Quantifying Uncertainties in an Archetype-Based Building Stock Energy Model by Use of Individual Building Models

Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Spectral Mixture Model Applied to Cannabis Parcel Determination

Many research projects require accurate delineation of the different land cover type of the agricultural area. Especially it is critically important for the definition of specific plants like cannabis. However, the complexity of vegetation stands structure, abundant vegetation species, and the smooth transition between different seconder section stages make vegetation classification difficult when using traditional approaches such as the maximum likelihood classifier. Most of the time, classification distinguishes only between trees/annual or grain. It has been difficult to accurately determine the cannabis mixed with other plants. In this paper, a mixed distribution models approach is applied to classify pure and mix cannabis parcels using Worldview-2 imagery in the Lakes region of Turkey. Five different land use types (i.e. sunflower, maize, bare soil, and cannabis) were identified in the image. A constrained Gaussian mixture discriminant analysis (GMDA) was used to unmix the image. In the study, 255 reflectance ratios derived from spectral signatures of seven bands (Blue-Green-Yellow-Red-Rededge-NIR1-NIR2) were randomly arranged as 80% for training and 20% for test data. Gaussian mixed distribution model approach is proved to be an effective and convenient way to combine very high spatial resolution imagery for distinguishing cannabis vegetation. Based on the overall accuracies of the classification, the Gaussian mixed distribution model was found to be very successful to achieve image classification tasks. This approach is sensitive to capture the illegal cannabis planting areas in the large plain. This approach can also be used for monitoring and determination with spectral reflections in illegal cannabis planting areas.

Comparing Field Displacement History with Numerical Results to Estimate Geotechnical Parameters: Case Study of Arash-Esfandiar-Niayesh under Passing Tunnel, 2.5 Traffic Lane Tunnel, Tehran, Iran

Underground structures are of those structures that have uncertainty in design procedures. That is due to the complexity of soil condition around. Under passing tunnels are also such affected structures. Despite geotechnical site investigations, lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties due to unknown events. As results, it possibly causes conflicting settlements in numerical analysis with recorded values in the project. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific under passing tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method in Iran. The intended tunnel has an overburden of about 11.3m, the height of 12.2m and, the width of 14.4m with 2.5 traffic lane. The numerical modeling was developed by a 2D finite element program (PLAXIS Version 8). Comparing displacement histories at the ground surface during the entire installation of initial lining, the estimated surface settlement was about four times the field recorded one, which indicates that some local unknown events affect that value. Also, the displacement ratios were in a big difference between the numerical and field data. Consequently, running several numerical back analyses using laboratory and field tests data, the geotechnical parameters were accurately revised to match with the obtained monitoring data. Finally, it was found that usually the values of soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated up to 40 percent by typical engineering judgment. Additionally, it could be attributed to inappropriate constitutive models applied for the specific soil condition.

FRP Bars Spacing Effect on Numerical Thermal Deformations in Concrete Beams under High Temperatures

5 In order to eradicate the degradation of reinforced concrete structures due to the steel corrosion, professionals in constructions suggest using fiber reinforced polymers (FRP) for their excellent properties. Nevertheless, high temperatures may affect the bond between FRP bar and concrete, and consequently the serviceability of FRP-reinforced concrete structures. This paper presents a nonlinear numerical investigation using ADINA software to investigate the effect of the spacing between glass FRP (GFRP) bars embedded in concrete on circumferential thermal deformations and the distribution of radial thermal cracks in reinforced concrete beams submitted to high temperature variations up to 60 °C for asymmetrical problems. The thermal deformations predicted from nonlinear finite elements model, at the FRP bar/concrete interface and at the external surface of concrete cover, were established as a function of the ratio of concrete cover thickness to FRP bar diameter (c/db) and the ratio of spacing between FRP bars in concrete to FRP bar diameter (e/db). Numerical results show that the circumferential thermal deformations at the external surface of concrete cover are linear until cracking thermal load varied from 32 to 55 °C corresponding to the ratio of e/db varied from 1.3 to 2.3, respectively. However, for ratios e/db >2.3 and c/db >1.6, the thermal deformations at the external surface of concrete cover exhibit linear behavior without any cracks observed on the specified surface. The numerical results are compared to those obtained from analytical models validated by experimental tests.

