Trade Policy and Economic Growth of Turkey in Global Economy: New Empirical Evidences
This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or
not trade openness causes economic growth and trade policy changes
are good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy
before and after 1980. We employ Johansen co-integration and
Granger causality tests with error correction modeling based on
vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the
post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated
in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of
long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may
imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra
complementary economic reforms.
[1] J.S.Jr. Nye and D.A. Welch, Küresel Çatışmayı ve İşbirliğini Anlamak,
Çev. Renan Akman, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, 3. Baskı,
İstanbul, 2013, ss.364-367.
[2] J.E. Stiglitz, Eşitsizliğin Bedeli, Bugünün Bölünmüş Toplumu
Geleceğimizi Nasıl Tehlikeye Atıyor?, Çev.Ozan İşler, İletişim Yayınları,
3. Baskı, İstanbul, 2015, ss.118-121.
[3] D. Rodrik, Akıllı Küreselleşme, Çev. Burcu Aksu, Efil Yayınevi,
Ankara, 2011, s.59.
[4] D. Rodrik, “The Limits of Trade Policy Reform in Developing
Countries”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6(1), Winter, 1992,
pp.87-105.
[5] W. Jr. Darity and L.S. Davis, “Growth, Trade and Uneven
Development”, Cambridge Journal of Economics”, 29, 2005, pp.141-
170.
[6] S. Dowrick and J. Golley, “Trade Opennes and Growth: Who
Benefits?”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(1), 2004, pp.38-56.
[7] A.U. Santos-Paulino, “Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance:
Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries”, The World Economy,
28(6), 2005, pp.783-821.
[8] S. Edwards, “Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing
Countries”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31(3), 1993, pp.1358-1393.
[9] S.Y. Saçık, “Büyümenin Bir Kaynağı Olarak Ticari Dışa Açıklık”, SÜ
İİBF Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(17), 2009, ss.525-
548.
[10] S. Girma, M. Henry, and R. Kneller, “Threshold and Interaction Effects
in the Openness-Productivity Growth Relationship: The Role of
Institutions and Natural Barriers”, University of Nottingham GEP
Research Paper Series, 32, 2003.
[11] N. Foster, “Exports, Growth and Threshold Effects in Africa”, Journal
of Development Studies, 42(6), 2005, pp.1056-1074.
[12] D.-H. Kim and S.-C. Lin, “Trade and Growth at Different Stages of
Economic Development”, Journal of Development Studies, 45(8), 2008,
pp.1211-1224.
[13] R. Chang, L. Kaltani and N.V. Loayza, “Openness Can Be Good for
Growth: The Role of Policy Complementarities”, Journal of
Development Economics, 90, 2009, pp.33-49.
[14] P.M. Romer, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of
Political Economy, 94(5), 1986, pp.1002-1037.
[15] R.E. Lucas, “On The Mechanics of Economic Development'', Journal of
Monetary Economics, 22, 1988, pp.25-50.
[16] S. Rebelo, “Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth”, Journal
of Political Economy, 99(3), 1991, pp.500-521.
[17] R.J. Barro, “Goverment Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous
Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), Part 2, 1990, pp.103-125.
[18] P.M. Romer, “Endogenous Technical Change”, Journal of Political
Economy, 98(5), Part 2, 1990, pp.71-102.
[19] G.M. Grossman and E. Helpman, “Quality Ladders in the Growth
Theory”, NBER Working Paper, No.3099, 1989.
[20] P. Aghion and P. Howitt, “A Model of Through Creative Destruction”,
Econometrica, 60(2), 1992, pp.323-351.
[21] G.M. Grossman and E. Helpman, “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and
Growth”, European Economic Review, 35, 1991, pp.517-526.
[22] T. Ghirmay, R. Grabowski and S.C. Sharma, “Exports, Investment,
Efficiency and Economic Growth in LDC: An Empirical Investigation”,
Applied Economics, 33(6), 2001, pp.689-700.
