Designing an Agent-Based Model of SMEs to Assess Flood Response Strategies and Resilience
In the UK, flooding is responsible for significant
losses to the economy due to the impact on businesses, the vast
majority of which are Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).
Businesses of this nature tend to lack formal plans to aid their
response to and recovery from disruptive events such as flooding.
This paper reports on work on how an agent-based model (ABM) is
being developed based on interview data gathered from SMEs at-risk
of flooding and/or have direct experience of flooding. The ABM will
enable simulations to be performed allowing investigations of
different response strategies which SMEs may employ to lessen the
impact of flooding, thus strengthening their resilience.
[1] Department of Business Innovation and Skills, "Business Population
Estimates for the UK and Regions 2012", 2012.
[2] Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Environment
Agency, "The cost of the summer 2007 floods in England", 2010.
[3] G. Coates, G.I. Hawe, M. McGuinness, N.G. Wright, D. Guan, T.
Harries and L. McEwen, "A framework for organisational operational
response and strategic decision making for long term flood preparedness
in urban areas", 3rd International Conference on Disaster Management,
pp. 89-98, July 2013.
[4] P. Woodman, Business Continuity Management. London: Chartered
Management Institute, 2008.
[5] R. Whittle, W. Medd, H. Deeming, E. Kashefi, M. Mort, C. Twigger
Ross, G. Walker and N. Watson, "After the Rain - learning the lessons
from flood recovery in Hull", Final project report on ‘Flood,
vulnerability and urban resilience: a real-time study of local recovery
following the floods of June 2007 in Hull’. Lancaster University, UK,
2010.
[6] EKOS Consulting (UK) Ltd., Evaluation of Yorkshire forward’s flood
response. Sheffield: EKOS Consulting (UK) Ltd, 2008.
[7] D. Molinari and J. Handmer, "A behavioural model for quantifying
flood warning effectiveness," Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol.
4, no. 1, pp. 23–32, 2011.
[8] A. Van Gils, "Management and governance in Dutch SMEs," European
Management Journal, vol. 23, no. 5, pp.583-589, 2005.
[9] B. Sullivan-Taylor and L. Branicki, "Creating resilient SMEs: why one
size might not fit all," International Journal of Production Research,
vol. 49, no. 18, pp. 5565-5579, 2011.
[10] J. Grunert, and L. Norden, "Bargaining power and information in SME
lending," Small Business Economics, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 401-417, 2012.
[11] G. Wedawatta and B. Ingirige, "Resilience and adaptation of small and
medium-sized enterprises to flood risk," Disaster Prevention
Management, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 474–488, 2012.
[12] International Organization for Standardization, "ISO 22301 Societal
Security - Business Continuity Management Systems", Geneva,
Switzerland, ISO, 2012.
[13] M. Pitt, Learning Lessons from the 2007 Floods (The Pitt Review: Final
report), London, Cabinet Office, 2008.
[14] P. Woodman and B. Musgrave, Weathering the Storm - the 2013
Business Continuity Management Survey. London, Chartered
Management Institute, March 2013.
[15] I.F. Wilkinson, R. Marks and L. Young, "Toward Agent-based Models
of the Development and Evolution of Business Relations and
Networks," in A.A. Minai, Y. Bar-Yam (Eds.), Unifying themes in
complex systems, Vol. IV Springer, pp. 414–421, 2010.
[16] G. Fioretti, "Agent-Based Simulation Models in Organization Science,"
Organizational Research Methods, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 227-242, 2012.
[17] I.F. Wilkinson, L. Young, R. Marks, T. Bossomaier, and F.P. Held,
"Toward a Business Network Agent-Based Modeling System,"
International Conference on Complex Systems, pp. 680-691, 2011.
[18] K. Blackmore, T. Bossomaier, D. Jarnett, and K. Nesbitt, "Intelligent
Agent Framework for Modeling the Evolution of Small and Medium
Enterprises," Australian and New Zealand Intelligent Information
Systems Conference, pp. 345-350, 2003.
[19] T. Qiuyan, "Analysis on the Agent Based Complex Adaptive Growth
System of the Small and Medium Enterprises," International Small
and Medium-sized Enterprises Development Forum, pp. 506-511, 2009.
[20] J. Tounsi, G. Habchi, J. Boissiere and S. Azalez, "A multi-agent
knowledge model for SMEs mechatronic supply chains," Journal of
Intelligent Manufacturing, 2012, pp. 2647-2665.
[21] F. Pablo-Martí, M. T. Gallo, A. García-Tabuenca, J.L. Santos and T.
Mancha, "MOSIPS Agent-based model for predicting and simulating the
impact of public policies on SMEs," European Conference on Complex
Systems, pp. 399-413, 2012.
[22] T. Fuller and P. Moran, “Small Firms as Complex Adaptive Systems: A
Review”, ICSB Conference, Naples, Italy, 1999.
[23] B. Ingirige and G. Wedawatta, "SME Resilience to Extreme Weather
Events: Important Initiatives for Informing Policy Making in the Area,"
International Conference on Building Resilience, July 2011.
