Reliability Assessment of Bangladesh Power System Using Recursive Algorithm
An electric utility-s main concern is to plan, design, operate and maintain its power supply to provide an acceptable level of reliability to its users. This clearly requires that standards of reliability be specified and used in all three sectors of the power system, i.e., generation, transmission and distribution. That is why reliability of a power system is always a major concern to power system planners. This paper presents the reliability analysis of Bangladesh Power System (BPS). Reliability index, loss of load probability (LOLP) of BPS is evaluated using recursive algorithm and considering no de-rated states of generators. BPS has sixty one generators and a total installed capacity of 5275 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5000 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and reliability index 'LOLP' is assessed for the period of last ten years.
[1] Marco Cepin. "Assesment of power system reliability-Methods and
applications", Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011
[2] R. Billinton and R.N.Allan, "Reliability evaluation of power system".
Plenum Press, New York,1996
[3] C. Singh, and R. Billinton, System Reliability Modeling and Evaluation,
London, U.K., Hutchinson Educational, 1977.
[4] R. Billinton , and G. Singh, "Application of Adverse and Extreme
Adverse Weather: Modeling in Transmission and Distribution System
Reliability Evaluation," Proc. Inst. Elect. Eng., Gen., Transm., Distrib.,
vol. 153, no. 1, pp. 115-120, Jan. 2006.
[5] C. Dichirico, and C. Singh, "Reliability Analysis of Transmission Lines
with Common Mode Failures When Repair Times are Arbitrarily
Distributed," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 1012-1019,
Aug. 1988.
[6] R. Billinton, and W. Li, "A Novel Method for Incorporating Weather
Effects in Composite System Adequacy Evaluation," IEEE Trans. Power
Syst., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 1154-1160, Aug. 1991.
[7] M. R. Bhuiyan and R. N. Allan, "Inclusion of Weather Effects in
Composite System Reliability Evaluation Using Sequential Simulation,"
Proc. Inst. Elect. Eng., Gen., Transm., Distrib., vol. 141, no. 6, pp. 575-
584, Nov. 1994.
[8] Yong Liu, and Singh, C., "Reliability Evaluation of Composite Power
Systems Using Markov Cut-Set Method", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol.
25, no. 2, pp. 777-785, May 2010.
[9] Guest Editorial, "Alternative Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty",
Reliability Engineering and System Safety 85 (2004), pp. 1-10.
[10] F. Owen Hoffman, and Jana S. Hammonds, "Propagation of Uncertainty
in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due
to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability", Risk
Analysis, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 707-712, 1994.
[11] Roy Billinton, and Dange Huang, "Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty
Considerations in Power System Reliability Evaluation", Proc. Inst.
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, pp. 1-8, May 2008.
[12] Li, W. "Incorporating Aging Failures in Power System Reliability
Evaluation" , IEEE Power Engineering Review, vol. 22, no. 7, pp. 59,
July 2002.
[13] R. A. Davidson, H. Liu, I. K. Sarpong, P. Sparks, and D. V. Rosowsky,
"Electric Power Distribution System Performance in Carolina
Hurricanes," Nat. Haz. Rev., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 36-45, Feb. 2003.
[14] H. Liu, R. A. Davidson, D. V. Rosowsky, and J. R. Stedinger, "Negative
Binomial Regression of Electric Power Outages in Hurricanes," J.
Infrastruct. Syst., vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 258-267, Dec. 2005.
[15] Jonnavithula, S., and Billinton, R., "Topological Analysis in Bulk Power
System Reliability Evaluation", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 12, no. 1,
pp. 456-463, Feb. 1997.
[1] Marco Cepin. "Assesment of power system reliability-Methods and
applications", Springer-Verlag London Limited 2011
[2] R. Billinton and R.N.Allan, "Reliability evaluation of power system".
Plenum Press, New York,1996
[3] C. Singh, and R. Billinton, System Reliability Modeling and Evaluation,
London, U.K., Hutchinson Educational, 1977.
