuzzy Cognitive maps (FCM) is a new method been used to model the dynamic behavior of complex systems. For the first time FCMs and the Mamdani Model of Intelligent control is used to model macroeconomic models. This new model is referred as the Mamdani Rule-Based Fuzzy Cognitive Map (MBFCM) and provides the academic and research community with a new promising integrated advanced computational model. A new economic model is developed for a qualitative approach to Macroeconomic modeling. Fuzzy Controllers for such models are designed. Simulation results for an economic scenario are provided and extensively discussed
Abstract: Modeling of complex dynamic systems, which are
very complicated to establish mathematical models, requires new and
modern methodologies that will exploit the existing expert
knowledge, human experience and historical data. Fuzzy cognitive
maps are very suitable, simple, and powerful tools for simulation and
analysis of these kinds of dynamic systems. However, human experts
are subjective and can handle only relatively simple fuzzy cognitive
maps; therefore, there is a need of developing new approaches for an
automated generation of fuzzy cognitive maps using historical data.
In this study, a new learning algorithm, which is called Big Bang-Big
Crunch, is proposed for the first time in literature for an automated
generation of fuzzy cognitive maps from data. Two real-world
examples; namely a process control system and radiation therapy
process, and one synthetic model are used to emphasize the
effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed methodology.
Abstract: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) is a causal graph, which shows the relations between essential components in complex systems. Experts who are familiar with the system components and their relations can generate a related FCM. There is a big gap when human experts cannot produce FCM or even there is no expert to produce the related FCM. Therefore, a new mechanism must be used to bridge this gap. In this paper, a novel learning method is proposed to construct causal graph based on historical data and by using metaheuristic such Tabu Search (TS). The efficiency of the proposed method is shown via comparison of its results of some numerical examples with those of some other methods.
Abstract: Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) have successfully
been applied in numerous domains to show relations between
essential components. In some FCM, there are more nodes, which
related to each other and more nodes means more complex in system
behaviors and analysis. In this paper, a novel learning method used to
construct FCMs based on historical data and by using data mining
and DEMATEL method, a new method defined to reduce nodes
number. This method cluster nodes in FCM based on their cause and
effect behaviors.