Abstract: Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria namely, the Mean Absolute Error and Root Mean Square Error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data are used to train the models. The results of this study show that SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hour ahead electricity load forecasting.
Abstract: Fabric as the first and most common layer that is in permanent contact with human skin is a very good interface to provide coverage, as well as heat and cold insulation. Phase change materials (PCMs) are organic and inorganic compounds which have the capability of absorbing and releasing noticeable amounts of latent heat during phase transitions between solid and liquid phases at a low temperature range. PCMs come across phase changes (liquid-solid and solid-liquid transitions) during absorbing and releasing thermal heat; so, in order to use them for a long time, they should have been encapsulated in polymeric shells, so-called microcapsules. Microencapsulation and nanoencapsulation methods have been developed in order to reduce the reactivity of a PCM with outside environment, promoting the ease of handling, decreasing the diffusion and evaporation rates. Methods of incorporation of PCMs in textiles such as electrospinning and determining thermal properties had been summarized. Paraffin waxes catch a lot of attention due to their high thermal storage density, repeatability of phase change, thermal stability, small volume change during phase transition, chemical stability, non-toxicity, non-flammability, non-corrosive and low cost and they seem to play a key role in confronting with climate change and global warming. In this article, we aimed to review the researches concentrating on the characteristics of PCMs and new materials and methods of microencapsulation.
Abstract: Kabul is the heart of political, commercial, cultural, educational and social life in Afghanistan and the fifth fastest growing city in the world. Minimum income inclined most of Kabul residents to use public transport, especially buses, although there is no proper bus system, beside that there is no proper fare exist in Kabul city Due to wars. From 1992 to 2001 during civil wars, Kabul suffered damage and destruction of its transportation facilities including pavements, sidewalks, traffic circles, drainage systems, traffic signs and signals, trolleybuses and almost all of the public transport system (e.g. Millie bus). This research is mainly focused on Kabul city’s transportation system. In this research, the data used have been gathered by Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) in 2008 and this data will be used to find demand and fare structure, additionally a survey was done in 2016 to find satisfaction level of Kabul residents for fare structure. Aim of this research is to observe the demand for Large Buses, compare to the actual supply from the government, analyze the current fare structure and compare it with the proposed fare (distance based fare) structure which has already been analyzed. Outcome of this research shows that the demand of Kabul city residents for the public transport (Large Buses) exceeds from the current supply, so that current public transportation (Large Buses) is not sufficient to serve public transport in Kabul city, worth to be mentioned, that in order to overcome this problem, there is no need to build new roads or exclusive way for buses. This research proposes government to change the fare from fixed fare to distance based fare, invest on public transportation and increase the number of large buses so that the current demand for public transport is met.
Abstract: The thermal performance of a solar water heating with
1.00 m2 flat plate collectors in Cascavel - PR, is which presented in
this article, paper presents the solution to leverage the marketing of
solar heating systems through detailed constituent materials of the
solar collector studies, these abundant materials in construction, such
as expanded polyethylene, PVC, aluminum and glass tubes, mixing
them with new materials to minimize loss of efficiency while
decreasing its cost. The system was tested during months and the
collector obtained maximum recorded temperature of outlet fluid of
55°C, while the maximum temperature of the water at the bottom of
the hot water tank was 35°C. The average daily energy collected was
19.6 MJ/d; the energy supplied by the solar plate was 16.2 MJ/d; the
loss in the feed pipe was 3.2 MJ/d; the solar fraction was 32.2%, the
efficiency of the collector was 45.6% and the efficiency of the system
was 37.8%.
Abstract: Fuzzy inference method based approach to the
forming of modular intellectual system of assessment the quality of
communication services is proposed. Developed under this approach
the basic fuzzy estimation model takes into account the
recommendations of the International Telecommunication Union in
respect of the operation of packet switching networks based on IPprotocol.
To implement the main features and functions of the fuzzy
control system of quality telecommunication services it is used
multilayer feedforward neural network.
Abstract: In this paper, the elasto-plastic and cyclic torsion of a shaft is studied using a finite element method. The Prager kinematic hardening theory of plasticity with the Ramberg and Osgood stress-strain equation is used to evaluate the cyclic loading behavior of the shaft under the torsional loading. The material of shaft is assumed to follow the non-linear strain hardening property based on the Prager model. The finite element method with C1 continuity is developed and used for solution of the governing equations of the problem. The successive substitution iterative method is used to calculate the distribution of stresses and plastic strains in the shaft due to cyclic loads. The shear stress, effective stress, residual stress and elastic and plastic shear strain distribution are presented in the numerical results.