[4] R. Billinton , and G. Singh, "Application of Adverse and Extreme
Adverse Weather: Modeling in Transmission and Distribution System
Reliability Evaluation," Proc. Inst. Elect. Eng., Gen., Transm., Distrib.,
vol. 153, no. 1, pp. 115-120, Jan. 2006.
[5] C. Dichirico, and C. Singh, "Reliability Analysis of Transmission Lines
with Common Mode Failures When Repair Times are Arbitrarily
Distributed," IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 3, no. 3, pp. 1012-1019,
Aug. 1988.
[6] R. Billinton, and W. Li, "A Novel Method for Incorporating Weather
Effects in Composite System Adequacy Evaluation," IEEE Trans. Power
Syst., vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 1154-1160, Aug. 1991.
[7] M. R. Bhuiyan and R. N. Allan, "Inclusion of Weather Effects in
Composite System Reliability Evaluation Using Sequential Simulation,"
Proc. Inst. Elect. Eng., Gen., Transm., Distrib., vol. 141, no. 6, pp. 575-
584, Nov. 1994.
[8] Yong Liu, and Singh, C., "Reliability Evaluation of Composite Power
Systems Using Markov Cut-Set Method", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol.
25, no. 2, pp. 777-785, May 2010.
[9] Guest Editorial, "Alternative Representations of Epistemic Uncertainty",
Reliability Engineering and System Safety 85 (2004), pp. 1-10.
[10] F. Owen Hoffman, and Jana S. Hammonds, "Propagation of Uncertainty
in Risk Assessments: The Need to Distinguish Between Uncertainty Due
to Lack of Knowledge and Uncertainty Due to Variability", Risk
Analysis, vol. 14, no. 5, pp. 707-712, 1994.
[11] Roy Billinton, and Dange Huang, "Aleatory and Epistemic Uncertainty
Considerations in Power System Reliability Evaluation", Proc. Inst.
Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems, pp. 1-8, May 2008.
[12] Li, W. "Incorporating Aging Failures in Power System Reliability
Evaluation" , IEEE Power Engineering Review, vol. 22, no. 7, pp. 59,
July 2002.
[13] R. A. Davidson, H. Liu, I. K. Sarpong, P. Sparks, and D. V. Rosowsky,
"Electric Power Distribution System Performance in Carolina
Hurricanes," Nat. Haz. Rev., vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 36-45, Feb. 2003.
[14] H. Liu, R. A. Davidson, D. V. Rosowsky, and J. R. Stedinger, "Negative
Binomial Regression of Electric Power Outages in Hurricanes," J.
Infrastruct. Syst., vol. 11, no. 4, pp. 258-267, Dec. 2005.
[15] Jonnavithula, S., and Billinton, R., "Topological Analysis in Bulk Power
System Reliability Evaluation", IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 12, no. 1,
pp. 456-463, Feb. 1997.
@article{"International Journal of Electrical, Electronic and Communication Sciences:64850", author = "Nahid-Al-Masood and Jubaer Ahmed and Amina Hasan Abedin and S. R. Deeba and Faeza Hafiz and Mahmuda Begum", title = "Reliability Assessment of Bangladesh Power System Using Recursive Algorithm", abstract = "An electric utility-s main concern is to plan, design, operate and maintain its power supply to provide an acceptable level of reliability to its users. This clearly requires that standards of reliability be specified and used in all three sectors of the power system, i.e., generation, transmission and distribution. That is why reliability of a power system is always a major concern to power system planners. This paper presents the reliability analysis of Bangladesh Power System (BPS). Reliability index, loss of load probability (LOLP) of BPS is evaluated using recursive algorithm and considering no de-rated states of generators. BPS has sixty one generators and a total installed capacity of 5275 MW. The maximum demand of BPS is about 5000 MW. The relevant data of the generators and hourly load profiles are collected from the National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) of Bangladesh and reliability index 'LOLP' is assessed for the period of last ten years.
", keywords = "Recursive algorithm, LOLP, forced outage rate, cumulative probability.", volume = "5", number = "12", pages = "1946-4", }
