Abstract: Indonesia has experienced annual forest fires that have
rapidly destroyed and degraded its forests. Fires in the peat swamp
forests of Riau Province, have set the stage for problems to worsen,
this being the ecosystem most prone to fires (which are also the most
difficult, to extinguish). Despite various efforts to curb deforestation,
and forest degradation processes, severe forest fires are still
occurring. To find an effective solution, the basic causes of the
problems must be identified. It is therefore critical to have an indepth
understanding of the underlying causal factors that have
contributed to deforestation and forest degradation as a whole, in
order to attain reductions in their rates. An assessment of the drivers of deforestation and forest
degradation was carried out, in order to design and implement
measures that could slow these destructive processes. Research was
conducted in Giam Siak Kecil–Bukit Batu Biosphere Reserve
(GSKBB BR), in the Riau Province of Sumatera, Indonesia. A
biosphere reserve was selected as the study site because such reserves
aim to reconcile conservation with sustainable development. A
biosphere reserve should promote a range of local human activities,
together with development values that are in line spatially and
economically with the area conservation values, through use of a
zoning system. Moreover, GSKBB BR is an area with vast peatlands,
and is experiencing forest fires annually. Various factors were
analysed to assess the drivers of deforestation and forest degradation
in GSKBB BR; data were collected from focus group discussions
with stakeholders, key informant interviews with key stakeholders,
field observation and a literature review. Landsat satellite imagery was used to map forest-cover changes
for various periods. Analysis of landsat images, taken during the
period 2010-2014, revealed that within the non-protected area of core
zone, there was a trend towards decreasing peat swamp forest areas,
increasing land clearance, and increasing areas of community oilpalm
and rubber plantations. Fire was used for land clearing and most
of the forest fires occurred in the most populous area (the transition
area). The study found a relationship between the deforested/
degraded areas, and certain distance variables, i.e. distance from
roads, villages and the borders between the core area and the buffer
zone. The further the distance from the core area of the reserve, the
higher was the degree of deforestation and forest degradation. Research findings suggested that agricultural expansion may be
the direct cause of deforestation and forest degradation in the reserve,
whereas socio-economic factors were the underlying driver of forest
cover changes; such factors consisting of a combination of sociocultural,
infrastructural, technological, institutional (policy and governance), demographic (population pressure) and economic
(market demand) considerations. These findings indicated that local
factors/problems were the critical causes of deforestation and
degradation in GSKBB BR. This research therefore concluded that
reductions in deforestation and forest degradation in GSKBB BR
could be achieved through ‘local actor’-tailored approaches such as
community empowerment.
Abstract: This study analyzes the critical gaps in the
architecture of European stability and the expected role of the
banking union as the new important step towards completing the
Economic and Monetary Union that should enable the creation of
safe and sound financial sector for the euro area market. The single
rulebook together with the Single Supervisory Mechanism and the
Single Resolution Mechanism - as two main pillars of the banking
union, should provide a consistent application of common rules and
administrative standards for supervision, recovery and resolution of
banks – with the final aim of replacing the former bail-out practice
with the bail-in system through which possible future bank failures
would be resolved by their own funds, i.e. with minimal costs for
taxpayers and real economy. In this way, the vicious circle between
banks and sovereigns would be broken. It would also reduce the
financial fragmentation recorded in the years of crisis as the result of
divergent behaviors in risk premium, lending activities and interest
rates between the core and the periphery. In addition, it should
strengthen the effectiveness of monetary transmission channels, in
particular the credit channels and overflows of liquidity on the money
market which, due to the fragmentation of the common financial
market, has been significantly disabled in period of crisis. However,
contrary to all the positive expectations related to the future
functioning of the banking union, major findings of this study
indicate that characteristics of the economic system in which the
banking union will operate should not be ignored. The euro area is an
integration of strong and weak entities with large differences in
economic development, wealth, assets of banking systems, growth
rates and accountability of fiscal policy. The analysis indicates that
low and unbalanced economic growth remains a challenge for the
maintenance of financial stability and this problem cannot be
resolved just by a single supervision. In many countries bank assets
exceed their GDP by several times and large banks are still a matter
of concern, because of their systemic importance for individual
countries and the euro zone as a whole. The creation of the Single
Supervisory Mechanism and the Single Resolution Mechanism is a
response to the European crisis, which has particularly affected
peripheral countries and caused the associated loop between the
banking crisis and the sovereign debt crisis, but has also influenced
banks’ balance sheets in the core countries, as the result of crossborder
capital flows. The creation of the SSM and the SRM should
prevent the similar episodes to happen again and should also provide
a new opportunity for strengthening of economic and financial
systems of the peripheral countries. On the other hand, there is a
potential threat that future focus of the ECB, resolution mechanism
and other relevant institutions will be extremely oriented towards
large and significant banks (whereby one half of them operate in the
core and most important euro area countries), and therefore it remains
questionable to what extent will the common resolution funds will be used for rescue of less important institutions. Recent geopolitical
developments will be the optimal indicator to show whether the
previously established mechanisms are sufficient enough to maintain
the adequate financial stability in the euro area market.
