Abstract: The development of industrial activities, increase in fossil fuel consumption, vehicles, destruction of forests and grasslands, changes in land use, and population growth have caused to increase the amount of greenhouse gases especially CO2 in the atmosphere in recent decades. This has led to global warming and climate change. In the present paper, we have investigated the trend of climate change according to the data simulation during the time interval of 2010-2030 in the Fars province. In this research, the daily climatic parameters such as maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and number of sunny hours during the 1977-2008 time interval for synoptic stations of Shiraz and Abadeh and during 1995-2008 for Lar stations and also the output of HADCM3 model in 2010-2030 time interval have been used based on the A2 propagation scenario. The results of the model show that the average temperature will increase by about 1 degree centigrade and the amount of precipitation will increase by 23.9% compared to the observational data. In conclusion, according to the temperature increase in this province, the amount of precipitation in the form of snow will be reduced and precipitations often will occur in the form of rain. This 1-degree centigrade increase during the season will reduce production by 6 to 10% because of shortening the growing period of wheat.
Abstract: Small scale hydropower used to play a very important role in the provision of energy to urban and rural areas of South Africa. The national electricity grid, however, expanded and offered cheap, coal generated electricity and a large number of hydropower systems were decommissioned. Unfortunately, large numbers of households and communities will not be connected to the national electricity grid for the foreseeable future due to high cost of transmission and distribution systems to remote communities due to the relatively low electricity demand within rural communities and the allocation of current expenditure on upgrading and constructing of new coal fired power stations. This necessitates the development of feasible alternative power generation technologies. A feasibility and implementation model was developed to assist in designing and financially evaluating small-scale hydropower (SSHP) plants. Several sites were identified using the model. The SSHP plants were designed for the selected sites and the designs for the different selected sites were priced using pricing models (civil, mechanical and electrical aspects). Following feasibility studies done on the designed and priced SSHP plants, a feasibility analysis was done and a design chart developed for future similar potential SSHP plant projects. The methodology followed in conducting the feasibility analysis for other potential sites consisted of developing cost and income/saving formulae, developing net present value (NPV) formulae, Capital Cost Comparison Ratio (CCCR) and levelised cost formulae for SSHP projects for the different types of plant installations. It included setting up a model for the development of a design chart for a SSHP, calculating the NPV, CCCR and levelised cost for the different scenarios within the model by varying different parameters within the developed formulae, setting up the design chart for the different scenarios within the model and analyzing and interpreting results. From the interpretation of the develop design charts for feasible SSHP in can be seen that turbine and distribution line cost are the major influences on the cost and feasibility of SSHP. High head, short transmission line and islanded mini-grid SSHP installations are the most feasible and that the levelised cost of SSHP is high for low power generation sites. The main conclusion from the study is that the levelised cost of SSHP projects indicate that the cost of SSHP for low energy generation is high compared to the levelised cost of grid connected electricity supply; however, the remoteness of SSHP for rural electrification and the cost of infrastructure to connect remote rural communities to the local or national electricity grid provides a low CCCR and renders SSHP for rural electrification feasible on this basis.
Abstract: The main objective of the current work is to introduce sustainability factors in optimizing the supply chain model for process industries. The supply chain models are normally based on purely economic considerations related to costs and profits. To account for sustainability, two additional factors have been introduced; environment and risk. A supply chain for an entire petroleum organization has been considered for implementing and testing the proposed optimization models. The environmental and risk factors were introduced as indicators reflecting the anticipated impact of the optimal production scenarios on sustainability. The aggregation method used in extending the single objective function to multi-objective function is proven to be quite effective in balancing the contribution of each objective term. The results indicate that introducing sustainability factor would slightly reduce the economic benefit while improving the environmental and risk reduction performances of the process industries.