[23] G. Cameron, J. Proudman and S. Redding, “Technological Convergence,
R&D and Productivity Growth”, European Economic Review, 49, 2005,
pp.775-807.
[24] J. Balaguer and M. Cantavella-Jordá, “Structural Change in Exports and
Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Spain”,
Applied Economics, 36(5), 2004, pp.473-477.
[25] A. Dar and S. Amirkhalkhali, “On the İmpact of Trade Openness on
Growth: Further Evidence from OECD Countries”, Applied Economics,
35(16), 2003, pp.1761-1766.
[26] Y.-C. Chuang, “The trade-induced learning effect on growth: crosscountry
evidence”, Journal of Development Studıes, 39(2), 2002,
pp.137-154.
[27] J.A. Cotsomitis, et al., “Are There Technological Gains from the
Liberalization of Exchange?”, Applied Economics, 34(8), 2002, pp.1033-
1040.
[28] J.-W. Lee, “Capital Goods Imports and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of
Development Economics, 48(1), 1995, pp.91-110.
[29] N. Ahmed, “Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth of
Manufacturing İndustries in Bangladesh: An Empirical investigation”,
Applied Economics, 35(3), 2003, pp.305-314.
[30] J. Crespo, C. Martin and F.J. Velázquez, “The Role of International
Technology Spillovers in the Economic Growth of the OECD
Countries”, Global Economy Journal, 4(2), Article.3, 2004, pp.1-18.
[31] R. Karluk, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Beta Basım Yayım, Yedinci Baskı,
Kasım, Istanbul, 2002, s.241.
[32] E. Yeldan, Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi Bölüşüm, Birikim
ve Büyüme, 6. Baskı, İletişim Yayınları, İstanbul, 2002, s.45.
[33] A.S. Söylemez, “Küreselleşme, Yapısal Dönüşüm ve Büyüme: Bilgi
Göstergeleri Işığında Türkiye Açısından bir Değerlendirme”, Ekonomik
Yaklaşım, 15(51), 2004, ss.32-64.
[34] E. Türkcan, “Teknolojik Düzeyi Etkileyen Politikalar ve Türkiye”,
Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 2(6), 1991, ss.41-71.
[35] S. Johansen, “Statistical analysis of cointegrated vectors” Journal of
Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988, pp.131–154.
[36] S. Johansen and K. Juselius, “Maximum likelihood estimation and
inference on cointegration: With an application to demand for Money”,
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 1990, pp.169–210.
[37] R. Harris and R. Sollis, Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, 2003, pp.109-115.
[38] C.A. Sims, “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48(1), 1980,
pp.1-48.
[39] C.A. Sims, J.H. Stock and M.W. Watson, “Inference in Linear Time
Series Models with Some Unit Roots”, Econometrica, 58(1), 1990,
pp.113-144.
[40] C.W.J. Granger, “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of
Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 1988, pp.199-211.
[41] H.Y. Bleikh and W.L. Young, Time Series Analysis and Adjustment,
Measuring, Modelling and Forecasting for Business and Economics,
Ashgate Publishing, 2014.
[42] P.T. Brandt and J.T. Williams, “Multiple Time Series Models”, Sage,
University Papers Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social
Sciences, 148, 2007.
[43] A. Şengönül and İ. Tuncer, “Dış Ticaret Politikaları ve Uzun Dönem
Büyüme”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 52-53(15), 2004, ss.161-184.
[1] J.S.Jr. Nye and D.A. Welch, Küresel Çatışmayı ve İşbirliğini Anlamak,
Çev. Renan Akman, Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları, 3. Baskı,
İstanbul, 2013, ss.364-367.
[2] J.E. Stiglitz, Eşitsizliğin Bedeli, Bugünün Bölünmüş Toplumu
Geleceğimizi Nasıl Tehlikeye Atıyor?, Çev.Ozan İşler, İletişim Yayınları,
3. Baskı, İstanbul, 2015, ss.118-121.
[3] D. Rodrik, Akıllı Küreselleşme, Çev. Burcu Aksu, Efil Yayınevi,
Ankara, 2011, s.59.
