Abstract: In this paper DJess is presented, a novel distributed production system that provides an infrastructure for factual and procedural knowledge sharing. DJess is a Java package that provides programmers with a lightweight middleware by which inference systems implemented in Jess and running on different nodes of a network can communicate. Communication and coordination among inference systems (agents) is achieved through the ability of each agent to transparently and asynchronously reason on inferred knowledge (facts) that might be collected and asserted by other agents on the basis of inference code (rules) that might be either local or transmitted by any node to any other node.
Abstract: This paper uses p-tolerance with the lowest posterior
loss, quadratic loss function, average length criteria, average
coverage criteria, and worst outcome criterion for computing of
sample size to estimate proportion in Binomial probability function
with Beta prior distribution. The proposed methodology is examined,
and its effectiveness is shown.
Abstract: The requirement to improve software productivity has
promoted the research on software metric technology. There are
metrics for identifying the quality of reusable components but the
function that makes use of these metrics to find reusability of
software components is still not clear. These metrics if identified in
the design phase or even in the coding phase can help us to reduce the
rework by improving quality of reuse of the component and hence
improve the productivity due to probabilistic increase in the reuse
level. CK metric suit is most widely used metrics for the objectoriented
(OO) software; we critically analyzed the CK metrics, tried
to remove the inconsistencies and devised the framework of metrics
to obtain the structural analysis of OO-based software components.
Neural network can learn new relationships with new input data and
can be used to refine fuzzy rules to create fuzzy adaptive system.
Hence, Neuro-fuzzy inference engine can be used to evaluate the
reusability of OO-based component using its structural attributes as
inputs. In this paper, an algorithm has been proposed in which the
inputs can be given to Neuro-fuzzy system in form of tuned WMC,
DIT, NOC, CBO , LCOM values of the OO software component and
output can be obtained in terms of reusability. The developed
reusability model has produced high precision results as expected by
the human experts.
Abstract: Medical Decision Support Systems (MDSSs) are sophisticated, intelligent systems that can provide inference due to lack of information and uncertainty. In such systems, to model the uncertainty various soft computing methods such as Bayesian networks, rough sets, artificial neural networks, fuzzy logic, inductive logic programming and genetic algorithms and hybrid methods that formed from the combination of the few mentioned methods are used. In this study, symptom-disease relationships are presented by a framework which is modeled with a formal concept analysis and theory, as diseases, objects and attributes of symptoms. After a concept lattice is formed, Bayes theorem can be used to determine the relationships between attributes and objects. A discernibility relation that forms the base of the rough sets can be applied to attribute data sets in order to reduce attributes and decrease the complexity of computation.
Abstract: Reverse engineering of full-genomic interaction networks based on compendia of expression data has been successfully applied for a number of model organisms. This study adapts these approaches for an important non-model organism: The major human fungal pathogen Candida albicans. During the infection process, the pathogen can adapt to a wide range of environmental niches and reversibly changes its growth form. Given the importance of these processes, it is important to know how they are regulated. This study presents a reverse engineering strategy able to infer fullgenomic interaction networks for C. albicans based on a linear regression, utilizing the sparseness criterion (LASSO). To overcome the limited amount of expression data and small number of known interactions, we utilize different prior-knowledge sources guiding the network inference to a knowledge driven solution. Since, no database of known interactions for C. albicans exists, we use a textmining system which utilizes full-text research papers to identify known regulatory interactions. By comparing with these known regulatory interactions, we find an optimal value for global modelling parameters weighting the influence of the sparseness criterion and the prior-knowledge. Furthermore, we show that soft integration of prior-knowledge additionally improves the performance. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to state of the art network inference approaches.
Abstract: The general idea behind the filter is to average a pixel
using other pixel values from its neighborhood, but simultaneously to
take care of important image structures such as edges. The main
concern of the proposed filter is to distinguish between any variations
of the captured digital image due to noise and due to image structure.
The edges give the image the appearance depth and sharpness. A
loss of edges makes the image appear blurred or unfocused.
However, noise smoothing and edge enhancement are traditionally
conflicting tasks. Since most noise filtering behaves like a low pass
filter, the blurring of edges and loss of detail seems a natural
consequence. Techniques to remedy this inherent conflict often
encompass generation of new noise due to enhancement.
In this work a new fuzzy filter is presented for the noise reduction
of images corrupted with additive noise. The filter consists of three
stages. (1) Define fuzzy sets in the input space to computes a fuzzy
derivative for eight different directions (2) construct a set of IFTHEN
rules by to perform fuzzy smoothing according to
contributions of neighboring pixel values and (3) define fuzzy sets in
the output space to get the filtered and edged image.
Experimental results are obtained to show the feasibility of the
proposed approach with two dimensional objects.
Abstract: This paper presents the design and implementation of
the WebGD, a CORBA-based document classification and retrieval
system on Internet. The WebGD makes use of such techniques as Web,
CORBA, Java, NLP, fuzzy technique, knowledge-based processing
and database technology. Unified classification and retrieval model,
classifying and retrieving with one reasoning engine and flexible
working mode configuration are some of its main features. The
architecture of WebGD, the unified classification and retrieval model,
the components of the WebGD server and the fuzzy inference engine
are discussed in this paper in detail.