Abstract: Projects of accident research analysis are mostly focused on accidents involving personal damage. Property damage only has a high frequency of occurrence combined with high economic impact. This paper describes main influencing parameters for the extent of damage and presents a repair cost model. For a prospective evaluation method of the monetary effect of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), it is necessary to be aware of and quantify all influencing parameters. Furthermore, this method allows the evaluation of vehicle concepts in combination with an ADAS at an early point in time of the product development process. In combination with a property damage database and the introduced repair cost model relevant test scenarios for specific vehicle configurations and their individual property damage risk may be determined. Currently, equipment rates of ADAS are low and a purchase incentive for customers would be beneficial. The next ADAS generation will prevent property damage to a large extent or at least reduce damage severity. Both effects may be a purchasing incentive for the customer and furthermore contribute to increased traffic safety.
Abstract: The present study investigated approaches and techniques to enhance strategic management governance and decision making within the framework of a performance-based balanced scorecard. The review of best practices from strategic, program, process, and systems engineering management provided for a holistic approach toward effective outcome-based capability management. One technique, based on factorial experimental design methods, was used to develop an empirical model. This model predicted the degree of capability effectiveness and is dependent on controlled system input variables and their weightings. These variables represent business performance measures, captured within a strategic balanced scorecard. The weighting of these measures enhances the ability to quantify causal relationships within balanced scorecard strategy maps. The focus in this study was on the performance of tangible assets within the scorecard rather than the traditional approach of assessing performance of intangible assets such as knowledge and technology. Tangible assets are represented in this study as physical systems, which may be thought of as being aboard a ship or within a production facility. The measures assigned to these systems include project funding for upgrades against demand, system certifications achieved against those required, preventive maintenance to corrective maintenance ratios, and material support personnel capacity against that required for supporting respective systems. The resultant scorecard is viewed as complimentary to the traditional balanced scorecard for program and performance management. The benefits from these scorecards are realized through the quantified state of operational capabilities or outcomes. These capabilities are also weighted in terms of priority for each distinct system measure and aggregated and visualized in terms of overall state of capabilities achieved. This study proposes the use of interactive controls within the scorecard as a technique to enhance development of alternative solutions in decision making. These interactive controls include those for assigning capability priorities and for adjusting system performance measures, thus providing for what-if scenarios and options in strategic decision-making. In this holistic approach to capability management, several cross functional processes were highlighted as relevant amongst the different management disciplines. In terms of assessing an organization’s ability to adopt this approach, consideration was given to the P3M3 management maturity model.
Abstract: Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) are suitable for many scenarios in the real world. The retrieval of data is made efficient by the data aggregation techniques. Many techniques for the data aggregation are offered and most of the existing schemes are not energy efficient and secure. However, the existing techniques use the traditional clustering approach where there is a delay during the packet transmission since there is no proper scheduling. The presented system uses the Velocity Energy-efficient and Link-aware Cluster-Tree (VELCT) scheme in which there is a Data Collection Tree (DCT) which improves the lifetime of the network. The VELCT scheme and the construction of DCT reduce the delay and traffic. The network lifetime can be increased by avoiding the frequent change in cluster topology. Secure and Efficient Transmission of Aggregated data (SETA) improves the security of the data transmission via the trust value of the nodes prior the aggregation of data. Since SETA considers the data only from the trustworthy nodes for aggregation, it is more secure in transmitting the data thereby improving the accuracy of aggregated data.
Abstract: Supplier selection problem is one of the important issues of supply chain problems. Two categories of methodologies include qualitative and quantitative approaches which can be applied to supplier selection problems. However, due to the complexities of the problem and lacking of reliable and quantitative data, qualitative approaches are more than quantitative approaches. This study considers operational cost and supplier’s reliability factor and solves the problem by using a quantitative approach. A mixed integer programming model is the primary analytic tool. Analyses of different scenarios with variable cost and reliability structures show that the effectiveness of this approach to the supplier selection problem.