Abstract: The study investigated the educational implications
that can be derived from the work of a variety of celebrated figures
such as Piaget, Vygotsky, and Bruner that will be helpful in the field
of language learning. However, the writer believed these views were
previously expressed not full–fledged by Comenius who has been
described by Howatt (1984) as a genius–the one that the history of
language teaching can claim. And we owe to him more than anyone.
Abstract: Enterprise Architecture (EA) is a framework for description, coordination and alignment of all activities across the organization in order to achieve strategic goals using ICT enablers. A number of EA-compatible frameworks have been developed. We, in this paper, mainly focus on Federal Enterprise Architecture Framework (FEAF) since its reference models are plentiful. Among these models we are interested here in its business reference model (BRM). The test process is one important subject of an EA project which is to somewhat overlooked. This lack of attention may cause drawbacks or even failure of an enterprise architecture project. To address this issue we intend to use International Software Testing Qualification Board (ISTQB) framework and standard test suites to present a method to improve EA testing process. The main challenge is how to communicate between the concepts of EA and ISTQB. In this paper, we propose a method for integrating these concepts.
Abstract: The hybridization of artificial immune system with
cellular automata (CA-AIS) is a novel method. In this hybrid model,
the cellular automaton within each cell deploys the artificial immune
system algorithm under optimization context in order to increase its
fitness by using its neighbor-s efforts. The hybrid model CA-AIS is
introduced to fix the standard artificial immune system-s weaknesses.
The credibility of the proposed approach is evaluated by simulations
and it shows that the proposed approach achieves better results
compared to standard artificial immune system.
Abstract: Persian (Farsi) script is totally cursive and each character is written in several different forms depending on its former and later characters in the word. These complexities make automatic handwriting recognition of Persian a very hard problem and there are few contributions trying to work it out. This paper presents a novel practical approach to online recognition of Persian handwriting which is based on representation of inputs and patterns with very simple visual features and comparison of these simple terms. This recognition approach is tested over a set of Persian words and the results have been quite acceptable when the possible words where unknown and they were almost all correct in cases that the words where chosen from a prespecified list.
Abstract: We investigated a modified thermal evaporation
method in the growth process of ZnO nanowires. ZnO nanowires
were fabricated on p-type silicon substrates without using a metal
catalyst. A simple horizontal double-tube system along with
chemical vapor diffusion of the precursor was used to grow the ZnO
nanowires. The substrates were placed in different temperature
zones, and ZnO nanowires with different diameters were obtained for
the different substrate temperatures. In addition to the nanowires,
ZnO microdiscs with different diameters were obtained on another
substrate, which was placed at a lower temperature than the other
substrates. The optical properties and crystalline quality of the ZnO
nanowires and microdiscs were characterized by room temperature
photoluminescence (PL) and Raman spectrometers. The PL and
Raman studies demonstrated that the ZnO nanowires and microdiscs
grown using such set-up had good crystallinity with excellent optical
properties. Rectifying behavior of ZnO/Si heterostructures was
characterized by a simple DC circuit.
Abstract: Fuzzy C-means Clustering algorithm (FCM) is a
method that is frequently used in pattern recognition. It has the
advantage of giving good modeling results in many cases, although,
it is not capable of specifying the number of clusters by itself. In
FCM algorithm most researchers fix weighting exponent (m) to a
conventional value of 2 which might not be the appropriate for all
applications. Consequently, the main objective of this paper is to use
the subtractive clustering algorithm to provide the optimal number of
clusters needed by FCM algorithm by optimizing the parameters of
the subtractive clustering algorithm by an iterative search approach
and then to find an optimal weighting exponent (m) for the FCM
algorithm. In order to get an optimal number of clusters, the iterative
search approach is used to find the optimal single-output Sugenotype
Fuzzy Inference System (FIS) model by optimizing the
parameters of the subtractive clustering algorithm that give minimum
least square error between the actual data and the Sugeno fuzzy
model. Once the number of clusters is optimized, then two
approaches are proposed to optimize the weighting exponent (m) in
the FCM algorithm, namely, the iterative search approach and the
genetic algorithms. The above mentioned approach is tested on the
generated data from the original function and optimal fuzzy models
are obtained with minimum error between the real data and the
obtained fuzzy models.
Abstract: Locating the critical slip surface with the minimum factor of safety for a rock slope is a difficult problem. In recent years, some modern global optimization methods have been developed with success in treating various types of problems, but very few of such methods have been applied to rock mechanical problems. In this paper, use of hybrid model based on artificial immune system and cellular learning automata is proposed. The results show that the algorithm is an effective and efficient optimization method with a high level of confidence rate.
