Abstract: The objective of this study is to propose a statistical
modeling method which enables simultaneous term structure
estimation of the risk-free interest rate, hazard and loss given default,
incorporating the characteristics of the bond issuing company such as
credit rating and financial information. A reduced form model is used
for this purpose. Statistical techniques such as spline estimation and
Bayesian information criterion are employed for parameter estimation
and model selection. An empirical analysis is conducted using the
information on the Japanese bond market data. Results of the
empirical analysis confirm the usefulness of the proposed method.
Abstract: This research is aimed to compare the percentages of correct classification of Empirical Bayes method (EB) to Classical method when data are constructed as near normal, short-tailed and long-tailed symmetric, short-tailed and long-tailed asymmetric. The study is performed using conjugate prior, normal distribution with known mean and unknown variance. The estimated hyper-parameters obtained from EB method are replaced in the posterior predictive probability and used to predict new observations. Data are generated, consisting of training set and test set with the sample sizes 100, 200 and 500 for the binary classification. The results showed that EB method exhibited an improved performance over Classical method in all situations under study.