Risk Management Approach for a Secure and Performant Integration of Automated Drug Dispensing Systems in Hospitals

Medication dispensing system is a life-critical system whose failure may result in preventable adverse events leading to longer patient stays in hospitals or patient death. Automation has led to great improvements in life-critical systems as it increased safety, efficiency, and comfort. However, critical risks related to medical organization complexity and automated solutions integration can threaten drug dispensing security and performance. Knowledge about the system’s complexity aspects and human machine parameters to control for automated equipment’s security and performance will help operators to secure their automation process and to optimize their system’s reliability. In this context, this study aims to document the operator’s situation awareness about automation risks and parameters involved in automation security and performance. Our risk management approach has been deployed in the North Luxembourg hospital center’s pharmacy, which is equipped with automated drug dispensing systems since 2009. With more than 4 million euros of gains generated, North Luxembourg hospital center’s success story was enabled by the management commitment, pharmacy’s involvement in the implementation and improvement of the automation project, and the close collaboration between the pharmacy and Sinteco’s firm to implement the necessary innovation and organizational actions for automated solutions integration security and performance. An analysis of the actions implemented by the hospital and the parameters involved in automated equipment’s integration security and performance has been made. The parameters to control for automated equipment’s integration security and performance are human aspects (6.25%), technical aspects (50%), and human-machine interaction (43.75%). The implementation of an anthropocentric analysis system before automation would have prevented and optimized the control of risks related to automation.

Lifelong Distance Learning and Skills Development: A Case Study Analysis in Greece

Distance learning provides a flexible approach to education, enabling busy learners to complete their coursework at their own pace, on their own schedule, and from a convenient location. This flexibility combined with a series of other issues; make the benefits of lifelong distance learning numerous. The purpose of the paper is to investigate whether distance education can contribute to the improvement of adult skills in Greece, highlighting in this way the necessity of the lifelong distance learning. To investigate this goal, a questionnaire is constructed and analyzed based on responses from 3,016 attendees of lifelong distance learning programs in the e-learning of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens in Greece. In order to do so, a series of relationships is examined including the effects of a) the gender, b) the previous educational level, c) the current employment status, and d) the method used in the distance learning program, on the development of new general, technical, administrative, social, cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills. The basic conclusions that emerge after using a binary logistic framework are that the following factors are critical in order to develop new skills: the gender, the education level and the educational method used in the lifelong distance learning program. The skills more significantly affected by those factors are the acquiring new skills in general, as well as acquiring general, language and cultural, entrepreneurial and green skills, while for technical and social skills only gender and educational method play a crucial role. Moreover, routine skills and social skills are not affected by the four factors included in the analysis.

Carnatic Music Ragas and Their Role in Music Therapy

Raga, as the soul and base, is a distinctive musical entity, in the music system, with unique structure on its construction of srutis (musical sounds) and application. One of the essential components of the music system is the ‘tala’ that defines the rhythm of a song. There are seven basic swaras (notes) Sa, Ri, Ga, Ma, Pa, Da and Ni in the carnatic music system that are analogous to the C, D, E, F, G, A and B of the western system. The carnatic music further builds on conscious use of microtones, gamakams (oscillation) and rendering styles. It has basic 72 ragas known as melakarta ragas, and a plethora of ragas have been developed from them with permutations and combinations of the basic swaras. Among them, some ragas derived from a same melakarta raga are distinctly different from each other and could evoke a profound difference in the raga bhava (emotion) during rendering. Although these could bear similar arohana and avarohana swaras, their quintessential differences in the gamakas usage and srutis present therein offer varied melodic feelings; variations in the intonation and stress given to certain swara phrases are the root causes. This article enlightens a group of such allied ragas (AR) from the perspectives of their schema and raga alapana (improvisation), ranjaka prayogas (signature phrases), differences in rendering tempo, gamakas and delicate srutis along with the range of sancharas (musical phrases). The intricate differences on the sruti frequencies and use of AR in composing kritis (musical compositions) toward emotive accomplishments such as mood of valor, kindness, love, humor, anger, mercy to name few, have also been explored. A brief review on the existing scientific research on the music therapy on some of the Carnatic ragas is presented. Studying and comprehending the AR, indeed, enable the music aspirants to gain a thorough knowledge on the subtle nuances among the ragas. Such knowledge helps leave a long-lasting melodic impression on the listeners and enable further research on the music therapy.

