Abstract: Study of the effects of climate change on Norway
Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of
tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of
species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some
effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity
changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed
via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation
basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data
for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research
plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia.
The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the
territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are
according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI
(regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change
scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the
present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce
representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious
broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most
significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the
upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo)
occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most
important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and
phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special
discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to
carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.
Abstract: Today, insurers may use the yield curve as an indicator
evaluation of the profit or the performance of their portfolios;
therefore, they modeled it by one class of model that has the ability
to fit and forecast the future term structure of interest rates. This class
of model is the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. Unfortunately, many
authors have reported a lot of difficulties when they want to calibrate
the model because the optimization problem is not convex and has
multiple local optima. In this context, we implement a hybrid Particle
Swarm optimization and Nelder Mead algorithm in order to minimize
by least squares method, the difference between the zero-coupon
curve and the NSS curve.
Abstract: In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that
resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake
fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and
caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce
the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is
a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The
parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors
influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition,
including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance,
and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing
to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake
characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak
ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are
solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they
cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake
records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model
parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition
ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in
an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition
events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such
correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.
Abstract: During an earthquake, a bridge crane may be
subjected to multiple impacts between crane wheels and rail. In order
to model such phenomena, a time-history dynamic analysis with a
multi-scale approach is performed. The high frequency aspect of the
impacts between wheels and rails is taken into account by a Lagrange
explicit event-capturing algorithm based on a velocity-impulse
formulation to resolve contacts and impacts. An implicit temporal
scheme is used for the rest of the structure. The numerical coupling
between the implicit and the explicit schemes is achieved with a
heterogeneous asynchronous time-integrator.
Abstract: The technological paradigm of the disaster
management field, especially in the case of governmental
intervention strategies, is generally based on rapid and flexible
accommodation solutions. From various technical solution patterns
used to address the immediate housing needs of disaster victims, the
adaptive re-use of existing buildings can be considered to be both
low-cost and practical. However, there is a scarcity of analytical
methods to screen, select and adapt buildings to help decision makers
in cases of emergency. Following an extensive literature review, this
paper aims to highlight key points and problem areas associated with
the adaptive re-use of buildings within the disaster management
context. In other disciplines such as real estate management, the
adaptive re-use potential (ARP) of existing buildings is typically
based on the prioritization of a set of technical and non-technical
criteria which are then weighted to arrive at an economically viable
investment decision. After a disaster, however, the assessment of the
ARP of buildings requires consideration of different/additional layers
of analysis which stem from general disaster management principles
and the peculiarities of different types of disasters, as well as of their
victims. In this paper, a discussion of the development of an adaptive
re-use potential (ARP) assessment model is presented. It is thought
that governmental and non-governmental decision makers who are
required to take quick decisions to accommodate displaced masses
following disasters are likely to benefit from the implementation of
such a model.
Abstract: Imazu Bay plays an important role for endangered
species such as horseshoe crabs and black-faced spoonbills that stay in
the bay for spawning or the passing of winter. However, this bay is
semi-enclosed with slow water exchange, which could lead to
eutrophication under the condition of excess nutrient inflow to the bay.
Therefore, quantification of nutrient inflow is of great importance.
Generally, analysis of nutrient inflow to the bays takes into
consideration nutrient inflow from only the river, but that from
groundwater should not be ignored for more accurate results. The main
objective of this study is to estimate the amounts of nutrient inflow
from river and groundwater to Imazu Bay by analyzing water budget
in Zuibaiji River Basin and loads of T-N, T-P, NO3-N and NH4-N. The
water budget computation in the basin is performed using groundwater
recharge model and quasi three-dimensional two-phase groundwater
flow model, and the multiplication of the measured amount of nutrient
inflow with the computed discharge gives the total amount of nutrient
inflow to the bay. In addition, in order to evaluate nutrient inflow to the
bay, the result is compared with nutrient inflow from geologically
similar river basins. The result shows that the discharge is 3.50×107
m3/year from the river and 1.04×107 m3/year from groundwater. The
submarine groundwater discharge accounts for approximately 23 % of
the total discharge, which is large compared to the other river basins. It
is also revealed that the total nutrient inflow is not particularly large.
