Abstract: This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.
Abstract: Vickers indentation is used to measure the hardness
of materials. In this study, numerical simulation of Vickers
indentation experiment was performed for Diamond like Carbon
(DLC) coated materials. DLC coatings were deposited on stainless
steel 304 substrates with Chromium buffer layer using RF Magnetron
and T-shape Filtered Cathodic Vacuum Arc Dual system The
objective of this research is to understand the elastic plastic
properties, stress strain distribution, ring and lateral crack growth and
propagation, penetration depth of indenter and delamination of
coating from substrate with effect of buffer layer thickness. The
effect of Poisson-s ratio of DLC coating was also analyzed. Indenter
penetration is more in coated materials with thin buffer layer as
compared to thicker one, under same conditions. Similarly, the
specimens with thinner buffer layer failed quickly due to high
residual stress as compared to the coated materials with reasonable
thickness of 200nm buffer layer. The simulation results suggested the
optimized thickness of 200 nm among the prepared specimens for
durable and long service.
Abstract: The present work deals with analyses of the effects
of bearing curvature and non-Newtonian characteristics on the load capacity of an exponential rectangular squeeze film bearing using
Bingham fluids as lubricants. Bingham fluids are characterized by an
yield value and hence the formation of a “rigid" core in the region
between the plates is justified. The flow is confined to the region
between the core and the plates. The shape of the core has been
identified through numerical means. Further, numerical solutions for
the pressure distribution and load carrying capacity of the bearing
for various values of Bingham number and curvature parameter have
been obtained. The effects of bearing curvature and non-Newtonian
characteristics of the lubricant on the bearing performances have been
discussed.
Abstract: This article is focused on the calculation of heat
radiation intensity and its optimization on an aluminum mould
surface. The inside of the mould is sprinkled with a special powder
and its outside is heated by infra heaters located above the mould
surface, up to a temperature of 250°C. By this way artificial leathers
in the car industry are produced (e. g. the artificial leather on a car
dashboard). A mathematical model of heat radiation of infra heaters
on a mould surface is described in this paper. This model allows us to
calculate a heat-intensity radiation on the mould surface for the
concrete location of infra heaters above the mould surface. It is
necessary to ensure approximately the same heat intensity radiation
on the mould surface by finding a suitable location for the infra
heaters, and in this way the same material structure and color of
artificial leather. In the model we have used a genetic algorithm to
optimize the radiation intensity on the mould surface. Experimental
measured values for the heat radiation intensity by a sensor in the
surroundings of an infra heater are used for the calculation
procedures. A computational procedure was programmed in language
Matlab.
Abstract: Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s can be modeled for
High Energy Particle analysis with special emphasis on shower core
location. The work describes the use of an ANN based system which
has been configured to predict locations of cores of showers in the
range 1010.5 to 1020.5 eV. The system receives density values as
inputs and generates coordinates of shower events recorded for values
captured by 20 core positions and 80 detectors in an area of 100
meters. Twenty ANNs are trained for the purpose and the positions
of shower events optimized by using cooperative ANN learning. The
results derived with variations of input upto 50% show success rates
in the range of 90s.
Abstract: In today-s highly globalised and competitive world
access to information plays key role in having an upper hand between
business rivals. Hence, proper protection of such crucial resource is
core to any modern business. Implementing a successful information
security system is basically centered around three pillars; technical
solution involving both software and hardware, information security
controls to translate the policies and procedure in the system and the
people to implement. This paper shows that a lot needs to be done for
countries adapting information technology to process, store and
distribute information to secure adequately such core resource.
Abstract: This paper aims to study at the use of local knowledge
to develop community self-protection in flood prone residential area,
Ayutthaya Island has been chosen as a case study. This study tries to
examine the strength of local knowledge which is able to develop
community self-protection and cope with flood disaster. In-depth, this
paper focuses on the influence of social network on knowledge
transfer. After conducted the research, authors reviewed the strength
of local knowledge and also mentioned the obstacles of community to
use and also transfer local knowledge. Moreover, the result of the
study revealed that local knowledge is not always transferred by the
strongest-tie social network (family or kinship) as we used to believe.
Surprisingly, local knowledge could be also transferred by the
weaker-tie social network (teacher/ monk) with the better
effectiveness in some knowledge.
Abstract: The aim of this study is to discover secondary school students’ perceptions related to information technologies and the connections between concepts in their cognitive structures. A word association test consisting of six concepts related to information technologies is used to collect data from 244 secondary school students. Concept maps that present students’ cognitive structures are drawn with the help of frequency data. Data are analyzed and interpreted according to the connections obtained as a result of the concept maps. It is determined students associate most with these concepts—computer, Internet, and communication of the given concepts, and associate least with these concepts—computer-assisted education and information technologies. These results show the concepts, Internet, communication, and computer, are an important part of students’ cognitive structures. In addition, students mostly answer computer, phone, game, Internet and Facebook as the key concepts. These answers show students regard information technologies as a means for entertainment and free time activity, not as a means for education.