[4] D. Rodrik, “The Limits of Trade Policy Reform in Developing
Countries”, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 6(1), Winter, 1992,
pp.87-105.
[5] W. Jr. Darity and L.S. Davis, “Growth, Trade and Uneven
Development”, Cambridge Journal of Economics”, 29, 2005, pp.141-
170.
[6] S. Dowrick and J. Golley, “Trade Opennes and Growth: Who
Benefits?”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 20(1), 2004, pp.38-56.
[7] A.U. Santos-Paulino, “Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance:
Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries”, The World Economy,
28(6), 2005, pp.783-821.
[8] S. Edwards, “Trade Liberalization and Growth in Developing
Countries”, Journal of Economic Literature, 31(3), 1993, pp.1358-1393.
[9] S.Y. Saçık, “Büyümenin Bir Kaynağı Olarak Ticari Dışa Açıklık”, SÜ
İİBF Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 11(17), 2009, ss.525-
548.
[10] S. Girma, M. Henry, and R. Kneller, “Threshold and Interaction Effects
in the Openness-Productivity Growth Relationship: The Role of
Institutions and Natural Barriers”, University of Nottingham GEP
Research Paper Series, 32, 2003.
[11] N. Foster, “Exports, Growth and Threshold Effects in Africa”, Journal
of Development Studies, 42(6), 2005, pp.1056-1074.
[12] D.-H. Kim and S.-C. Lin, “Trade and Growth at Different Stages of
Economic Development”, Journal of Development Studies, 45(8), 2008,
pp.1211-1224.
[13] R. Chang, L. Kaltani and N.V. Loayza, “Openness Can Be Good for
Growth: The Role of Policy Complementarities”, Journal of
Development Economics, 90, 2009, pp.33-49.
[14] P.M. Romer, “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of
Political Economy, 94(5), 1986, pp.1002-1037.
[15] R.E. Lucas, “On The Mechanics of Economic Development'', Journal of
Monetary Economics, 22, 1988, pp.25-50.
[16] S. Rebelo, “Long Run Policy Analysis and Long Run Growth”, Journal
of Political Economy, 99(3), 1991, pp.500-521.
[17] R.J. Barro, “Goverment Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous
Growth”, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), Part 2, 1990, pp.103-125.
[18] P.M. Romer, “Endogenous Technical Change”, Journal of Political
Economy, 98(5), Part 2, 1990, pp.71-102.
[19] G.M. Grossman and E. Helpman, “Quality Ladders in the Growth
Theory”, NBER Working Paper, No.3099, 1989.
[20] P. Aghion and P. Howitt, “A Model of Through Creative Destruction”,
Econometrica, 60(2), 1992, pp.323-351.
[21] G.M. Grossman and E. Helpman, “Trade, Knowledge Spillovers, and
Growth”, European Economic Review, 35, 1991, pp.517-526.
[22] T. Ghirmay, R. Grabowski and S.C. Sharma, “Exports, Investment,
Efficiency and Economic Growth in LDC: An Empirical Investigation”,
Applied Economics, 33(6), 2001, pp.689-700.
[23] G. Cameron, J. Proudman and S. Redding, “Technological Convergence,
R&D and Productivity Growth”, European Economic Review, 49, 2005,
pp.775-807.
[24] J. Balaguer and M. Cantavella-Jordá, “Structural Change in Exports and
Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis for Spain”,
Applied Economics, 36(5), 2004, pp.473-477.
[25] A. Dar and S. Amirkhalkhali, “On the İmpact of Trade Openness on
Growth: Further Evidence from OECD Countries”, Applied Economics,
35(16), 2003, pp.1761-1766.