Abstract: We constructed a method of phase unwrapping for a typical wave-front by utilizing the maximizer of the posterior marginal (MPM) estimate corresponding to equilibrium statistical mechanics of the three-state Ising model on a square lattice on the basis of an analogy between statistical mechanics and Bayesian inference. We investigated the static properties of an MPM estimate from a phase diagram using Monte Carlo simulation for a typical wave-front with synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry. The simulations clarified that the surface-consistency conditions were useful for extending the phase where the MPM estimate was successful in phase unwrapping with a high degree of accuracy and that introducing prior information into the MPM estimate also made it possible to extend the phase under the constraint of the surface-consistency conditions with a high degree of accuracy. We also found that the MPM estimate could be used to reconstruct the original wave-fronts more smoothly, if we appropriately tuned hyper-parameters corresponding to temperature to utilize fluctuations around the MAP solution. Also, from the viewpoint of statistical mechanics of the Q-Ising model, we found that the MPM estimate was regarded as a method for searching the ground state by utilizing thermal fluctuations under the constraint of the surface-consistency condition.
Abstract: Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.
Abstract: The prediction of financial time series is a very
complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather
controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends
the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency
Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high
frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the
training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed.
Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based
volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input
and has increased the overall performance of the system.
Abstract: In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit
are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion
periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference system with triangular membership function. We examine
the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of
sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the
Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms
significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period.
This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more
reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.
Abstract: Process capability index Cpk is the most widely
used index in making managerial decisions since it provides bounds
on the process yield for normally distributed processes. However,
existent methods for assessing process performance which
constructed by statistical inference may unfortunately lead to fine
results, because uncertainties exist in most real-world applications.
Thus, this study adopts fuzzy inference to deal with testing of Cpk .
A brief score is obtained for assessing a supplier’s process instead of
a severe evaluation.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present two different
approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for
risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample
of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan
Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We
present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With
the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including
more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the
in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in
random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other
hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and
we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both
in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a
more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the
economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical
services.
Abstract: We consider a heterogeneously mixing SIR stochastic
epidemic process in populations described by a general graph.
Likelihood theory is developed to facilitate statistic inference for the
parameters of the model under complete observation. We show that
these estimators are asymptotically Gaussian unbiased estimates by
using a martingale central limit theorem.
Abstract: Software effort estimation is the process of predicting
the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain
software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort
estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans,
budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix,
Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used
to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical
Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are
experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The
performances of the developed models were tested on NASA
software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead,
Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based
models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF
Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model
shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid
Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for
the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.
Abstract: In this paper I have developed a system for evaluating
the degree of fear emotion that the intelligent agent-based system
may feel when it encounters to a persecuting event. In this paper I
want to describe behaviors of emotional agents using human
behavior in terms of the way their emotional states evolve over time.
I have implemented a fuzzy inference system using Java
environment. As the inputs of this system, I have considered three
parameters related on human fear emotion. The system outputs can
be used in agent decision making process or choosing a person for
team working systems by combination the intensity of fear to other
emotion intensities.
Abstract: Recent years have seen a growing trend towards the
integration of multiple information sources to support large-scale
prediction of protein-protein interaction (PPI) networks in model
organisms. Despite advances in computational approaches, the
combination of multiple “omic" datasets representing the same type
of data, e.g. different gene expression datasets, has not been
rigorously studied. Furthermore, there is a need to further investigate
the inference capability of powerful approaches, such as fullyconnected
Bayesian networks, in the context of the prediction of PPI
networks. This paper addresses these limitations by proposing a
Bayesian approach to integrate multiple datasets, some of which
encode the same type of “omic" data to support the identification of
PPI networks. The case study reported involved the combination of
three gene expression datasets relevant to human heart failure (HF).
In comparison with two traditional methods, Naive Bayesian and
maximum likelihood ratio approaches, the proposed technique can
accurately identify known PPI and can be applied to infer potentially
novel interactions.
Abstract: Sickness absence represents a major economic and
social issue. Analysis of sick leave data is a recurrent challenge to analysts because of the complexity of the data structure which is
often time dependent, highly skewed and clumped at zero. Ignoring these features to make statistical inference is likely to be inefficient
and misguided. Traditional approaches do not address these problems. In this study, we discuss model methodologies in terms of statistical techniques for addressing the difficulties with sick leave data. We also introduce and demonstrate a new method by performing a longitudinal assessment of long-term absenteeism using
a large registration dataset as a working example available from the Helsinki Health Study for municipal employees from Finland during the period of 1990-1999. We present a comparative study on model
selection and a critical analysis of the temporal trends, the occurrence
and degree of long-term sickness absences among municipal employees. The strengths of this working example include the large
sample size over a long follow-up period providing strong evidence in supporting of the new model. Our main goal is to propose a way to
select an appropriate model and to introduce a new methodology for analysing sickness absence data as well as to demonstrate model
applicability to complicated longitudinal data.
Abstract: In this paper we investigate the influence of external
noise on the inference of network structures. The purpose of our
simulations is to gain insights in the experimental design of microarray
experiments to infer, e.g., transcription regulatory networks
from microarray experiments. Here external noise means, that the
dynamics of the system under investigation, e.g., temporal changes of
mRNA concentration, is affected by measurement errors. Additionally
to external noise another problem occurs in the context of microarray
experiments. Practically, it is not possible to monitor the mRNA
concentration over an arbitrary long time period as demanded by the
statistical methods used to learn the underlying network structure. For
this reason, we use only short time series to make our simulations
more biologically plausible.
Abstract: In determining the electromagnetic properties of
magnetic materials, hysteresis modeling is of high importance. Many
models are available to investigate those characteristics but they tend
to be complex and difficult to implement. In this paper a new
qualitative hysteresis model for ferromagnetic core is presented,
based on the function approximation capabilities of adaptive neuro
fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The proposed ANFIS model
combined the neural network adaptive capabilities and the fuzzy
logic qualitative approach can restored the hysteresis curve with a
little RMS error. The model accuracy is good and can be easily
adapted to the requirements of the application by extending or
reducing the network training set and thus the required amount of
measurement data.