Abstract: Biogas can be currently considered as an alternative option for electricity production, mainly due to its high energy content (hydrocarbon-rich source), its renewable status and its relatively low utilization cost. Solid Oxide Fuel Cell (SOFC) stacks convert fuel’s chemical energy to electricity with high efficiencies and reveal significant advantages on fuel flexibility combined with lower emissions rate, especially when utilize biogas. Electricity production by biogas constitutes a composite problem which incorporates an extensive parametric analysis on numerous dynamic variables. The main scope of the presented study is to propose a detailed thermodynamic model on the optimization of SOFC-based power plants’ operation based on fundamental thermodynamics, energy and exergy balances. This model named THERMAS (THERmodynamic MAthematical Simulation model) incorporates each individual process, during electricity production, mathematically simulated for different case studies that represent real life operational conditions. Also, THERMAS offers the opportunity to choose a great variety of different values for each operational parameter individually, thus allowing for studies within unexplored and experimentally impossible operational ranges. Finally, THERMAS innovatively incorporates a specific criterion concluded by the extensive energy analysis to identify the most optimal scenario per simulated system in exergy terms. Therefore, several dynamical parameters as well as several biogas mixture compositions have been taken into account, to cover all the possible incidents. Towards the optimization process in terms of an innovative OPF (OPtimization Factor), presented here, this research study reveals that systems supplied by low methane fuels can be comparable to these supplied by pure methane. To conclude, such an innovative simulation model indicates a perspective on the optimal design of a SOFC stack based system, in the direction of the commercialization of systems utilizing biogas.
Abstract: The major objective of this study was to analyze the trend and variability of rainfall in the middle Mahandi river basin located in eastern India. The trend of variation of extreme rainfall events has predominant effect on agricultural water management and extreme hydrological events such as floods and droughts. Mahanadi river basin is one of the major river basins of India having an area of 1,41,589 km2 and divided into three regions: Upper, middle and delta region. The middle region of Mahanadi river basin has an area of 48,700 km2 and it is mostly dominated by agricultural land, where agriculture is mostly rainfed. The study region has five Agro-climatic zones namely: East and South Eastern Coastal Plain, North Eastern Ghat, Western Undulating Zone, Western Central Table Land and Mid Central Table Land, which were numbered as zones 1 to 5 respectively for convenience in reporting. In the present study, analysis of variability and trends of annual, seasonal, and monthly rainfall was carried out, using the daily rainfall data collected from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) for 35 years (1979-2013) for the 5 agro-climatic zones. The long term variability of rainfall was investigated by evaluating the mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The long term trend of rainfall was analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test on monthly, seasonal and annual time scales. It was found that there is a decreasing trend in the rainfall during the winter and pre monsoon seasons for zones 2, 3 and 4; whereas in the monsoon (rainy) season there is an increasing trend for zones 1, 4 and 5 with a level of significance ranging between 90-95%. On the other hand, the mean annual rainfall has an increasing trend at 99% significance level. The estimated seasonality index showed that the rainfall distribution is asymmetric and distributed over 3-4 months period. The study will help to understand the spatio-temporal variation of rainfall and to determine the correlation between the current rainfall trend and climate change scenario of the study region for multifarious use.
Abstract: Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) is the application of technology for developing a user–friendly transportation system for urban areas in developing countries. The goal of urban corridor management using ITS in road transport is to achieve improvements in mobility, safety, and the productivity of the transportation system within the available facilities through the integrated application of advanced monitoring, communications, computer, display, and control process technologies, both in the vehicle and on the road. This paper attempts to present the past studies regarding several ITS available that have been successfully deployed in urban corridors of India and abroad, and to know about the current scenario and the methodology considered for planning, design, and operation of Traffic Management Systems. This paper also presents the endeavor that was made to interpret and figure out the performance of the 27.4 Km long study corridor having eight intersections and four flyovers. The corridor consisting of 6 lanes as well as 8 lanes divided road network. Two categories of data were collected on February 2016 such as traffic data (traffic volume, spot speed, delay) and road characteristics data (no. of lanes, lane width, bus stops, mid-block sections, intersections, flyovers). The instruments used for collecting the data were video camera, radar gun, mobile GPS and stopwatch. From analysis, the performance interpretations incorporated were identification of peak hours and off peak hours, congestion and level of service (LOS) at mid blocks, delay followed by the plotting speed contours and recommending urban corridor management strategies. From the analysis, it is found that ITS based urban corridor management strategies will be useful to reduce congestion, fuel consumption and pollution so as to provide comfort and efficiency to the users. The paper presented urban corridor management strategies based on sensors incorporated in both vehicles and on the roads.