Abstract: Distributed Power generation has gained a lot of
attention in recent times due to constraints associated with
conventional power generation and new advancements in DG
technologies .The need to operate the power system economically
and with optimum levels of reliability has further led to an increase
in interest in Distributed Generation. However it is important to place
Distributed Generator on an optimum location so that the purpose of
loss minimization and voltage regulation is dully served on the
feeder. This paper investigates the impact of DG units installation on
electric losses, reliability and voltage profile of distribution networks.
In this paper, our aim would be to find optimal distributed
generation allocation for loss reduction subjected to constraint of
voltage regulation in distribution network. The system is further
analyzed for increased levels of Reliability. Distributed Generator
offers the additional advantage of increase in reliability levels as
suggested by the improvements in various reliability indices such as
SAIDI, CAIDI and AENS. Comparative studies are performed and
related results are addressed. An analytical technique is used in order
to find the optimal location of Distributed Generator. The suggested
technique is programmed under MATLAB software. The results
clearly indicate that DG can reduce the electrical line loss while
simultaneously improving the reliability of the system.
Abstract: Saccharomyces cerevisiae (baker-s yeast) can exhibit
sustained oscillations during the operation in a continuous bioreactor
that adversely affects its stability and productivity. Because of
heterogeneous nature of cell populations, the cell population balance
models can be used to capture the dynamic behavior of such cultures.
In this paper an unstructured, segregated model is used which is
based on population balance equation(PBE) and then in order to
simulation, the 4th order Rung-Kutta is used for time dimension and
three methods, finite difference, orthogonal collocation on finite
elements and Galerkin finite element are used for discretization of the
cell mass domain. The results indicate that the orthogonal collocation
on finite element not only is able to predict the oscillating behavior of
the cell culture but also needs much little time for calculations.
Therefore this method is preferred in comparison with other methods.
In the next step two controllers, a globally linearizing control (GLC)
and a conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller are designed
for controlling the total cell mass per unit volume, and performances
of these controllers are compared through simulation. The results
show that although the PI controller has simpler structure, the GLC
has better performance.
Abstract: The power transformer is the most expensive, indispensable and arguably the most important equipment item in a power system Insulation failure in transformers can cause long term interruption to supply and loss of revenue and the condition assessment of the insulation is thus an important maintenance procedure. Oil-impregnated transformer insulation consists of mainly organic materials including mineral oil and cellulose-base paper and pressboard. The operating life of cellulose-based insulation, as with most organic insulation, depends heavily on its operating temperature rise above ambient. This paper reports results of a laboratory-based experimental investigation of partial discharge (PD) activity at high temperature in oil-impregnated insulation. The experiments reported here are part an on-going programme aimed at investigating the way in which insulation deterioration can be monitored and quantified by use of partial discharge diagnostics. Partial discharge patterns were recorded and analysed during increasing and decreasing phases of the temperature. The effect of ageing of the insulation on the PD patterns in oil and oil-impregnated insulation are also considered.
Abstract: To maximise furnace production it-s necessary to
optimise furnace control, with the objectives of achieving maximum
power input into the melting process, minimum network distortion
and power-off time, without compromise on quality and safety. This
can be achieved with on the one hand by an appropriate electrode
control and on the other hand by a minimum of AC transformer
switching.
Electrical arc is a stochastic process; witch is the principal cause
of power quality problems, including voltages dips, harmonic
distortion, unbalance loads and flicker. So it is difficult to make an
appropriate model for an Electrical Arc Furnace (EAF). The factors
that effect EAF operation are the melting or refining materials,
melting stage, electrode position (arc length), electrode arm control
and short circuit power of the feeder. So arc voltages, current and
power are defined as a nonlinear function of the arc length. In this
article we propose our own empirical function of the EAF and model,
for the mean stages of the melting process, thanks to the
measurements in the steel factory.
Abstract: Bone growth factors, such as Bone Morphogenic
Protein-2 (BMP-2) have been approved by the FDA to replace grafting for some surgical interventions, but the high dose requirement limits its use in patients. Noggin, an extracellular protein, blocks the effect of BMP-2 by binding to BMP. Preventing
the BMP-2/noggin interaction will help increase the free
concentration of BMP-2 and therefore should enhance its efficacy to
induce bone formation. The work presented here involves
computational design of novel small molecule inhibitory agents of BMP-2/noggin interaction, based on our current understanding of
BMP-2, and its known putative ligands (receptors and antagonists). A
successful acquisition of such an inhibitory agent of BMP-2/noggin interaction would allow clinicians to reduce the dose required of
BMP-2 protein in clinical applications to promote osteogenesis. The
available crystal structures of the BMPs, its receptors, and the binding partner noggin were analyzed to identify the critical residues
involved in their interaction. In presenting this study, LUDI de novo design method was utilized to perform virtual screening of a large
number of compounds from a commercially available library against the binding sites of noggin to identify the lead chemical compounds
that could potentially block BMP-noggin interaction with a high specificity.
Abstract: Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.
