Italian Central Guarantee Fund: An Analysis of the Guaranteed SMEs’ Default Risk
Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions.
[1] ADB-OECD (2014). “Study on Enhancing Financial Accessibility for SMEs. Lessons from recent crises”. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/cfe/smes/adb-oecd-study-enhancing-financial-accessibility-smes.pdf. Accessed on 01/02/2019.
[2] AECM (2010). “Guarantees and the Recovery: the impact of anti-crisis guarantee measures. Secretariat General AECM Brussels (Belgium)”. Available at: https://aecm.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/report-on-performance-of-anti-crisis-guarantee-measures1.pdf. Accessed on 1/01/02/2019
[3] Altman E.I. (1968). “Financial Ratios. Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, The Journal of Finance 23/4, pp. 589-609.
[4] Altman E.I. (1983). Corporate Financial Distress. Wiley Interscience. New York.
[5] Altman E.I., Hartzell J., Peck M. (1995). Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds: A Scoring System. Salomon Brothers Inc. New York, and in Levich, R. and Mei, J.P. “The Future of Emerging Market Flaws”. Kluwer.
[6] Altman E.I. (2002). Revisiting Credit Scoring Models in a Basel 2 Environment. In Ong M. “Credit Rating: Methodologies. Rationale and Default Risk”. London Risk Book.
[7] Altman, E.I. and Hotchkiss, E. (2006) Corporate Financial Distress & Bankruptcy. J. Wiley & Sons.
[8] Altman E.I., Rijken H. (2010). “Toward a Bottom-Up Approach to Assessing Sovereign Default Risk”, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 23/1, pp. 20-31.
[9] Altman E.I., Danovi A., Falini A. (2013). “Z-Score Models’ Application to Italian Companies Subject to Extraordinary Administration”, Journal of Applied Finance 23/1, pp. 128-137.
[10] Appetiti S., 1984, “L’Utilizzo dell’Analisi Discriminatoria per la Previsione delle Insolvenze: Ipotesi e Test per un’Analisi Dinamica”, Servizio Studi della Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione, Roma, Italy.
[11] Argenti J. (1976), Corporate Collapse: The Causes and Symptoms, New York, New York, McGraw-Hill.
[12] Arping S., Loranth G., Morrison A.D. (2010), “Public initiatives to support entrepreneurs: Credit guarantees versus co-funding”, Journal of Financial Stability 6/1, pp. 26-35.
[13] Asdrubali P., Signore S. (2015), The Economic Impact of EU Guarantees on Credit to SMEs. Evidence from CESEE Countries, EIF Research & Market Analysis, Working Paper n. 29, July.
[14] Aziz A., Emanuel D.C., Lawson G.H. (1988), “Bankruptcy Prediction - An Investigation of Cash Flow Based Models”, Journal of Management Studies 25/5, pp. 419-437.
[15] Balwind J., Glezen G. (1992), “Bankruptcy Prediction Using Quarterly Financial Statement Data,” Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 3/7, pp. 269-285.
[16] Banca d’Italia (2017), “L’economia delle regioni italiane nel 2016”, Rapporto annuale N. 22.
[17] Banca del Mezzogiorno – MedioCredito Centrale (2018), “Specifiche tecniche per il calcolo della probabilità di inadempimento ai sensi del nuovo modello di valutazione del Fondo”.
[18] Beaver W.H. (1966), “Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies”, Journal of Accounting Research 5, pp. 71-111.
[19] Beck T., Deminguç-Kunt A., Laeven L., Maksimovic V. (2006), “The determinants of financing obstacles”, Journal of International Money and Finance 25/6, pp. 932-952.
[20] Beck T., Deminguç-Kunt A. (2006), “Small and Medium-Size Enterprises: Access to Finance as a Growth Contraint”, Journal of Banking and Finance 30/11, pp. 2931-2943.
[21] Beck T., Klapper, L., Mendoza, J. (2008), “The typology of partial credit guarantee funds around the world”. Policy research working paper n. 4771, The World Bank, available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/6387/ WPS4771.pdf?sequence=1.
[22] Bellovary J., Giacomino D., Akers M. (2007), “A Review of Bankruptcy Prediction Studies: 1930 to Present,” Journal of Financial Education 33, pp. 1-42.
[23] Berger A.N., Udell G.F. (2006), “A More Complete Conceptual Framework for SME Finance”. Journal of Banking and Finance 30/11, pp. 2945-2966.
