Abstract: Portfolio optimization problem has received a lot of attention from both researchers and practitioners over the last six decades. This paper provides an overview of the current state of research in portfolio optimization with the support of mathematical programming techniques. On top of that, this paper also surveys the solution algorithms for solving portfolio optimization models classifying them according to their nature in heuristic and exact methods. To serve these purposes, 40 related articles appearing in the international journal from 2003 to 2013 have been gathered and analyzed. Based on the literature review, it has been observed that stochastic programming and goal programming constitute the highest number of mathematical programming techniques employed to tackle the portfolio optimization problem. It is hoped that the paper can meet the needs of researchers and practitioners for easy references of portfolio optimization.
Abstract: We present in this paper a useful strategy to solve stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs) involving stochastic coefficients. Using the Wick-product of higher order and the Wiener-Itˆo chaos expansion, the SPDEs is reformulated as a large system of deterministic partial differential equations. To reduce the computational complexity of this system, we shall use a decomposition-coordination method. To obtain the chaos coefficients in the corresponding deterministic equations, we use a least square formulation. Once this approximation is performed, the statistics of the numerical solution can be easily evaluated.
Abstract: Due to uncertainty of wind velocity, wind power generators don’t have deterministic output power. Utilizing wind power generation and thermal power plants together create new concerns for operation engineers of power systems. In this paper, a model is presented to implement the uncertainty of load and generated wind power which can be utilized in power system operation planning. Stochastic behavior of parameters is simulated by generating scenarios that can be solved by deterministic method. A mixed-integer linear programming method is used for solving deterministic generation scheduling problem. The proposed approach is applied to a 12-unit test system including 10 thermal units and 2 wind farms. The results show affectivity of piecewise linear model in unit commitment problems. Also using linear programming causes a considerable reduction in calculation times and guarantees convergence to the global optimum. Neglecting the uncertainty of wind velocity causes higher cost assessment of generation scheduling.
Abstract: In this paper, we deal with the fundamental concepts and properties of ergodicity coefficients in a hierarchical sense by making use of partition. Moreover, we establish a hierarchial Hajnal’s inequality improving some previous results.
Abstract: Renewable Energy based microgrids are being considered to provide electricity for the expanding energy demand in the grid distribution network and grid isolated areas. The technical challenges associated with the operation and controls are immense. Electricity generation by Renewable Energy Sources is of stochastic nature such that there is a demand for regulation of voltage output in order to satisfy the standard loads’ requirements. In a renewable energy based microgrid, the energy sources give stochastically variable magnitude AC or DC voltages. AC voltage regulation of micro and mini sources pose practical challenges as well as unbearable costs. It is therefore practically and economically viable to convert the voltage outputs from stochastic AC and DC voltage sources to constant DC voltage to satisfy various DC loads including inverters which ultimately feed AC loads. This paper presents results obtained from SEPIC converter based DC bus voltage regulator as a case study for renewable energy microgrid application. Real-Time Simulation results show that upon appropriate choice of controller parameters for control of the SEPIC converter, the output DC bus voltage can be kept constant regardless of wide range of voltage variations of the source. This feature is particularly important in the situation that multiple renewable sources are to be integrated to supply a microgrid under main grid integration or isolated modes of operation.
Abstract: Modelling is a widely used tool to facilitate the evaluation of disease management. The interest of epidemiological models lies in their ability to explore hypothetical scenarios and provide decision makers with evidence to anticipate the consequences of disease incursion and impact of intervention strategies.
All models are, by nature, simplification of more complex systems. Models that involve diseases can be classified into different categories depending on how they treat the variability, time, space, and structure of the population. Approaches may be different from simple deterministic mathematical models, to complex stochastic simulations spatially explicit.
Thus, epidemiological modelling is now a necessity for epidemiological investigations, surveillance, testing hypotheses and generating follow-up activities necessary to perform complete and appropriate analysis.
The state of the art presented in the following, allows us to position itself to the most appropriate approaches in the epidemiological study.