Hand Gestures Based Emotion Identification Using Flex Sensors

In this study, we have proposed a gesture to emotion recognition method using flex sensors mounted on metacarpophalangeal joints. The flex sensors are fixed in a wearable glove. The data from the glove are sent to PC using Wi-Fi. Four gestures: finger pointing, thumbs up, fist open and fist close are performed by five subjects. Each gesture is categorized into sad, happy, and excited class based on the velocity and acceleration of the hand gesture. Seventeen inspectors observed the emotions and hand gestures of the five subjects. The emotional state based on the investigators assessment and acquired movement speed data is compared. Overall, we achieved 77% accurate results. Therefore, the proposed design can be used for emotional state detection applications.

Pilot Induced Oscillations Adaptive Suppression in Fly-By-Wire Systems

The present work proposes the development of an adaptive control system which enables the suppression of Pilot Induced Oscillations (PIO) in Digital Fly-By-Wire (DFBW) aircrafts. The proposed system consists of a Modified Model Reference Adaptive Control (M-MRAC) integrated with the Gain Scheduling technique. The PIO oscillations are detected using a Real Time Oscillation Verifier (ROVER) algorithm, which then enables the system to switch between two reference models; one in PIO condition, with low proneness to the phenomenon and another one in normal condition, with high (or medium) proneness. The reference models are defined in a closed loop condition using the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) control methodology for Multiple-Input-Multiple-Output (MIMO) systems. The implemented algorithms are simulated in software implementations with state space models and commercial flight simulators as the controlled elements and with pilot dynamics models. A sequence of pitch angles is considered as the reference signal, named as Synthetic Task (Syntask), which must be tracked by the pilot models. The initial outcomes show that the proposed system can detect and suppress (or mitigate) the PIO oscillations in real time before it reaches high amplitudes.

PM10 Prediction and Forecasting Using CART: A Case Study for Pleven, Bulgaria

Ambient air pollution with fine particulate matter (PM10) is a systematic permanent problem in many countries around the world. The accumulation of a large number of measurements of both the PM10 concentrations and the accompanying atmospheric factors allow for their statistical modeling to detect dependencies and forecast future pollution. This study applies the classification and regression trees (CART) method for building and analyzing PM10 models. In the empirical study, average daily air data for the city of Pleven, Bulgaria for a period of 5 years are used. Predictors in the models are seven meteorological variables, time variables, as well as lagged PM10 variables and some lagged meteorological variables, delayed by 1 or 2 days with respect to the initial time series, respectively. The degree of influence of the predictors in the models is determined. The selected best CART models are used to forecast future PM10 concentrations for two days ahead after the last date in the modeling procedure and show very accurate results.

Metamodel for Artefacts in Service Engineering Analysis and Design

As a process of developing a service system, the term ‘service engineering’ evolves in scope and definition. To achieve an integrated understanding of the process, a general framework and an ontology are required. This paper extends a previously built service engineering framework by exploring metamodels for the framework artefacts based on a foundational ontology and a metamodel landscape. The first part of this paper presents a correlation map between the proposed framework with the ontology as a form of evaluation for the conceptual coverage of the framework. The mapping also serves to characterize the artefacts to be produced for each activity in the framework. The second part describes potential metamodels to be used, from the metamodel landscape, as alternative formats of the framework artefacts. The results suggest that the framework sufficiently covers the ontological concepts, both from general service context and software service context. The metamodel exploration enriches the suggested artefact format from the original eighteen formats to thirty metamodel alternatives.

Influence of a High-Resolution Land Cover Classification on Air Quality Modelling