[24] Blum M. (1974). “Failing Company Discriminant Analysis”, Journal of Accounting Research 12/1, pp. 1-25.
[25] Boot A.W.A., Thakor A.V. (1994), “Moral hazard and secured lending in an infinitely repeated credit market game”, International Economic Review 35, pp. 899-917.
[26] Bubb R., Kaufman A. (2009), “Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from a lender cut off rule”, Public policy discussion papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, N. 09.5. Available at: https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/public-policy-discussion-paper/2009/securitization-and-moral-hazard-evidence-from-a-lender-cutoff-rule.aspx. Accessed on 01/02/2019.
[27] Cardone-Riportella C., Trujillo-Ponce A., Briozzo, A. (2013), “Analyzing the Role of Mutual Guarantee Societies on Bank Capital Requirements for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises”, Journal of Economic Policy Reform 16/2, pp. 142-159.
[28] CGF - Italian Fondo di garanzia per le PMI (2015), “Disposizioni operative”.
[29] Deakin E.B. (1972). “A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure”. in Journal of Accounting Research 10/1. pp. 167-179.
[30] Deakin E.B. (1977). “Business Failure Prediction: An Empirical Analysis”. In Financial Crisis, Institutions and Markets in a Fragile Environment, edited by Altman E.I. and Sametz A.W. New York. John Wiley and Sons, pp. 72–98.
[31] De Vincentiis P. (2008), The guarantee systems and the SMEs access to credit, Bancaria, Rome.
[32] Edmister R.O. (1972). “An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 7/2, pp. 1477-1493.
[33] Elam R. (1975), “The Effect of Lease Data on the Predictive Ability of Financial Ratios”. in The Accounting Review, 50/1. pp. 25-43.
[34] Erzegovesi L. (2009), “Verso un nuovo modello di equilibrio gestionale dei consorzi fidi”, in Comana M. (by), Banca, Credito e Rischi. Saggi in onore di Tancredi Bianchi, Vol. 2, Bancaria Editrice, Roma, pp. 115-132.
[35] European Commission (2005), “Guarantees and Mutual Guarantees. Report to the Commission by an Independent Expert Group”, January.
[36] European Central Bank (2018), “Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area”. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/accesstofinancesofenterprises/pdf/ecb.accesstofinancesmallmediumsizedenterprises201806.en.pdf?f39a5afa92e40c051dfb5dde764306ba. Accessed on 01/02/2019.
[37] FitzPatrick P. J. (1932), “A Comparison of Ratios of Successful Industrial Enterprises with Those of Failed Companies”. In The Certified Public Accountant. October. pp. 598-605. November. pp. 656-662. December. pp. 727-731.
[38] Flagg J. Giroux G. Wiggins C. (1991). “Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy Using Failing Firms”. in Review of Financial Economics 1/4, pp. 67-78.
[39] Forestieri G. (1986), La previsione delle insolvenze aziendali: profili teorici e analisi empiriche, Milano, Italy, Giuffrè Editore.
[40] Gai L., Rossi F., Catelani E. (2010), “Public policies and venture capital in supporting SMEs: an economic comparison of available instruments”, Strategic Change 19/7-8, pp. 293-302.
[41] Gai L., Ielasi F. (2014), “Operational drivers affecting credit risk of mutual guarantee institutions”, The Journal of Risk Finance 15/3, pp. 275-293.
[42] Hartman-Glaser B., Piskorski T., Tchistyi, A. (2012), “Optimal securitizazion with moral hazard”, Journal of Financial Economics 104/1, pp. 186-202.
[43] Hillegeist S., Cram D., Keating E., Lundstedt K. (2004), “Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy,” Review of Accounting Studies 9/1, pp. 5-34.
[44] Holton S., McCann F., Prendergast K., Purdue D. (2013), “ Policy measures to improve access to credit for SMEs: a survey”, Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, , n. 04, October, pp. 91-110. Documents/Quarterly%20Bulletin%20Q4%202013.pdf.
[45] Honohan P. (2008), “Partial credit guarantees: principles and practice”, Journal of Financial Stability 6/1, pp. 1-9.
[46] Jemenez G., Saurina J. (2004), “Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 28/9, pp. 2192-2212.
[47] Johnson C.G. (1970), “Ratio Analysis and the Prediction of Firm Failure”. The Journal of Finance 25/5. pp 1166-1168.