Abstract: Greek islands’ interconnection (IC) with larger power systems, such as the mainland grid, is a crucial issue that has attracted a lot of interest; however, the recent economic recession that the country undergoes together with the highly capital intensive nature of this kind of projects have stalled or sifted the development of many of those on a more long-term basis. On the other hand, most of Greek islands are still heavily dependent on the lengthy and costly supply chain of oil imports whilst the majority of them exhibit excellent potential for wind energy (WE) applications. In this respect, the main purpose of the present work is to investigate −through a parametric study which varies both in wind farm (WF) and submarine IC capacities− the impact of large-scale WE development on the IC of the third in size island of Greece (Lesbos) with the mainland system. The energy and economic performance of the system is simulated over a 25-year evaluation period assuming two possible scenarios, i.e. S(a): without the contribution of the local Thermal Power Plant (TPP) and S(b): the TPP is maintained to ensure electrification of the island. The economic feasibility of the two options is investigated in terms of determining their Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) including also a sensitivity analysis on the worst/reference/best Cases. According to the results, Lesbos island IC presents considerable economic interest for covering part of island’s future electrification needs with WE having a vital role in this challenging venture.
Abstract: High population and irregular urban development in Kabul city, Afghanistan's capital, are among factors that increase its vulnerability to earthquake disasters (on top of its location in a high seismic region); this can lead to widespread economic loss and casualties. This study aims to evaluate earthquake risks in Kabul's 13th district based on scientific data. The research data, which include hazard curves of Kabul, vulnerability curves, and a questionnaire survey through sampling in district 13, have been incorporated to develop risk curves. To estimate potential casualties, we used a set of M parameters in a model developed by Coburn and Spence. The results indicate that in the worst case scenario, more than 90% of district 13, which comprises mostly residential buildings, is exposed to high risk; this may lead to nearly 1000 million USD economic loss and 120 thousand casualties (equal to 25.88% of the 13th district's population) for a nighttime earthquake. To reduce risks, we present the reconstruction of the most vulnerable buildings, which are primarily adobe and masonry buildings. A comparison of risk reduction between reconstructing adobe and masonry buildings indicates that rebuilding adobe buildings would be more effective.
Abstract: Energy is a fundamental component in economic development and energy consumption is an index of prosperity and the standard of living. The consumption of energy per capita has increased significantly over the last decades, as the standard of living has improved. Turkey’s geographical location has several advantages for extensive use of wind power. Among the renewable sources, Turkey has very high wind energy potential. Information such as installation capacity of wind power plants in installation, under construction and license stages in the country are reported in detail. Some suggestions are presented in order to increase the wind power installation capacity of Turkey. Turkey’s economic and social development has led to a massive increase in demand for electricity over the last decades. Since the Turkey has no major oil or gas reserves, it is highly dependent on energy imports and is exposed to energy insecurity in the future. But Turkey does have huge potential for renewable energy utilization. There has been a huge growth in the construction of wind power plants and small hydropower plants in recent years. To meet the growing energy demand, the Turkish Government has adopted incentives for investments in renewable energy production. Wind energy investments evaluated the impact of feed-in tariffs (FIT) based on three scenarios that are optimistic, realistic and pessimistic with APLUS software that is developed for rational evaluation for energy market. Results of the three scenarios are evaluated in the view of electricity market for Turkey.
Abstract: Connected vehicles are one of the promising technologies for future Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). A connected vehicle system is essentially a set of vehicles communicating through a network to exchange their information with each other and the infrastructure. Although this interconnection of the vehicles can be potentially beneficial in creating an efficient, sustainable, and green transportation system, a set of safety and reliability challenges come out with this technology. The first challenge arises from the information loss due to unreliable communication network which affects the control/management system of the individual vehicles and the overall system. Such scenario may lead to degraded or even unsafe operation which could be potentially catastrophic. Secondly, faulty sensors and actuators can affect the individual vehicle’s safe operation and in turn will create a potentially unsafe node in the vehicular network. Further, sending that faulty sensor information to other vehicles and failure in actuators may significantly affect the safe operation of the overall vehicular network. Therefore, it is of utmost importance to take these issues into consideration while designing the control/management algorithms of the individual vehicles as a part of connected vehicle system. In this paper, we consider a connected vehicle system under Co-operative Adaptive Cruise Control (CACC) and propose a fault diagnosis scheme that deals with these aforementioned challenges. Specifically, the conventional CACC algorithm is modified by adding a Kalman filter-based estimation algorithm to suppress the effect of lost information under unreliable network. Further, a sliding mode observer-based algorithm is used to improve the sensor reliability under faults. The effectiveness of the overall diagnostic scheme is verified via simulation studies.
