Abstract: Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.
Abstract: Runoff,decreasing water levels and recharge in urban areas have been a complex issue now a days pointing defective urban design and increasing demography as cause. Very less has been discussed or analysed for water sensitive Urban Master Plans or local area plans. Land use planning deals with land transformation from natural areas into developed ones, which lead to changes in natural environment. Elaborated knowledge of relationship between the existing patterns of land use-land cover and recharge with respect to prevailing soil below is less as compared to speed of development. The parameters of incompatibility between urban functions and the functions of the natural environment are becoming various. Changes in land patterns due to built up, pavements, roads and similar land cover affects surface water flow seriously. It also changes permeability and absorption characteristics of the soil. Urban planners need to know natural processes along with modern means and best technologies available,as there is a huge gap between basic knowledge of natural processes and its requirement for balanced development planning leading to minimum impact on water recharge. The present paper analyzes the variations in land use land cover and their impacts on surface flows and sub-surface recharge in study area. The methodology adopted was to analyse the changes in land use and land cover using GIS and Civil 3d auto cad. The variations were used in computer modeling using Storm-water Management Model to find out the runoff for various soil groups and resulting recharge observing water levels in POW data for last 40 years of the study area. Results were anlayzed again to find best correlations for sustainable recharge in urban areas.
Abstract: A numerical technique in a boundary-fitted curvilinear grid model is developed to simulate the extent of inland inundation along the coastal belts of Peninsular Malaysia and Southern Thailand due to 2004 Indian ocean tsunami. Tsunami propagation and run-up are also studied in this paper. The vertically integrated shallow water equations are solved by using the method of lines (MOL). For this purpose the boundary-fitted grids are generated along the coastal and island boundaries and the other open boundaries of the model domain. A transformation is used to the governing equations so that the transformed physical domain is converted into a rectangular one. The MOL technique is applied to the transformed shallow water equations and the boundary conditions so that the equations are converted into ordinary differential equations initial value problem. Finally the 4th order Runge-Kutta method is used to solve these ordinary differential equations. The moving boundary technique is applied instead of fixed sea side wall or fixed coastal boundary to ensure the movement of the coastal boundary. The extent of intrusion of water and associated tsunami propagation are simulated for the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami along the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia and southern Thailand. The simulated results are compared with the results obtained from a finite difference model and the data available in the USGS website. All simulations show better approximation than earlier research and also show excellent agreement with the observed data.
Abstract: In the era of technological advancement, use of computer technology has become inevitable. Hence it has become the need of the hour to integrate software methods in engineering curriculum as a part to boost pedagogy techniques. Simulations software is a great help to graduates of disciplines such as electrical engineering. Since electrical engineering deals with high voltages and heavy instruments, extra care must be taken while operating with them. The viable solution would be to have appropriate control. The appropriate control could be well designed if engineers have knowledge of kind of waveforms associated with the system. Though these waveforms can be plotted manually, but it consumes a lot of time. Hence aid of simulation helps to understand steady state of system and resulting in better performance. In this paper computer, aided teaching of transformer is carried out using MATLAB/Simulink. The test carried out on a transformer includes open circuit test and short circuit respectively. The respective parameters of transformer are then calculated using the values obtained from open circuit and short circuit test respectively using Simulink.
Abstract: Based on a survey conducted for second and third year students of the electrical engineering department at Maharishi Markandeshwar University, India, it was found that around 92% of students felt that it would be better to introduce a virtual environment for laboratory experiments. Hence, a need was felt to perform modern pedagogy techniques for students which consist of a virtual environment using MATLAB/Simulink. In this paper, a virtual environment for the speed control of a DC motor is performed using MATLAB/Simulink. The various speed control methods for the DC motor include the field resistance control method and armature voltage control method. The performance analysis of the DC motor is hence analyzed.
Abstract: In this paper, we present the block generalized
minimal residual (BGMRES) method in order to solve the
generalized Sylvester matrix equation. However, this method may
not be converged in some problems. We construct a polynomial
preconditioner based on BGMRES which shows why polynomial
preconditioner is superior to some block solvers. Finally, numerical
experiments report the effectiveness of this method.