[48] Kern M., Rudolph B. (2001), “Comparative Analysis of Alternative Credit Risk Models: An Application on German Middle Market Loan Portfolios,” Center for Financial Studies Working Paper 2001/03.
[49] KPMG (2012), “Credit access guarantees: a public asset between the State and the market. International survey on guarantee market players”, KPMG Advisory, available at: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/06/KPMG-Credit-access-guarantees-public-asset-between-State-Market.pdf. Accessed on 01/02/2019
[50] Lawrence E.C., Bear R.M. (1986), “Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction and the Impact of Leases”. in Journal of Business, Finance and Accounting 13/4. pp. 571-585.
[51] Lei H., Xi, G. (2005), “Different Guarantee Institutions and Their Effects on the Financing of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)”, Economic Research Journal 9, pp. 006.
[52] Leone P., Vento G.A. (2012), Credit guarantee institutions and SME finance, Palgrave Macmillan London.
[53] Levitsky J. (1997), “Credit guarantee schemes for SMEs – an international review”, Small Enterprise Development 8/2, pp. 4-17.
[54] Libby R. (1995). “Accounting Ratios and the Prediction of Failure: Some Behavioral Evidence” Journal of Accounting Research 13/1, pp. 150-161.
[55] Llisteri J. (1997), “Credit guarantee schemes: Preliminary conclusions”, The Financier 1-2, pp. 5-11.
[56] Meyer R.L., Nagarajan G. (1996) “Evaluating credit guarantee programs in developing countries”, Ohio State University. Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, ESO (Economics and Sociology Occasional Paper), No. 2322, available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1811/66680.
[57] OECD (2013), “Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs 2013: an OECD scoreboard. Final paper” DOI: 10.1787/fin_sme_ent-2013-en.
[58] Ohlson J. (1980), “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research 18/1, pp. 109-131.
[59] Panizzolo D. (2014), Il modello di scoring del Fondo Centrale di Garanzia: un’analisi d’impatto, DEM Discussione Paper, University of Trento.
[60] Ramser J.R., Foster L.O. (1931), “A Demonstration of Ratio Analysis”, Bureau of Business Research Bulletin N. 40.
[61] Ridings A.L., Haines, G. Jr. (2001), “Loan Guarantees: cost of default and benefits to small firms”, Journal of Business Venturing 16/6, pp. 595-612.
[62] Riding A., Madill J., Haines, G. Jr. (2007), “Incrementality of SME loan guarantees”, Small Business Economics 29/1-2, pp. 47-61.
[63] Shumway T. (2002), “Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model,” Journal of Business 74/1, pp. 101-124.
[64] Smith F.R., Winakor A.H. (1935), “Changes in Financial Structure of Unsuccessful Corporations,” Bureau of Business Research Bulletin, University of Illinois Press.
[65] Taffler R.J. (1982), “Forecasting Company Failure in the UK Using Discriminant Analysis and Financial Ratio Data,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 145/3, pp. 342-358.
[66] Tamari M. (1966), “Financial Ratios as a Means of Forecasting Bankruptcy,” Management International Review 6/ 4, pp. 15-21.
[67] Vogel R., Adams D. (1997), “Costs and benefits of loan guarantee programs”, The Financier 4, pp. 22-29.
[68] Wilcox J.W. (1976), “The Gambler’s Ruin Approach to Business Risk,” Sloan Management Review 12/1, pp.33-46.
[69] Zecchini S., Ventura M. (2009), “The impact of public guarantees on credit to SMEs”, Small Business Economics 32/2, pp. 191-206.
[1] ADB-OECD (2014). “Study on Enhancing Financial Accessibility for SMEs. Lessons from recent crises”. Available at: https://www.oecd.org/cfe/smes/adb-oecd-study-enhancing-financial-accessibility-smes.pdf. Accessed on 01/02/2019.
[2] AECM (2010). “Guarantees and the Recovery: the impact of anti-crisis guarantee measures. Secretariat General AECM Brussels (Belgium)”. Available at: https://aecm.eu/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/report-on-performance-of-anti-crisis-guarantee-measures1.pdf. Accessed on 1/01/02/2019
[3] Altman E.I. (1968). “Financial Ratios. Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, The Journal of Finance 23/4, pp. 589-609.
[4] Altman E.I. (1983). Corporate Financial Distress. Wiley Interscience. New York.