Abstract: Packing problems arise in a wide variety of application
areas. The basic problem is that of determining an efficient arrangement
of different objects in a region without any overlap and
with minimal wasted gap between shapes. This paper presents a
novel population based approach for optimizing arrangement of irregular
shapes. In this approach, each shape is coded as an agent and
the agents' reproductions and grouping policies results in arrangements
of the objects in positions with least wasted area between
them. The approach is implemented in an application for cutting
sheets and test results on several problems from literature are presented.
Abstract: This experiment was conducted to investigate the
effect of different levels of dietary chromium yeast (Cr-yeast) on
thigh meat quality of broiler chicks reared under heat stress
condition. Two hundred and forty Ross male chickens in heat stress
condition (33±3°C) were allocated to five treatments in a completely
randomized design. Treatments were supplemented with 0 (control),
200, 400, 800 and 1200 μg kg-1 Cr in the form of Cr yeast. Twelve
chicks from each treatment were slaughtered at 42 d, to evaluate
moisture, protein, lipid, pH and lipid oxidation of thigh meat.
Protein, moisture, lipid and pH of thigh meat were not affected by
supplemental Cr. Thigh meat lipid tended to decrease in broilers
received 1200 μg kg-1. Storage time increased lipid oxidation of
meat (P
Abstract: In this study acoustic emission (AE) signals obtained during deformation and fracture of two types of ferrite-martensite dual phase steels (DPS) specimens have been analyzed in frequency domain. For this reason two low carbon steels with various amounts of carbon were chosen, and intercritically heat treated. In the introduced method, identifying the mechanisms of failure in the various phases of DPS is done. For this aim, AE monitoring has been used during tensile test of several DPS with various volume fraction of the martensite (VM) and attempted to relate the AE signals and failure mechanisms in these steels. Different signals, which referred to 2-3 micro-mechanisms of failure due to amount of carbon and also VM have been seen. By Fast Fourier Transformation (FFT) of signals in distinct locations, an excellent relationship between peak frequencies in these areas and micro-mechanisms of failure were seen. The results were verified by microscopic observations (SEM).
Abstract: It is crucial to quantitatively evaluate the treatment of
epilepsy patients. This study was undertaken to test the hypothesis that
compared to the healthy control subjects, the epilepsy patients have
abnormal resting-state connectivity. In this study, we used the
imaginary part of coherency to measure the resting-state connectivity.
The analysis results shown that compared to the healthy control
subjects, epilepsy patients tend to have abnormal rhythm brain
connectivity over their epileptic focus.
Abstract: The successful implementation of Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA) is not confined to Information Technology systems and required changes of the whole enterprise. In order to adapt IT and business, the enterprise requires adequate and measurable methods. The adoption of SOA creates new problem with regard to measuring and analysis the performance. In fact the enterprise should investigate to what extent the development of services will increase the value of business. It is required for every business to measure the extent of SOA adaptation with the goals of enterprise. Moreover, precise performance metrics and their combination with the advanced evaluation methodologies as a solution should be defined. The aim of this paper is to present a systematic methodology for designing a measurement system at the technical and business levels, so that: (1) it will determine measurement metrics precisely (2) the results will be analysed by mapping identified metrics to the measurement tools.
Abstract: Measurement of the COD of a spent caustic solution involves firstly digestion of a test sample with dichromate solution and secondly measurement of dichromate remained by titration by ferrous ammonium sulfate [FAS] to an end point. In this paper we study by a potentiometric end point with Ag/AgCl reference electrode and gold rode electrode. The potentiometric end point is sharp and easily identified especially for the samples with high turbidity and color that other methods such as colorimetric in this type of sample do not result in high precision. Because interim of titration responds quickly to potential changes within the [Cr+6/Cr+3& Fe+2/Fe+3] solution producing stable readings that is lead to accurate COD measurement. Finally results are compared with data determined using colorimetric method for standard samples. It is shown that the potentiometric end point titration with gold rode electrode can be used with equal or better facility
Abstract: White rust, caused by Albugo candida, is the most
destructive foliar diseases of persian cress, Lepidium sativum in Iran.
Application of fungicide is the most common method for the disease
control. However, regarding the problems created by synthetic
pesticides application, environmentally safe methods are needed to
replace chemical pesticides. In this study, the antifungal activity of
plant natural extracts was investigated for their ability to inhibit
zoospore release from sporangia of A. candida. The crude extract of
46 plants was obtained using methanol. The inhibitory effect of the
extracts was examined by mixing the plant extracts with a
zoosporangial suspension of A. candida (1×106 spore/ml) at three
concentrations, 250, 100 and 50 ppm. The experiments were
conducted in a completely randomized design, with three replicates.
The results of the experiment showed that three out of 46 plants
species, including, Rhus coriaria, Anagallis arvensis and Mespilus
germanica were completely inhibit zoospore release from
zoosporangia of Albugo candida at concentration of 50 ppm.