Abstract: Background and Objectives: Incidence of thyroid carcinoma has been increasing world-wide. In the present study, we evaluated diagnostic accuracy of Fine needle aspiration (FNA) and its efficiency in early detecting neoplastic lesions of thyroid gland over a 3-year period. Methods: Data have been retrieved from pathology files in King Khalid Hospital. For each patient, age, gender, FNA, site & size of nodule and final histopathologic diagnosis were recorded. Results: Study included 490 cases where 419 of them were female and 71 male. Male to female ratio was 1:6. Mean age was 43 years for males and 38 for females. Cases with confirmed histopathology were 131. In 101/131 (77.1%), concordance was found between FNA and histology. In 30/131 (22.9%), there was discrepancy in diagnosis. Total malignant cases were 43, out of which 14 (32.5%) were true positive and 29 (67.44%) were false negative. No false positive cases could be found in our series. Conclusion: FNA could diagnose benign nodules in all cases, however, in malignant cases, ultrasound findings have to be taken into consideration to avoid missing of a microcarcinoma in the contralateral lobe.
Abstract: A settlement strategy is to anticipate and respond the needs of existing and future communities through the provision of primary health care facilities in marginalized areas. Access to a health care network is important to improving healthcare coverage, often lacking, in developing countries. The study explores that a good sanitary system strategy of rural contexts brings advantages to an existing settlement: improving transport, communication, water and social facilities. The objective of this paper is to define a possible methodology to implement primary health care facilities in disadvantaged areas of emerging countries. In this research, we analyze the case study of Lauro de Freitas, a municipality in the Brazilian state of Bahia, part of the Metropolitan Region of Salvador, with an area of 57,662 km² and 194.641 inhabitants. The health localization system in Lauro de Freitas is an integrated process that involves not only geographical aspects, but also a set of factors: population density, epidemiological data, allocation of services, road networks, and more. Data were collected also using semi-structured interviews and questionnaires to the local population. Synthesized data suggest that moving away from the coast where there is the greatest concentration of population and services, a network of primary health care facilities is able to improve the living conditions of small-dispersed communities. Based on the health service needs of populations, we have developed a methodological approach that is particularly useful in rural and remote contexts in emerging countries.
Abstract: MDS matrices are of great significance in the design
of block ciphers and hash functions. In the present paper, we
investigate the problem of constructing MDS matrices which are
both lightweight and low-latency. We propose a new method of
constructing lightweight MDS matrices using circulant matrices
which can be implemented efficiently in hardware. Furthermore, we
provide circulant MDS matrices with as few bit XOR operations as
possible for the classical dimensions 4 × 4, 8 × 8 over the space of
linear transformations over finite field F42
. In contrast to previous
constructions of MDS matrices, our constructions have achieved
fewer XORs.
Abstract: Traditionally in sensor networks and recently in the
Internet of Things, numerous heterogeneous sensors are deployed
in distributed manner to monitor a phenomenon that often can be
model by an underlying stochastic process. The big time-series
data collected by the sensors must be analyzed to detect change
in the stochastic process as quickly as possible with tolerable
false alarm rate. However, sensors may have different accuracy
and sensitivity range, and they decay along time. As a result,
the big time-series data collected by the sensors will contain
uncertainties and sometimes they are conflicting. In this study, we
present a framework to take advantage of Evidence Theory (a.k.a.
Dempster-Shafer and Dezert-Smarandache Theories) capabilities of
representing and managing uncertainty and conflict to fast change
detection and effectively deal with complementary hypotheses.
Specifically, Kullback-Leibler divergence is used as the similarity
metric to calculate the distances between the estimated current
distribution with the pre- and post-change distributions. Then mass
functions are calculated and related combination rules are applied to
combine the mass values among all sensors. Furthermore, we applied
the method to estimate the minimum number of sensors needed to
combine, so computational efficiency could be improved. Cumulative
sum test is then applied on the ratio of pignistic probability to detect
and declare the change for decision making purpose. Simulation
results using both synthetic data and real data from experimental
setup demonstrate the effectiveness of the presented schemes.