[5] Altman E.I., Hartzell J., Peck M. (1995). Emerging Markets Corporate Bonds: A Scoring System. Salomon Brothers Inc. New York, and in Levich, R. and Mei, J.P. “The Future of Emerging Market Flaws”. Kluwer.
[6] Altman E.I. (2002). Revisiting Credit Scoring Models in a Basel 2 Environment. In Ong M. “Credit Rating: Methodologies. Rationale and Default Risk”. London Risk Book.
[7] Altman, E.I. and Hotchkiss, E. (2006) Corporate Financial Distress & Bankruptcy. J. Wiley & Sons.
[8] Altman E.I., Rijken H. (2010). “Toward a Bottom-Up Approach to Assessing Sovereign Default Risk”, Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 23/1, pp. 20-31.
[9] Altman E.I., Danovi A., Falini A. (2013). “Z-Score Models’ Application to Italian Companies Subject to Extraordinary Administration”, Journal of Applied Finance 23/1, pp. 128-137.
[10] Appetiti S., 1984, “L’Utilizzo dell’Analisi Discriminatoria per la Previsione delle Insolvenze: Ipotesi e Test per un’Analisi Dinamica”, Servizio Studi della Banca d’Italia, Temi di Discussione, Roma, Italy.
[11] Argenti J. (1976), Corporate Collapse: The Causes and Symptoms, New York, New York, McGraw-Hill.
[12] Arping S., Loranth G., Morrison A.D. (2010), “Public initiatives to support entrepreneurs: Credit guarantees versus co-funding”, Journal of Financial Stability 6/1, pp. 26-35.
[13] Asdrubali P., Signore S. (2015), The Economic Impact of EU Guarantees on Credit to SMEs. Evidence from CESEE Countries, EIF Research & Market Analysis, Working Paper n. 29, July.
[14] Aziz A., Emanuel D.C., Lawson G.H. (1988), “Bankruptcy Prediction - An Investigation of Cash Flow Based Models”, Journal of Management Studies 25/5, pp. 419-437.
[15] Balwind J., Glezen G. (1992), “Bankruptcy Prediction Using Quarterly Financial Statement Data,” Journal of Accounting, Auditing & Finance 3/7, pp. 269-285.
[16] Banca d’Italia (2017), “L’economia delle regioni italiane nel 2016”, Rapporto annuale N. 22.
[17] Banca del Mezzogiorno – MedioCredito Centrale (2018), “Specifiche tecniche per il calcolo della probabilità di inadempimento ai sensi del nuovo modello di valutazione del Fondo”.
[18] Beaver W.H. (1966), “Financial Ratios as Predictors of Failure. Empirical Research in Accounting: Selected Studies”, Journal of Accounting Research 5, pp. 71-111.
[19] Beck T., Deminguç-Kunt A., Laeven L., Maksimovic V. (2006), “The determinants of financing obstacles”, Journal of International Money and Finance 25/6, pp. 932-952.
[20] Beck T., Deminguç-Kunt A. (2006), “Small and Medium-Size Enterprises: Access to Finance as a Growth Contraint”, Journal of Banking and Finance 30/11, pp. 2931-2943.
[21] Beck T., Klapper, L., Mendoza, J. (2008), “The typology of partial credit guarantee funds around the world”. Policy research working paper n. 4771, The World Bank, available at: https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/6387/ WPS4771.pdf?sequence=1.
[22] Bellovary J., Giacomino D., Akers M. (2007), “A Review of Bankruptcy Prediction Studies: 1930 to Present,” Journal of Financial Education 33, pp. 1-42.
[23] Berger A.N., Udell G.F. (2006), “A More Complete Conceptual Framework for SME Finance”. Journal of Banking and Finance 30/11, pp. 2945-2966.
[24] Blum M. (1974). “Failing Company Discriminant Analysis”, Journal of Accounting Research 12/1, pp. 1-25.
[25] Boot A.W.A., Thakor A.V. (1994), “Moral hazard and secured lending in an infinitely repeated credit market game”, International Economic Review 35, pp. 899-917.
[26] Bubb R., Kaufman A. (2009), “Securitization and moral hazard: evidence from a lender cut off rule”, Public policy discussion papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, N. 09.5. Available at: https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/public-policy-discussion-paper/2009/securitization-and-moral-hazard-evidence-from-a-lender-cutoff-rule.aspx. Accessed on 01/02/2019.