Abstract: In this paper, we describe a Mixed-Initiative Operational
Model (MIOM) which directly intervenes on the state of the
functionalities embedded into a robot for Urban Search&Rescue
(USAR) domain applications. MIOM extends the reasoning
capabilities of the vehicle, i.e. mapping, path planning, visual
perception and trajectory tracking, with operator knowledge.
Especially in USAR scenarios, this coupled initiative has the main
advantage of enhancing the overall performance of a rescue mission.
In-field experiments with rescue responders have been carried out to
evaluate the effectiveness of this operational model.
Abstract: Study of the effects of climate change on Norway
Spruce (Picea abies) forests has mainly focused on the diversity of
tree species diversity of tree species as a result of the ability of
species to tolerate temperature and moisture changes as well as some
effects of disturbance regime changes. The tree species’ diversity
changes in spruce forests due to climate change have been analyzed
via gap model. Forest gap model is a dynamic model for calculation
basic characteristics of individual forest trees. Input ecological data
for model calculations have been taken from the permanent research
plots located in primeval forests in mountainous regions in Slovakia.
The results of regional scenarios of the climatic change for the
territory of Slovakia have been used, from which the values are
according to the CGCM3.1 (global) model, KNMI and MPI
(regional) models. Model results for conditions of the climate change
scenarios suggest a shift of the upper forest limit to the region of the
present subalpine zone, in supramontane zone. N. spruce
representation will decrease at the expense of beech and precious
broadleaved species (Acer sp., Sorbus sp., Fraxinus sp.). The most
significant tree species diversity changes have been identified for the
upper tree line and current belt of dwarf pine (Pinus mugo)
occurrence. The results have been also discussed in relation to most
important disturbances (wind storms, snow and ice storms) and
phenological changes which consequences are little known. Special
discussion is focused on biomass production changes in relation to
carbon storage diversity in different carbon pools.
Abstract: 3D model-based vehicle matching provides a new way
for vehicle recognition, localization and tracking. Its key is to
construct an evaluation function, also called fitness function, to
measure the degree of vehicle matching. The existing fitness functions
often poorly perform when the clutter and occlusion exist in traffic
scenarios. In this paper, we present a practical and efficient fitness
function. Unlike the existing evaluation functions, the proposed
fitness function is to study the vehicle matching problem from
both local and global perspectives, which exploits the pixel gradient
information as well as the silhouette information. In view of the
discrepancy between 3D vehicle model and real vehicle, a weighting
strategy is introduced to differently treat the fitting of the model’s
wireframes. Additionally, a normalization operation for the model’s
projection is performed to improve the accuracy of the matching.
Experimental results on real traffic videos reveal that the proposed
fitness function is efficient and robust to the cluttered background
and partial occlusion.