The sum of NO3-N and NH4-N loadings from groundwater is less than
10 % of that from the river because of denitrification in groundwater.
The Shin Seibu Sewage Treatment Plant located below the observation
points discharges treated water of 15,400 m3/day and plans to increase
it. However, the loads of T-N and T-P from the treatment plant are 3.9
mg/L and 0.19 mg/L, so that it does not contribute a lot to
eutrophication.
Abstract: The aim of this work is to present a low cost adsorbent
for removing toxic heavy metals from aqueous solutions. Therefore,
we are interested to investigate the efficiency of natural clay minerals
collected from south Tunisia and their modified form using sulfuric
acid in the removal of toxic metal ions: Zn(II) and Pb(II) from
synthetic waste water solutions. The obtained results indicate that
metal uptake is pH-dependent and maximum removal was detected to
occur at pH 6. Adsorption equilibrium is very rapid and it was
achieved after 90 min for both metal ions studied. The kinetics results
show that the pseudo-second-order model describes the adsorption
and the intraparticle diffusion models are the limiting step. The
treatment of natural clay with sulfuric acid creates more active sites
and increases the surface area, so it showed an increase of the
adsorbed quantities of lead and zinc in single and binary systems. The
competitive adsorption study showed that the uptake of lead was
inhibited in the presence of 10 mg/L of zinc. An antagonistic binary
adsorption mechanism was observed. These results revealed that clay
is an effective natural material for removing lead and zinc in single
and binary systems from aqueous solution.
Abstract: The idea of cropping-system is a method used by
farmers. It is an environmentally-friendly method, protecting the
natural resources (soil, water, air, nutritive substances) and increase
the production at the same time, taking into account some crop
particularities. The combination of this powerful method with the
concepts of genetic algorithms results into a possibility of generating
sequences of crops in order to form a rotation. The usage of this type
of algorithms has been efficient in solving problems related to
optimization and their polynomial complexity allows them to be used
at solving more difficult and various problems. In our case, the
optimization consists in finding the most profitable rotation of
cultures. One of the expected results is to optimize the usage of the
resources, in order to minimize the costs and maximize the profit. In
order to achieve these goals, a genetic algorithm was designed. This
algorithm ensures the finding of several optimized solutions of
cropping-systems possibilities which have the highest profit and,
thus, which minimize the costs. The algorithm uses genetic-based
methods (mutation, crossover) and structures (genes, chromosomes).
A cropping-system possibility will be considered a chromosome and
a crop within the rotation is a gene within a chromosome. Results
about the efficiency of this method will be presented in a special
section. The implementation of this method would bring benefits into
the activity of the farmers by giving them hints and helping them to
use the resources efficiently.
Abstract: This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.
Abstract: With the increasing complexity of cyberspace security, the cyber-attack attribution has become an important challenge of the security protection systems. The difficult points of cyber-attack attribution were forced on the problems of huge data handling and key data missing. According to this situation, this paper presented a reasoning method of cyber-attack attribution based on threat intelligence. The method utilizes the intrusion kill chain model and Bayesian network to build attack chain and evidence chain of cyber-attack on threat intelligence platform through data calculation, analysis and reasoning. Then, we used a number of cyber-attack events which we have observed and analyzed to test the reasoning method and demo system, the result of testing indicates that the reasoning method can provide certain help in cyber-attack attribution.
Abstract: An approach to compute optimum seismic design parameters is presented. It is based on the optimization of the expected present value of the total cost, which includes the initial cost of structures as well as the cost due to earthquakes. Different types of seismicity models are considered, including one for characteristic earthquakes. Uncertainties are included in some variables to observe the influence on optimum values. Optimum seismic design coefficients are computed for three different structural types representing high, medium and low rise buildings, located near and far from the seismic sources. Ordinary and important structures are considered in the analysis. The results of optimum values show an important influence of seismicity models as well as of uncertainties on the variables.
