Abstract: Fuzzy Load forecasting plays a paramount role in the operation and management of power systems. Accurate estimation of future power demands for various lead times facilitates the task of generating power reliably and economically. The forecasting of future loads for a relatively large lead time (months to few years) is studied here (long term load forecasting). Among the various techniques used in forecasting load, artificial intelligence techniques provide greater accuracy to the forecasts as compared to conventional techniques. Fuzzy Logic, a very robust artificial intelligent technique, is described in this paper to forecast load on long term basis. The paper gives a general algorithm to forecast long term load. The algorithm is an Extension of Short term load forecasting method to Long term load forecasting and concentrates not only on the forecast values of load but also on the errors incorporated into the forecast. Hence, by correcting the errors in the forecast, forecasts with very high accuracy have been achieved. The algorithm, in the paper, is demonstrated with the help of data collected for residential sector (LT2 (a) type load: Domestic consumers). Load, is determined for three consecutive years (from April-06 to March-09) in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the algorithm and to forecast for the next two years (from April-09 to March-11).
Abstract: Measurements of capacitance C and dissipation
factor tand of the stator insulation system provide useful information
about internal defects within the insulation. The index k is defined as
the proportionality constant between the changes at high voltage of
capacitance DC and of the dissipation factor Dtand . DC and
Dtand values were highly correlated when small flat defects were
within the insulation and that correlation was lost in the presence of
large narrow defects like electrical treeing. The discrimination
between small and large defects is made resorting to partial discharge
PD phase angle analysis. For the validation of the results, C and tand
measurements were carried out in a 15MVA 4160V steam turbine
turbogenerator placed in a sugar mill. In addition, laboratory test
results obtained by other authors were analyzed jointly. In such
laboratory tests, model coil bars subjected to thermal cycling resulted
highly degraded and DC and Dtand values were not correlated. Thus,
the index k could not be calculated.
Abstract: The article touches upon questions of information security in Russian Economy. It covers theoretical bases of information security and causes of its development. The theory is proved by the analysis of business activities and the main tendencies of information security development. Perm region has been chosen as the bases for the analysis, being the fastestdeveloping region that uses methods of information security in managing it economy. As a result of the study the authors of the given article have formulated their own vision of the problem of information security in various branches of economy and stated prospects of information security development and its growing role in Russian economy
Abstract: The paper investigates the feasibility of constructing a software multi-agent based monitoring and classification system and utilizing it to provide an automated and accurate classification of end users developing applications in the spreadsheet domain. The agents function autonomously to provide continuous and periodic monitoring of excels spreadsheet workbooks. Resulting in, the development of the MultiAgent classification System (MACS) that is in compliance with the specifications of the Foundation for Intelligent Physical Agents (FIPA). However, different technologies have been brought together to build MACS. The strength of the system is the integration of the agent technology with the FIPA specifications together with other technologies that are Windows Communication Foundation (WCF) services, Service Oriented Architecture (SOA), and Oracle Data Mining (ODM). The Microsoft's .NET widows service based agents were utilized to develop the monitoring agents of MACS, the .NET WCF services together with SOA approach allowed the distribution and communication between agents over the WWW that is in order to satisfy the monitoring and classification of the multiple developer aspect. ODM was used to automate the classification phase of MACS.
Abstract: The study of non-equilibrium systems has attracted
increasing interest in recent years, mainly due to the lack of
theoretical frameworks, unlike their equilibrium counterparts.
Studying the steady state and/or simple systems is thus one of the
main interests. Hence in this work we have focused our attention on
the driven lattice gas model (DLG model) consisting of interacting
particles subject to an external field E. The dynamics of the system
are given by hopping of particles to nearby empty sites with rates
biased for jumps in the direction of E. Having used small two
dimensional systems of DLG model, the stochastic properties at nonequilibrium
steady state were analytically studied. To understand the
non-equilibrium phenomena, we have applied the analytic approach
via master equation to calculate probability function and analyze
violation of detailed balance in term of the fluctuation-dissipation
theorem. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to validate
the analytic results.
