Minimizing Risk Costs through Optimal Responses in NPD Projects

In rapidly changing market environment, firms are investing a lot of time and resources into new product development (NPD) projects to make profit and to obtain competitive advantage. However, failure rate of NPD projects is becoming high due to various internal and external risks which hinder successful NPD projects. To reduce the failure rate, it is critical that risks have to be managed effectively and efficiently through good strategy, and treated by optimal responses to minimize risk cost. Four strategies are adopted to handle the risks in this study. The optimal responses are characterized by high reduction of risk costs with high efficiency. This study suggests a framework to decide the optimal responses considering the core risks, risk costs, response efficiency and response costs for successful NPD projects. Both binary particles warm optimization (BPSO) and multi-objective particle swarm optimization (MOPSO) methods are mainly used in the framework. Although several limitations exist in use for real industries, the frame work shows good strength for handling the risks with highly scientific ways through an example.

Temperature Effect on the Solid-State Synthesis of Dehydrated Zinc Borates

Turkey has 72 % of total world boron reserves on the basis of B2O3.Borates that is a refined form of boron minerals have a wide range of applications. Zinc borates can be used as multifunctional synergistic additives. The most important properties are low solubility in water and high dehydration temperature. Zinc borates dehydrate above 290°C and anhydrous zinc borate has thermal resistance about 400°C. Zinc borates can be synthesized using several methods such as hydrothermal and solid-state processes. In this study, the solid-state method was applied between 500 and 800°C using the starting materials of ZnO and H3BO3 with 1:4 mole ratio. The reaction time was determined as 4 hours after some preliminary experiments. After the synthesis, the crystal structure and the morphology of the products were examined by XRay Diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FT-IR) and Raman Spectrometer. As a result the form of ZnB4O7 was synthesized with the highest crystal score at 800°C.

Determination of Chemical Oxygen Demand in Spent Caustic by Potentiometric Determination

Measurement of the COD of a spent caustic solution involves firstly digestion of a test sample with dichromate solution and secondly measurement of dichromate remained by titration by ferrous ammonium sulfate [FAS] to an end point. In this paper we study by a potentiometric end point with Ag/AgCl reference electrode and gold rode electrode. The potentiometric end point is sharp and easily identified especially for the samples with high turbidity and color that other methods such as colorimetric in this type of sample do not result in high precision. Because interim of titration responds quickly to potential changes within the [Cr+6/Cr+3& Fe+2/Fe+3] solution producing stable readings that is lead to accurate COD measurement. Finally results are compared with data determined using colorimetric method for standard samples. It is shown that the potentiometric end point titration with gold rode electrode can be used with equal or better facility

Impovement of a Label Extraction Method for a Risk Search System

This paper proposes an improvement method of classification efficiency in a classification model. The model is used in a risk search system and extracts specific labels from articles posted at bulletin board sites. The system can analyze the important discussions composed of the articles. The improvement method introduces ensemble learning methods that use multiple classification models. Also, it introduces expressions related to the specific labels into generation of word vectors. The paper applies the improvement method to articles collected from three bulletin board sites selected by users and verifies the effectiveness of the improvement method.

Applying Genetic Algorithms for Inventory Lot-Sizing Problem with Supplier Selection under Storage Space

The objective of this research is to calculate the optimal inventory lot-sizing for each supplier and minimize the total inventory cost which includes joint purchase cost of the products, transaction cost for the suppliers, and holding cost for remaining inventory. Genetic algorithms (GAs) are applied to the multi-product and multi-period inventory lot-sizing problems with supplier selection under storage space. Also a maximum storage space for the decision maker in each period is considered. The decision maker needs to determine what products to order in what quantities with which suppliers in which periods. It is assumed that demand of multiple products is known over a planning horizon. The problem is formulated as a mixed integer programming and is solved with the GAs. The detailed computation results are presented.

Improved Hill Climbing and Simulated Annealing Algorithms for Size Optimization of Trusses

Truss optimization problem has been vastly studied during the past 30 years and many different methods have been proposed for this problem. Even though most of these methods assume that the design variables are continuously valued, in reality, the design variables of optimization problems such as cross-sectional areas are discretely valued. In this paper, an improved hill climbing and an improved simulated annealing algorithm have been proposed to solve the truss optimization problem with discrete values for crosssectional areas. Obtained results have been compared to other methods in the literature and the comparison represents that the proposed methods can be used more efficiently than other proposed methods

A Study of Panel Logit Model and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System in the Prediction of Financial Distress Periods

The purpose of this paper is to present two different approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical services.