[27] Cardone-Riportella C., Trujillo-Ponce A., Briozzo, A. (2013), “Analyzing the Role of Mutual Guarantee Societies on Bank Capital Requirements for Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises”, Journal of Economic Policy Reform 16/2, pp. 142-159.
[28] CGF - Italian Fondo di garanzia per le PMI (2015), “Disposizioni operative”.
[29] Deakin E.B. (1972). “A Discriminant Analysis of Predictors of Business Failure”. in Journal of Accounting Research 10/1. pp. 167-179.
[30] Deakin E.B. (1977). “Business Failure Prediction: An Empirical Analysis”. In Financial Crisis, Institutions and Markets in a Fragile Environment, edited by Altman E.I. and Sametz A.W. New York. John Wiley and Sons, pp. 72–98.
[31] De Vincentiis P. (2008), The guarantee systems and the SMEs access to credit, Bancaria, Rome.
[32] Edmister R.O. (1972). “An Empirical Test of Financial Ratio Analysis for Small Business Failure Prediction”, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 7/2, pp. 1477-1493.
[33] Elam R. (1975), “The Effect of Lease Data on the Predictive Ability of Financial Ratios”. in The Accounting Review, 50/1. pp. 25-43.
[34] Erzegovesi L. (2009), “Verso un nuovo modello di equilibrio gestionale dei consorzi fidi”, in Comana M. (by), Banca, Credito e Rischi. Saggi in onore di Tancredi Bianchi, Vol. 2, Bancaria Editrice, Roma, pp. 115-132.
[35] European Commission (2005), “Guarantees and Mutual Guarantees. Report to the Commission by an Independent Expert Group”, January.
[36] European Central Bank (2018), “Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises in the euro area”. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/accesstofinancesofenterprises/pdf/ecb.accesstofinancesmallmediumsizedenterprises201806.en.pdf?f39a5afa92e40c051dfb5dde764306ba. Accessed on 01/02/2019.
[37] FitzPatrick P. J. (1932), “A Comparison of Ratios of Successful Industrial Enterprises with Those of Failed Companies”. In The Certified Public Accountant. October. pp. 598-605. November. pp. 656-662. December. pp. 727-731.
[38] Flagg J. Giroux G. Wiggins C. (1991). “Predicting Corporate Bankruptcy Using Failing Firms”. in Review of Financial Economics 1/4, pp. 67-78.
[39] Forestieri G. (1986), La previsione delle insolvenze aziendali: profili teorici e analisi empiriche, Milano, Italy, Giuffrè Editore.
[40] Gai L., Rossi F., Catelani E. (2010), “Public policies and venture capital in supporting SMEs: an economic comparison of available instruments”, Strategic Change 19/7-8, pp. 293-302.
[41] Gai L., Ielasi F. (2014), “Operational drivers affecting credit risk of mutual guarantee institutions”, The Journal of Risk Finance 15/3, pp. 275-293.
[42] Hartman-Glaser B., Piskorski T., Tchistyi, A. (2012), “Optimal securitizazion with moral hazard”, Journal of Financial Economics 104/1, pp. 186-202.
[43] Hillegeist S., Cram D., Keating E., Lundstedt K. (2004), “Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy,” Review of Accounting Studies 9/1, pp. 5-34.
[44] Holton S., McCann F., Prendergast K., Purdue D. (2013), “ Policy measures to improve access to credit for SMEs: a survey”, Quarterly Bulletin Articles, Central Bank of Ireland, , n. 04, October, pp. 91-110. Documents/Quarterly%20Bulletin%20Q4%202013.pdf.
[45] Honohan P. (2008), “Partial credit guarantees: principles and practice”, Journal of Financial Stability 6/1, pp. 1-9.
[46] Jemenez G., Saurina J. (2004), “Collateral, type of lender and relationship banking as determinants of credit risk”, Journal of Banking and Finance, 28/9, pp. 2192-2212.
[47] Johnson C.G. (1970), “Ratio Analysis and the Prediction of Firm Failure”. The Journal of Finance 25/5. pp 1166-1168.
[48] Kern M., Rudolph B. (2001), “Comparative Analysis of Alternative Credit Risk Models: An Application on German Middle Market Loan Portfolios,” Center for Financial Studies Working Paper 2001/03.
