Bus Transit Demand Modeling and Fare Structure Analysis of Kabul City

Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.

Authors:

• Ramin Mirzada
• Takuya Maruyama

Keywords:

• Transportation
• planning
• public transport
• large buses
• fixed fare
• distance based fare
• Kabul
• Afghanistan.

References:

[1] Federal highway administration, Federal transit administration, The transportation planning process key issues, a brief book for transportation decision makers, A publication of the transportation planning Capacity building, 2015 update (Book style).
[2] Central statistical office (CSO), Islamic republic of Afghanistan (report style) http://www.cso.gov.af/. Access date 6/7/2016.
[3] Demography and social Development. Final report sector 1, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), September 2009. (Report style)
[4] Kabul city master plan, sub project for revise the Kabul city master plan, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), June 2011. (Master plan).
[5] Overview of Transportation in Kabul City, Afghanistan, A.J. Habibzai, S. Habibzai and C.Sun. (Report style).
[6] The study for the development of the master plan for the Kabul metropolitan area in the Islamic republic of Afghanistan, Transportation sector, Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), September 2009. (Report style)
[7] Ministry of transportation, Millie bus (national bus) authority, Department of planning, Mille bus history report (Report style)
[8] Barnes, G. and Davis, Understanding Urban Travel Demand: Problems, Solutions, and the Role of Forecasting, University of Minnesota Center for Transportation Studies: Transportation and Regional Growth Study, G. 2000. (Book style)
[9] Travel demand forcsting “theory and concept” the gravity model (Repot style) http://www.princeton.edu , Access date 2/6/2016.
[10] Tom V. Mathew. K V Krishna Rao “Introduction to transportation Engineering” Chapter 9 Model split, NPTEL may 2007. (Report style)
[11] Edward A. Beimborn Center for transportation studies “Transpiration Modeling Primer” University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Update June 2006. (Book style).
[12] Tom V. Mathew “Transportation Network Design” October 2006. (Book style).
[13] Tom V. Mathew. K V Krishna Rao “Introduction to transportation Engineering” Chapter 10 Traffic Assignment, NPTEL May 2007. (Report style)
[14] Baryalai Yusufy “Analyzing Public Transport for the Kabul City by development of bus transport mode” Kumamoto University Japan July 2014. (Report style).
[15] C.S. Papacostas, P.D Prevedouros “Hand book of transportation engineering and planning. Third edition (Book style).
[16] Godrej and Boyce Premises Gasworks Land, “Bus Karo Guide book on bus planning and operation” Indian government. (Book style).