An Epidemiological Study on an Outbreak of Gastroenteritis Linked to Dinner Served at a Senior High School in Accra

Background: An outbreak of gastroenteritis occurred in December 2019 after students of a Senior High School in Accra were served with kenkey and fish during their dinner. An investigation was conducted to characterize the affected people, the source of contamination, the etiologic food and agent. Methods: An epidemiological study was conducted with cases selected from the student population who were ill. Controls were selected from among students who also ate from the school canteen during dinner but were not ill. Food history of each case and control was taken to assess their exposure status. Epi Info 7 was used to analyze the data obtained from the outbreak. Attack rates and odds ratios were calculated to determine the risk of foodborne infection for each of the foods consumed by the population. The source of contamination of the foods was ascertained by conducting an environmental risk assessment at the school. Results: Data were obtained from 126 students, out of which 57 (45.2%) were cases and 69 (54.8%) were controls. The cases presented with symptoms such as diarrhea (85.96%), abdominal cramps (66.67%), vomiting (50.88%), headache (21.05%), fever (17.86%) and nausea (3.51%). The peak incubation period was 18 hours with a minimum and maximum incubation periods of 6 and 50 hours respectively. From the incubation period, duration of illness and the symptoms, non-typhoidal salmonellosis was suspected. Multivariate analysis indicated that the illness was associated with the consumption of the fried fish served, however this was statistically insignificant (AOR 3.1.00, P = 0.159). No stool, blood or food samples were available for organism isolation and confirmation of suspected etiologic agent. The environmental risk assessment indicated poor hand washing practices on the part of both the food handlers and students. Conclusion: The outbreak could probably be due to the consumption of the fried fish that might have been contaminated with Salmonella sp. as a result of poor hand washing practices in the school.

From Ritual City to Modern City: The City Space Transformation of Xi’an in the Early 20th Century

The urban layout of Xi’an city (the capital Chang’an in the Tang dynasty) was shaped by feudal etiquette, but this dominant factor was replaced by modern city planning during the period of the Republic of China. This makes Xi’an a representative case to explore the transformation process of Chinese cities in the early 20th century. By analyzing the contrast and connection between the historical texts of city planning and the realistic construction activities recorded by the maps and images, this paper reviews the transformation process of the urban space of Xi’an in the early 20th century and divides it into four phases according to important events that significantly impacted planning and construction activities. Based on this, the entire transformation of Xi’an’s city planning and practices can be characterized by three aspects: 1) the dominant force of the city plan and construction changed with the establishment of modern city administrations; 2) the layout of the city was continuously broadened to meet the demand of modern economy and city life; and, 3) the ritual space was transformed into practical space for commercial and recreational activities.

Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System: System Overview and Sizing Principles

The optimal size of a photovoltaic (PV) array is considered a critical factor in designing an efficient PV system due to the dependence of the PV cell performance on temperature. A high temperature can lead to voltage losses of solar panels, whereas a low temperature can cause voltage overproduction. There are two possible scenarios of the inverter’s operation in which they are associated with the erroneous calculations of the number of PV panels: 1) If the number of the panels is scant and the temperature is high, the minimum voltage required to operate the inverter will not be reached. As a result, the inverter will shut down. 2) Comparably, if the number of panels is excessive and the temperature is low, the produced voltage will be more than the maximum limit of the inverter which can cause the inverter to get disconnected or even damaged. This article aims to assess theoretical and practical methodologies to calculate size and determine the topology of a PV array. The results are validated by applying an experimental evaluation for a 100 kW Grid-connected PV system for a location in Halifax, Nova Scotia and achieving a satisfactory system performance compared to the previous work done.