Abstract: The range of the output power is a very important and evident limitation of two-level inverters. In order to overcome this disadvantage, multilevel inverters are introduced. Recently, Cascade H-Bridge inverters have emerged as one of the popular converter topologies used in numerous industrial applications. The modulation switching strategies such as phase shifted carrier based Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) technique and Stair case modulation with Selective Harmonic Elimination (SHE) PWM technique are generally used. NR method is used to solve highly non linear transcendental equations which are formed by SHEPWM method. Generally NR method has a drawback of requiring good initial guess but in this paper a new approach is implemented for NR method with any random initial guess. A three phase CHB 11-level inverter is chosen for analysis. MATLAB/SIMULINK programming environment and harmonic profiles are compared. Finally this paper presents a method at fundamental switching frequency with least % THDV.
Abstract: In the paper the research of flat textile products for use
as electrodes was presented. Material-s resistance measurements were
carried out to determine the suitability of the textiles. Based on the received results of studies different types of textile electrodes were
designed. Textile electrodes tests were carried out on human
phantoms. The electro-conductive properties of human forearm
phantom were also described. Based on this results special electroconductive
hydrogels with electro-conductive particles were feasible. The hydrogel is an important element of the forearm-s phantom
model of a survey of electrodes for muscle electrostimulation. The
hydrogel is an equivalent human skin and tissue. The hydrogel should
have a permanence and recurrence of the electro-conductive properties.
Abstract: In this study, in order to clarify wind-induced
phenomena, especially vertical mixing of density stratification in a
closed water area with floating-leaved plants, we conducted hydraulic
experiments on wind flow characteristics, wind wave characteristics,
entrainment phenomena and turbulent structure by using a wind tunnel
test tank and simulated floating-leaved plants. From the experimental
results of wind flow and wind wave characteristics, we quantified the
impact of the occupancy rate of the plants on their resistance
characteristics. From the experimental results of entrainment
phenomena, we defined the parameter that could explain the
magnitude of mixing between the density stratifications, and
quantified the impact of the occupancy rate on vertical mixing
between stratifications. From the experimental results of the turbulent
structure of the upper layer, we clarified the differences in small-scale
turbulence components at each occupancy rate and quantified the
impact of the occupancy rate on the turbulence characteristics. For a
summary of this study, we theoretically quantified wind-induced
entrainment phenomena in a closed water area with luxuriant growth
of floating-leaved plants. The results indicated that the impact of
luxuriant growth of floating-leaved plants in a closed water body
could be seen in the difference in small-scale fluid characteristics, and
these characteristics could be expressed using the small-scale
turbulent components.
Abstract: A power cable is widely used for power supply in
power distributing networks and power transmission lines. Due to
limitations in the production, delivery and setting up power cables,
they are produced and delivered in several separate lengths. Cable
itself, consists of two cable terminations and arbitrary number of
cable joints, depending on the cable route length. Electrical stress
control is needed to prevent a dielectric breakdown at the end of the
insulation shield in both the air and cable insulation. Reliability of
cable joint depends on its materials, design, installation and operating
environment. The paper describes design and performance results for
new modeled cable joints. Design concepts, based on numerical
calculations, must be correct. An Equivalent Electrodes
Method/Boundary Elements Method-hybrid approach that allows
electromagnetic field calculations in multilayer dielectric media,
including inhomogeneous regions, is presented.
Abstract: Biodiesel production results in glycerol production as
the main by-product in biodiesel industry.One of the utilizations of
glycerol obtained from biodiesel production is as a cement grinding
aid (CGA). Results showed that crude glycerol content was 40.19%
whereas pure glycerol content was 82.15%. BSS value of the cement
with CGA supplementation was higher than that of nonsupplemented
cement (blank) indicating that CGA-supplemented
cement had higher fineness than the non-supplemented one. It was
also found that pure glycerol 95% and TEA 5% at 80ºC was the
optimum CGA used to result in finest cement with BSS value of
4.836 cm2/g. Residue test showed that the smallest percent residue
value (0.11%) was obtained in cement with supplementation of pure
glycerol 95% and TEA 5%. Results of residue test confirmed those of
BSS test showing that cement with supplementation of pure glycerol
95% and TEA 5% had the finest particle size.
Abstract: An attempt has been made several times to identify
and discuss the U.S. experience on the formation of political nation in
political science. The purpose of this research paper is to identify the
main aspects of the formation of civic identity in the United States
and Kazakhstan, through the identification of similarities and
differences that can get practical application in making decisions of
national policy issues in the context of globalization, as well as to
answer the questions “What should unite the citizens of Kazakhstan
to the nation?" and “What should be the dominant identity: civil or
ethnic (national) one?"
Can Kazakhstan being multiethnic country like America, adopt its
experience in the formation of a civic nation? Since it is believed that
the “multi-ethnic state of the population is a characteristic feature of
most modern countries in the world," it states that “inter-ethnic
integration is one of the most important aspects of the problem of
forming a new social community (metaetnic - Kazakh people,
Kazakh nation" [1].