Abstract: Many approaches to pattern recognition are founded on probability theory, and can be broadly characterized as either generative
or discriminative according to whether or not the distribution of the image features. Generative and discriminative models have
very different characteristics, as well as complementary strengths and weaknesses. In this paper, we study these models to recognize the patterns of alphabet characters (A-Z) and numbers (0-9). To handle isolated pattern, generative model as Hidden Markov Model (HMM) and discriminative models like Conditional Random Field (CRF), Hidden Conditional Random Field (HCRF) and Latent-Dynamic Conditional Random Field (LDCRF) with different number of window size are applied on extracted pattern features. The gesture recognition rate is improved initially as the window size increase, but degrades as window size increase further. Experimental results show that the LDCRF is the best in terms of results than CRF, HCRF and HMM at window size equal 4. Additionally, our results show that; an overall recognition rates are 91.52%, 95.28%, 96.94% and 98.05% for CRF,
HCRF, HMM and LDCRF respectively.
Abstract: This article aims to investigate the performance of a magnetic fluid based squeeze film between rotating transversely rough curved porous annular plates incorporating the effect of elastic deformation. The associated stochastically averaged Reynolds type equation is solved to obtain the pressure distribution leading to the calculation of the load carrying capacity. The results suggest that the transverse roughness of the bearing surfaces affects the performance adversely although the bearing systems register a relatively improved performance due to the magnetization. The deformation causes reduced the load carrying capacity while the curvature parameters tend to nominally increase the load carrying capacity. Besides, the adverse effect of porosity, deformation and standard deviation can be minimized to some extent by the positive effect of the magnetization and the curvature parameters in the case of negatively skewed roughness by suitably choosing the rotational inertia and the aspect ratio, which becomes significant when negative variance occurs.
Abstract: Most empirical studies have analyzed how liquidity risks faced by individual institutions turn into systemic risk. Recent banking crisis has highlighted the importance of grasping and controlling the systemic risk, and the acceptance by Central Banks to ease their monetary policies for saving default or illiquid banks. This last point shows that banks would pay less attention to liquidity risk which, in turn, can become a new important channel of loss. The financial regulation focuses on the most important and “systemic” banks in the global network. However, to quantify the expected loss associated with liquidity risk, it is worth to analyze sensitivity to this channel for the various elements of the global bank network. A small bank is not considered as potentially systemic; however the interaction of small banks all together can become a systemic element. This paper analyzes the impact of medium and small banks interaction on a set of banks which is considered as the core of the network. The proposed method uses the structure of agent-based model in a two-class environment. In first class, the data from actual balance sheets of 22 large and systemic banks (such as BNP Paribas or Barclays) are collected. In second one, to model a network as closely as possible to actual interbank market, 578 fictitious banks smaller than the ones belonging to first class have been split into two groups of small and medium ones. All banks are active on the European interbank network and have deposit and market activity. A simulation of 12 three month periods representing a midterm time interval three years is projected. In each period, there is a set of behavioral descriptions: repayment of matured loans, liquidation of deposits, income from securities, collection of new deposits, new demands of credit, and securities sale. The last two actions are part of refunding process developed in this paper. To strengthen reliability of proposed model, random parameters dynamics are managed with stochastic equations as rates the variations of which are generated by Vasicek model. The Central Bank is considered as the lender of last resort which allows banks to borrow at REPO rate and some ejection conditions of banks from the system are introduced.
Liquidity crunch due to exogenous crisis is simulated in the first class and the loss impact on other bank classes is analyzed though aggregate values representing the aggregate of loans and/or the aggregate of borrowing between classes. It is mainly shown that the three groups of European interbank network do not have the same response, and that intermediate banks are the most sensitive to liquidity risk.
Abstract: In this paper, a stochastic predator-prey system with Holling II functional response is studied. First, we show that there is a unique positive solution to the system for any given positive initial value. Then, stochastically bounded of the positive solution to the stochastic system is derived. Moreover, sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability are also established. In the end, some simulation figures are carried out to support the analytical findings.
