Abstract: This paper deals with a simulation programs and
technologies using in the educational process for members of the crisis
management. Risk analysis, simulation, preparation and planning are
among the main activities of workers of crisis management. Made
correctly simulation of emergency defines the extent of the danger. On
this basis, it is possible to effectively prepare and plan measures to
minimize damage. The paper is focused on simulation programs that
are trained at the University of Defence. Implementation of the outputs
from simulation programs in decision-making processes of crisis staffs
is one of the main tasks of the research project.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a multi-agent intelligent
system that is used for monitoring the health conditions of elderly
people. Monitoring the health condition of elderly people is a
complex problem that involves different medical units and requires
continuous monitoring. Such expert system is highly needed in rural
areas because of inadequate number of available specialized
physicians or nurses. Such monitoring must have autonomous
interactions between these medical units in order to be effective. A
multi-agent system is formed by a community of agents that
exchange information and proactively help one another to achieve the
goal of elderly monitoring. The agents in the developed system are
equipped with intelligent decision maker that arms them with the
rule-based reasoning capability that can assist the physicians in
making decisions regarding the medical condition of elderly people.
Abstract: In the 13th Malaysia’s General Elections held in 2013,
it was observed that large numbers of urban constituencies saw
strongly decisive young voters (between 21-39 age group) determine
the outcome in their favour. Also, the Elections Commission had
approximated that 70% of some 4.2 million unregistered voters at the
time were citizens aged between 21 and 40 years old. If they are not
already considered an important form of political leverage, 450,000
young Malaysians turn 21 years old each year. Further compounding
this fact were the 2.4 million new voters registered in 2012, which at
the time constituted almost 30% of the entire voting population. This
article discusses the importance of issues for the youth, with
reference to the university students in Malaysia in their decision
making on polling day.
Abstract: This work proposes a fuzzy methodology to support
the investment decisions. While choosing among competitive
investment projects, the methodology makes ranking of projects
using the new aggregation OWA operator – AsPOWA, presented in
the environment of possibility uncertainty. For numerical evaluation
of the weighting vector associated with the AsPOWA operator the
mathematical programming problem is constructed. On the basis of
the AsPOWA operator the projects’ group ranking maximum criteria
is constructed. The methodology also allows making the most
profitable investments into several of the project using the method
developed by the authors for discrete possibilistic bicriteria problems.
The article provides an example of the investment decision-making
that explains the work of the proposed methodology.
Abstract: The work proposes a decision support methodology
for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects.
The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation.
Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made
using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of
chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis
Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of
Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.
Abstract: The ever increasing amount of solid waste (SW)
generated which is exacerbated by lack of proper waste management
system is of growing concern worldwide and in major cities in
developing countries due to its social, economic and environmental
implications. This study attempts to describe the aspects of solid
waste management (SWM) in Adama, one of the fast urbanizing
cities in Ethiopia, and highlights the challenges thereof. Data were
gathered through interview supplemented by field observation and
self-administered questionnaire. Then, the data were analyzed using
the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software. In
addition, secondary data were gathered from documents. Findings
revealed that the current SWM practice couldn’t cope with the fast
urbanizing needs and the rapid population growth exhibited by the
city. Besides, major factors contributing to the inefficient system
were identified. The study would provide practical insights to
decision makers in developing a sustainable SWM system leading to
minimized risk in the city.
Abstract: In this paper the issue of dimensionality reduction is
investigated in finger vein recognition systems using kernel Principal
Component Analysis (KPCA). One aspect of KPCA is to find the
most appropriate kernel function on finger vein recognition as there
are several kernel functions which can be used within PCA-based
algorithms. In this paper, however, another side of PCA-based
algorithms -particularly KPCA- is investigated. The aspect of
dimension of feature vector in PCA-based algorithms is of
importance especially when it comes to the real-world applications
and usage of such algorithms. It means that a fixed dimension of
feature vector has to be set to reduce the dimension of the input and
output data and extract the features from them. Then a classifier is
performed to classify the data and make the final decision. We
analyze KPCA (Polynomial, Gaussian, and Laplacian) in details in
this paper and investigate the optimal feature extraction dimension in
finger vein recognition using KPCA.
Abstract: The purposes of this study were to design and find
users’ satisfaction after using the decision support system for tourism
northern part of Thailand, which can provide tourists touristic
information and plan their personal voyage. Such information can be
retrieved systematically based on personal budget and provinces. The
samples of this study were five experts and users 30 persons white
collars in Bangkok. This decision support system was designed via
ASP.NET. Its database was developed by using MySQL, for
administrators are able to effectively manage the database. The
application outcome revealed that the innovation works properly as
sought in objectives. Specialists and white collars in Bangkok have
evaluated the decision support system; the result was satisfactorily
positive.