Poor air quality is one of the main environmental causes of premature deaths worldwide, and mainly in cities, where the majority of the population lives. It is a consequence of successive land cover (LC) and use changes, as a result of the intensification of human activities. Knowing these landscape modifications in a comprehensive spatiotemporal dimension is, therefore, essential for understanding variations in air pollutant concentrations. In this sense, the use of air quality models is very useful to simulate the physical and chemical processes that affect the dispersion and reaction of chemical species into the atmosphere. However, the modelling performance should always be evaluated since the resolution of the input datasets largely dictates the reliability of the air quality outcomes. Among these data, the updated LC is an important parameter to be considered in atmospheric models, since it takes into account the Earth’s surface changes due to natural and anthropic actions, and regulates the exchanges of fluxes (emissions, heat, moisture, etc.) between the soil and the air. This work aims to evaluate the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), when different LC classifications are used as an input. The influence of two LC classifications was tested: i) the 24-classes USGS (United States Geological Survey) LC database included by default in the model, and the ii) CLC (Corine Land Cover) and specific high-resolution LC data for Portugal, reclassified according to the new USGS nomenclature (33-classes). Two distinct WRF-Chem simulations were carried out to assess the influence of the LC on air quality over Europe and Portugal, as a case study, for the year 2015, using the nesting technique over three simulation domains (25 km2, 5 km2 and 1 km2 horizontal resolution). Based on the 33-classes LC approach, particular emphasis was attributed to Portugal, given the detail and higher LC spatial resolution (100 m x 100 m) than the CLC data (5000 m x 5000 m). As regards to the air quality, only the LC impacts on tropospheric ozone concentrations were evaluated, because ozone pollution episodes typically occur in Portugal, in particular during the spring/summer, and there are few research works relating to this pollutant with LC changes. The WRF-Chem results were validated by season and station typology using background measurements from the Portuguese air quality monitoring network. As expected, a better model performance was achieved in rural stations: moderate correlation (0.4 – 0.7), BIAS (10 – 21µg.m-3) and RMSE (20 – 30 µg.m-3), and where higher average ozone concentrations were estimated. Comparing both simulations, small differences grounded on the Leaf Area Index and air temperature values were found, although the high-resolution LC approach shows a slight enhancement in the model evaluation. This highlights the role of the LC on the exchange of atmospheric fluxes, and stresses the need to consider a high-resolution LC characterization combined with other detailed model inputs, such as the emission inventory, to improve air quality assessment.

Quantum Markov Modeling for Healthcare

A Markov model defines a system of states, composed by the feasible transition paths between those states, and the parameters of those transitions. The paths and parameters may be a representative way to address healthcare issues, such as to identify the most likely sequence of patient health states given the sequence of observations. Furthermore estimating the length of stay (LoS) of patients in hospitalization is one of the challenges that Markov models allow us to solve. However, finding the maximum probability of any path that gets to state at time t, can have high computational cost. A quantum approach allows us to take advantage of quantum computation since the calculated probabilities can be in several states, ending up to outperform classical computing due to the possible superposition of states when handling large amounts of data. The aid of quantum physics-based architectures and machine learning techniques are therefore appropriated to address the complexity of healthcare.

Development and Validation of an Instrument Measuring the Coping Strategies in Situations of Stress

Stress causes deleterious effects to the physical, psychological and organizational levels, which highlight the need to use effective coping strategies to deal with it. Several coping models exist, but they don’t integrate the different strategies in a coherent way nor do they take into account the new research on the emotional coping and acceptance of the stressful situation. To fill these gaps, an integrative model incorporating the main coping strategies was developed. This model arises from the review of the scientific literature on coping and from a qualitative study carried out among workers with low or high levels of stress, as well as from an analysis of clinical cases. The model allows one to understand under what circumstances the strategies are effective or ineffective and to learn how one might use them more wisely. It includes Specific Strategies in controllable situations (the Modification of the Situation and the Resignation-Disempowerment), Specific Strategies in non-controllable situations (Acceptance and Stubborn Relentlessness) as well as so-called General Strategies (Wellbeing and Avoidance). This study is intended to undertake and present the process of development and validation of an instrument to measure coping strategies based on this model. An initial pool of items has been generated from the conceptual definitions and three expert judges have validated the content. Of these, 18 items have been selected for a short form questionnaire. A sample of 300 students and employees from a Quebec university was used for the validation of the questionnaire. Concerning the reliability of the instrument, the indices observed following the inter-rater agreement (Krippendorff’s alpha) and the calculation of the coefficients for internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha) are satisfactory. To evaluate the construct validity, a confirmatory factor analysis using MPlus supports the existence of a model with six factors. The results of this analysis suggest also that this configuration is superior to other alternative models. The correlations show that the factors are only loosely related to each other. Overall, the analyses carried out suggest that the instrument has good psychometric qualities and demonstrates the relevance of further work to establish predictive validity and reconfirm its structure. This instrument will help researchers and clinicians better understand and assess coping strategies to cope with stress and thus prevent mental health issues.