Abstract: When faced with stochastic networks with an uncertain
duration for their activities, the securing of network completion time
becomes problematical, not only because of the non-identical pdf of
duration for each node, but also because of the interdependence of
network paths. As evidenced by Adlakha & Kulkarni [1], many
methods and algorithms have been put forward in attempt to resolve
this issue, but most have encountered this same large-size network
problem. Therefore, in this research, we focus on network reduction
through a Series/Parallel combined mechanism. Our suggested
algorithm, named the Activity Network Reduction Algorithm
(ANRA), can efficiently transfer a large-size network into an S/P
Irreducible Network (SPIN). SPIN can enhance stochastic network
analysis, as well as serve as the judgment of symmetry for the Graph
Theory.
Abstract: A case study of the generation scheduling optimization
of the multi-hydroplants on the Yuan River Basin in China is reported
in this paper. Concerning the uncertainty of the inflows, the
long/mid-term generation scheduling (LMTGS) problem is solved by
a stochastic model in which the inflows are considered as stochastic
variables. For the short-term generation scheduling (STGS) problem, a
constraint violation priority is defined in case not all constraints are
satisfied. Provided the stage-wise separable condition and low
dimensions, the hydroplant-based operational region schedules
(HBORS) problem is solved by dynamic programming (DP). The
coordination of LMTGS and STGS is presented as well. The
feasibility and the effectiveness of the models and solution methods
are verified by the numerical results.
Abstract: The optimal control is one of the possible controllers
for a dynamic system, having a linear quadratic regulator and using
the Pontryagin-s principle or the dynamic programming method .
Stochastic disturbances may affect the coefficients (multiplicative
disturbances) or the equations (additive disturbances), provided that
the shocks are not too great . Nevertheless, this approach encounters
difficulties when uncertainties are very important or when the probability
calculus is of no help with very imprecise data. The fuzzy
logic contributes to a pragmatic solution of such a problem since it
operates on fuzzy numbers. A fuzzy controller acts as an artificial
decision maker that operates in a closed-loop system in real time.
This contribution seeks to explore the tracking problem and control
of dynamic macroeconomic models using a fuzzy learning algorithm.
A two inputs - single output (TISO) fuzzy model is applied to the
linear fluctuation model of Phillips and to the nonlinear growth model
of Goodwin.
Abstract: This paper presents an optimal and unsupervised satellite image segmentation approach based on Pearson system and k-Means Clustering Algorithm Initialization. Such method could be considered as original by the fact that it utilised K-Means clustering algorithm for an optimal initialisation of image class number on one hand and it exploited Pearson system for an optimal statistical distributions- affectation of each considered class on the other hand. Satellite image exploitation requires the use of different approaches, especially those founded on the unsupervised statistical segmentation principle. Such approaches necessitate definition of several parameters like image class number, class variables- estimation and generalised mixture distributions. Use of statistical images- attributes assured convincing and promoting results under the condition of having an optimal initialisation step with appropriated statistical distributions- affectation. Pearson system associated with a k-means clustering algorithm and Stochastic Expectation-Maximization 'SEM' algorithm could be adapted to such problem. For each image-s class, Pearson system attributes one distribution type according to different parameters and especially the Skewness 'β1' and the kurtosis 'β2'. The different adapted algorithms, K-Means clustering algorithm, SEM algorithm and Pearson system algorithm, are then applied to satellite image segmentation problem. Efficiency of those combined algorithms was firstly validated with the Mean Quadratic Error 'MQE' evaluation, and secondly with visual inspection along several comparisons of these unsupervised images- segmentation.
Abstract: Strict stability can present the rate of decay of the
solution, so more and more investigators are beginning to study the
topic and some results have been obtained. However, there are few
results about strict stability of stochastic differential equations. In
this paper, using Lyapunov functions and Razumikhin technique, we
have gotten some criteria for the strict stability of impulsive stochastic
functional differential equations with markovian switching.
