Abstract: Innovations and innovative activity get the increasing
value for successful financial and economic activity of the countries
and regions. The level of innovative sphere development determines
place of a country or a region in world economy and forms a basis of
steady economic growth. This article is devoted to different aspects
of organization of the national economic safety in the conditions of
innovative development, its problems, risks and threats. Economy
can be considered as aspiring for transition to innovative way only
with finding of economic safety: financial independence, power
stability and technological progress. There are statistical indicators,
defining the level of economic security and factors, threatening
economic safety of the state. The research is based on the analysis of
factors and indicators in conditions of innovative development. The
paper is illustrated by the examples of possible estimated system of
the economic safety level.
Abstract: This study aims to assess the environmental hazards
from radon exhalation rate in the soil samples in selected locations in
Iraqi Kurdistan, using passive (CR-39NTDs) and active (RAD7)
detecting method. Radon concentration, effective radium content and
radon exhalation rate were estimated in soil samples that collected at
the depth level of 30 cm inside 124 houses. The results show that the
emanation rate for radon gas was variation from location to other,
depending on the geological formation. Most health risks come from
emanation of radon and its daughter due to its contribution for indoor
radon, so the results showed that there is a linear relationship
between the ratio of soil and indoor radon concentration (CSoil Rn222/
Cindoor Rn222) and the effective radium content in soil samples. The
results show that radon concentration has high and low values in
Hajyawa city and Er. Tyrawa Qr, respectively. A comparison
between our results with that mentioned in international reports was
done.
Abstract: In this paper a new method is suggested for risk
management by the numerical patterns in data-mining. These patterns
are designed using probability rules in decision trees and are cared to
be valid, novel, useful and understandable. Considering a set of
functions, the system reaches to a good pattern or better objectives.
The patterns are analyzed through the produced matrices and some
results are pointed out. By using the suggested method the direction
of the functionality route in the systems can be controlled and best
planning for special objectives be done.
Abstract: The availability of broadband internet and increased
access to computers has been instrumental in the rise of internet
literacy in Malaysia. This development has led to the adoption of
online shopping by many Malaysians. On another note, the
Government has supported the development and production of local
herbal products. This has resulted in an increase in the production and
diversity of products by SMEs. The purpose of this study is to
evaluate the influence of the Malaysian demographic factors and
selected attitudinal characteristics in relation to the online purchasing
of herbal products. In total, 1054 internet users were interviewed
online and Chi-square analysis was used to determine the relationship
between demographic variables and different aspects of online
shopping for herbal products. The overall results show that the
demographic variables such as age, gender, education level, income
and ethnicity were significant when considering the online shopping
antecedents of trust, quality of herbal products, perceived risks and
perceived benefits.
Abstract: The paper evaluates several hundred one-day-ahead
VaR forecasting models in the time period between the years 2004
and 2009 on data from six world stock indices - DJI, GSPC, IXIC,
FTSE, GDAXI and N225. The models model mean using the ARMA
processes with up to two lags and variance with one of GARCH,
EGARCH or TARCH processes with up to two lags. The models are
estimated on the data from the in-sample period and their forecasting
accuracy is evaluated on the out-of-sample data, which are more
volatile. The main aim of the paper is to test whether a model
estimated on data with lower volatility can be used in periods with
higher volatility. The evaluation is based on the conditional coverage
test and is performed on each stock index separately. The primary
result of the paper is that the volatility is best modelled using a
GARCH process and that an ARMA process pattern cannot be found
in analyzed time series.
Abstract: Buildings are one of the valuable assets to provide
people with shelters for work, leisure and rest. After years of
attacks by weather, buildings will deteriorate which need proper
maintenance in order to fulfill the requirements and satisfaction of
the users. Poorly managed buildings not just give a negative image
to the city itself, but also pose potential risk hazards to the health
and safety of the general public. As a result, the management of
maintenance projects has played an important role in cities like
Hong Kong where the problem of urban decay has drawn much
attention. However, most research has focused on managing new
construction, and little research effort has been put on maintenance
projects. Given the short duration and more diversified nature of
work, repair and maintenance works are found to be more difficult
to monitor and regulate when compared with new works. Project
participants may face with problems in running maintenance
projects which should be investigated so that proper strategies can
be established. This paper aims to provide a thorough analysis on
the problems of running maintenance projects. A review of
literature on the characteristics of building maintenance projects
was firstly conducted, which forms a solid basis for the empirical
study. Results on the problems and difficulties of running
maintenance projects from the viewpoints of industry practitioners
will also be delivered with a view to formulating effective
strategies for managing maintenance projects successfully.
Abstract: The gas safety management system using an
intelligent gas meter we proposed is to monitor flow and
pressure of gas, earthquake, temperature, smoke and leak of
methane. Then our system takes safety measures to protect a
serious risk by the result of an event, to communicate with a
wall-pad including a gateway by zigbee network in buildings
and to report the event to user by the safety management
program in a server. Also, the inner cutoff valve of an
intelligent gas meter is operated if any event occurred or
abnormal at each sensor.