Abstract: In built-up structures, one of the effective ways of
dissipating unwanted vibration is to exploit the occurrence of slip at
the interfaces of structural laminates. The present work focuses on
the dynamic analysis of welded structures. A mathematical
formulation has been developed for the mechanism of slip damping
in layered and welded mild steel beams with unequal thickness
subjected to both periodic and non-periodic forces. It is observed that
a number of vital parameters such as; thickness ratio, pressure
distribution characteristics, relative slip and kinematic co-efficient of
friction at the interfaces, nature of exciting forces, length and
thickness of the beam specimen govern the damping characteristics of
these structures. Experimental verification has been carried out to
validate the analysis and study the effect of these parameters. The
developed damping model for the structure is found to be in fairly
good agreement with the measured data. Finally, the results of the
analysis are discussed and rationalized.
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to research on thoughts transmitted from virtual fitting-room and to deduce discussion in an auxiliary narrative way. The research structure is based on 3D virtual fitting-room as the research subject. Initially, we will discuss the principles of narrate study, User Demand and so on by using a narrative design pattern to transmit their objective indications of “people-situation-reason-object", etc, and then to analyze the virtual fitting-room examples that are able to provide a new thinking for designers who engaged in clothing related industry – which comes in “story telling" and “user-centered design" forms. Clothing designs are not just to cover up the body to keep warm but to draw closer to people-s demand physiologically and psychologically through interactive designs so as to achieve cognition between people and environment. In the “outside" goal of clothing-s functional designs, we use tribal group-s behavior characteristics to “transform" the existing personal cultural stories, and “reform" them to design appropriate interactive products. Synthesizing the above matters, apart from being able to regard “narrate" as a kind of functional thinking process, we are also able to regard it as a kind of choice, arrangement and an activity of story expression, allowing interactive design-s spirit, product characteristics and experience ideas be transmitted to target tribal group in a visual image performance method. It is a far more confident and innovative attempt, and meanwhile, able to achieve entertainment, joyful and so forth fundamental interactive transmissions. Therefore, this study takes “user-centered design" thinking as a basis to establish a set of clothing designs with interactive experience patterns and to assist designers to examine the five sensual feeling of interactive demands in order to initiate a new value in textile industry.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a hybrid machine learning
system based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Support Vector
Machines (SVM) for stock market prediction. A variety of indicators
from the technical analysis field of study are used as input features.
We also make use of the correlation between stock prices of different
companies to forecast the price of a stock, making use of technical
indicators of highly correlated stocks, not only the stock to be
predicted. The genetic algorithm is used to select the set of most
informative input features from among all the technical indicators.
The results show that the hybrid GA-SVM system outperforms the
stand alone SVM system.
Abstract: The quantum mechanics simulation was applied for
calculating the interaction force between 2 molecules based on atomic level. For the simple extractive distillation system, it is ternary
components consisting of 2 closed boiling point components (A,lower boiling point and B, higher boiling point) and solvent (S). The
quantum mechanics simulation was used to calculate the intermolecular force (interaction force) between the closed boiling
point components and solvents consisting of intermolecular between
A-S and B-S.
The requirement of the promising solvent for extractive distillation
is that solvent (S) has to form stronger intermolecular force with only
one component than the other component (A or B). In this study, the
systems of aromatic-aromatic, aromatic-cycloparaffin, and paraffindiolefin
systems were selected as the demonstration for solvent
selection. This study defined new term using for screening the solvents called relative interaction force which is calculated from the
quantum mechanics simulation. The results showed that relative
interaction force gave the good agreement with the literature data
(relative volatilities from the experiment). The reasons are discussed. Finally, this study suggests that quantum mechanics results can improve the relative volatility estimation for screening the solvents leading to reduce time and money consuming
Abstract: The aim of this study was to extract sugar from
sugarcane using high electric field pulse (HELP) as a non-thermal cell permeabilization method. The result of this study showed that it
is possible to permeablize sugar cane cells using HELP at very short times (less than 10 sec.) and at room temperature. Increasing the field strength (from 0.5kV/cm to 2kV/cm) and pulse number (1 to 12) led to increasing the permeabilization of sugar cane cells. The energy
consumption during HELP treatment of sugar cane (2.4 kJ/kg) was about 100 times less compared to thermal cell disintegration at 85
Abstract: Hybridization refers to the crossing breeding of two
plants. Coefficient of Parentage (COP) is used by the plant breeders
to determine the genetic diversity across various varieties so as to
incorporate the useful characters of the two varieties to develop a
new crop variety with particular useful characters. Genetic Diversity
is the prerequisite for any cultivar development program. Genetic
Diversity depends upon the pedigree information of the varieties
based on particular levels. Pedigree refers to the parents of a
particular variety at various levels. This paper discusses the searching
and analyses of different possible pairs of varieties selected on the
basis of morphological characters, Climatic conditions and Nutrients
so as to obtain the most optimal pair that can produce the required
crossbreed variety. An algorithm was developed to determine the
coefficient of parentage (COP) between the selected wheat varieties.