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to explore the different facets of growth among micro, small and medium-sized firms in Croatia and to analyze the differences between models designed for all micro, small and medium-sized firms and those in creative industries. Three growth prediction models were designed and tested using the growth of sales, employment and assets of the company as dependent variables. The key drivers of sales growth are: prudent use of cash, industry affiliation and higher share of intangible assets. Growth of assets depends on retained profits, internal and external sources of financing, as well as industry affiliation. Growth in employment is closely related to sources of financing, in particular, debt and it occurs less frequently than growth in sales and assets. The findings confirm the assumption that growth strategies of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in creative industries have specific differences in comparison to SMEs in general. Interestingly, only 2.2% of growing enterprises achieve growth in employment, assets and sales simultaneously.
Abstract: In connected vehicle systems where wireless communication is available among the involved vehicles and intersection controllers, it is possible to design an intersection coordination strategy that leads the connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) travel through the road intersections without the conventional traffic light control. In this paper, we present a distributed coordination strategy for the CAVs at multiple interconnected intersections that aims at improving system fuel efficiency and system mobility. We present a distributed control solution where in the higher level, the intersection controllers calculate the road desired average velocity and optimally assign reference velocities of each vehicle. In the lower level, every vehicle is considered to use model predictive control (MPC) to track their reference velocity obtained from the higher level controller. The proposed method has been implemented on a simulation-based case with two-interconnected intersection network. Additionally, the effects of mixed vehicle types on the coordination strategy has been explored. Simulation results indicate the improvement on vehicle fuel efficiency and traffic mobility of the proposed method.
Abstract: Monitoring of tool wear in milling operations is essential for achieving the desired dimensional accuracy and surface finish of a machined workpiece. Although there are numerous statistical models and artificial intelligence techniques available for monitoring the wear of cutting tools, these techniques cannot pin point which cutting edge of the tool, or which insert in the case of indexable tooling, is worn or broken. Currently, the task of monitoring the wear on the tool cutting edges is carried out by the operator who performs a manual inspection, causing undesirable stoppages of machine tools and consequently resulting in costs incurred from lost productivity. The present study is concerned with the development of a flute tracking system to segment signals related to each physical flute of a cutter with three flutes used in an end milling operation. The purpose of the system is to monitor the cutting condition for individual flutes separately in order to determine their progressive wear rates and to predict imminent tool failure. The results of this study clearly show that signals associated with each flute can be effectively segmented using the proposed flute tracking system. Furthermore, the results illustrate that by segmenting the sensor signal by flutes it is possible to investigate the wear in each physical cutting edge of the cutting tool. These findings are significant in that they facilitate the online condition monitoring of a cutting tool for each specific flute without the need for operators/engineers to perform manual inspections of the tool.
Abstract: This research paper presents a framework for classifying Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) images for Dementia. Dementia, an age-related cognitive decline is indicated by degeneration of cortical and sub-cortical structures. Characterizing morphological changes helps understand disease development and contributes to early prediction and prevention of the disease. Modelling, that captures the brain’s structural variability and which is valid in disease classification and interpretation is very challenging. Features are extracted using Gabor filter with 0, 30, 60, 90 orientations and Gray Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM). It is proposed to normalize and fuse the features. Independent Component Analysis (ICA) selects features. Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifier with different kernels is evaluated, for efficiency to classify dementia. This study evaluates the presented framework using MRI images from OASIS dataset for identifying dementia. Results showed that the proposed feature fusion classifier achieves higher classification accuracy.
Abstract: This paper explains the educational timetabling problem, a type of scheduling problem that is considered as one of the most challenging problem in optimization and operational research. The university examination timetabling problem (UETP), which involves assigning a set number of exams into a set number of timeslots whilst fulfilling all required conditions, has been widely investigated. The limitation of available timeslots and resources with the increasing number of examinations are the main reasons in the difficulty of solving this problem. Dynamical change in the examination scheduling system adds up the complication particularly in coping up with the demand and new requirements by the communities. Our objective is to investigate these demands and requirements with subjects taken from Universiti Malaysia Terengganu (UMT), through questionnaires. Integer linear programming model which reflects the preferences obtained to produce an effective examination timetabling was formed.
