Assessing drought Vulnerability of Bulgarian Agriculture through Model Simulations
This study assesses the vulnerability of Bulgarian
agriculture to drought using the WINISAREG model and seasonal
standard precipitation index SPI(2) for the period 1951-2004. This
model was previously validated for maize on soils of different water
holding capacity (TAW) in various locations. Simulations are
performed for Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Sofia. Results relative to
Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (180 mm m-1) net irrigation
requirements (NIRs) range 0-40 mm in wet years and 350-380 mm in
dry years. In soils of small TAW (116 mm m-1), NIRs reach 440 mm
in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia are about 80 mm smaller. Rainfed
maize is associated with great yield variability (29%91%) were found for seasonal agricultural drought relating the SPI
(2) for “July-Aug" with the simulated RYD of rainfed maize while in
Stara Zagora and Sofia the relationships are less accurate (R2>71%).
When rainfed maize is grown on soils of large TAW economical
losses are produced when high peak season SPI (2) < -0.50 in
Plovdiv/Stara Zagora and SPI (2) < -0.90 in Sofia. The
corresponding NIR thresholds were identified.
[1] "Understanding and defining drought". National Drought Mitigation
Center 2006 [cited August 7 2009]. Available from
http://drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm
[2] L. S. Pereira, I. Cordery, and I. Iacovides, Coping with water scarcity.
Addressing the challenges. Springer, Dordrecht, 2009, p. 382.
[3] K. Dow, "News coverage of drought impacts and vulnerability in the US
Carolinas, 1998-2007". Nat Hazards 54, 2010, pp. 497-518. DOI
10.1007/s11069-009-9482-0.
[4] P. Domonkos, S. Szalai, and J. Zoboki, "Analysis of drought severity
using PDSI and SPI indeces", Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian
Meteorological Service, vol. 106, no. 2, 2001, pp. 93-107.
[5] P. Hlavinka, M. Trnka, D. Semeradova, M. Dubrovsky, Z. Zalud, and
M. Mozny, "Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech
Republic", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 149, 2009, pp.
431 - 442.
[6] N. Slavov, E. Koleva, and V. Alexandrov, "The climate of drought in
Bulgaria", in Drought in Bulgaria: a contemporary analog for climate
change, G. G. Knight, I. Raev, M. Staneva (eds). Aldershot, UK:
Ashgate Publishing Limited, 2004, pp 39-52, (in Bulgarian).
[7] E. Koleva, and V. Alexandrov, "Drought in Bulgarian low regions
during the 20th century", Ther. Appl. Climatol., vol. 92, 2008, pp. 113-
120, DOI 10.1007/s00704-007-0297-1
[8] E. E. Moreira, A. A. Paulo, L. S. Pereira, J. T. Mexia, "Analysis of SPI
drought class transitions using loglinear models", J Hydrology, 331,
2006, pp. 349-359.
[9] L. S. Pereira, J. T. Mexia, and C. A. L. Pires, Eds. Gestao do Risco em
Secas. Metodos, tecnologias e desafios. Ed. Colibri and CEER, Lisbon,
2010, p. 344.
[10] M. Vancloster, P. Viane, J. Diels, and K. Christiaens, WAVE model for
simulating water and agrochemicals in the soil and vadose
environment, Reference&user-s manual, Institute for Land and Water
Management, KU leuven, Belgium, 1994.
[11] C. A. Jones, and J. R. Kiniry, CERES-Maize a simulation model of
Maize Growth and Development. Texas A&M University Press, College
Station, 1986.
[12] B. Gabrielle, S. Menasseri, and S. Houot, "Analysis and field-evaluation
of the Ceres models water balance component", Soil Science Society
America Journal, vol. 59, 1995, pp. 1403-1412.
[13] B. Gabrielle, and L. Kengni, "Analysis and field-evaluation of the
CERES models- soil components: Nitrogen transfer and
transformation", Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., vol. 60, 1996, pp. 142-149.
[14] J. L. Teixeira, and L. S. Pereira, "ISAREG, an irrigation scheduling
simulation model", in Crop Water Models, Special issue of ICID
Bulletin, vol. 41, no. 2, L. S. Pereira, A. Perrier, M. Ait Kadi, and Kabat
(guest editors), 1992, pp. 29-48
[15] L. S. Pereira, P. R. Teodoro, P. N. Rodrigues, and J. L. Teixeira,
"Irrigation scheduling simulation: the model ISAREG", in Tools for
Drought Mitigation in Mediterranean Regions, G. Rossi, A.