Abstract: Contractor selection in Saudi Arabia is very important due to the large construction boom and the contractor role to get over construction risks. The need for investigating contractor selection is due to the following reasons; large number of defaulted or failed projects (18%), large number of disputes attributed to contractor during the project execution stage (almost twofold), the extension of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) into construction industry, and finally the few number of researches. The selection strategy is not perfect and considered as the reason behind irresponsible contractors. As a response, this research was conducted to review the contractor selection strategies as an integral part of a long advanced research to develop a good selection model. Many techniques can be used to form a selection strategy; multi criteria for optimizing decision, prequalification to discover contractor-s responsibility, bidding process for competition, third party guarantee to enhance the selection, and fuzzy techniques for ambiguities and incomplete information.
Abstract: Simulations play a major role in education not only because they provide realistic models with which students can interact to acquire real world experiences, but also because they constitute safe environments in which students can repeat processes without any risk in order to perceive easier concepts and theories. Virtual reality is widely recognized as a significant technological advance that can facilitate learning process through the development of highly realistic 3D simulations supporting immersive and interactive features. The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of virtual reality-s use in chemistry instruction as well as to present an integrated web-based learning environment for the simulation of chemical experiments. The proposed application constitutes a cost-effective solution for both schools and universities without appropriate infrastructure and a valuable tool for distance learning and life-long education in chemistry. Its educational objectives are the familiarization of students with the equipment of a real chemical laboratory and the execution of virtual volumetric analysis experiments with the active participation of students.
Abstract: In Lebanon, public construction projects are awarded
to the contractor submitting the lowest bid price based on a
competitive bidding process. The contractor has to make a strategic
decision in choosing the appropriate bid price that will offer a
satisfactory profit with a greater probability to win. A simulation
model for bid price decision making based on the lowest bid price
evaluation is developed. The model, built using Crystal Ball decisionengineering
software, considers two main factors affecting the
bidding process: the number of qualified bidders and the size of the
project. The validity of the model is tested on twelve separate
projects. The study also shows how to use the model to conduct risk
analysis and help any specific contractor to decide on his bid price
with associated certainty level in a scientific method.
Abstract: This paper focuses on operational risk measurement
techniques and on economic capital estimation methods. A data
sample of operational losses provided by an anonymous Central
European bank is analyzed using several approaches. Loss
Distribution Approach and scenario analysis method are considered.
Custom plausible loss events defined in a particular scenario are
merged with the original data sample and their impact on capital
estimates and on the financial institution is evaluated. Two main
questions are assessed – What is the most appropriate statistical
method to measure and model operational loss data distribution? and
What is the impact of hypothetical plausible events on the financial
institution? The g&h distribution was evaluated to be the most
suitable one for operational risk modeling. The method based on the
combination of historical loss events modeling and scenario analysis
provides reasonable capital estimates and allows for the measurement
of the impact of extreme events on banking operations.
Abstract: The one of most important objects in implementation
of damage analysis observations is manner of dam break wave
propagation. In this paper velocity and wave height due dam break in
with and without tailwater states for appointment hazardous lands
and flood radius are investigate. In order to modeling above
phenomenon finite volume method of Roe type for solving shallow
water equations is used. Results indicated that in the dry bed state
risk radius due to dam break is too high. While in the wet bed risk
radius has a less wide. Therefore in the first state constructions and
storage facilities are encountered with destruction risk. Further
velocity due to dam break in the second state is more comparing to
the first state. Hence erosion and scour the river bed in the dry bed is
too more compare to the wet bed.
Abstract: Diabetes Mellitus is a chronic metabolic disorder, where the improper management of the blood glucose level in the diabetic patients will lead to the risk of heart attack, kidney disease and renal failure. This paper attempts to enhance the diagnostic accuracy of the advancing blood glucose levels of the diabetic patients, by combining principal component analysis and wavelet neural network. The proposed system makes separate blood glucose prediction in the morning, afternoon, evening and night intervals, using dataset from one patient covering a period of 77 days. Comparisons of the diagnostic accuracy with other neural network models, which use the same dataset are made. The comparison results showed overall improved accuracy, which indicates the effectiveness of this proposed system.
Abstract: This paper was aimed to survey the level of awareness
of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok in these categories: location,
service quality, risk, shopping, worthwhile, shopping satisfaction, and
future shopping intention. The paper was also aimed to survey factors
influencing the decision to shop at traditional grocery stores in
Bangkok in the future. The findings revealed that consumers had a
high level of awareness of traditional grocery stores in Bangkok.
Consumers were aware that the price was higher and it was riskier to
buy goods and services at traditional grocery stores but they still had
a high level of preference to patronage traditional grocery stores. This
was due to the reasons that there was a high level of satisfaction from
the factors of the friendliness of the owner, the ability to negotiate the
price, the ability to buy on credit, free delivery, and the enjoyment to
meet with other customers in the same neighborhood.