Abstract: In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the
artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the
complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM
aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro
level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of
patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The
financial market system is a complex system where the relationship
between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically.
Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to
comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation
technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by
discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles
of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse
assumption in the construction of agent’s attributes. Also, the
influence of social networks in the developing of agents interactions is
addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based,
and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic
collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing
agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized.
These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic
Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning.
In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts)
of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are
discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous
studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these
studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions
are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro
level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by
investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.
Abstract: Sustainability is a very important and heavily
discussed subject, expanding through tourism as well. The study
proposition was to collect data and present it to the competent bodies
so they can mold their public policies to improve the conditions of
the site. It was hypothesized that the lack of data is currently
affecting the quality of life and the sustainable development of the
site and the tourism. The research was held in Mateiros, a city in the
state of Tocantins (TO)/Brasil near Palmas, its capital city. Because
of the concentration of tourists during the high season and several
tourist attractions being around, the research took place in Mateiros.
The methodological procedure had a script of theoretical construction
and investigation of the deductive scientific method parameters
through a case study in the Jalapão/TO/Brazil region, using it as a
tool for a questionnaire given to the competent bodies in an interview
system with the UN sustainability indexes as a base. In the three
sustainable development scope: environmental, social and economic,
the results indicated that the data presented by the interviewed were
scarce or nonexistent. It shows that more research is necessary,
providing the tools for the ones responsible to propose action plans to
improve the site, strengthening the tourism and making it even more
sustainable.
Abstract: In developing countries, one of the most important
restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings
which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome
this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by
increasing the level of output, countries choose the external
borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the
correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of
this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish
economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over
the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen
Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance
Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings
show that there is no cointegration in the long run.
Abstract: Nowadays, technological progress is one of the most
important components of economic growth and the efficiency of
R&D activities is particularly essential for countries. This study is an
attempt to analyze the R&D efficiencies of EU countries. The
indicators related to R&D efficiencies should be determined in
advance in order to use DEA. For this reason a list of input and
output indicators are derived from the literature review. Considering
the data availability, a final list is given for the numerical analysis for
future research.
Abstract: In recent years, fire accidents have been steadily
increased and the amount of property damage caused by the accidents
has gradually raised. Damaging building structure, fire incidents bring
about not only such property damage but also strength degradation and
member deformation. As a result, the building structure undermines its
structural ability. Examining the degradation and the deformation is
very important because reusing the building is more economical than
reconstruction. Therefore, engineers need to investigate the strength
degradation and member deformation well, and make sure that they
apply right rehabilitation methods. This study aims at evaluating
deformation characteristics of fire damaged and rehabilitated normal
strength concrete beams through both experiments and finite element
analyses. For the experiments, control beams, fire damaged beams and
rehabilitated beams are tested to examine deformation characteristics.
Ten test beam specimens with compressive strength of 21MPa are
fabricated and main test variables are selected as cover thickness of
40mm and 50mm and fire exposure time of 1 hour or 2 hours. After
heating, fire damaged beams are air-recurred for 2 months and
rehabilitated beams are repaired with polymeric cement mortar after
being removed the fire damaged concrete cover. All beam specimens
are tested under four points loading. FE analyses are executed to
investigate the effects of main parameters applied to experimental
study. Test results show that both maximum load and stiffness of the
rehabilitated beams are higher than those of the fire damaged beams.