Abstract: There is a gap at combustor-turbine interface where leakage flow comes out to prevent hot gas ingestion into the gas turbine nozzle platform. The leakage flow protects the nozzle endwall surface from the hot gas coming from combustor exit. For controlling flow’s stream, the gap’s geometry is transformed by changing fillet radius size. During the operation, step configuration is occurred that was unintended between combustor-turbine platform interface caused by thermal expansion or mismatched assembly. In this study, CFD simulations were performed to investigate the effect of the fillet and step on heat transfer and film cooling effectiveness on the nozzle platform. The Reynolds-averaged Navier-stokes equation was solved with turbulence model, SST k-omega. With the fillet configuration, predicted film cooling effectiveness results indicated that fillet radius size influences to enhance film cooling effectiveness. Predicted film cooling effectiveness results at forward facing step configuration indicated that step height influences to enhance film cooling effectiveness. We suggested that designer change a combustor-turbine interface configuration which was varied by fillet radius size near endwall gap when there was a step at combustor-turbine interface. Gap shape was modified by increasing fillet radius size near nozzle endwall. Also, fillet radius and step height were interacted with the film cooling effectiveness and heat transfer on endwall surface.
Abstract: Modeling of hydrogen fueled engine (H2ICE) injection system is a very important tool that can be used for explaining or predicting the effect of advanced injection strategies on combustion and emissions. In this paper, a common rail injection system (CRIS) is proposed for 4-strokes 4-cylinders hydrogen fueled engine with port injection feeding system (PIH2ICE). For this system, a numerical one-dimensional gas dynamic model is developed considering single injection event for each injector per a cycle. One-dimensional flow equations in conservation form are used to simulate wave propagation phenomenon throughout the CR (accumulator). Using this model, the effect of common rail on the injection system characteristics is clarified. These characteristics include: rail pressure, sound velocity, rail mass flow rate, injected mass flow rate and pressure drop across injectors. The interaction effects of operational conditions (engine speed and rail pressure) and geometrical features (injector hole diameter) are illustrated; and the required compromised solutions are highlighted. The CRIS is shown to be a promising enhancement for PIH2ICE.
Abstract: This paper contributes to the literature by updating the analysis of the impact of the recent oil prices fall on the renewable energy (RE) industry and deployment. The research analysis uses the Renewable Energy Industrial Index (RENIXX), which tracks the world’s 30 largest publicly traded companies and oil prices daily data from January 2003 to March 2016. RENIXX represents RE industries developing solar, wind, geothermal, bioenergy, hydropower and fuel cells technologies. This paper tests the hypothesis that claims high oil prices encourage the substitution of alternate energy sources for conventional energy sources. Furthermore, it discusses RENIXX performance behavior with respect to the governments’ policies factor that investors should take into account. Moreover, the paper proposes a theoretical model that relates RE industry progress with oil prices and policies through the fuzzy logic system.
Abstract: 3D model-based vehicle matching provides a new way
for vehicle recognition, localization and tracking. Its key is to
construct an evaluation function, also called fitness function, to
measure the degree of vehicle matching. The existing fitness functions
often poorly perform when the clutter and occlusion exist in traffic
scenarios. In this paper, we present a practical and efficient fitness
function. Unlike the existing evaluation functions, the proposed
fitness function is to study the vehicle matching problem from
both local and global perspectives, which exploits the pixel gradient
information as well as the silhouette information. In view of the
discrepancy between 3D vehicle model and real vehicle, a weighting
strategy is introduced to differently treat the fitting of the model’s
wireframes. Additionally, a normalization operation for the model’s
projection is performed to improve the accuracy of the matching.
Experimental results on real traffic videos reveal that the proposed
fitness function is efficient and robust to the cluttered background
and partial occlusion.