Cancelliere, L. S. Pereira, T. Oweis, M. Shatanawi, A. Zairi (Eds.).
Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2003, pp. 161-180.
[16] V. Aleksandrov, G. Georgiev, and N. Slavov, "CERES-maize model as
an approach for simulation of maize growth, development and yield",
Bulgarian Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. 4, no. 3, 1993,
pp. 164-169.
[17] Z. Popova, M. Vancloster, J. Diels and J. Feyen, "Assessment of
drought impact on soil water balance and agricultural potential of
Bulgaria using simulation model WAVE", in 1995 Proceedings of the
EWRA 95 Symposium, Nicosia (Cyprus), pp.87-92.
[18] Z. Popova, M. Kercheva, B. Leviel, and B. Gabrielle, "Consequence of
heavy precipitation and droughts in Bulgarian agroecosystems and ways
of mitigating their impacts", in 2001 Proceedings of the 19th European
Regional Conference of ICID, Burno-Prague paper Ôäû132 (CD-ROM).
[19] Z. Popova, and M. Kercheva, "Optimization of strategies to mitigate
biological droughts consequences under wheat and maize in Bulgaria",
Journal of Balkan ecology, vol. 5, no. 1, 2002, pp.48-58.
[20] Z. Popova, and M. Kercheva, "Ceres model application for increasing
preparedness to climate variability in agricultural planning-calibration
and validation test", Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Elsevier
Science Publisher PartsA/B/C vol. 30, no. 1-3, 2005, pp. 125-133.
[21] Z. Popova, and L. S. Pereira, "Irrigation scheduling for furrow irrigated
maize under climate uncertainties in the Thrace plain, Bulgaria",
Journal of Biosystem engineering, vol. 99, no. 4, 2008, pp. 587-597.
ISSN: 15375110 DOI: 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2007.12.005 SW-Soil
and Water
[22] M. Kercheva, Information basis for modeling components of soil water
balance and assessment of agroecological risks. PhD Thesis.
"N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 2004, p.143 (in
Bulgarian).
[23] E. Doneva, Characteristics of soil hydraulic properties and their
influence on water balance of cropped soil. Ph.D.-thesis University of
Civil Engineering, Sofia, (in Bulgarian), 1976.
[24] I. Varlev, N. Kolev, and I. Kirkova, "Yield-water relationships and their
changes during individual climatic years", in Proceedings of 17th
Europ. Reg. Conf. of ICID, Varna, vol. 1, 1994, pp. 351 - 360.
[25] S. Eneva, Irrigation and irrigation effect on field crops. Problems of
crop production science and practice in Bulgaria. Agricultural
University of Plovdiv, 1997, p. 287.
[26] Z. Popova, S. Eneva, and L. S. Pereira, "Model validation, crop
coefficients and yield response factors for irrigation scheduling based on
long-term experiments", Biosystems Engineering, vol. 95, no. 1, 2006,
pp. 139-149.
[27] Z. Popova and L. S. Pereira, "Model validation for maize irrigation
scheduling in Plovdiv region", in 2010 BALWOIS Conference 2010
"Water observation and information system for decision making", CDROM
paper 648, Ohrid.
[28] I. Varlev and Z. Popova, Water-Evapotranspiration-Yield. Irrig. and
Drain. Inst., Sofia, 1999, p. 143, (in Bulgarian).
[29] D. Stoichev, Ecological aspects of anthropogenic loading of soils,
Synthesis of dissertation thesis for the scientific degree "Doctor of
agricultural sciences", "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia,
1997, p. 52, (in Bulgarian).
[30] P. Alexandrova, Microclimate of maize under irrigation and rainfed
conditions. Synthesis of dissertation PhD thesis. "N.Poushkarov"
Institute of soil science, 1990, p. 32, (in Bulgarian).
[31] R. Rafailov (1995). (1998). Annual reports of ISS N.Poushkarov, Sofia,
unpublished.
[32] J. Jivkov, "Role of the crop and irrigation on intensive use of irrigated
area", Papers of Institute of Hydrotechniques and Melioration, vol.
XXIV, 1994, pp. 351-357.
[33] B. Mladenova, and I. Varlev, "Sensitivity of maize under water deficit
during the different fazes of vegetation in Sofia field", in Proc. Intern.