In addition, predicted structural behaviors from the analyses also show
good rehabilitation effect and the predicted load-deflection curves are
similar to the experimental results. For the further, the proposed
analytical method can be used to predict deformation characteristics of
fire damaged and rehabilitated concrete beams without suffering from
time and cost consuming of experimental process.
Abstract: The causality between energy consumption and
economic growth has been an important issue in the economic
literature. This paper studies the causal relationship between
electricity consumption and economic growth in Mexico for the
period of 1971-2011. In so doing, unit root and causality tests are
applied. The results show that energy consumption and economic
growth series are stationary and there is also a causality relationship
running from economic growth to electricity consumption. Therefore,
any energy conservation policy would have little or no impact at all
on economic growth in México.
Abstract: This study utilizes a frequency domain approach over
the period of 1996 to 2013 to examine the causal relationship between
governance and economic growth in ten Asian countries, which have
different levels of democracy; classified as “Free”, “Partly Free”, and
“Not Free” countries. The empirical results show that there is no
Granger causality running from governance to economic growth in
“Not Free” countries and “Partly Free” countries with the exception of
Singapore. As for “Free” countries such as South Korea and Taiwan,
there is a one-way causality running from governance to economic
growth. The findings of this study indicate that policy makers in South
Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore could use governance index to improve
their predictions of the future economic growth.
Abstract: The economic use and ease of construction of profiled
deck composite slab is marred with the complex and un-economic
strength verification required for the serviceability and general safety
considerations. Beside these, albeit factors such as shear span length,
deck geometries and mechanical frictions greatly influence the
longitudinal shear strength, that determines the ultimate strength of
profiled deck composite slab, and number of methods available for its
determination; partial shear and slope-intercept are the two methods
according to Euro-code 4 provision. However, the complexity
associated with shear behavior of profiled deck composite slab, the
use of these methods in determining the load carrying capacities of
such slab yields different and conflicting values. This couple with the
time and cost constraint associated with the strength verification is a
source of concern that draws more attentions nowadays, the issue is
critical. Treating some of these known shear strength influencing
factors as random variables, the load carrying capacity violation of
profiled deck composite slab from the use of the two-methods
defined according to Euro-code 4 are determined using reliability
approach, and comparatively studied. The study reveals safety values
from the use of m-k method shows good standing compared with that
from the partial shear method.
Abstract: The aim of the present study is to detect the chaotic
behavior in monetary economic relevant dynamical system. The
study employs three different forms of Taylor rules: current, forward,
and backward looking. The result suggests the existence of the
chaotic behavior in all three systems. In addition, the results strongly
represent that using expectations in policy rule especially rational
expectation hypothesis can increase complexity of the system and
leads to more chaotic behavior.
Abstract: The efficient and economic allocation of resources is
one main goal in the field of production planning and control.
Nowadays, a new variable gains in importance throughout the
planning process: Energy. Energy-efficiency has already been widely
discussed in literature, but with a strong focus on reducing the overall
amount of energy used in production. This paper provides a brief
systematic approach, how energy-supply-orientation can be used for
an energy-cost-efficient production planning and thus combining the
idea of energy-efficiency and energy-flexibility.
Abstract: This paper describes a novel sensor device, a pressure
pulse wave meter, which uses a bidirectional condenser microphone.
The microphone work as a microphone as well as a sensor with high
gain over a wide frequency range; they are also highly reliable and
economic. Currently aging is becoming a serious social issue in Japan causing
increased medical expenses in the country. Hence, it is important for
elderly citizens to check health condition at home, and to care the
health conditions through daily monitoring. Given this circumstances,
we developed a novel pressure pulse wave meter based on a
bidirectional condenser microphone: this device is used as a measuring
instrument of health conditions.