Dummy values were used wherever actual data was not available.
Abstract: Today, the central role of industrial robots in automation in general and in material handling in particular is crystal clear. Based on the current status of Photovoltaics and by focusing on lightweight material handling, PV industry has turned into a potential candidate for introducing a fresh “pick and place" robot technology. Thus, to examine the industry needs in this regard, firstly the best suited applications for such robotic automation,and then the essential prerequisites in PV industry should be identified. The objective of this paper is to present holistic views on the industry trends, general automation status and existing challenges facing lightweight robotic material handling in PV Silicon Wafer and Thin Film technologies. The results of this study show that currently no uniform pick and place solution prevails among PV Silicon Wafer manufacturers and the industry calls for a new robot solution to satisfy its needs in new directions.
Abstract: The electrokinetic flow resistance (electroviscous
effect) is predicted for steady state, pressure-driven liquid flow at
low Reynolds number in a microfluidic contraction of rectangular
cross-section. Calculations of the three dimensional flow are
performed in parallel using a finite volume numerical method. The
channel walls are assumed to carry a uniform charge density and the
liquid is taken to be a symmetric 1:1 electrolyte. Predictions are
presented for a single set of flow and electrokinetic parameters. It is
shown that the magnitude of the streaming potential gradient and the
charge density of counter-ions in the liquid is greater than that in
corresponding two-dimensional slit-like contraction geometry. The
apparent viscosity is found to be very close to the value for a
rectangular channel of uniform cross-section at the chosen Reynolds
number (Re = 0.1). It is speculated that the apparent viscosity for the
contraction geometry will increase as the Reynolds number is
reduced.
Abstract: A game animals – elk (Alces alces), deer (Cervus
elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) or wild boar (Sus scrofa
scrofa) - every autumn and winter period provide an excellent
investment, diversification of many consumer meals. In last years
consumption and assortiment of game meat products significantly
increase. Investigations about biochemical composition of game meat
are not very much. The meat of wild animals is more favourable for
human health because it has lower saturated fatty acids content, but
higher content of protein. Therefore the aim of investigations was to
compare biochemical composition of ungulates obtained in
Latvia.Investigations were carried out in wild animals different
regions of Latvia. In the studied samples protein, intramuscular fat,
fatty acids and cholesterol were determined. The biochemical
analysis of 54 samples were done. Results of analysis showed that
protein content 22.36 – 22.92% of all types of meat samples is not
different statistically, significantly lower fat content 1.33 ± 0.88%
had elk meat samples and 1.59 ± 0.59% roe deer samples. Content of
cholesterol was various 64.41 – 95.07% in the ruminant meat
samples of different species. From the dietetic point of view the best
composition of fatty acids has meat samples of roe deer.
Abstract: The present study aims to evaluating the effect of
rotor solidity - in terms of chord length for a given rotor diameter - on
the performances of a small vertical axis Darrieus wind turbine. The
proposed work focuses on both power production and rotor power
coefficient, considering also the structural constraints deriving from
the centrifugal forces due to rotor angular velocity. Also the
smoothness of the resulting power curves have been investigated, in
order to evaluate the controllability of the corresponding rotor
architectures.