Modeling the Saltatory Conduction in Myelinated Axons by Order Reduction

The saltatory conduction is the way the action potential is transmitted along a myelinated axon. The potential diffuses along the myelinated compartments and it is regenerated in the Ranvier nodes due to the ion channels allowing the flow across the membrane. For an efficient simulation of populations of neurons, it is important to use reduced order models both for myelinated compartments and for Ranvier nodes and to have control over their accuracy and inner parameters. The paper presents a reduced order model of this neural system which allows an efficient simulation method for the saltatory conduction in myelinated axons. This model is obtained by concatenating reduced order linear models of 1D myelinated compartments and nonlinear 0D models of Ranvier nodes. The models for the myelinated compartments are selected from a series of spatially distributed models developed and hierarchized according to their modeling errors. The extracted model described by a nonlinear PDE of hyperbolic type is able to reproduce the saltatory conduction with acceptable accuracy and takes into account the finite propagation speed of potential. Finally, this model is again reduced in order to make it suitable for the inclusion in large-scale neural circuits.

Combustion Analysis of Suspended Sodium Droplet

Combustion analysis of suspended sodium droplet is performed by solving numerically the Navier-Stokes equations and the energy conservation equations. The combustion model consists of the pre-ignition and post-ignition models. The reaction rate for the pre-ignition model is based on the chemical kinetics, while that for the post-ignition model is based on the mass transfer rate of oxygen. The calculated droplet temperature is shown to be in good agreement with the existing experimental data. The temperature field in and around the droplet is obtained as well as the droplet shape variation, and the present numerical model is confirmed to be effective for the combustion analysis.

Accounting for Rice Productivity Heterogeneity in Ghana: The Two-Step Stochastic Metafrontier Approach

Rice yields among agro-ecological zones are heterogeneous. Farmers, researchers and policy makers are making frantic efforts to bridge rice yield gaps between agro-ecological zones through the promotion of improved agricultural technologies (IATs). Farmers are also modifying these IATs and blending them with indigenous farming practices (IFPs) to form farmer innovation systems (FISs). Also, different metafrontier models have been used in estimating productivity performances and their drivers. This study used the two-step stochastic metafrontier model to estimate the productivity performances of rice farmers and their determining factors in GSZ, FSTZ and CSZ. The study used both primary and secondary data. Farmers in CSZ are the most technically efficient. Technical inefficiencies of farmers are negatively influenced by age, sex, household size, education years, extension visits, contract farming, access to improved seeds, access to irrigation, high rainfall amount, less lodging of rice, and well-coordinated and synergized adoption of technologies. Albeit farmers in CSZ are doing well in terms of rice yield, they still have the highest potential of increasing rice yield since they had the lowest TGR. It is recommended that government through the ministry of food and agriculture, development partners and individual private companies promote the adoption of IATs as well as educate farmers on how to coordinate and synergize the adoption of the whole package. Contract farming concept and agricultural extension intensification should be vigorously pursued to the latter.

Analytical and Numerical Results for Free Vibration of Laminated Composites Plates

The reinforcement and repair of concrete structures by bonding composite materials have become relatively common operations. Different types of composite materials can be used: carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP), glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) as well as functionally graded material (FGM). The development of analytical and numerical models describing the mechanical behavior of structures in civil engineering reinforced by composite materials is necessary. These models will enable engineers to select, design, and size adequate reinforcements for the various types of damaged structures. This study focuses on the free vibration behavior of orthotropic laminated composite plates using a refined shear deformation theory. In these models, the distribution of transverse shear stresses is considered as parabolic satisfying the zero-shear stress condition on the top and bottom surfaces of the plates without using shear correction factors. In this analysis, the equation of motion for simply supported thick laminated rectangular plates is obtained by using the Hamilton’s principle. The accuracy of the developed model is demonstrated by comparing our results with solutions derived from other higher order models and with data found in the literature. Besides, a finite-element analysis is used to calculate the natural frequencies of laminated composite plates and is compared with those obtained by the analytical approach.