[24] N. Bhattacharya-Mis and J. Lamond, "An investigation of patterns of
response and recovery among flood-affected businesses in the UK: a
case study in Sheffield and Wakefield," International Conference on
Flood Recovery, Innovation and Response, pp. 163-173, 2014.
[25] M.B. Miles and A.M. Hubermann, Qualitative Data Analysis. London,
Sage, 1994.
[26] J.B. Barney, "Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage,"
Journal of Management, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 99-120, 1991.
[27] J.D. Teece, G. Pisano and A. Shuen, "Dynamic capabilities and strategic
management," Strategic Management Journal, vol. 18, no. 7, pp. 509-
533, 1997.
[28] B. Wernerfelt, "A resource-based view of the firm," Strategic
Management Journal, vol. 5, pp. 171-180, 1984.
[29] B. Wernerfelt, "Invited Editorial: The Use of Resources in Resource
Acquisition," Journal of Management, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 1369-1373,
2011.
[30] C. Lévi-Strauss, The Savage Mind. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago
Press, 1966.
[31] T. Baker, A.S. Miner and D.T. Eesley, "Improvising firms: bricolage,
account giving and improvisational competencies in the founding
process," Research Policy, vol. 32, pp. 255–276, 2003.
[32] A. Ates and U. Bititci, "Change process: a key enabler for building
resilient SMEs," International Journal of Production Research, vol. 49,
no. 18, pp. 5601-5618, 2011.
[33] E. Seville, D. Brunsdon, A. Dantas, J. Le Masurier, S. Wilkinson and J.
Vargo, "Building Organizational Resilience: A summary of Key
Research Findings, Engineering Report, University of Canterbury, New
Zealand, 2006.
[34] R. McMahon, "Stage models of SME growth reconsidered," The
Flinders University of South Australia, School of Commerce Research
Paper Series, 1998, Research Paper Series: 98-5, 1998.
[35] A.M. Moreno and J.C. Moreno, "Entrepreneurial Orientation and
Growth of SMEs: A Causal Model," Entrepreneurship: Theory &
Practice, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 507-528, 2008.
[36] Environment Agency, “Review of 2007 summer floods”, 2007.
[37] Environment Agency, “Would your business stay afloat?: A guide to
preparing your business for flooding”.
[1] Department of Business Innovation and Skills, "Business Population
Estimates for the UK and Regions 2012", 2012.
[2] Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and Environment
Agency, "The cost of the summer 2007 floods in England", 2010.
[3] G. Coates, G.I. Hawe, M. McGuinness, N.G. Wright, D. Guan, T.
Harries and L. McEwen, "A framework for organisational operational
response and strategic decision making for long term flood preparedness
in urban areas", 3rd International Conference on Disaster Management,
pp. 89-98, July 2013.
[4] P. Woodman, Business Continuity Management. London: Chartered
Management Institute, 2008.
[5] R. Whittle, W. Medd, H. Deeming, E. Kashefi, M. Mort, C. Twigger
Ross, G. Walker and N. Watson, "After the Rain - learning the lessons
from flood recovery in Hull", Final project report on ‘Flood,
vulnerability and urban resilience: a real-time study of local recovery
following the floods of June 2007 in Hull’. Lancaster University, UK,
2010.
[6] EKOS Consulting (UK) Ltd., Evaluation of Yorkshire forward’s flood
response. Sheffield: EKOS Consulting (UK) Ltd, 2008.
[7] D. Molinari and J. Handmer, "A behavioural model for quantifying
flood warning effectiveness," Journal of Flood Risk Management, vol.
4, no. 1, pp. 23–32, 2011.
[8] A. Van Gils, "Management and governance in Dutch SMEs," European
Management Journal, vol. 23, no. 5, pp.583-589, 2005.
[9] B. Sullivan-Taylor and L. Branicki, "Creating resilient SMEs: why one
size might not fit all," International Journal of Production Research,
vol. 49, no. 18, pp. 5565-5579, 2011.
[10] J. Grunert, and L. Norden, "Bargaining power and information in SME
lending," Small Business Economics, vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 401-417, 2012.
[11] G. Wedawatta and B. Ingirige, "Resilience and adaptation of small and
medium-sized enterprises to flood risk," Disaster Prevention
Management, vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 474–488, 2012.
[12] International Organization for Standardization, "ISO 22301 Societal
Security - Business Continuity Management Systems", Geneva,
Switzerland, ISO, 2012.
[13] M. Pitt, Learning Lessons from the 2007 Floods (The Pitt Review: Final
report), London, Cabinet Office, 2008.
[14] P. Woodman and B. Musgrave, Weathering the Storm - the 2013
Business Continuity Management Survey. London, Chartered
Management Institute, March 2013.
[15] I.F. Wilkinson, R. Marks and L. Young, "Toward Agent-based Models
of the Development and Evolution of Business Relations and
Networks," in A.A. Minai, Y. Bar-Yam (Eds.), Unifying themes in
complex systems, Vol. IV Springer, pp. 414–421, 2010.