Abstract: This paper presents the application of finite dynamic
programming, specifically the "Markov Chain" model, as part of the
decision making process of a company in the cosmetics sector located
in the vicinity of Bogota DC. The objective of this process was to
decide whether the company should completely reconstruct its
wastewater treatment plant or instead optimize the plant through the
addition of equipment. The goal of both of these options was to make
the required improvements in order to comply with parameters
established by national legislation regarding the treatment of waste
before it is released into the environment. This technique will allow
the company to select the best option and implement a solution for
the processing of waste to minimize environmental damage and the
acquisition and implementation costs.
Abstract: ‘Steganalysis’ is one of the challenging and attractive interests for the researchers with the development of information hiding techniques. It is the procedure to detect the hidden information from the stego created by known steganographic algorithm. In this paper, a novel feature based image steganalysis technique is proposed. Various statistical moments have been used along with some similarity metric. The proposed steganalysis technique has been designed based on transformation in four wavelet domains, which include Haar, Daubechies, Symlets and Biorthogonal. Each domain is being subjected to various classifiers, namely K-nearest-neighbor, K* Classifier, Locally weighted learning, Naive Bayes classifier, Neural networks, Decision trees and Support vector machines. The experiments are performed on a large set of pictures which are available freely in image database. The system also predicts the different message length definitions.
Abstract: In this paper, we present a new maintenance model
for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes,
namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system
degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the
degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A
cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining
the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov
decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is
developed, illustrated by a numerical example.
Abstract: The Analytic Hierarchy Process is frequently used
approach for solving decision making problems. There exists wide
range of software programs utilizing that approach. Their main
disadvantage is that they are relatively expensive and missing
intermediate calculations. This work introduces a Microsoft Excel
add-in called DAME – Decision Analysis Module for Excel.
Comparing to other computer programs DAME is free, can work
with scenarios or multiple decision makers and displays intermediate
calculations. Users can structure their decision models into three
levels – scenarios/users, criteria and variants. Items on all levels can
be evaluated either by weights or pair-wise comparisons. There are
provided three different methods for the evaluation of the weights of
criteria, the variants as well as the scenarios – Saaty’s Method,
Geometric Mean Method and Fuller’s Triangle Method.
Multiplicative and additive syntheses are supported. The proposed
software package is demonstrated on couple of illustrating examples
of real life decision problems.
Abstract: The paper deals with the importance of information flow for providing of defined level of customer service in the firms. Setting of the criteria for the selection and implementation of logistics information system is a prerequisite for ensuring of the flow of information in firms. The decision on the selection and implementation of logistics information system is linked to the investment costs and operating costs, which are included in the total logistics costs. The article also deals with the conclusions of the research focused on the logistics information system selection in companies in the Czech Republic.
Abstract: Turbulent flow in complex geometries receives considerable attention due to its importance in many engineering applications. It has been the subject of interest for many researchers. Some of these interests include the design of storm water channels. The design of these channels requires testing through physical models. The main practical limitation of physical models is the so called “scale effect”, that is, the fact that in many cases only primary physical mechanisms can be correctly represented, while secondary mechanisms are often distorted. These observations form the basis of our study, which centered on problems associated with the design of storm water channels near the Dead Sea, in Israel. To help reach a final design decision we used different physical models. Our research showed good coincidence with the results of laboratory tests and theoretical calculations, and allowed us to study different effects of fluid flow in an open channel. We determined that problems of this nature cannot be solved only by means of theoretical calculation and computer simulation. This study demonstrates the use of physical models to help resolve very complicated problems of fluid flow through baffles and similar structures. The study applies these models and observations to different construction and multiphase water flows, among them, those that include sand and stone particles, a significant attempt to bring to the testing laboratory a closer association with reality.
Abstract: Multi-component data envelopment analysis (MC-DEA) is a popular technique for measuring aggregate performance of the decision making units (DMUs) along with their components. However, the conventional MC-DEA is limited to crisp input and output data which may not always be available in exact form. In real life problems, data may be imprecise or fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we propose (i) a fuzzy MC-DEA (FMC-DEA) model in which shared and undesirable fuzzy resources are incorporated, (ii) the proposed FMC-DEA model is transformed into a pair of crisp models using α cut approach, (iii) fuzzy aggregate performance of a DMU and fuzzy efficiencies of components are defined to be fuzzy numbers, and (iv) a numerical example is illustrated to validate the proposed approach.
