Abstract: This study examined cointegration and causal relationships between economic growth and regular domestic and international passenger air transport in Brazil. Total passengers embarked and disembarked were used as a proxy for air transport activity and gross domestic product (GDP) as a proxy for economic development. The test spanned the period from 2000 to 2015 for domestic passenger traffic and from 1995 to 2015 for international traffic. The results confirm the hypothesis that there is cointegration between passenger traffic series and economic development, showing a bi-directional Granger causal relationship between domestic traffic and economic development and unidirectional influence by economic growth on international passenger air transport demand. Variance decomposition of the series showed that domestic air transport was far more important than international transport to promoting economic development in Brazil.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.
Abstract: This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over
the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between
governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have
different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and
“Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no
Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in
“Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of
Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan,
there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic
growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South
Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve
their predictions of the future economic growth.
Abstract: In this study, attempt has been made to investigate the
relationship specifically the causal relation between fund unit prices
of Islamic equity unit trust fund which measure by fund NAV and the
selected macro-economic variables of Malaysian economy by using
VECM causality test and Granger causality test. Monthly data has
been used from Jan, 2006 to Dec, 2012 for all the variables. The
findings of the study showed that industrial production index,
political election and financial crisis are the only variables having
unidirectional causal relationship with fund unit price. However the
global oil price is having bidirectional causality with fund NAV.
Thus, it is concluded that the equity unit trust fund industry in
Malaysia is an inefficient market with respect to the industrial
production index, global oil prices, political election and financial
crisis. However the market is approaching towards informational
efficiency at least with respect to four macroeconomic variables,
treasury bill rate, money supply, foreign exchange rate, and
corruption index.
Abstract: The study is aimed to test causal relationship between
growth and unemployment, using time series data for Pakistan from
1972 to 2006. Growth is considered to be a pathway to decrease the
level of unemployment. Unemployment is a social and political
issue. It is a phenomenon where human resources are wasted leading
to deacceleration in growth. Johanson Cointegration shows that there
is long run relationship between growth and unemployment. For
short run dynamics and causality, the study utilizes Vector Error
Correction Model (VECM). The results of VECM indicate that there
is short and long run causal relation between growth and
unemployment including capital, labor and human capital as
explanatory variables.
Abstract: This paper proposes the hypothesis that multilateralism and regionalism are complementary, and that regional income convergence is likely with a like minded and committed regionalism that often has links geographically and culturally. The association between international trade, income per capita, and regional income convergence in founder members of ASEAN and SAARC, is explored by applying the Lumsdaine, and Papell approach. The causal relationships between the above variables are also studied in respective trade blocs by using Granger causality tests. The conclusion is that global reforms have had a greater impact on increasing trade for both trade blocs and induced convergence only in ASEAN-5 countries. The experience of ASEAN countries shows a two-way causal relationship between the flow from trade to regional income convergence, and vice versa. There is no evidence in SAARC countries for income convergence and causality.
Abstract: This study examines causal link between energy use and economic growth for five South Asian countries over period 1971-2006. Panel cointegration, ECM and FMOLS are applied for short and long run estimates. In short run unidirectional causality from per capita GDP to per capita energy consumption is found, but not vice versa. In long run one percent increase in per capita energy consumption tend to decrease 0.13 percent per capita GDP. i.e. Energy use discourage economic growth. This short and long run relationship indicate energy shortage crisis in South Asia due to increased energy use coupled with insufficient energy supply. Beside this long run estimated coefficient of error term suggest that short term adjustment to equilibrium are driven by adjustment back to long run equilibrium. Moreover, per capita energy consumption is responsive to adjustment back to equilibrium and it takes 59 years approximately. It specifies long run feedback between both variables.