Abstract: By size and volume of water, Ganges River basin is the biggest among the fourteen major river basins in India. By Hindu’s faith, it is the main ‘holy river’ in this nation. But, of late, the pollution load, both domestic and industrial sources are deteriorating the surface and groundwater as well as land resources and hence the environment of the Ganges River basin is under threat. Seeing this scenario, the Indian government began to reclaim this river by two Ganges Action Plans I and II since 1986 by spending Rs. 2,747.52 crores ($457.92 million). But the result was no improvement in the water quality of the river and groundwater and environment even after almost three decades of reclamation, and hence now the New Indian Government is taking extra care to rejuvenate this river and allotted Rs. 2,037 cores ($339.50 million) in 2014 and Rs. 20,000 crores ($3,333.33 million) in 2015. The reasons for the poor water quality and stinking environment even after three decades of reclamation of the river are either no treatment/partial treatment of the sewage. Hence, now the authors are suggesting a tertiary level treatment standard of sewages of all sources and origins of the Ganges River basin and recycling the entire treated water for nondomestic uses. At 20million litres per day (MLD) capacity of each sewage treatment plant (STP), this basin needs about 2020 plants to treat the entire sewage load. Cost of the STPs is Rs. 3,43,400 million ($5,723.33 million) and the annual maintenance cost is Rs. 15,352 million ($255.87 million). The advantages of the proposed exercise are: we can produce a volume of 1,769.52 million m3 of biogas. Since biogas is energy, can be used as a fuel, for any heating purpose, such as cooking. It can also be used in a gas engine to convert the energy in the gas into electricity and heat. It is possible to generate about 3,539.04 million kilowatt electricity per annum from the biogas generated in the process of wastewater treatment in Ganges basin. The income generation from electricity works out to Rs 10,617.12million ($176.95million). This power can be used to bridge the supply and demand gap of energy in the power hungry villages where 300million people are without electricity in India even today, and to run these STPs as well. The 664.18 million tonnes of sludge generated by the treatment plants per annum can be used in agriculture as manure with suitable amendments. By arresting the pollution load the 187.42 cubic kilometer (km3) of groundwater potential of the Ganges River basin could be protected from deterioration. Since we can recycle the sewage for non-domestic purposes, about 14.75km3 of fresh water per annum can be conserved for future use. The total value of the water saving per annum is Rs.22,11,916million ($36,865.27million) and each citizen of Ganges River basin can save Rs. 4,423.83/ ($73.73) per annum and Rs. 12.12 ($0.202) per day by recycling the treated water for nondomestic uses. Further the environment of this basin could be kept clean by arresting the foul smell as well as the 3% of greenhouse gages emission from the stinking waterways and land. These are the ways to reclaim the waterways of Ganges River basin from deterioration.
Abstract: In this study, the potential of heat recovery from waste flue gas was examined in 60 MW district heating system of a university, and fuel saving was aimed by using the recovered heat in the system as a source again. Various scenarios are intended to make use of waste heat. For this purpose, actual operation data of the system were taken. Besides, the heat recovery units that consist of heat exchangers such as flue gas condensers, economizers or air pre-heaters were designed theoretically for each scenario. Energy analysis of natural gas-fired boiler’s exhaust flue gas in the system, and economic analysis of heat recovery units to predict payback periods were done. According to calculation results, the waste heat loss ratio from boiler flue gas in the system was obtained as average 16%. Thanks to the heat recovery units, thermal efficiency of the system can be increased, and fuel saving can be provided. At the same time, a huge amount of green gas emission can be decreased by installing the heat recovery units.
Abstract: In present scenario, cardiovascular problems are growing challenge for researchers and physiologists. As heart disease have no geographic, gender or socioeconomic specific reasons; detecting cardiac irregularities at early stage followed by quick and correct treatment is very important. Electrocardiogram is the finest tool for continuous monitoring of heart activity. Heart rate variability (HRV) is used to measure naturally occurring oscillations between consecutive cardiac cycles. Analysis of this variability is carried out using time domain, frequency domain and non-linear parameters. This paper presents HRV analysis of the online dataset for normal sinus rhythm (taken as healthy subject) and sudden cardiac death (SCD subject) using all three methods computing values for parameters like standard deviation of node to node intervals (SDNN), square root of mean of the sequences of difference between adjacent RR intervals (RMSSD), mean of R to R intervals (mean RR) in time domain, very low-frequency (VLF), low-frequency (LF), high frequency (HF) and ratio of low to high frequency (LF/HF ratio) in frequency domain and Poincare plot for non linear analysis. To differentiate HRV of healthy subject from subject died with SCD, k –nearest neighbor (k-NN) classifier has been used because of its high accuracy. Results show highly reduced values for all stated parameters for SCD subjects as compared to healthy ones. As the dataset used for SCD patients is recording of their ECG signal one hour prior to their death, it is therefore, verified with an accuracy of 95% that proposed algorithm can identify mortality risk of a patient one hour before its death. The identification of a patient’s mortality risk at such an early stage may prevent him/her meeting sudden death if in-time and right treatment is given by the doctor.