Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines Using Subset Simulation
An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.
<p>[1] G. I. Schueller, and H. J. Pradlwarter, “Benchmark study on reliability estimation in higher dimensions of structural systems – An overview,” Structural Safety, pp. 167–182, 2007.
[2] K. M. Zuev, J. L. Beck, S. K. Au, and L. S. Katafygiotis, “Bayesian post-processor and other enhancements of subset simulation for estimating failure probabilities in high dimensions,” Computers and Structures, pp. 283-296, 2012.
[3] K. F. Tee and C. Q. Li, “A numerical study of maintenance strategy for concrete structures in marine environment,” Proc. of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Zurich, Switzerland, August 1-4, pp. 618 – 625, 2011.
[4] K. F. Tee and L. R. Khan, “Risk-Cost Optimization and Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines.” Proc. of the 6th International ASRANet Conference, London, UK, July 2-4, 2012, Paper 49.
[5] S. G. L. Babu and A. Srivastava, “Reliability analysis of buried flexible pipe-soil systems,” Journal of Pipeline Systems |Engineering and Practice, ASCE, 1(1), pp. 33-41, 2010.
[6] K. F. Tee, C. Q. Li and M. Mahmoodian, “Prediction of time-variant probability of failure for concrete sewer pipes,” Proc. of the 12th International Conference on Durability of Building Materials and Components, Porto, Portugal, April 12-15, 2011.
[7] Y. Fang, J. Chen and K. F. Tee, “Analysis of structural dynamic reliability based on the probability density evolution method,” Structural Engineering and Mechanics, 45(2), pp. 201-209, 2013.
[8] S. K. Au and J. L. Beck, “Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation,” Journal of Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 16, pp. 263 – 277, 2001.
[9] E. Zio and N. Pedroni, “Estimation of the functional failure probability of a thermal hydraulic passive system by subset simulation”. Dept. of Energy, Polytechnic of Milan, Italy, 2008.
[10] M. Ahammed and R. E. Melchers, “Reliability of pipelines subject to corrosion,” Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, 120(6), pp. 989 – 1002, 1994.
[11] R. Sadiq, B. Rajani and Y. Kleiner, “Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 86(1), p 1-10, 2004.
[12] R. K. Watkins and L. R. Anderson. Structural Mechanics of buried pipes. CRC Press, LLC, Washington, D.C. USA, 2000.
[13] K. F. Tee, L.R. Khan and H.P. Chen, “Probabilistic failure analysis of underground flexible pipes,” Structural Engineering and Mechanics, 47(2), pp. 167-183, 2013.
[14] BS EN 1295:1-1997. Structural design of buried pipelines under various conditions of loading - General requirements. British Standards Institution, United Kingdom, 2010.
[15] Sarplast: Iniziative Industriali, S.P.A. Installation Manual. pp. 19 – 23, Santa Luce, Italy, 2008.
[16] AWWA (American Water Works Association). Buried pipe design, Fiberglass Pipe Design, AWWA Manual M45, pp. 35 – 53, 1999.
[17] Hancor Inc. HDPE Pipe design. Drainage Handbook, Chapter 2. United States, 2009.
[18] W. Mohr. Strain based design of pipelines. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service and Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Project No. 45892GTH, USA, 2003.
[19] L. H. Gabriel. Corrugated polyethylene pipe design manual and installation guide. Plastic Pipe Institute, USA, 2011.
[20] S. K. Au and J. L. Beck, “Subset simulation and its application to seismic risk based on dynamic analysis,” Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 129(8), pp. 901 – 917, 2003.
[21] S. Song, Z. Lu and H. Qiao, “Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis,” Journal of reliability engineering and system safety, pp. 658 – 665, Elsevier ltd, 2009.
[22] S. K. Au, J. Ching and J. L. Beck, “Application of subset simulation methods to reliability benchmark problems,” Journal of Structural Safety, 29, pp. 183-193, 2007.
[23] M. Ahammed and R. E. Melchers, “Probabilistic analysis of pipelines subject to combined stresses and corrosion,” Engineering Structure, Vol. 19, No. 12, pp. 988-994, Elsevier science ltd. 1997.
[24] T. Fetz and F. Tonon, “Probability bounds for series systems with variables constrained by sets of probability measures,” International Journal on Reliability and safety, 2(4), pp. 309 – 339, 2008.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>[1] G. I. Schueller, and H. J. Pradlwarter, “Benchmark study on reliability estimation in higher dimensions of structural systems – An overview,” Structural Safety, pp. 167–182, 2007.
[2] K. M. Zuev, J. L. Beck, S. K. Au, and L. S. Katafygiotis, “Bayesian post-processor and other enhancements of subset simulation for estimating failure probabilities in high dimensions,” Computers and Structures, pp. 283-296, 2012.
[3] K. F. Tee and C. Q. Li, “A numerical study of maintenance strategy for concrete structures in marine environment,” Proc. of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Zurich, Switzerland, August 1-4, pp. 618 – 625, 2011.