Conf. 50-Years Institute of Soil Science "Nikola Poushkarov", Sofia,
1997.
[34] M. Moteva, Parameters of irrigation scheduling of maize for grain
under irrigation through a furrow on chromic luvisol soil. PhD Thesis
"N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 2006, p.118 (in
Bulgarian).
[35] R. G. Allen, L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith, Crop
Evapotranspiration - Guidelines for Computing Crop Water
Requirements. Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome, 1998.
[36] Z. Popova, and L. S. Pereira, "Modeling for maize irrigation scheduling
using long term experimental data from Plovdiv region, Bulgaria",
Agricultural Water Management, vol. 98, no. 4, 2011, pp. 675-683.
doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2010.11.009
[37] Z. Popova, M. Ivanova, P. Alexandrova, V. Alexandrov, K. Doneva, and
L. S. Pereira, "Impact of drought on maize irrigation and productivity in
Plovdiv region", in 2011 Transactions of National conference with
international participation "100 years soil science in Bulgaria", Sofia,
Vol.1, pp.394-399
[38] P. Stoyanov, Agroecological potential of maize cultivated on typical for
its production soils in the conditions in Bulgaria. Habilitation paper for
the scientific degree "Professor", "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil
science, Sofia, 2008, (in Bulgarian).
[39] J. Doorenbos, and W. O. Pruitt, Crop Water Requirements. FAO
Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24. FAO, Rome, Italy, 1977, p. 144.
[40] J. Doorenbos, and A. H. Kassam, Yield Response to Water. Irrigation
and Drainage Paper 33, FAO, Rome, Italy, 1979, p. 193.
[41] M. Ivanova, and Z. Popova, "Model validation and crop coefficients for
maize irrigation scheduling based on field experiments in Sofia region",
in 2011 Transactions of National conference with international
participation "100 years soil science in Bulgaria", Sofia, vol. 2,
pp.542-548, (in Bulgarian).
[1] "Understanding and defining drought". National Drought Mitigation
Center 2006 [cited August 7 2009]. Available from
http://drought.unl.edu/whatis/concept.htm
[2] L. S. Pereira, I. Cordery, and I. Iacovides, Coping with water scarcity.
Addressing the challenges. Springer, Dordrecht, 2009, p. 382.
[3] K. Dow, "News coverage of drought impacts and vulnerability in the US
Carolinas, 1998-2007". Nat Hazards 54, 2010, pp. 497-518. DOI
10.1007/s11069-009-9482-0.
[4] P. Domonkos, S. Szalai, and J. Zoboki, "Analysis of drought severity
using PDSI and SPI indeces", Quarterly Journal of the Hungarian
Meteorological Service, vol. 106, no. 2, 2001, pp. 93-107.
[5] P. Hlavinka, M. Trnka, D. Semeradova, M. Dubrovsky, Z. Zalud, and
M. Mozny, "Effect of drought on yield variability of key crops in Czech
Republic", Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, vol. 149, 2009, pp.
431 - 442.
[6] N. Slavov, E. Koleva, and V. Alexandrov, "The climate of drought in
Bulgaria", in Drought in Bulgaria: a contemporary analog for climate
change, G. G. Knight, I. Raev, M. Staneva (eds). Aldershot, UK:
Ashgate Publishing Limited, 2004, pp 39-52, (in Bulgarian).
[7] E. Koleva, and V. Alexandrov, "Drought in Bulgarian low regions
during the 20th century", Ther. Appl. Climatol., vol. 92, 2008, pp. 113-
120, DOI 10.1007/s00704-007-0297-1
[8] E. E. Moreira, A. A. Paulo, L. S. Pereira, J. T. Mexia, "Analysis of SPI
drought class transitions using loglinear models", J Hydrology, 331,
2006, pp. 349-359.
[9] L. S. Pereira, J. T. Mexia, and C. A. L. Pires, Eds. Gestao do Risco em
Secas. Metodos, tecnologias e desafios. Ed. Colibri and CEER, Lisbon,
2010, p. 344.
[10] M. Vancloster, P. Viane, J. Diels, and K. Christiaens, WAVE model for
simulating water and agrochemicals in the soil and vadose
environment, Reference&user-s manual, Institute for Land and Water
Management, KU leuven, Belgium, 1994.
[11] C. A. Jones, and J. R. Kiniry, CERES-Maize a simulation model of
Maize Growth and Development. Texas A&M University Press, College
Station, 1986.