Abstract: Confocal spectral interferometry (CSI) is an innovative optical method for determining microtopography of surfaces and thickness of transparent layers, based on the combination of two optical principles: confocal imaging, and spectral interferometry. Confocal optical system images at each instant a single point of the sample. The whole surface is reconstructed by plan scanning. The interference signal generated by mixing two white-light beams is analyzed using a spectrometer. In this work, five ‘rugotests’ of known standard roughnesses are investigated. The topography is then measured and illustrated, and the equivalent roughness is determined and compared with the standard values.
Abstract: Complicated unsteady flow in axial turbines produces high-frequency unsteady aerodynamic exciting force, which threatens the safe operation of turbines. This paper illustrates how negative-bowed stator reduces the rotor unsteady aerodynamic exciting force by unsteady flow field. With the support of three-dimensional viscous compressible Navier-Stokes equation, the single axial turbines with 0, -10 and -20 degree bowed stator are comparably investigated, aiming to identify the flow field structure difference caused by various negative-bowed degrees. The results show that negative-bowed stator strengthens the turbulence kinetic energy, which is further strengthened with the increase of negative-bowed degree. Meanwhile, the flow phenomenon including stator wakes and passage vortex is shown. In addition, the interaction of upstream negative-bowed wakes contributes to the reduction of unsteady blade load fluctuation. Furthermore, the aerodynamic exciting force decreases with the increasing negative bowed degree, while the efficiency is correspondingly reduced. This paper provides the reference for the alleviation of the harmful impact caused by unsteady interaction with the method of wake control.
Abstract: The opportunities of use of metallic magnesium as a generator of hydrogen gas, as well as thermal and electric energy is presented in the paper. Various schemes of magnesium application are discussed and power characteristics of corresponding devices are presented. Economic estimation of hydrogen price obtained by different methods is made, including the use of magnesium as a source of hydrogen for transportation in comparison with gasoline. Details and prospects of our new inexpensive technology of magnesium production from magnesium hydroxide and magnesium bearing rocks (which are available worldwide and in Armenia) are analyzed. It is estimated the threshold cost of Mg production at which application of this metal in power engineering is economically justified.
Abstract: In this research, the HABIT analysis methodology was established for Maanshan nuclear power plant (NPP). The Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), reports, and other data were used in this study. To evaluate the control room habitability under the CO2 storage burst, the HABIT methodology was used to perform this analysis. The HABIT result was below the R.G. 1.78 failure criteria. This indicates that Maanshan NPP habitability can be maintained. Additionally, the sensitivity study of the parameters (wind speed, atmospheric stability classification, air temperature, and control room intake flow rate) was also performed in this research.
Abstract: Reversible logic as a new favorable design domain can be used for various fields especially creating quantum computers because of its speed and intangible power consumption. However, its susceptibility to a variety of environmental effects may lead to yield the incorrect results. In this paper, because of the importance of multiplication operation in various computing systems, some novel reversible logic array multipliers are proposed with error detection capability by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. The new designs are presented for two main parts of array multipliers, partial product generation and multi-operand addition, by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates, which results in two signed parity-preserving array multipliers. The experimental results reveal that the best proposed 4×4 multiplier in this paper reaches 12%, 24%, and 26% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, number of required gates, and quantum cost, respectively, compared to previous design. Moreover, the best proposed design is generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.
Abstract: The main objective of this research was to study the differences of aluminum hydrolytic products between two PACl preparation methods. These two methods were the acidification process of freshly formed amorphous Al(OH)3 and the conventional alkalization process of aluminum chloride solution. According to Ferron test and 27Al NMR analysis of those two PACl preparation procedures, the reaction rate constant (k) values and Al13 percentage of acid addition process at high basicity value were both lower than those values of the alkaline addition process. The results showed that the molecular structure and size distribution of the aluminum species in both preparing methods were suspected to be significantly different at high basicity value.