Using Automated Database Reverse Engineering for Database Integration

One important problem in today organizations is the existence of non-integrated information systems, inconsistency and lack of suitable correlations between legacy and modern systems. One main solution is to transfer the local databases into a global one. In this regards we need to extract the data structures from the legacy systems and integrate them with the new technology systems. In legacy systems, huge amounts of a data are stored in legacy databases. They require particular attention since they need more efforts to be normalized, reformatted and moved to the modern database environments. Designing the new integrated (global) database architecture and applying the reverse engineering requires data normalization. This paper proposes the use of database reverse engineering in order to integrate legacy and modern databases in organizations. The suggested approach consists of methods and techniques for generating data transformation rules needed for the data structure normalization.

Neural Network Based Approach for Face Detection cum Face Recognition

Automatic face detection is a complex problem in image processing. Many methods exist to solve this problem such as template matching, Fisher Linear Discriminate, Neural Networks, SVM, and MRC. Success has been achieved with each method to varying degrees and complexities. In proposed algorithm we used upright, frontal faces for single gray scale images with decent resolution and under good lighting condition. In the field of face recognition technique the single face is matched with single face from the training dataset. The author proposed a neural network based face detection algorithm from the photographs as well as if any test data appears it check from the online scanned training dataset. Experimental result shows that the algorithm detected up to 95% accuracy for any image.

Promoting Mental and Spiritual Health among Postpartum Mothers to Extend Breastfeeding Period

The purpose of this study was to study postpartum breastfeeding mothers to determine the impact their psychosocial and spiritual dimensions play in promoting full-term (6 month duration) breastfeeding of their infants. Purposive and snowball sampling methods were used to identify and recruit the study's participants. A total of 23 postpartum mothers, who were breastfeeding within 6 weeks after giving birth, participated in this study. In-depth interviews combined with observations, participant focus groups, and ethnographic records were used for data collection. The Data were then analyzed using content analysis and typology. The results of this study illustrated that postpartum mothers experienced fear and worry that they would lack support from their spouse, family and peers, and that their infant would not get enough milk It was found that the main barrier mothers faced in breastfeeding to full-term was the difficulty of continuing to breastfeed when returning to work. 81.82% of the primiparous mothers and 91.67% of the non-primiparous mothers were able to breastfeed for the desired full-term of 6 months. Factors found to be related to breastfeeding for six months included 1) belief and faith in breastfeeding, 2) support from spouse and family members, 3) counseling from public health nurses and friends. The sample also provided evidence that religious principles such as tolerance, effort, love, and compassion to their infant, and positive thinking, were used in solving their physical, mental and spiritual problems.

Matching Current Search with Future Postings

Online trading is an alternative to conventional shopping method. People trade goods which are new or pre-owned before. However, there are times when a user is not able to search the items wanted online. This is because the items may not be posted as yet, thus ending the search. Conventional search mechanism only works by searching and matching search criteria (requirement) with data available in a particular database. This research aims to match current search requirements with future postings. This would involve the time factor in the conventional search method. A Car Matching Alert System (CMAS) prototype was developed to test the matching algorithm. When a buyer-s search returns no result, the system saves the search and the buyer will be alerted if there is a match found based on future postings. The algorithm developed is useful and as it can be applied in other search context.

Image Segmentation Based on Graph Theoretical Approach to Improve the Quality of Image Segmentation

Graph based image segmentation techniques are considered to be one of the most efficient segmentation techniques which are mainly used as time & space efficient methods for real time applications. How ever, there is need to focus on improving the quality of segmented images obtained from the earlier graph based methods. This paper proposes an improvement to the graph based image segmentation methods already described in the literature. We contribute to the existing method by proposing the use of a weighted Euclidean distance to calculate the edge weight which is the key element in building the graph. We also propose a slight modification of the segmentation method already described in the literature, which results in selection of more prominent edges in the graph. The experimental results show the improvement in the segmentation quality as compared to the methods that already exist, with a slight compromise in efficiency.

A Remote Sensing Approach for Vulnerability and Environmental Change in Apodi Valley Region, Northeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to improve our understanding of vulnerability and environmental change; it's causes basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment effect on the ecosystem in the Apodi Valley Region, This paper is identify, assess and classify vulnerability and environmental change in the Apodi valley region using a combined approach of landscape pattern and ecosystem sensitivity. Models were developed using the following five thematic layers: Geology, geomorphology, soil, vegetation and land use/cover, by means of a Geographical Information Systems (GIS)-based on hydro-geophysical parameters. In spite of the data problems and shortcomings, using ESRI-s ArcGIS 9.3 program, the vulnerability score, to classify, weight and combine a number of 15 separate land cover classes to create a single indicator provides a reliable measure of differences (6 classes) among regions and communities that are exposed to similar ranges of hazards. Indeed, the ongoing and active development of vulnerability concepts and methods have already produced some tools to help overcome common issues, such as acting in a context of high uncertainties, taking into account the dynamics and spatial scale of asocial-ecological system, or gathering viewpoints from different sciences to combine human and impact-based approaches. Based on this assessment, this paper proposes concrete perspectives and possibilities to benefit from existing commonalities in the construction and application of assessment tools.