[26] Y.-C. Chuang, “The trade-induced learning effect on growth: crosscountry
evidence”, Journal of Development Studıes, 39(2), 2002,
pp.137-154.
[27] J.A. Cotsomitis, et al., “Are There Technological Gains from the
Liberalization of Exchange?”, Applied Economics, 34(8), 2002, pp.1033-
1040.
[28] J.-W. Lee, “Capital Goods Imports and Long-Run Growth”, Journal of
Development Economics, 48(1), 1995, pp.91-110.
[29] N. Ahmed, “Trade Liberalization and Endogenous Growth of
Manufacturing İndustries in Bangladesh: An Empirical investigation”,
Applied Economics, 35(3), 2003, pp.305-314.
[30] J. Crespo, C. Martin and F.J. Velázquez, “The Role of International
Technology Spillovers in the Economic Growth of the OECD
Countries”, Global Economy Journal, 4(2), Article.3, 2004, pp.1-18.
[31] R. Karluk, Türkiye Ekonomisi, Beta Basım Yayım, Yedinci Baskı,
Kasım, Istanbul, 2002, s.241.
[32] E. Yeldan, Küreselleşme Sürecinde Türkiye Ekonomisi Bölüşüm, Birikim
ve Büyüme, 6. Baskı, İletişim Yayınları, İstanbul, 2002, s.45.
[33] A.S. Söylemez, “Küreselleşme, Yapısal Dönüşüm ve Büyüme: Bilgi
Göstergeleri Işığında Türkiye Açısından bir Değerlendirme”, Ekonomik
Yaklaşım, 15(51), 2004, ss.32-64.
[34] E. Türkcan, “Teknolojik Düzeyi Etkileyen Politikalar ve Türkiye”,
Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 2(6), 1991, ss.41-71.
[35] S. Johansen, “Statistical analysis of cointegrated vectors” Journal of
Economic Dynamics and Control, 12, 1988, pp.131–154.
[36] S. Johansen and K. Juselius, “Maximum likelihood estimation and
inference on cointegration: With an application to demand for Money”,
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52, 1990, pp.169–210.
[37] R. Harris and R. Sollis, Applied Time Series Modelling and Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, 2003, pp.109-115.
[38] C.A. Sims, “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48(1), 1980,
pp.1-48.
[39] C.A. Sims, J.H. Stock and M.W. Watson, “Inference in Linear Time
Series Models with Some Unit Roots”, Econometrica, 58(1), 1990,
pp.113-144.
[40] C.W.J. Granger, “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of
Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39, 1988, pp.199-211.
[41] H.Y. Bleikh and W.L. Young, Time Series Analysis and Adjustment,
Measuring, Modelling and Forecasting for Business and Economics,
Ashgate Publishing, 2014.
[42] P.T. Brandt and J.T. Williams, “Multiple Time Series Models”, Sage,
University Papers Series: Quantitative Applications in the Social
Sciences, 148, 2007.
[43] A. Şengönül and İ. Tuncer, “Dış Ticaret Politikaları ve Uzun Dönem
Büyüme”, Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 52-53(15), 2004, ss.161-184.
@article{"International Journal of Business, Human and Social Sciences:71159", author = "Pınar Yardımcı", title = "Trade Policy and Economic Growth of Turkey in Global Economy: New Empirical Evidences", abstract = "This paper tries to answer to the questions whether or
not trade openness causes economic growth and trade policy changes
are good for Turkey as a developing country in global economy
before and after 1980. We employ Johansen co-integration and
Granger causality tests with error correction modeling based on
vector autoregressive. Using WDI data from the pre-1980 and the
post-1980, we find that trade openness and economic growth are cointegrated
in the second term only. Also the results suggest a lack of
long-run causality between our two variables. These findings may
imply that trade policy of Turkey should concentrate more on extra
complementary economic reforms.", keywords = "Globalization, Trade Policy, Economic Growth,
Openness, Co-integration, Turkey.", volume = "9", number = "10", pages = "3481-6", }