Abstract: The review of selected methods of strengthening of steel structures with carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) tapes and the analysis of influence of composite materials on the steel thin-walled elements are performed in this paper. The study is also focused to the problem of applying fast and effective strengthening methods of the steel structures made of thin-walled profiles. It is worth noting that the issue of strengthening the thin-walled structures is a very complex, due to inability to perform welded joints in this type of elements and the limited ability to applying mechanical fasteners. Moreover, structures made of thin-walled cross-section demonstrate a high sensitivity to imperfections and tendency to interactive buckling, which may substantially contribute to the reduction of critical load capacity. Due to the lack of commonly used and recognized modern methods of strengthening of thin-walled steel structures, authors performed the experimental studies of thin-walled sigma profiles strengthened with CFRP tapes. The paper presents the experimental stand and the preliminary results of laboratory test concerning the analysis of the effectiveness of the strengthening steel beams made of thin-walled sigma profiles with CFRP tapes. The study includes six beams made of the cold-rolled sigma profiles with height of 140 mm, wall thickness of 2.5 mm, and a length of 3 m, subjected to the uniformly distributed load. Four beams have been strengthened with carbon fiber tape Sika CarboDur S, while the other two were tested without strengthening to obtain reference results. Based on the obtained results, the evaluation of the accuracy of applied composite materials for strengthening of thin-walled structures was performed.
Abstract: Pricing financial contracts on several underlying assets
received more and more interest as a demand for complex derivatives.
The option pricing under asset price involving jump diffusion
processes leads to the partial integral differential equation (PIDEs),
which is an extension of the Black-Scholes PDE with a new integral
term. The aim of this paper is to show how basket option prices
in the jump diffusion models, mainly on the Merton model, can
be computed using RBF based approximation methods. For a test
problem, the RBF-PU method is applied for numerical solution
of partial integral differential equation arising from the two-asset
European vanilla put options. The numerical result shows the
accuracy and efficiency of the presented method.
Abstract: Concrete, despite being one of the most produced materials in the world, still has weaknesses and drawbacks. Significant concern of the cementitious materials in structural applications is their quasi-brittle behavior, which causes the material to crack and lose its durability. One of the very recently proposed mitigations for this problem is the implementation of nanotechnology in the concrete mix by adding carbon nanotubes (CNTs) to it. CNTs can enhance the critical mechanical properties of concrete as a structural material. Thus, this paper demonstrates a state-of-the-art review of reinforcing concrete with CNTs, emphasizing on the structural performance. It also goes over the properties of CNTs alone, the present methods and costs associated with producing them, the possible special applications of concretes reinforced with CNTs, the key challenges and drawbacks that this new technology still encounters, and the most reliable practices and methodologies to produce CNT-reinforced concrete in the lab. This work has shown that the addition of CNTs to the concrete mix in percentages as low as 0.25% weight of cement could increase the flexural strength and toughness of concrete by more than 45% and 25%, respectively, and enhance other durability-related properties, given that an effective dispersion of CNTs in the cementitious mix is achieved. Since nano reinforcement for cementitious materials is a new technology, many challenges have to be tackled before it becomes practiced at the mass level.
Abstract: In the paper we make linear and non-linear stability
analyses of Rayleigh-Bénard convection of a Newtonian nanoliquid
in a rotating medium (called as Rayleigh-Bénard-Taylor convection).
Rigid-rigid isothermal boundaries are considered for investigation.
Khanafer-Vafai-Lightstone single phase model is used for studying
instabilities in nanoliquids. Various thermophysical properties of
nanoliquid are obtained using phenomenological laws and mixture
theory. The eigen boundary value problem is solved for the Rayleigh
number using an analytical method by considering trigonometric
eigen functions. We observe that the critical nanoliquid Rayleigh
number is less than that of the base liquid. Thus the onset of
convection is advanced due to the addition of nanoparticles. So,
increase in volume fraction leads to advanced onset and thereby
increase in heat transport. The amplitudes of convective modes
required for estimating the heat transport are determined analytically.
The tri-modal standard Lorenz model is derived for the steady state
assuming small scale convective motions. The effect of rotation on
the onset of convection and on heat transport is investigated and
depicted graphically. It is observed that the onset of convection is
delayed due to rotation and hence leads to decrease in heat transport.
Hence, rotation has a stabilizing effect on the system. This is due to
the fact that the energy of the system is used to create the component
V. We observe that the amount of heat transport is less in the case
of rigid-rigid isothermal boundaries compared to free-free isothermal
boundaries.