[12] B. Gabrielle, S. Menasseri, and S. Houot, "Analysis and field-evaluation
of the Ceres models water balance component", Soil Science Society
America Journal, vol. 59, 1995, pp. 1403-1412.
[13] B. Gabrielle, and L. Kengni, "Analysis and field-evaluation of the
CERES models- soil components: Nitrogen transfer and
transformation", Soil Sci. Soc. Am. J., vol. 60, 1996, pp. 142-149.
[14] J. L. Teixeira, and L. S. Pereira, "ISAREG, an irrigation scheduling
simulation model", in Crop Water Models, Special issue of ICID
Bulletin, vol. 41, no. 2, L. S. Pereira, A. Perrier, M. Ait Kadi, and Kabat
(guest editors), 1992, pp. 29-48
[15] L. S. Pereira, P. R. Teodoro, P. N. Rodrigues, and J. L. Teixeira,
"Irrigation scheduling simulation: the model ISAREG", in Tools for
Drought Mitigation in Mediterranean Regions, G. Rossi, A.
Cancelliere, L. S. Pereira, T. Oweis, M. Shatanawi, A. Zairi (Eds.).
Kluwer, Dordrecht, 2003, pp. 161-180.
[16] V. Aleksandrov, G. Georgiev, and N. Slavov, "CERES-maize model as
an approach for simulation of maize growth, development and yield",
Bulgarian Journal of Meteorology and Hydrology, vol. 4, no. 3, 1993,
pp. 164-169.
[17] Z. Popova, M. Vancloster, J. Diels and J. Feyen, "Assessment of
drought impact on soil water balance and agricultural potential of
Bulgaria using simulation model WAVE", in 1995 Proceedings of the
EWRA 95 Symposium, Nicosia (Cyprus), pp.87-92.
[18] Z. Popova, M. Kercheva, B. Leviel, and B. Gabrielle, "Consequence of
heavy precipitation and droughts in Bulgarian agroecosystems and ways
of mitigating their impacts", in 2001 Proceedings of the 19th European
Regional Conference of ICID, Burno-Prague paper Ôäû132 (CD-ROM).
[19] Z. Popova, and M. Kercheva, "Optimization of strategies to mitigate
biological droughts consequences under wheat and maize in Bulgaria",
Journal of Balkan ecology, vol. 5, no. 1, 2002, pp.48-58.
[20] Z. Popova, and M. Kercheva, "Ceres model application for increasing
preparedness to climate variability in agricultural planning-calibration
and validation test", Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Elsevier
Science Publisher PartsA/B/C vol. 30, no. 1-3, 2005, pp. 125-133.
[21] Z. Popova, and L. S. Pereira, "Irrigation scheduling for furrow irrigated
maize under climate uncertainties in the Thrace plain, Bulgaria",
Journal of Biosystem engineering, vol. 99, no. 4, 2008, pp. 587-597.
ISSN: 15375110 DOI: 10.1016/j.biosystemseng.2007.12.005 SW-Soil
and Water
[22] M. Kercheva, Information basis for modeling components of soil water
balance and assessment of agroecological risks. PhD Thesis.
"N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 2004, p.143 (in
Bulgarian).
[23] E. Doneva, Characteristics of soil hydraulic properties and their
influence on water balance of cropped soil. Ph.D.-thesis University of
Civil Engineering, Sofia, (in Bulgarian), 1976.
[24] I. Varlev, N. Kolev, and I. Kirkova, "Yield-water relationships and their
changes during individual climatic years", in Proceedings of 17th
Europ. Reg. Conf. of ICID, Varna, vol. 1, 1994, pp. 351 - 360.
[25] S. Eneva, Irrigation and irrigation effect on field crops. Problems of
crop production science and practice in Bulgaria. Agricultural
University of Plovdiv, 1997, p. 287.
[26] Z. Popova, S. Eneva, and L. S. Pereira, "Model validation, crop
coefficients and yield response factors for irrigation scheduling based on
long-term experiments", Biosystems Engineering, vol. 95, no. 1, 2006,
pp. 139-149.
[27] Z. Popova and L. S. Pereira, "Model validation for maize irrigation
scheduling in Plovdiv region", in 2010 BALWOIS Conference 2010
"Water observation and information system for decision making", CDROM
paper 648, Ohrid.