Abstract: Decision making is a vital part of the business world
and any other field of human endeavor. Which way a business
organization will take, and where that way will lead it, depends on
broad range of decisions made by managers in the managerial
structure. Strategic decisions are of the greatest importance for
organizational success. Although much empirical research has been
done trying to describe and explain its nature and effectiveness,
knowledge about strategic decision making is still incomplete. This
paper explores the nature of strategic decision making in particular
setting - in Croatian companies. The main focus of this research is on
the style that decision makers on strategic management level are
following when making decisions of life importance for their
companies. Two main decision making style that explain the way
decision maker collects and processes available information and
performs all the activities in strategic decision making process were
empirical tested: rational and intuitive one. Besides analyzing their
existence on strategic management level in Croatian companies, their
effectiveness is analyzed as well. Results showed that decision
makers at strategic management level are following both styles
somewhat equally in order to function effectively, and that intuitive
style is more effective when considering decisions outcomes.
Abstract: In recent years, in addition to face the external threats such as energy shortages and climate change, traffic congestion and environmental pollution have become anxious problems for many cities. Considering private automobile-oriented urban development had produced many negative environmental and social impacts, the transit-oriented development (TOD) has been considered as a sustainable urban model. TOD encourages public transport combined with friendly walking and cycling environment designs, however, non-motorized modes help improving human health, energy saving, and reducing carbon emissions. Due to environmental changes often affect the planners’ decision-making; this research applies dynamic network process (DNP) which includes the time dependent concept to promoting friendly walking and cycling environmental designs as an advanced planning support system for environment improvements.
This research aims to discuss what kinds of design strategies can improve a friendly walking and cycling environment under TOD. First of all, we collate and analyze environment designing factors by reviewing the relevant literatures as well as divide into three aspects of “safety”, “convenience”, and “amenity” from fifteen environment designing factors. Furthermore, we utilize fuzzy Delphi Technique (FDT) expert questionnaire to filter out the more important designing criteria for the study case. Finally, we utilized DNP expert questionnaire to obtain the weights changes at different time points for each design criterion. Based on the changing trends of each criterion weight, we are able to develop appropriate designing strategies as the reference for planners to allocate resources in a dynamic environment. In order to illustrate the approach we propose in this research, Taipei city as one example has been used as an empirical study, and the results are in depth analyzed to explain the application of our proposed approach.
Abstract: Tsunami early detection and warning systems have proved to be of ultimate importance, especially after the destructive tsunami that hit Japan in March 2012. Such systems are crucial to inform the authorities of any risk of a tsunami and of the degree of its danger in order to make the right decision and notify the public of the actions they need to take to save their lives. The purpose of this research is to enhance existing tsunami detection and warning systems. We first propose an automated and miniaturized model of an early tsunami detection and warning system. The model for the operation of a tsunami warning system is simulated using the data acquisition toolbox of Matlab and measurements acquired from specified internet pages due to the lack of the required real-life sensors, both seismic and hydrologic, and building a graphical user interface for the system. In the second phase of this work, we implement various satellite image filtering schemes to enhance the acquired synthetic aperture radar images of the tsunami affected region that are masked by speckle noise. This enables us to conduct a post-tsunami damage extent study and calculate the percentage damage. We conclude by proposing improvements to the existing telecommunication infrastructure of existing warning tsunami systems using a migration to IP-based networks and fiber optics links.
Abstract: The Ballast Water Convention requires less than 5% of the world tonnage for ratification. Consequently, ships will have to comply with the requirements. Compliance evaluation and enforcement will become mandatory. Ship owners have to invest in treatment systems and shipboard personnel have to operate them and ensure compliance. The monitoring and enforcement will be the responsibilities of the Administrations. Herein, a review of the current status of the Ballast Water Management and the issues faced by these are projected. Issues range from efficacy and economics of the treatment systems to sampling and testing. Health issues of chemical systems, paucity of data for decision support etc., are other issues. It is emphasized that management of ballast water must be extended to ashore and sustainable solutions must be researched upon. An exemplar treatment system based on ship’s waste heat is also suggested.
Abstract: Accurate Short Term Load Forecasting (STLF) is essential for a variety of decision making processes. However, forecasting accuracy can drop due to the presence of uncertainty in the operation of energy systems or unexpected behavior of exogenous variables. Interval Type 2 Fuzzy Logic System (IT2 FLS), with additional degrees of freedom, gives an excellent tool for handling uncertainties and it improved the prediction accuracy. The training data used in this study covers the period from January 1, 2012 to February 1, 2012 for winter season and the period from July 1, 2012 to August 1, 2012 for summer season. The actual load forecasting period starts from January 22, till 28, 2012 for winter model and from July 22 till 28, 2012 for summer model. The real data for Iraqi power system which belongs to the Ministry of Electricity.