A Review on the Potential of Electric Vehicles in Reducing World CO2 Footprints

The conventional Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) based vehicles are a threat to the environment as they account for a large proportion of the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the world. Hence, it is required to replace these vehicles with more environment-friendly vehicles. Electric Vehicles (EVs) are promising technologies which offer both human comfort “noise, pollution” as well as reduced (or no) emissions of GHGs. In this paper, different types of EVs are reviewed and their advantages and disadvantages are identified. It is found that in terms of fuel economy, Plug-in Hybrid EVs (PHEVs) have the best fuel economy, followed by Hybrid EVs (HEVs) and ICE vehicles. Since Battery EVs (BEVs) do not use any fuel, their fuel economy is estimated as price per kilometer. Similarly, in terms of GHG emissions, BEVs are the most environmentally friendly since they do not result in any emissions while HEVs and PHEVs produce less emissions compared to the conventional ICE based vehicles. Fuel Cell EVs (FCEVs) are also zero-emission vehicles, but they have large costs associated with them. Finally, if the electricity is provided by using the renewable energy technologies through grid connection, then BEVs could be considered as zero emission vehicles.

Enhancement of Accountability within the South African Public Sector: Knowledge Gained from the Case of a National Commissioner of the South African Police Service

The paper scrutinizes the literature on accountability and non-accountability, and then presents an analysis of a South African case which demonstrated consequences of a lack of accountability. Ethical conduct displayed by members of the public sector is integral to creating a sustainable democratic government, which upholds the constitutional tenets of accountability, transparency and professional ethicality. Furthermore, a true constitutional democracy emphasises and advocates the notion of service leadership that nurtures public participation and engages with citizens in a positive manner. Ethical conduct and accountability in the public sector earns public trust; hence these are key principles in good governance. Yet, in the years since the advent of democracy in South Africa, the government has been plagued by rampant corruption and mal-administration by public officials and politicians in leadership positions. The control measures passed by government in an attempt to ensure ethicality and accountability within the public sector include codes of ethics, rules of conduct and the enactment of legislation. These are intended to shape the mindset of members of the public sector, with the ultimate aim of an efficient, effective, ethical, responsive and accountable public service. The purpose of the paper is to analyse control systems and accountability within the public sector and to present reasons for non-accountability by means of a selected case study. The selected case study is the corruption trial of Jackie Selebi, who served as National Commissioner of the South African Police Service but was dismissed from the post. The reasons for non-accountability in the public sector as well as recommendations based on the findings to enhance accountability will be undertaken. The case study demonstrates the experience and impact of corruption and/or mal-administration, as a result of a lack of accountability, which has contributed to the increasing loss of confidence in political leadership in the country as elsewhere in the world. The literature is applied to the erstwhile National Commissioner of the South African Police Service and President of Interpol, as a case study of non-accountability.

Irrigation Water Quality Evaluation Based on Multivariate Statistical Analysis: A Case Study of Jiaokou Irrigation District

Groundwater is main source of water supply in the Guanzhong Basin, China. To investigate the quality of groundwater for agricultural purposes in Jiaokou Irrigation District located in the east of the Guanzhong Basin, 141 groundwater samples were collected for analysis of major ions (K+, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+, SO42-, Cl-, HCO3-, and CO32-), pH, and total dissolved solids (TDS). Sodium percentage (Na%), residual sodium carbonate (RSC), magnesium hazard (MH), and potential salinity (PS) were applied for irrigation water quality assessment. In addition, multivariate statistical techniques were used to identify the underlying hydrogeochemical processes. Results show that the content of TDS mainly depends on Cl-, Na+, Mg2+, and SO42-, and the HCO3- content is generally high except for the eastern sand area. These are responsible for complex hydrogeochemical processes, such as dissolution of carbonate minerals (dolomite and calcite), gypsum, halite, and silicate minerals, the cation exchange, as well as evaporation and concentration. The average evaluation levels of Na%, RSC, MH, and PS for irrigation water quality are doubtful, good, unsuitable, and injurious to unsatisfactory, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary for decision makers to comprehensively consider the indicators and thus reasonably evaluate the irrigation water quality.