[28] I. Varlev and Z. Popova, Water-Evapotranspiration-Yield. Irrig. and
Drain. Inst., Sofia, 1999, p. 143, (in Bulgarian).
[29] D. Stoichev, Ecological aspects of anthropogenic loading of soils,
Synthesis of dissertation thesis for the scientific degree "Doctor of
agricultural sciences", "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia,
1997, p. 52, (in Bulgarian).
[30] P. Alexandrova, Microclimate of maize under irrigation and rainfed
conditions. Synthesis of dissertation PhD thesis. "N.Poushkarov"
Institute of soil science, 1990, p. 32, (in Bulgarian).
[31] R. Rafailov (1995). (1998). Annual reports of ISS N.Poushkarov, Sofia,
unpublished.
[32] J. Jivkov, "Role of the crop and irrigation on intensive use of irrigated
area", Papers of Institute of Hydrotechniques and Melioration, vol.
XXIV, 1994, pp. 351-357.
[33] B. Mladenova, and I. Varlev, "Sensitivity of maize under water deficit
during the different fazes of vegetation in Sofia field", in Proc. Intern.
Conf. 50-Years Institute of Soil Science "Nikola Poushkarov", Sofia,
1997.
[34] M. Moteva, Parameters of irrigation scheduling of maize for grain
under irrigation through a furrow on chromic luvisol soil. PhD Thesis
"N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil science, Sofia, 2006, p.118 (in
Bulgarian).
[35] R. G. Allen, L. S. Pereira, D. Raes, and M. Smith, Crop
Evapotranspiration - Guidelines for Computing Crop Water
Requirements. Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, FAO, Rome, 1998.
[36] Z. Popova, and L. S. Pereira, "Modeling for maize irrigation scheduling
using long term experimental data from Plovdiv region, Bulgaria",
Agricultural Water Management, vol. 98, no. 4, 2011, pp. 675-683.
doi:10.1016/j.agwat.2010.11.009
[37] Z. Popova, M. Ivanova, P. Alexandrova, V. Alexandrov, K. Doneva, and
L. S. Pereira, "Impact of drought on maize irrigation and productivity in
Plovdiv region", in 2011 Transactions of National conference with
international participation "100 years soil science in Bulgaria", Sofia,
Vol.1, pp.394-399
[38] P. Stoyanov, Agroecological potential of maize cultivated on typical for
its production soils in the conditions in Bulgaria. Habilitation paper for
the scientific degree "Professor", "N.Poushkarov" Institute of soil
science, Sofia, 2008, (in Bulgarian).
[39] J. Doorenbos, and W. O. Pruitt, Crop Water Requirements. FAO
Irrigation and Drainage Paper 24. FAO, Rome, Italy, 1977, p. 144.
[40] J. Doorenbos, and A. H. Kassam, Yield Response to Water. Irrigation
and Drainage Paper 33, FAO, Rome, Italy, 1979, p. 193.
[41] M. Ivanova, and Z. Popova, "Model validation and crop coefficients for
maize irrigation scheduling based on field experiments in Sofia region",
in 2011 Transactions of National conference with international
participation "100 years soil science in Bulgaria", Sofia, vol. 2,
pp.542-548, (in Bulgarian).
@article{"International Journal of Biological, Life and Agricultural Sciences:54369", author = "Z. Popova and L. S. Pereira and М. Ivanova and P. Alexandrova and K. Doneva and V. Alexandrov and M. Kercheva", title = "Assessing drought Vulnerability of Bulgarian Agriculture through Model Simulations", abstract = "This study assesses the vulnerability of Bulgarian
agriculture to drought using the WINISAREG model and seasonal
standard precipitation index SPI(2) for the period 1951-2004. This
model was previously validated for maize on soils of different water
holding capacity (TAW) in various locations. Simulations are
performed for Plovdiv, Stara Zagora and Sofia. Results relative to
Plovdiv show that in soils of large TAW (180 mm m-1) net irrigation
requirements (NIRs) range 0-40 mm in wet years and 350-380 mm in
dry years. In soils of small TAW (116 mm m-1), NIRs reach 440 mm
in the very dry year. NIRs in Sofia are about 80 mm smaller. Rainfed
maize is associated with great yield variability (29%", keywords = "Drought vulnerability, ISAREG simulation model,
South Bulgaria, SPI-index", volume = "5", number = "11", pages = "685-14", }
