Long Term Variability of Temperature in Armenia in the Context of Climate Change
The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal
and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of
Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature.
Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and
surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations
of weather conditions have been performed within the National
Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The
study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961-
2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were
applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as
well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find
the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of
temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly
towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in
valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to
1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The
patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s
over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was
influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the
methods employed within the study.
[1] Chatrchyan S (1999) The analyze of meteorological data and possible
scenarios of climate change in Armenia, Climate change issues in
Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:37-49
[2] Hubert P, Carbonne J (1993) “Segmentation des séries annuelles de
débits de grands fleu vesa fricains”. Bulletin de liaison du CIEH 92:3-
10.
[3] Jones P (1988) Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variations:
Recent Trends and an Update to 1987,Journalof Climate Vol. 1:654-660
[4] Jones P ,Wigley T, Wright P (1986) Global Temperature Variations
between 1861 and 1984, Nature, Vol. 322: 430-434
[5] Lee A, Heghinian S (1977) A Shift of the Mean Level in a Sequence of
Independent Normal Random Variables - A Bayesian Approach,
Technometricsvol.19, n°4:503-506.
[6] Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:
245-259.
[7] Melkonyan H (1999) Variability and predictability of climate changes
on the territory of Armenia, Climate change issues in Armenia, A
collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:10-15.
[8] Melkonyan H, Baloyan A (2003) About one approach to the assessment
of climate change on the territory of Armenia, Climate change issues in
Armenia, A collection of articles, 2nd edn, Yerevan:270-276.
[9] Mokhov I, Eliseev A, Semenov B (1999) Possible scenarios of climate
change in Armenia by results of numerical simulation with using of IAP
RAS climate model, Climate change issues in Armenia, A collection of
articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:22-36.
[10] Parker D, Horton E (1999) Global and Regional Climate in 1998,
Weather, Vol. 54:173-184.
[11] Pettitt A (1979) A non - parametric approach to the change-point
problem, Applied Statistics vol.28, n°2:126 – 135.
[12] Scafetta N, West B (2005) Estimated Solar Contribution to the Global
Surface Warming Using the ACRIM TSI Satellite Composite,
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.32: L18713.
[13] Stokes C, Gurney S, Shahgedanova M, Popovnin V (2006) Late 20th
century changes in glacier extent in the Caucasus Mountains,
Russia/Georgia, Journal of Glaciology (52):99-109.
[14] Tayanc M, ulasim, Dogruel M, Karaca M (2008) Climate change in
Turkey for the last half century. Springer Science + Business Media
B.V., Climatic Change (2009) 94:483–502.doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-
9511-0.
[15] Vinnikov K, Grody N (2003) Global Warming Trend of Mean
Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellites, Science, Vol. 302:
269-272.
[16] Von Storch H, Navarra A (1995) Analysis of Climate Variability —
Applications of Statistical Techniques, Springer- Verlag, New York: 334
[17] Zoryan Z (1999) Evaluation of variations of in land air temperature
anomaly (LATA) on territory of the Republic of Armenia, Climate
change issues in Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:16-
21.
[18] Georgia’s Initial National Communication Under The United Nations
Framework Convention On Climate Change, (1999) Tbilisi
[19] Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009),
Tbilisi.
[20] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate change
(2007) The physical science basis. In: Solomon Q, Qin D, Manning M,
Chen Z et al, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the 4th assessment
report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
[21] IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, In:
mccarthy J, Canziani O, Leary N, Dokken D, White K et al,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the
(IPCC),World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations
Environment Programme, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[22] Nersisyan A (1964) Climate in Armenia, Arm. State Hydromet.,
Yerevan.
[23] Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region
(2011), Tbilisi.
[24] The First National Communication of The Republic of Armenia under
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1998),
Yerevan.
[25] The Second National Communication on Climate Change (2010),
"Lusabats" Publishing House, Yerevan.
[26] Climate change issues in Armenia, a collection of articles, First ED
(1999), Yerevan, 373p.
[27] Climate change issues in Armenia, a collection of articles, Second ED
(2003), Yerevan, 353p.
[1] Chatrchyan S (1999) The analyze of meteorological data and possible
scenarios of climate change in Armenia, Climate change issues in
Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:37-49
[2] Hubert P, Carbonne J (1993) “Segmentation des séries annuelles de
débits de grands fleu vesa fricains”. Bulletin de liaison du CIEH 92:3-
10.
[3] Jones P (1988) Hemispheric Surface Air Temperature Variations:
Recent Trends and an Update to 1987,Journalof Climate Vol. 1:654-660
[4] Jones P ,Wigley T, Wright P (1986) Global Temperature Variations
between 1861 and 1984, Nature, Vol. 322: 430-434
[5] Lee A, Heghinian S (1977) A Shift of the Mean Level in a Sequence of
Independent Normal Random Variables - A Bayesian Approach,
Technometricsvol.19, n°4:503-506.