Securing Message in Wireless Sensor Network by using New Method of Code Conversions

Recently, wireless sensor networks have been paid more interest, are widely used in a lot of commercial and military applications, and may be deployed in critical scenarios (e.g. when a malfunctioning network results in danger to human life or great financial loss). Such networks must be protected against human intrusion by using the secret keys to encrypt the exchange messages between communicating nodes. Both the symmetric and asymmetric methods have their own drawbacks for use in key management. Thus, we avoid the weakness of these two cryptosystems and make use of their advantages to establish a secure environment by developing the new method for encryption depending on the idea of code conversion. The code conversion-s equations are used as the key for designing the proposed system based on the basics of logic gate-s principals. Using our security architecture, we show how to reduce significant attacks on wireless sensor networks.

Influence of Temperature Variations on Calibrated Cameras

The camera parameters are changed due to temperature variations, which directly influence calibrated cameras accuracy. Robustness of calibration methods were measured and their accuracy was tested. An error ratio due to camera parameters change with respect to total error originated during calibration process was determined. It pointed out that influence of temperature variations decrease by increasing distance of observed objects from cameras.

Categorical Missing Data Imputation Using Fuzzy Neural Networks with Numerical and Categorical Inputs

There are many situations where input feature vectors are incomplete and methods to tackle the problem have been studied for a long time. A commonly used procedure is to replace each missing value with an imputation. This paper presents a method to perform categorical missing data imputation from numerical and categorical variables. The imputations are based on Simpson-s fuzzy min-max neural networks where the input variables for learning and classification are just numerical. The proposed method extends the input to categorical variables by introducing new fuzzy sets, a new operation and a new architecture. The procedure is tested and compared with others using opinion poll data.

Food Quality Labels and their Perception by Consumers in the Czech Republic

The paper deals with quality labels used in the food products market, especially with labels of quality, labels of origin, and labels of organic farming. The aim of the paper is to identify perception of these labels by consumers in the Czech Republic. The first part refers to the definition and specification of food quality labels that are relevant in the Czech Republic. The second part includes the discussion of marketing research results. Data were collected with personal questioning method. Empirical findings on 150 respondents are related to consumer awareness and perception of national and European food quality labels used in the Czech Republic, attitudes to purchases of labelled products, and interest in information regarding the labels. Statistical methods, in the concrete Pearson´s chi-square test of independence, coefficient of contingency, and coefficient of association are used to determinate if significant differences do exist among selected demographic categories of Czech consumers.

Slug Tracking Simulation of Severe Slugging Experiments

Experimental data from an atmospheric air/water terrain slugging case has been made available by the Shell Amsterdam research center, and has been subject to numerical simulation and comparison with a one-dimensional two-phase slug tracking simulator under development at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. The code is based on tracking of liquid slugs in pipelines by use of a Lagrangian grid formulation implemented in Cµ by use of object oriented techniques. An existing hybrid spatial discretization scheme is tested, in which the stratified regions are modelled by the two-fluid model. The slug regions are treated incompressible, thus requiring a single momentum balance over the whole slug. Upon comparison with the experimental data, the period of the simulated severe slugging cycle is observed to be sensitive to slug generation in the horizontal parts of the system. Two different slug initiation methods have been tested with the slug tracking code, and grid dependency has been investigated.

Implementing an Intuitive Reasoner with a Large Weather Database

In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables" whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex" situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty. The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the complete database and create predictive models for the same 12 target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10% of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.

Application of Pattern Search Method to Power System Security Constrained Economic Dispatch

Direct search methods are evolutionary algorithms used to solve optimization problems. (DS) methods do not require any information about the gradient of the objective function at hand while searching for an optimum solution. One of such methods is Pattern Search (PS) algorithm. This paper presents a new approach based on a constrained pattern search algorithm to solve a security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED). Operation of power systems demands a high degree of security to keep the system satisfactorily operating when subjected to disturbances, while and at the same time it is required to pay attention to the economic aspects. Pattern recognition technique is used first to assess dynamic security. Linear classifiers that determine the stability of electric power system are presented and added to other system stability and operational constraints. The problem is formulated as a constrained optimization problem in a way that insures a secure-economic system operation. Pattern search method is then applied to solve the constrained optimization formulation. In particular, the method is tested using one system. Simulation results of the proposed approach are compared with those reported in literature. The outcome is very encouraging and proves that pattern search (PS) is very applicable for solving security constrained power system economic dispatch problem (SCED).