Abstract: Asthma is a condition that causing chronic health problems in children. In addition to basic therapy against disease, we must try to reduce the impact of chronic health problems and also optimize their medical aspect of growth and development. A boy with mild asthma attack frequent episode did not showed any improvement with medical treatment and his asthma control test was 11. From radiologic examination he got hyperaerated lung and billateral sinusitis maxillaris; skin test results were house dust, food and pet allergy; an overweight body; bad school grades; psychological and environmental problem. We followed and evaluated this boy in 6 months, treated holistically. Even we could not do much on environmental but no more psychological and school problems, his on a good bodyweight and his asthma control test was 22. A case of a child with mild asthma attack frequent episode was reported. Asthma clinical course show no significant improvement when other predisposing factor is not well-controlled and a child’s growth and development may be affected. Improving condition of the patient can be created with the help of loving and caring way of nurturing from the parents and supportive peer group. Therefore, continuous and consistent monitoring is required because prognosis of asthma is generally good when regularly and properly controlled.
Abstract: The main purpose of this paper is to investigate thelong-run equilibrium and short-run dynamics of international housing prices when macroeconomic variables change. We apply the Pedroni’s, panel cointegration, using the unbalanced panel data analysis of 33 countries over the period from 1980Q1 to 2013Q1, to examine the relationships among house prices and macroeconomic variables. Our empirical results of panel data cointegration tests support the existence of a cointegration among these macroeconomic variables and house prices. Besides, the empirical results of panel DOLS further present that a 1% increase in economic activity, long-term interest rates, and construction costs cause house prices to respectively change 2.16%, -0.04%, and 0.22% in the long run.Furthermore, the increasing economic activity and the construction cost would cause strongerimpacts on the house prices for lower income countries than higher income countries.The results lead to the conclusion that policy of house prices growth can be regarded as economic growth for lower income countries. Finally, in America region, the coefficient of economic activity is the highest, which displays that increasing economic activity causes a faster rise in house prices there than in other regions. There are some special cases whereby the coefficients of interest rates are significantly positive in America and Asia regions.
Abstract: Response surface methodology with Box–Benhken (BB) design of experiment approach has been utilized to study the mechanism of interface slip damping in layered and jointed tack welded beams with varying surface roughness. The design utilizes the initial amplitude of excitation, tack length and surface roughness at the interfaces to develop the model for the logarithmic damping decrement of the layered and jointed welded structures. Statistically designed experiments have been performed to estimate the coefficients in the mathematical model, predict the response, and check the adequacy of the model. Comparison of predicted and experimental response values outside the design conditions have shown good correspondence, implying that empirical model derived from response surface approach can be effectively used to describe the mechanism of interface slip damping in layered and jointed tack welded structures.
Abstract: The MFCAV Riemann solver is practically used in many Lagrangian or ALE methods due to its merit of sharp shock profiles and rarefaction corners, though very often with numerical oscillations. By viewing it as a modification of the WWAM Riemann solver, we apply the MFCAV Riemann solver to the Lagrangian method recently developed by Maire. P. H et. al.. The numerical experiments show that the application is successful in that the shock profiles and rarefaction corners are sharpened compared with results obtained using other Riemann solvers. Though there are still numerical oscillations, they are within the range of the MFCAV applied in onther Lagrangian methods.
Abstract: The purpose of my research proposal is to
demonstrate that there is a relationship between EEG and
endometrial cancer.
The above relationship is based on an Aristotelian Syllogism;
since it is known that the 14-3-3 protein is related to the electrical
activity of the brain via control of the flow of Na+ and K+ ions and
since it is also known that many types of cancer are associated with
14-3-3 protein, it is possible that there is a relationship between EEG
and cancer. This research will be carried out by well-defined
diagnostic indicators, obtained via the EEG, using signal processing
procedures and pattern recognition tools such as neural networks in
order to recognize the endometrial cancer type. The current research
shall compare the findings from EEG and hysteroscopy performed on
women of a wide age range. Moreover, this practice could be
expanded to other types of cancer. The implementation of this
methodology will be completed with the creation of an ontology.
This ontology shall define the concepts existing in this research-s
domain and the relationships between them. It will represent the
types of relationships between hysteroscopy and EEG findings.