[6] Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:
245-259.
[7] Melkonyan H (1999) Variability and predictability of climate changes
on the territory of Armenia, Climate change issues in Armenia, A
collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:10-15.
[8] Melkonyan H, Baloyan A (2003) About one approach to the assessment
of climate change on the territory of Armenia, Climate change issues in
Armenia, A collection of articles, 2nd edn, Yerevan:270-276.
[9] Mokhov I, Eliseev A, Semenov B (1999) Possible scenarios of climate
change in Armenia by results of numerical simulation with using of IAP
RAS climate model, Climate change issues in Armenia, A collection of
articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:22-36.
[10] Parker D, Horton E (1999) Global and Regional Climate in 1998,
Weather, Vol. 54:173-184.
[11] Pettitt A (1979) A non - parametric approach to the change-point
problem, Applied Statistics vol.28, n°2:126 – 135.
[12] Scafetta N, West B (2005) Estimated Solar Contribution to the Global
Surface Warming Using the ACRIM TSI Satellite Composite,
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol.32: L18713.
[13] Stokes C, Gurney S, Shahgedanova M, Popovnin V (2006) Late 20th
century changes in glacier extent in the Caucasus Mountains,
Russia/Georgia, Journal of Glaciology (52):99-109.
[14] Tayanc M, ulasim, Dogruel M, Karaca M (2008) Climate change in
Turkey for the last half century. Springer Science + Business Media
B.V., Climatic Change (2009) 94:483–502.doi: 10.1007/s10584-008-
9511-0.
[15] Vinnikov K, Grody N (2003) Global Warming Trend of Mean
Tropospheric Temperature Observed by Satellites, Science, Vol. 302:
269-272.
[16] Von Storch H, Navarra A (1995) Analysis of Climate Variability —
Applications of Statistical Techniques, Springer- Verlag, New York: 334
[17] Zoryan Z (1999) Evaluation of variations of in land air temperature
anomaly (LATA) on territory of the Republic of Armenia, Climate
change issues in Armenia, A collection of articles, 1st edn., Yerevan:16-
21.
[18] Georgia’s Initial National Communication Under The United Nations
Framework Convention On Climate Change, (1999) Tbilisi
[19] Georgia’s Second National Communication to the UNFCCC (2009),
Tbilisi.
[20] IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Climate change
(2007) The physical science basis. In: Solomon Q, Qin D, Manning M,
Chen Z et al, Contribution of Working Group 1 to the 4th assessment
report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge.
[21] IPCC, Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, In:
mccarthy J, Canziani O, Leary N, Dokken D, White K et al,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the
(IPCC),World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations
Environment Programme, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[22] Nersisyan A (1964) Climate in Armenia, Arm. State Hydromet.,
Yerevan.
[23] Regional Climate Change Impacts Study for the South Caucasus Region
(2011), Tbilisi.
[24] The First National Communication of The Republic of Armenia under
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1998),
Yerevan.
[25] The Second National Communication on Climate Change (2010),
"Lusabats" Publishing House, Yerevan.
[26] Climate change issues in Armenia, a collection of articles, First ED
(1999), Yerevan, 373p.
[27] Climate change issues in Armenia, a collection of articles, Second ED
(2003), Yerevan, 353p.
@article{"International Journal of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences:71698", author = "Hrachuhi Galstyan and Lucian Sfîcă and Pavel Ichim", title = "Long Term Variability of Temperature in Armenia in the Context of Climate Change", abstract = "The purpose of this study is to analyze the temporal
and spatial variability of thermal conditions in the Republic of
Armenia. The paper describes annual fluctuations in air temperature.
Research has been focused on case study region of Armenia and
surrounding areas, where long–term measurements and observations
of weather conditions have been performed within the National
Meteorological Service of Armenia and its surrounding areas. The
study contains yearly air temperature data recorded between 1961-
2012. Mann-Kendal test and the autocorrelation function were
applied to detect the change trend of annual mean temperature, as
well as other parametric and non-parametric tests searching to find
the presence of some breaks in the long term evolution of
temperature. The analysis of all records reveals a tendency mostly
towards warmer years, with increased temperatures especially in
valleys and inner basins. The maximum temperature increase is up to
1,5°C. Negative results have not been observed in Armenia. The
patterns of temperature change have been observed since the 1990’s
over much of the Armenian territory. The climate in Armenia was
influenced by global change in the last 2 decades, as results from the
methods employed within the study.", keywords = "Air temperature, long-term variability, trend, climate
change.", volume = "10", number = "1", pages = "19-7", }