Abstract: Turbulence of the incoming wind field is of paramount
importance to the dynamic response of civil engineering structures. Hence reliable stochastic models of the turbulence should be available from which time series can be generated for dynamic response and
structural safety analysis. In the paper an empirical cross spectral
density function for the along-wind turbulence component over the wind field area is taken as the starting point. The spectrum is spatially
discretized in terms of a Hermitian cross-spectral density matrix for the turbulence state vector which turns out not to be positive
definite. Since the succeeding state space and ARMA modelling of
the turbulence rely on the positive definiteness of the cross-spectral
density matrix, the problem with the non-positive definiteness of such
matrices is at first addressed and suitable treatments regarding it are proposed. From the adjusted positive definite cross-spectral density
matrix a frequency response matrix is constructed which determines the turbulence vector as a linear filtration of Gaussian white noise.
Finally, an accurate state space modelling method is proposed which allows selection of an appropriate model order, and estimation of a state space model for the vector turbulence process incorporating its phase spectrum in one stage, and its results are compared with a conventional ARMA modelling method.
Abstract: Power line channel is proposed as an alternative for broadband data transmission especially in developing countries like Tanzania [1]. However the channel is affected by stochastic attenuation and deep notches which can lead to the limitation of channel capacity and achievable data rate. Various studies have characterized the channel without giving exactly the maximum performance and limitation in data transfer rate may be this is due to complexity of channel modeling being used. In this paper the channel performance of medium voltage, low voltage and indoor power line channel is presented. In the investigations orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) with phase shift keying (PSK) as carrier modulation schemes is considered, for indoor, medium and low voltage channels with typical ten branches and also Golay coding is applied for medium voltage channel. From channels, frequency response deep notches are observed in various frequencies which can lead to reduce the achievable data rate. However, is observed that data rate up to 240Mbps is realized for a signal to noise ratio of about 50dB for indoor and low voltage channels, however for medium voltage a typical link with ten branches is affected by strong multipath and coding is required for feasible broadband data transfer.
Abstract: In this paper, a single period inventory model with resalable returns has been analyzed in an imprecise and uncertain mixed environment. Demand has been introduced as a fuzzy random variable. In this model, a single order is placed before the start of the selling season. The customer, for a full refund, may return purchased products within a certain time interval. Returned products are resalable, provided they arrive back before the end of the selling season and are found to be undamaged. Products remaining at the end of the season are salvaged. All demands not met directly are lost. The probabilities that a sold product is returned and that a returned product is resalable, both imprecise in a real situation, have been assumed to be fuzzy in nature.
Abstract: The pseudorandom number generators based on linear
feedback shift registers (LFSRs), are very quick, easy and secure in
the implementation of hardware and software. Thus they are very
popular and widely used. But LFSRs lead to fairly easy
cryptanalysis due to their completely linearity properties. In this
paper, we propose a stochastic generator, which is called Random
Feedback Shift Register (RFSR), using stochastic transformation
(Random block) with one-way and non-linearity properties.
Abstract: Over the years, there is a growing trend towards
quality-based specifications in highway construction. In many
Quality Control/Quality Assurance (QC/QA) specifications, the
contractor is primarily responsible for quality control of the process,
whereas the highway agency is responsible for testing the acceptance
of the product. A cooperative investigation was conducted in Illinois
over several years to develop a prototype End-Result Specification
(ERS) for asphalt pavement construction. The final characteristics of
the product are stipulated in the ERS and the contractor is given
considerable freedom in achieving those characteristics. The risk for
the contractor or agency depends on how the acceptance limits and
processes are specified. Stochastic simulation models are very useful
in estimating and analyzing payment risk in ERS systems and these
form an integral part of the Illinois-s prototype ERS system. This
paper describes the development of an innovative methodology to
estimate the variability components in in-situ density, air voids and
asphalt content data from ERS projects. The information gained from
this would be crucial in simulating these ERS projects for estimation
and analysis of payment risks associated with asphalt pavement
construction. However, these methods require at least two parties to
conduct tests on all the split samples obtained according to the
sampling scheme prescribed in present ERS implemented in Illinois.