Comparison of Two Maintenance Policies for a Two-Unit Series System Considering General Repair

In recent years, maintenance optimization has attracted special attention due to the growth of industrial systems complexity. Maintenance costs are high for many systems, and preventive maintenance is effective when it increases operations' reliability and safety at a reduced cost. The novelty of this research is to consider general repair in the modeling of multi-unit series systems and solve the maintenance problem for such systems using the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. We propose an opportunistic maintenance policy for a series system composed of two main units. Unit 1, which is more expensive than unit 2, is subjected to condition monitoring, and its deterioration is modeled using a gamma process. Unit 1 hazard rate is estimated by the proportional hazards model (PHM), and two hazard rate control limits are considered as the thresholds of maintenance interventions for unit 1. Maintenance is performed on unit 2, considering an age control limit. The objective is to find the optimal control limits and minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. The proposed algorithm is applied to a numerical example to compare the effectiveness of the proposed policy (policy Ⅰ) with policy Ⅱ, which is similar to policy Ⅰ, but instead of general repair, replacement is performed. Results show that policy Ⅰ leads to lower average cost compared with policy Ⅱ. 

AI Tutor: A Computer Science Domain Knowledge Graph-Based QA System on JADE platform

In this paper, we proposed an AI Tutor using ontology and natural language process techniques to generate a computer science domain knowledge graph and answer users’ questions based on the knowledge graph. We define eight types of relation to extract relationships between entities according to the computer science domain text. The AI tutor is separated into two agents: learning agent and Question-Answer (QA) agent and developed on JADE (a multi-agent system) platform. The learning agent is responsible for reading text to extract information and generate a corresponding knowledge graph by defined patterns. The QA agent can understand the users’ questions and answer humans’ questions based on the knowledge graph generated by the learning agent.

Electronics Thermal Management Driven Design of an IP65-Rated Motor Inverter

Thermal management of electronic components packaged inside an IP65 rated enclosure is of prime importance in industrial applications. Electrical enclosure protects the multiple board configurations such as inverter, power, controller board components, busbars, and various power dissipating components from harsh environments. Industrial environments often experience relatively warm ambient conditions, and the electronic components housed in the enclosure dissipate heat, due to which the enclosures and the components require thermal management as well as reduction of internal ambient temperatures. Design of Experiments based thermal simulation approach with MOSFET arrangement, Heat sink design, Enclosure Volume, Copper and Aluminum Spreader, Power density, and Printed Circuit Board (PCB) type were considered to optimize air temperature inside the IP65 enclosure to ensure conducive operating temperature for controller board and electronic components through the different modes of heat transfer viz. conduction, natural convection and radiation using Ansys ICEPAK. MOSFET’s with the parallel arrangement, IP65 enclosure molded heat sink with rectangular fins on both enclosures, specific enclosure volume to satisfy the power density, Copper spreader to conduct heat to the enclosure, optimized power density value and selecting Aluminum clad PCB which improves the heat transfer were the contributors towards achieving a conducive operating temperature inside the IP-65 rated Motor Inverter enclosure. A reduction of 52 ℃ was achieved in internal ambient temperature inside the IP65 enclosure between baseline and final design parameters, which met the operative temperature requirements of the electronic components inside the IP-65 rated Motor Inverter.

Electronic Structure Calculation of AsSiTeB/SiAsBTe Nanostructures Using Density Functional Theory

The electronic structure calculation for the nanoclusters of AsSiTeB/SiAsBTe quaternary semiconductor alloy belonging to the III-V Group elements was performed. Motivation for this research work was to look for accurate electronic and geometric data of small nanoclusters of AsSiTeB/SiAsBTe in the gaseous form. The two clusters, one in the linear form and the other in the bent form, were studied under the framework of Density Functional Theory (DFT) using the B3LYP functional and LANL2DZ basis set with the software packaged Gaussian 16. We have discussed the Optimized Energy, Frontier Orbital Energy Gap in terms of HOMO-LUMO, Dipole Moment, Ionization Potential, Electron Affinity, Binding Energy, Embedding Energy, Density of States (DoS) spectrum for both structures. The important findings of the predicted nanostructures are that these structures have wide band gap energy, where linear structure has band gap energy (Eg) value is 2.375 eV and bent structure (Eg) value is 2.778 eV. Therefore, these structures can be utilized as wide band gap semiconductors. These structures have high electron affinity value of 4.259 eV for the linear structure and electron affinity value of 3.387 eV for the bent structure form. It shows that electron acceptor capability is high for both forms. The widely known application of these compounds is in the light emitting diodes due to their wide band gap nature.

