Abstract: Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order
to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also
helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly
for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has
applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control,
rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future
depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as
atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The
values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather
station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The
trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of
data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the
same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial
Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which
uses back propagation algorithm.
Abstract: A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.