Abstract: In this paper, we explore the macroeconomic effects
of the European Single Market on Austria by simulating the
McKibbin-Sachs Global Model. Global interdependences and the
impact of long-run effects on short-run adjustments are taken into
account. We study the sensitivity of the results with respect to
different assumptions concerning monetary and fiscal policies for the
countries and regions of the world economy. The consequences of
different assumptions about budgetary policies in Austria are also
investigated. The simulation results are contrasted with ex-post
evaluations of the actual impact of Austria’s membership in the
Single Market. As a result, it can be concluded that the Austrian
participation in the European Single Market entails considerable
long-run gains for the Austrian economy with nearly no adverse sideeffects
on any macroeconomic target variable.
Abstract: Cyber exercises used to assess the preparedness of a
community against cyber crises, technology failures and Critical
Information Infrastructure (CII) incidents. The cyber exercises also
called cyber crisis exercise or cyber drill, involved partnerships or
collaboration of public and private agencies from several sectors.
This study investigates Organisation Cyber Resilience (OCR) of
participation sectors in cyber exercise called X Maya in Malaysia.
This study used a principal based cyber resilience survey called CSuite
Executive checklist developed by World Economic Forum in
2012. To ensure suitability of the survey to investigate the OCR, the
reliability test was conducted on C-Suite Executive checklist items.
The research further investigates the differences of OCR in ten
Critical National Infrastructure Information (CNII) sectors
participated in the cyber exercise. The One Way ANOVA test result
showed a statistically significant difference of OCR among ten CNII
sectors participated in the cyber exercise.
Abstract: Despite the advances made in various new
technologies, application of these technologies for agriculture still
remains a formidable task, as it involves integration of diverse
domains for monitoring the different process involved in agricultural
management. Advances in ambient intelligence technology represents
one of the most powerful technology for increasing the yield of
agricultural crops and to mitigate the impact of water scarcity,
climatic change and methods for managing pests, weeds and diseases.
This paper proposes a GPS-assisted, machine to machine solutions
that combine information collected by multiple sensors for the
automated management of paddy crops. To maintain the economic
viability of paddy cultivation, the various techniques used in
agriculture are discussed and a novel system which uses ambient
intelligence technique is proposed in this paper. The ambient
intelligence based agricultural system gives a great scope.
Abstract: This paper investigates the connotation, and some of
the realistic implications, of the economic reform of health sector in
under developed countries. The paper investigates the issues that
economic reforms have to address, and the policy targets they are
considered to accomplish. The work argues that the development of
economic reform is not connected only with understanding the
priorities and refining them, furthermore with reformation and
restructuring the organizations through which health policies are
employed. Considering various organizational values, that are likely
to be regular to all economic reform programs, a regulatory approach
to institutional reform is unsuitable. The paper further investigates the
selection of economic reform that may as well influence via technical
suggestions and analysis, but the verdict to continue, and the
consequent success of execution, eventually depends on the
progressive political sustainability. The paper concludes by giving
examples of institutional reforms from various underdeveloped
countries and includes recommendation of the responsibility and
control of donor organizations.
Abstract: This paper concludes that, for economic development,
and to ensure survival, Kenya and similar countries must industrialize
their economy and mechanize their agriculture using modern large
scale methods.
Abstract: This study conducts simulation analyses to find the
optimal debt ceiling of Taiwan, while factoring in welfare
maximization under a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
framework. The simulation is based on Taiwan's 2001 to 2011
economic data and shows that welfare is maximized at a debt/GDP
ratio of 0.2, increases in the debt/GDP ratio leads to increases in both
tax and interest rates and decreases in the consumption ratio and
working hours. The study results indicate that the optimal debt ceiling
of Taiwan is 20% of GDP, where if the debt/GDP ratio is greater than
40%, the welfare will be negative and result in welfare loss.
Abstract: This paper proposes a linear model for optimizing
domestic energy consumption in Romania. The particularity of the
model is that it is putting in competition both tangible technologies
and thermal insulation projects with different financing modes.
The model is optimizing the energy system by minimizing the
global discounted cost in household sector, by integrating residential
lighting, space heating, hot water, combined space heating – hot
water, as well as space cooling, in a monolithic model. Another
demand sector included is the passenger transport.
This paper focuses on space heating part, analyzing technical and
economic issues related to investment decisions to envelope and
insulate buildings, in order to minimize energy consumption.