Abstract: In order to apply partially filled steel grid composite deck as the horizontal supporting structure of various kinds of infrastructures, the variation of its flexural strength according to design parameters such as cross and longitudinal bars constituting the steel grid and the type of shear connection is evaluated and compared experimentally. The result shows that the design sensitivity of the deck to the spacing of the cross bars is insignificant in the case of structure with low risk of punching failure or without load distribution problem. By means of shear connection composed by transverse rebar and longitudinal bar without additional shear stud bolts, the complete interaction between steel grid and concrete slab is able to be achieved and the composite deck can develop its bending resistance capacity.
Abstract: This paper introduces the foundations of Bayesian probability theory and Bayesian decision method. The main goal of Bayesian decision theory is to minimize the expected loss of a decision or minimize the expected risk. The purposes of this study are to review the decision process on the issue of flood occurrences and to suggest possible process for decision improvement. This study examines the problem structure of flood occurrences and theoretically explicates the decision-analytic approach based on Bayesian decision theory and application to flood occurrences in Environmental Engineering. In this study, we will discuss about the flood occurrences upon an annual maximum water level in cm, 43-year record available from 1965 to 2007 at the gauging station of Sagaing on the Ayeyarwady River with the drainage area - 120193 sq km by using Bayesian decision method. As a result, we will discuss the loss and risk of vast areas of agricultural land whether which will be inundated or not in the coming year based on the two standard maximum water levels during 43 years. And also we forecast about that lands will be safe from flood water during the next 10 years.
Abstract: Massive use of places with strong tourist attraction
with the consequent possibility of losing place-identity produces
harmful effects on cities and their users. In order to mitigate this risk,
areas close to such places can be identified so as to widen the
visitor-s range of action and offer alternative activities integrated
with the main site. The cultural places and appropriate activities can
be identified using a method of analysis and design able to trace the
identity of the places, their characteristics and potential, and to
provide a sustainable improvement. The aim of this work is to
propose PlaceMaker as a method of urban analysis and design which
both detects elements that do not feature in traditional mapping and
which constitute the contemporary identity of the places, and
identifies appropriate project interventions. Two final complex maps
– the first of analysis and the second of design – respectively
represent the identity of places and project interventions. In order to
illustrate the method-s potential; the results of the experimentation
carried out in the Trevi-Pantheon route in Rome and the appropriate
interventions to decongest the area are illustrated.
Abstract: Sedimentation in reservoirs lowers the quality of
consumed water, reduce the volume of reservoir, lowers the
controllable amount of flood, increases the risk of water overflow
during possible floods and the risk of reversal and reduction of dam's
useful life. So in all stages of dam establishment such as cognitive
studies, phase-1 studies of design, control, construction and
maintenance, the problem of sedimentation in reservoir should be
considered. What engineers need to do is examine and develop the
methods to keep effective capacity of a reservoir, however engineers
should also consider the influences of the methods on the flood
disaster, functions of water use facilities and environmental
issues.This article first examines the sedimentation in reservoirs and
shows how to control it and then discusses the studies about the
sedimens in Siazakh Dam.
Abstract: As a vital activity for companies, new product
development (NPD) is also a very risky process due to the high
uncertainty degree encountered at every development stage and the
inevitable dependence on how previous steps are successfully
accomplished. Hence, there is an apparent need to evaluate new
product initiatives systematically and make accurate decisions under
uncertainty. Another major concern is the time pressure to launch a
significant number of new products to preserve and increase the
competitive power of the company. In this work, we propose an
integrated decision-making framework based on neural networks and
fuzzy logic to make appropriate decisions and accelerate the
evaluation process. We are especially interested in the two initial
stages where new product ideas are selected (go/no go decision) and
the implementation order of the corresponding projects are
determined. We show that this two-staged intelligent approach allows
practitioners to roughly and quickly separate good and bad product
ideas by making use of previous experiences, and then, analyze a
more shortened list rigorously.
Abstract: The Malaysia Highway Authority (MHA) was
established by the Government in 1980 for the purpose of designing,
constructing and maintaining toll highways in Malaysia that include
the North-South Expressway and the Penang Bridge, which were
procured using the publicly-funded traditional procurement. However
following a recession in the mid 80-s, the operations of these tolledhighways
had been privatized to ensure that their operational services
continue through private financing as a result of long-term
concession agreement concurred between the Malaysian Government
and private operators. The change in the contract strategy for
highway projects in Malaysia would have a great tendency to dictate
a significant risk exposure towards the key parties involved,
particularly the Malaysian Government as project principal, unless
operational risks are clearly identified and managed via appropriate
mitigation measures prior to a contract signing.
This research identifies potential operational risks that have a
possibility to occur in highway projects in Malaysia from the
perspective of public sector clients. Since this research focuses on the
operational risks for highway projects in Malaysia, the initial results
acquired from literature review on the operational risks of highway
projects in some Asian countries are then justified by a number of
key individuals from the MHA through interviews. As a result,
among key operational risks that have possibility to occur in the
highway projects in Malaysia include initial toll-tariff decided by the
Government, traffic congestion, change of road network and overloaded
freight transportation, which could cause damage to the road
surface and hence affecting the operation of a particular highway.