[49] KPMG (2012), “Credit access guarantees: a public asset between the State and the market. International survey on guarantee market players”, KPMG Advisory, available at: https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/pdf/2013/06/KPMG-Credit-access-guarantees-public-asset-between-State-Market.pdf. Accessed on 01/02/2019
[50] Lawrence E.C., Bear R.M. (1986), “Corporate Bankruptcy Prediction and the Impact of Leases”. in Journal of Business, Finance and Accounting 13/4. pp. 571-585.
[51] Lei H., Xi, G. (2005), “Different Guarantee Institutions and Their Effects on the Financing of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs)”, Economic Research Journal 9, pp. 006.
[52] Leone P., Vento G.A. (2012), Credit guarantee institutions and SME finance, Palgrave Macmillan London.
[53] Levitsky J. (1997), “Credit guarantee schemes for SMEs – an international review”, Small Enterprise Development 8/2, pp. 4-17.
[54] Libby R. (1995). “Accounting Ratios and the Prediction of Failure: Some Behavioral Evidence” Journal of Accounting Research 13/1, pp. 150-161.
[55] Llisteri J. (1997), “Credit guarantee schemes: Preliminary conclusions”, The Financier 1-2, pp. 5-11.
[56] Meyer R.L., Nagarajan G. (1996) “Evaluating credit guarantee programs in developing countries”, Ohio State University. Department of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, ESO (Economics and Sociology Occasional Paper), No. 2322, available at: http://hdl.handle.net/1811/66680.
[57] OECD (2013), “Financing SMEs and Entrepreneurs 2013: an OECD scoreboard. Final paper” DOI: 10.1787/fin_sme_ent-2013-en.
[58] Ohlson J. (1980), “Financial Ratios and the Probabilistic Prediction of Bankruptcy”, Journal of Accounting Research 18/1, pp. 109-131.
[59] Panizzolo D. (2014), Il modello di scoring del Fondo Centrale di Garanzia: un’analisi d’impatto, DEM Discussione Paper, University of Trento.
[60] Ramser J.R., Foster L.O. (1931), “A Demonstration of Ratio Analysis”, Bureau of Business Research Bulletin N. 40.
[61] Ridings A.L., Haines, G. Jr. (2001), “Loan Guarantees: cost of default and benefits to small firms”, Journal of Business Venturing 16/6, pp. 595-612.
[62] Riding A., Madill J., Haines, G. Jr. (2007), “Incrementality of SME loan guarantees”, Small Business Economics 29/1-2, pp. 47-61.
[63] Shumway T. (2002), “Forecasting Bankruptcy More Accurately: A Simple Hazard Model,” Journal of Business 74/1, pp. 101-124.
[64] Smith F.R., Winakor A.H. (1935), “Changes in Financial Structure of Unsuccessful Corporations,” Bureau of Business Research Bulletin, University of Illinois Press.
[65] Taffler R.J. (1982), “Forecasting Company Failure in the UK Using Discriminant Analysis and Financial Ratio Data,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 145/3, pp. 342-358.
[66] Tamari M. (1966), “Financial Ratios as a Means of Forecasting Bankruptcy,” Management International Review 6/ 4, pp. 15-21.
[67] Vogel R., Adams D. (1997), “Costs and benefits of loan guarantee programs”, The Financier 4, pp. 22-29.
[68] Wilcox J.W. (1976), “The Gambler’s Ruin Approach to Business Risk,” Sloan Management Review 12/1, pp.33-46.
[69] Zecchini S., Ventura M. (2009), “The impact of public guarantees on credit to SMEs”, Small Business Economics 32/2, pp. 191-206.
@article{"International Journal of Business, Human and Social Sciences:78693", author = "M. C. Arcuri and L. Gai and F. Ielasi", title = "Italian Central Guarantee Fund: An Analysis of the Guaranteed SMEs’ Default Risk", abstract = "Italian Central Guarantee Fund (CGF) has the purpose to facilitate Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ access to credit. The aim of the paper is to study the evaluation method adopted by the CGF with regard to SMEs requiring its intervention. This is even more important in the light of the recent CGF reform. We analyse an initial sample of more than 500.000 guarantees from 2012 to 2018. We distinguish between a counter-guarantee delivered to a mutual guarantee institution and a guarantee directly delivered to a bank. We investigate the impact of variables related to the operations and the SMEs on Altman Z’’-score and the score consistent with CGF methodology. We verify that the type of intervention affects the scores and the initial condition changes with the new assessment criterions.
", keywords = "Banks, default risk, Italian Guarantee Fund, mutual guarantee institutions.", volume = "13", number = "4", pages = "524-9", }