Transcriptomics Analysis on Comparing Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer versus Normal Lung, and Early Stage Compared versus Late-Stages of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Lung cancer is one of the most common malignancies and primary cause of death due to cancer worldwide. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the main subtype in which majority of patients present with advanced-stage disease. Herein, we analyzed differentially expressed genes to find potential biomarkers for lung cancer diagnosis as well as prognostic markers. We used transcriptome data from our 2 NSCLC patients and public data (GSE81089) composing of 8 NSCLC and 10 normal lung tissues. Differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between NSCLC and normal tissue and between early-stage and late-stage NSCLC were analyzed by the DESeq2. Pairwise correlation was used to find the DEGs with false discovery rate (FDR) adjusted p-value £ 0.05 and |log2 fold change| ³ 4 for NSCLC versus normal and FDR adjusted p-value £ 0.05 with |log2 fold change| ³ 2 for early versus late-stage NSCLC. Bioinformatic tools were used for functional and pathway analysis. Moreover, the top ten genes in each comparison group were verified the expression and survival analysis via GEPIA. We found 150 up-regulated and 45 down-regulated genes in NSCLC compared to normal tissues. Many immnunoglobulin-related genes e.g., IGHV4-4, IGHV5-10-1, IGHV4-31, IGHV4-61, and IGHV1-69D were significantly up-regulated. 22 genes were up-regulated, and five genes were down-regulated in late-stage compared to early-stage NSCLC. The top five DEGs genes were KRT6B, SPRR1A, KRT13, KRT6A and KRT5. Keratin 6B (KRT6B) was the most significantly increased gene in the late-stage NSCLC. From GEPIA analysis, we concluded that IGHV4-31 and IGKV1-9 might be used as diagnostic biomarkers, while KRT6B and KRT6A might be used as prognostic biomarkers. However, further clinical validation is needed.

The Relations among Business Model, Higher Education, University and Entrepreneurship Education: An Analysis of Academic Literature of 2009-2019 Period

Business model (BM) is a term that has been receiving the attention of scholars and practitioners and has been consolidating itself as a field of study and research. Although there is no agreement in the academic literature on the definition of BM, at least there is an explicit agreement: BM defines a logical structure of how an organization creates value, capture value and delivers value for the customers and stakeholders. The lack of understanding about connections and elements among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education opens a gap in the academic literature. Thus, it is interesting to analyze how BM has been approached by the literature and applied in higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education aimed to know the main streams of research. This is because higher education institutions are characterized by innovation, leading to a greater acceptance of new and modern concepts such as BM. Our research has the main motivation to fill the gap in the academic literature, making it possible to increase the power of understanding about connections and aspects among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education. The objective of the research is to analyze the main aspects among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education in academic literature. The research followed the systematic literature review (SLR). The SLR is based on three main factors: clarity, validity, and auditability. 82 academic papers were found in the past 10 years, from 2009-2019. The search was carried out in Science Direct and Periodicos Capes databases. The main findings indicate that there are links between BM and higher education, BM and university, BM, and entrepreneurship education. The main findings are inserted within seven aspects. The findings are innovative and contribute to increase the power of understanding about the connection among BM and higher education, university, and entrepreneurship education in academic literature. The research findings addressed to the gap exposed in academic literature. The research findings have several practical implications, and we highlight only two main ones. First, researchers will be able to use the research findings to mitigate a BM research agenda involving connections between BM and higher education, BM and university, and BM and entrepreneurship education. Second, directors, deans, and university leaders will be able to carry out BM awareness programs, BM professors training programs, and makers planning for the inclusion of BM, as one of the components of the curricula of the undergraduate and graduate courses.

Measuring the Influence of Functional Proximity on Environmental Urban Performance via Integrated Modification Methodology: Four Study Cases in Milan

