Study of Influencing Factors of Shrinking Cities Based On Factor Analysis – The Example of Halle, Germany

City shrinkage is one of the thorny problems that many
European cities have to face with nowadays. It is mainly expressed as
the decrease of population in these cities. Eastern Germany is one of
the pioneers of European shrinking cities with long shrinking history.
The paper selects one representative shrinking city Halle (Saale) in
eastern Germany as research objective, collecting and investigating
nearly 20 years (1993-2010) municipal data after the reunification of
Germany. These data based on five dimensions, which are
demographic, economic, social, spatial and environmental and total 16
eligible variables. Factor Analysis is used to deal with these variables
in order to assess the most important factors affecting shrinking Halle.
The results show that there are three main factors determine the
shrinkage of Halle, respectively named “demographical and
economical factor”, “social stability factor”, and “city vitality factor”.
The three factors act at different time period of Halle’s shrinkage: from
1993 to 1997 the demographical and economical factor played an
important role; from 1997 to 2004 the social stability factor is
significant to city shrinkage; since 2005 city vitality factor determines
the shrinkage of Halle. In recent years, the shrinkage in Halle mitigates
that shows the sign of growing population. Thus the city Halle should
focus on attaching more importance on the city vitality factor to
prevent the city from shrinkage. Meanwhile, the city should possess a
positive perspective to shift the growth-oriented development to tap
the potential of shrinking cities. This method is expected to apply to
further research and other shrinking cities

• Fang Yao
• Minglei Chen

• Demography
• Factor analysis
• Halle
• Shrinking cities.

[1] S. Schetke, D. Haase, "Multi-criteria assessment of socio-environmental
aspects in shrinking cities. Experiences from Eastern Germany."
Environmental Impact Assessment Review, vol. 28, no. 7, pp. 483–503,
2008.
[2] H. Schlappa, W. J. V. Neill, “From crisis to choice: re-imagining the
future in shrinking cities”, URBACT, Saint-Denis, 2013.
[3] I. Turok and V. Mykhnenko, “The trajectories of European cities,
1960-2005”, Cities, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 165–182, 2007.
[4] T. Wiechmann, "Conversion strategies under uncertainty in post-socialist
shrinking cities: The example of Dresden in Eastern Germany." The
Future of Shrinking Cities–Problems, Patterns and Strategies of Urban
Transformation in a Global Context, Monograph Series, pp. 5-16, 2009.
[5] K. Grossmann, M. Bontje, A. Haase and V. Mykhnenko, “Shrinking
cities: Notes for the further research agenda”, Cities, vol. 35, pp.
221--225, 2013.
[6] A. Haase, G. Herfert, S. Kabisch and A. Steinfuhrer, “Reurbanizing
Leipzig (Germany): Context Conditions and Residential Actors
(2000-2007)”, European Planning Studies, vol. 20, no. 7, pp. 1173--1196,
2012.
[7] B. Brandstetter, T. Lang, and A. Pfeifer. "Dealing with the shrinking
city-a debate overview (Umgang mit der schrumpfenden Stadt–ein
Debattenüberblick)" Berliner Debatte Initial, pp.55-68, 2005.
[8] E. Rall and D. Haase, “Creative intervention in a dynamic city: A
sustainability assessment of an interim use strategy for brownfields in
Leipzig, Germany”, Landscape and Urban Planning, vol. 100, no. 3, pp.
189--201, 2011.
[9] M. Bontje, “Facing the challenge of shrinking cities in East Germany:
The case of Leipzig”, GeoJournal, vol. 61, no. 1, pp. 13--21, 2005.
[10] U. Pfeiffer, H. Simons, and L. Porsch. "Apartment Economic structural
change in the new federal states (Wohnungswirtschaftlicher
Strukturwandel in den neuen Bundesländern)" Commission Report, 2000.
[11] D. Haase, S. Lautenbach and R. Seppelt, “Modeling and simulating
residential mobility in a shrinking city using an agent-based approach”,
Environmental Modelling \& Software, vol. 25, no. 10, pp. 1225-1240,
2010.
[12] H. Richardson and C. Nam, Shrinking cities, 1st ed.
[13] S. Kabisch, A. Haase and D. Haase, “Beyond growth--urban development
in shrinking cities as a challenge for modeling approaches”, 2006.
[14] P. Oswalt, Shrinking cities, 1st ed. Ostfildern: Hatje Cantz, 2005.
[15] D. Rink, A. Haase, M. Bernt, T. Arndt, J. Ludwig, “Urban Shrinkage in
Halle, Germany”, Research Report, EU 7 FP Project Shrink Smart, 2012.
[16] Stadt Halle (Saale), “Statistical Yearbook of the City Halle (Saale)”,
Halle (Saale), 2003-2010.