[4] K. F. Tee and L. R. Khan, “Risk-Cost Optimization and Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines.” Proc. of the 6th International ASRANet Conference, London, UK, July 2-4, 2012, Paper 49.
[5] S. G. L. Babu and A. Srivastava, “Reliability analysis of buried flexible pipe-soil systems,” Journal of Pipeline Systems |Engineering and Practice, ASCE, 1(1), pp. 33-41, 2010.
[6] K. F. Tee, C. Q. Li and M. Mahmoodian, “Prediction of time-variant probability of failure for concrete sewer pipes,” Proc. of the 12th International Conference on Durability of Building Materials and Components, Porto, Portugal, April 12-15, 2011.
[7] Y. Fang, J. Chen and K. F. Tee, “Analysis of structural dynamic reliability based on the probability density evolution method,” Structural Engineering and Mechanics, 45(2), pp. 201-209, 2013.
[8] S. K. Au and J. L. Beck, “Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation,” Journal of Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 16, pp. 263 – 277, 2001.
[9] E. Zio and N. Pedroni, “Estimation of the functional failure probability of a thermal hydraulic passive system by subset simulation”. Dept. of Energy, Polytechnic of Milan, Italy, 2008.
[10] M. Ahammed and R. E. Melchers, “Reliability of pipelines subject to corrosion,” Journal of Transportation Engineering, ASCE, 120(6), pp. 989 – 1002, 1994.
[11] R. Sadiq, B. Rajani and Y. Kleiner, “Probabilistic risk analysis of corrosion associated failures in cast iron water mains,” Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 86(1), p 1-10, 2004.
[12] R. K. Watkins and L. R. Anderson. Structural Mechanics of buried pipes. CRC Press, LLC, Washington, D.C. USA, 2000.
[13] K. F. Tee, L.R. Khan and H.P. Chen, “Probabilistic failure analysis of underground flexible pipes,” Structural Engineering and Mechanics, 47(2), pp. 167-183, 2013.
[14] BS EN 1295:1-1997. Structural design of buried pipelines under various conditions of loading - General requirements. British Standards Institution, United Kingdom, 2010.
[15] Sarplast: Iniziative Industriali, S.P.A. Installation Manual. pp. 19 – 23, Santa Luce, Italy, 2008.
[16] AWWA (American Water Works Association). Buried pipe design, Fiberglass Pipe Design, AWWA Manual M45, pp. 35 – 53, 1999.
[17] Hancor Inc. HDPE Pipe design. Drainage Handbook, Chapter 2. United States, 2009.
[18] W. Mohr. Strain based design of pipelines. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service and Department of Transportation, Research and Special Programs Administration, Project No. 45892GTH, USA, 2003.
[19] L. H. Gabriel. Corrugated polyethylene pipe design manual and installation guide. Plastic Pipe Institute, USA, 2011.
[20] S. K. Au and J. L. Beck, “Subset simulation and its application to seismic risk based on dynamic analysis,” Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 129(8), pp. 901 – 917, 2003.
[21] S. Song, Z. Lu and H. Qiao, “Subset simulation for structural reliability sensitivity analysis,” Journal of reliability engineering and system safety, pp. 658 – 665, Elsevier ltd, 2009.
[22] S. K. Au, J. Ching and J. L. Beck, “Application of subset simulation methods to reliability benchmark problems,” Journal of Structural Safety, 29, pp. 183-193, 2007.
[23] M. Ahammed and R. E. Melchers, “Probabilistic analysis of pipelines subject to combined stresses and corrosion,” Engineering Structure, Vol. 19, No. 12, pp. 988-994, Elsevier science ltd. 1997.
[24] T. Fetz and F. Tonon, “Probability bounds for series systems with variables constrained by sets of probability measures,” International Journal on Reliability and safety, 2(4), pp. 309 – 339, 2008.</p>
<p> </p>
@article{"International Journal of Architectural, Civil and Construction Sciences:56051", author = "Kong Fah Tee and Lutfor Rahman Khan and Hongshuang Li", title = "Reliability Analysis of Underground Pipelines Using Subset Simulation", abstract = "An advanced Monte Carlo simulation method, called Subset Simulation (SS) for the time-dependent reliability prediction for underground pipelines has been presented in this paper. The SS can provide better resolution for low failure probability level with efficient investigating of rare failure events which are commonly encountered in pipeline engineering applications. In SS method, random samples leading to progressive failure are generated efficiently and used for computing probabilistic performance by statistical variables. SS gains its efficiency as small probability event as a product of a sequence of intermediate events with larger conditional probabilities. The efficiency of SS has been demonstrated by numerical studies and attention in this work is devoted to scrutinise the robustness of the SS application in pipe reliability assessment. It is hoped that the development work can promote the use of SS tools for uncertainty propagation in the decision-making process of underground pipelines network reliability prediction.
", keywords = "Underground pipelines, Probability of failure, Reliability and Subset Simulation.", volume = "7", number = "11", pages = "806-7", }