Although how cities’ forms are structured is studied, more efforts are needed on systemic comprehensions and evaluations of the urban morphology through quantitative metrics that are able to describe the performance of a city in relation to its formal properties. More research is required in this direction in order to better describe the urban form characteristics and their impact on the environmental performance of cities and to increase their sustainability stewardship. With the aim of developing a better understanding of the built environment’s systemic structure, the intention of this paper is to present a holistic methodology for studying the behavior of the built environment and investigate the methods for measuring the effect of urban structure to the environmental performance. This goal will be pursued through an inquiry into the morphological components of the urban systems and the complex relationships between them. Particularly, this paper focuses on proximity, referring to the proximity of different land-uses, is a concept with which Integrated Modification Methodology (IMM) explains how land-use allocation might affect the choice of mobility in neighborhoods, and especially, encourage or discourage non-motived mobility. This paper uses proximity to demonstrate that the structure attributes can quantifiably relate to the performing behavior in the city. The target is to devise a mathematical pattern from the structural elements and correlate it directly with urban performance indicators concerned with environmental sustainability. The paper presents some results of this rigorous investigation of urban proximity and its correlation with performance indicators in four different areas in the city of Milan, each of them characterized by different morphological features.

Utility of Range of Motion Measurements on Classification of Athletes

In this study, a comparison of Range Of Motion (ROM) of middle and long-distance runners and swimmers has been made. The mobility of the various joints is essential for the quick movement of any sportsman. Knowledge of a ROM helps in preventing injuries, in repeating the movement, and in generating speed and power. ROM varies among individuals, and it is influenced by factors such as gender, age, and whether the motion is performed actively or passively. ROM for running and swimming, both performed with due consideration on speed, plays an important role. The time of generation of speed and mobility of the particular joints are very important for both kinds of athletes. The difficulties that happen during running and swimming in the direction of motion is changed. In this study, data were collected for a total of 102 subjects divided into three groups: control group (22), middle and long-distance runners (40), and swimmers (40), and their ages are between 12 to 18 years. The swimmers have higher ROM in shoulder joint flexion, extension, abduction, and adduction movement. Middle and long-distance runners have significantly greater ROM from Control Group in the left shoulder joint flexion with a 5.82 mean difference. Swimmers have significantly higher ROM from the Control Group in the left shoulder joint flexion with 24.84 mean difference and swimmers have significantly higher ROM from the Middle and Long distance runners in left shoulder flexion with 19.02 mean difference. The picture will be clear after a more detailed investigation.

Privacy Protection Principles of Omnichannel Approach

The advent of the Internet, mobile devices and social media is revolutionizing the experience of retail customers by linking multiple sources through various channels. Omnichannel retailing is a retailing that combines multiple channels to allow customers to seamlessly leverage all the distribution information online and offline while shopping. Therefore, today data are an asset more critical than ever for all organizations. Nonetheless, because of its heterogeneity through platforms, developers are currently facing difficulties in dealing with personal data. Considering the possibilities of omnichannel communication, this paper presents channel categorization that could enhance the customer experience of omnichannel center called hyper center. The purpose of this paper is fundamentally to describe the connection between the omnichannel hyper center and the customer, with particular attention to privacy protection. The first phase was finding the most appropriate channels of communication for hyper center. Consequently, a selection of widely used communication channels has been identified and analyzed with regard to the effect requirements for optimizing user experience. The evaluation criteria are divided into 3 groups: general, user profile and channel options. For each criterion the weight of importance for omnichannel communication was defined. The most important thing was to consider how the hyper center can make user identification while respecting the privacy protection requirements. The study carried out also shows what customer experience across digital networks would look like, based on an omnichannel approach owing to privacy protection principles.

Reduction of Energy Consumption Using Smart Home Techniques in the Household Sector

Outcomes of exhaustion of natural resources started influencing each spirit on this planet. Energy is an essential factor in this aspect. To restore the circumstance to the appropriate track, all attempts must focus on two fundamental branches: producing electricity from clean and renewable reserves and decreasing the overall unnecessary consumption of energy. The focal point of this paper will be on lessening the power consumption in the household's segment. This paper is an attempt to give a clear understanding of a framework called Reduction of Energy Consumption in Household Sector (RECHS) and how it should help householders to reduce their power consumption by substituting their household appliances, turning-off the appliances when stand-by modus is detected, and scheduling their appliances operation periods. Technically, the framework depends on utilizing Z-Wave compatible plug-ins which will be connected to the usual house devices to gauge and control them remotely and semi-automatically. The suggested framework underpins numerous quality characteristics, for example, integrability, scalability, security and adaptability.

Greenhouse Gasses’ Effect on Atmospheric Temperature Increase and the Observable Effects on Ecosystems

Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m2 on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m2. In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 oC to 4.8 oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m2 causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.