A Biometric Template Security Approach to Fingerprints Based on Polynomial Transformations

The use of biometric identifiers in the field of information security, access control to resources, authentication in ATMs and banking among others, are of great concern because of the safety of biometric data. In the general architecture of a biometric system have been detected eight vulnerabilities, six of them allow obtaining minutiae template in plain text. The main consequence of obtaining minutia templates is the loss of biometric identifier for life. To mitigate these vulnerabilities several models to protect minutiae templates have been proposed. Several vulnerabilities in the cryptographic security of these models allow to obtain biometric data in plain text. In order to increase the cryptographic security and ease of reversibility, a minutiae templates protection model is proposed. The model aims to make the cryptographic protection and facilitate the reversibility of data using two levels of security. The first level of security is the data transformation level. In this level generates invariant data to rotation and translation, further transformation is irreversible. The second level of security is the evaluation level, where the encryption key is generated and data is evaluated using a defined evaluation function. The model is aimed at mitigating known vulnerabilities of the proposed models, basing its security on the impossibility of the polynomial reconstruction.

Pareidolia and Perception of Anger in Vehicle Styles: Survey Results

Most people see human faces in car front and back ends because of the process of pareidolia. 96 people were surveyed to see how many of them saw a face in the vehicle styling. Participants were aged 18 to 72 years. 94% of the participants saw faces in the front-end design of production models. All participants that recognized faces indicated that most styles showed some degree of an angry expression. It was found that women were more likely to see faces in inanimate objects. However, with respect to whether women were more likely to perceive anger in the vehicle design, the results need further clarification. Survey responses were correlated to the design features of vehicles to determine what cues the respondents were likely looking at when responding. Whether the features looked anthropomorphic was key to anger perception. Features such as the headlights which could represent eyes and the air intake that could represent a mouth had high correlations to trends in scores. Results are compared among models, makers, by groupings of body styles classifications for the top 12 brands sold in the US, and by year for the top 20 models sold in the US in 2016. All of the top models sold increased in perception of an angry expression over the last 20 years or since the model was introduced, but the relative change varied by body style grouping.

A 15 Minute-Based Approach for Berth Allocation and Quay Crane Assignment

In traditional integrated berth allocation with quay crane assignment models, time dimension is usually assumed in hourly based. However, nowadays, transshipment becomes the main business to many container terminals, especially in Southeast Asia (e.g. Hong Kong and Singapore). In these terminals, vessel arrivals are usually very frequent with small handling volume and very short staying time. Therefore, the traditional hourly-based modeling approach may cause significant berth and quay crane idling, and consequently cannot meet their practical needs. In this connection, a 15-minute-based modeling approach is requested by industrial practitioners. Accordingly, a Three-level Genetic Algorithm (3LGA) with Quay Crane (QC) shifting heuristics is designed to fulfill the research gap. The objective function here is to minimize the total service time. Preliminary numerical results show that the proposed 15-minute-based approach can reduce the berth and QC idling significantly.

Estimation of PM2.5 Emissions and Source Apportionment Using Receptor and Dispersion Models

Source apportionment using Dispersion model depends primarily on the quality of Emission Inventory. In the present study, a CMB receptor model has been used to identify the sources of PM2.5, while the AERMOD dispersion model has been used to account for missing sources of PM2.5 in the Emission Inventory. A statistical approach has been developed to quantify the missing sources not considered in the Emission Inventory. The inventory of each grid was improved by adjusting emissions based on road lengths and deficit in measured and modelled concentrations. The results showed that in CMB analyses, fugitive sources - soil and road dust - contribute significantly to ambient PM2.5 pollution. As a result, AERMOD significantly underestimated the ambient air concentration at most locations. The revised Emission Inventory showed a significant improvement in AERMOD performance which is evident through statistical tests.

Automated Heart Sound Classification from Unsegmented Phonocardiogram Signals Using Time Frequency Features

Cardiologists perform cardiac auscultation to detect abnormalities in heart sounds. Since accurate auscultation is a crucial first step in screening patients with heart diseases, there is a need to develop computer-aided detection/diagnosis (CAD) systems to assist cardiologists in interpreting heart sounds and provide second opinions. In this paper different algorithms are implemented for automated heart sound classification using unsegmented phonocardiogram (PCG) signals. Support vector machine (SVM), artificial neural network (ANN) and cartesian genetic programming evolved artificial neural network (CGPANN) without the application of any segmentation algorithm has been explored in this study. The signals are first pre-processed to remove any unwanted frequencies. Both time and frequency domain features are then extracted for training the different models. The different algorithms are tested in multiple scenarios and their strengths and weaknesses are discussed. Results indicate that SVM outperforms the rest with an accuracy of 73.64%.