Abstract: Accurate forecasting of fresh produce demand is one
the challenges faced by Small Medium Enterprise (SME)
wholesalers. This paper is an attempt to understand the cause for the
high level of variability such as weather, holidays etc., in demand of
SME wholesalers. Therefore, understanding the significance of
unidentified factors may improve the forecasting accuracy. This
paper presents the current literature on the factors used to predict
demand and the existing forecasting techniques of short shelf life
products. It then investigates a variety of internal and external
possible factors, some of which is not used by other researchers in the
demand prediction process. The results presented in this paper are
further analysed using a number of techniques to minimize noise in
the data. For the analysis past sales data (January 2009 to May 2014)
from a UK based SME wholesaler is used and the results presented
are limited to product ‘Milk’ focused on café’s in derby. The
correlation analysis is done to check the dependencies of variability
factor on the actual demand. Further PCA analysis is done to
understand the significance of factors identified using correlation.
The PCA results suggest that the cloud cover, weather summary and
temperature are the most significant factors that can be used in
forecasting the demand. The correlation of the above three factors
increased relative to monthly and becomes more stable compared to
the weekly and daily demand.