[16] G. Fioretti, "Agent-Based Simulation Models in Organization Science,"
Organizational Research Methods, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 227-242, 2012.
[17] I.F. Wilkinson, L. Young, R. Marks, T. Bossomaier, and F.P. Held,
"Toward a Business Network Agent-Based Modeling System,"
International Conference on Complex Systems, pp. 680-691, 2011.
[18] K. Blackmore, T. Bossomaier, D. Jarnett, and K. Nesbitt, "Intelligent
Agent Framework for Modeling the Evolution of Small and Medium
Enterprises," Australian and New Zealand Intelligent Information
Systems Conference, pp. 345-350, 2003.
[19] T. Qiuyan, "Analysis on the Agent Based Complex Adaptive Growth
System of the Small and Medium Enterprises," International Small
and Medium-sized Enterprises Development Forum, pp. 506-511, 2009.
[20] J. Tounsi, G. Habchi, J. Boissiere and S. Azalez, "A multi-agent
knowledge model for SMEs mechatronic supply chains," Journal of
Intelligent Manufacturing, 2012, pp. 2647-2665.
[21] F. Pablo-Martí, M. T. Gallo, A. García-Tabuenca, J.L. Santos and T.
Mancha, "MOSIPS Agent-based model for predicting and simulating the
impact of public policies on SMEs," European Conference on Complex
Systems, pp. 399-413, 2012.
[22] T. Fuller and P. Moran, “Small Firms as Complex Adaptive Systems: A
Review”, ICSB Conference, Naples, Italy, 1999.
[23] B. Ingirige and G. Wedawatta, "SME Resilience to Extreme Weather
Events: Important Initiatives for Informing Policy Making in the Area,"
International Conference on Building Resilience, July 2011.
[24] N. Bhattacharya-Mis and J. Lamond, "An investigation of patterns of
response and recovery among flood-affected businesses in the UK: a
case study in Sheffield and Wakefield," International Conference on
Flood Recovery, Innovation and Response, pp. 163-173, 2014.
[25] M.B. Miles and A.M. Hubermann, Qualitative Data Analysis. London,
Sage, 1994.
[26] J.B. Barney, "Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage,"
Journal of Management, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 99-120, 1991.
[27] J.D. Teece, G. Pisano and A. Shuen, "Dynamic capabilities and strategic
management," Strategic Management Journal, vol. 18, no. 7, pp. 509-
533, 1997.
[28] B. Wernerfelt, "A resource-based view of the firm," Strategic
Management Journal, vol. 5, pp. 171-180, 1984.
[29] B. Wernerfelt, "Invited Editorial: The Use of Resources in Resource
Acquisition," Journal of Management, vol. 37, no. 5, pp. 1369-1373,
2011.
[30] C. Lévi-Strauss, The Savage Mind. Chicago, IL, University of Chicago
Press, 1966.
[31] T. Baker, A.S. Miner and D.T. Eesley, "Improvising firms: bricolage,
account giving and improvisational competencies in the founding
process," Research Policy, vol. 32, pp. 255–276, 2003.
[32] A. Ates and U. Bititci, "Change process: a key enabler for building
resilient SMEs," International Journal of Production Research, vol. 49,
no. 18, pp. 5601-5618, 2011.
[33] E. Seville, D. Brunsdon, A. Dantas, J. Le Masurier, S. Wilkinson and J.
Vargo, "Building Organizational Resilience: A summary of Key
Research Findings, Engineering Report, University of Canterbury, New
Zealand, 2006.
[34] R. McMahon, "Stage models of SME growth reconsidered," The
Flinders University of South Australia, School of Commerce Research
Paper Series, 1998, Research Paper Series: 98-5, 1998.
[35] A.M. Moreno and J.C. Moreno, "Entrepreneurial Orientation and
Growth of SMEs: A Causal Model," Entrepreneurship: Theory &
Practice, vol. 32, no. 3, pp. 507-528, 2008.
[36] Environment Agency, “Review of 2007 summer floods”, 2007.
[37] Environment Agency, “Would your business stay afloat?: A guide to
preparing your business for flooding”.
@article{"International Journal of Business, Human and Social Sciences:68635", author = "C. Li and G. Coates and N. Johnson and M. McGuinness", title = "Designing an Agent-Based Model of SMEs to Assess Flood Response Strategies and Resilience", abstract = "In the UK, flooding is responsible for significant
losses to the economy due to the impact on businesses, the vast
majority of which are Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs).
Businesses of this nature tend to lack formal plans to aid their
response to and recovery from disruptive events such as flooding.
This paper reports on work on how an agent-based model (ABM) is
being developed based on interview data gathered from SMEs at-risk
of flooding and/or have direct experience of flooding. The ABM will
enable simulations to be performed allowing investigations of
different response strategies which SMEs may employ to lessen the
impact of flooding, thus strengthening their resilience.
", keywords = "ABM, Flood response, SMEs, Business continuity.", volume = "9", number = "1", pages = "7-6", }
