Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in
three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data
mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering
into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an
artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented
after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring
error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on
previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of
network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast
for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential
Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based
on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support
vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results
show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in
comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods'
stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of
clustering analysis is measured.
Abstract: Mobile agent has motivated the creation of a new
methodology for parallel computing. We introduce a methodology
for the creation of parallel applications on the network. The proposed
Mobile-Agent parallel processing framework uses multiple Javamobile
Agents. Each mobile agent can travel to the specified
machine in the network to perform its tasks. We also introduce the
concept of master agent, which is Java object capable of
implementing a particular task of the target application. Master agent
is dynamically assigns the task to mobile agents. We have developed
and tested a prototype application: Mobile Agent Based Parallel
Computing. Boosted by the inherited benefits of using Java and
Mobile Agents, our proposed methodology breaks the barriers
between the environments, and could potentially exploit in a parallel
manner all the available computational resources on the network.
This paper elaborates performance issues of a mobile agent for
parallel computing.
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.
Abstract: Introducing survivability into embedded real-time system (ERTS) can improve the survivability power of the system. This paper mainly discusses about the survivability of ERTS. The first is the survivability origin of ERTS. The second is survivability analysis. According to the definition of survivability based on survivability specification and division of the entire survivability analysis process for ERTS, a survivability analysis profile is presented. The quantitative analysis model of this profile is emphasized and illuminated in detail, the quantifying analysis of system was showed helpful to evaluate system survivability more accurate. The third is platform design of survivability analysis. In terms of the profile, the analysis process is encapsulated and assembled into one platform, on which quantification, standardization and simplification of survivability analysis are all achieved. The fourth is survivability design. According to character of ERTS, strengthened design method is selected to realize system survivability design. Through the analysis of embedded mobile video-on-demand system, intrusion tolerant technology is introduced in whole survivability design.
Abstract: Today with the rapid growth of telecommunications equipment, electronic and developing more and more networks of power, influence of electromagnetic waves on one another has become hot topic discussions. So in this article, this issue and appropriate mechanisms for EMC operations have been presented. First, impact of high voltage lines on the surrounding environment especially on the control room has been investigated, then to reduce electromagnetic radiation, various methods of shielding are provided and shielding effectiveness of them has been compared. It should be expressed that simulations have been done by the finite element method (FEM).
Abstract: Weather disaster events were frequent and caused loss
of lives and property in Taiwan recently. Excessive concentration of
population and lacking of integrated planning led to Taiwanese coastal
zone face the impacts of climate change directly. Comparing to many
countries which have already set up legislation, competent authorities
and national adaptation strategies, the ability of coastal management
adapting to climate change is still insufficient in Taiwan. Therefore, it
is necessary to establish a complete institutional arrangement for
coastal management due to climate change in order to protect
environment and sustain socio-economic development. This paper
firstly reviews the impact of climate change on Taiwanese coastal
zone. Secondly, development of Taiwanese institutional arrangement
of coastal management is introduced. Followed is the analysis of four
dimensions of legal basis, competent authority, scientific and financial
support and international cooperations of institutional arrangement.
The results show that Taiwanese government shall: 1) integrate climate
change issue into Coastal Act, Wetland Act and territorial planning
Act and pass them; 2) establish the high level competent authority for
coastal management; 3) set up the climate change disaster coordinate
platform; 4) link scientific information and decision markers; 5)
establish the climate change adjustment fund; 6) participate in
international climate change organizations and meetings actively; 7)
cooperate with near countries to exchange experiences.
Abstract: As a result of urbanization, the unpredictable growth of industry and transport, production of chemicals, military activities, etc. the concentration of anthropogenic toxicants spread in nature exceeds all the permissible standards. Most dangerous among these contaminants are organic compounds having great persistence, bioaccumulation, and toxicity along with our awareness of their prominent occurrence in the environment and food chain. Among natural ecological tools, plants still occupying above 40% of the world land, until recently, were considered as organisms having only a limited ecological potential, accumulating in plant biomass and partially volatilizing contaminants of different structure. However, analysis of experimental data of the last two decades revealed the essential role of plants in environment remediation due to ability to carry out intracellular degradation processes leading to partial or complete decomposition of carbon skeleton of different structure contaminants. Though, phytoremediation technologies still are in research and development, their various applications have been successfully used. The paper aims to analyze mechanisms of organic contaminants uptake and detoxification in plants, being the less studied issue in evaluation and exploration of plants potential for environment remediation.
Abstract: Arms detection is one of the fundamental problems in
human motion analysis application. The arms are considered as the
most challenging body part to be detected since its pose and speed
varies in image sequences. Moreover, the arms are usually occluded
with other body parts such as the head and torso. In this paper,
histogram-based skin colour segmentation is proposed to detect the
arms in image sequences. Six different colour spaces namely RGB,
rgb, HSI, TSL, SCT and CIELAB are evaluated to determine the best
colour space for this segmentation procedure. The evaluation is
divided into three categories, which are single colour component,
colour without luminance and colour with luminance. The
performance is measured using True Positive (TP) and True Negative
(TN) on 250 images with manual ground truth. The best colour is
selected based on the highest TN value followed by the highest TP
value.
Abstract: Fly ash is a significant waste that is released of
thermal power plants and defined as very fine particles that are drifted upward with up taken by the flue gases due to the burning of
used coal [1]. The fly-ash is capable of removing organic
contaminants in consequence of high carbon content, a large surface area per unit volume and contained heavy metals. Therefore, fly ash
is used as an effective coagulant and adsorbent by pelletization [2, 3].
In this study, the possibility of use of fly ash taken from Turkey like low-cost adsorbent for adsorption of zinc ions found in waste
water was investigated. The fly ash taken from Turkey was pelletized with bentonite and molass to evaluate the adsorption capaticity. For
this purpose; analyses such as sieve analysis, XRD, XRF, FTIR and SEM were performed. As a result, it was seen that pellets prepared
from fly ash, bentonite and molass would be used for zinc adsorption.
Abstract: High speed networks provide realtime variable bit rate
service with diversified traffic flow characteristics and quality
requirements. The variable bit rate traffic has stringent delay and
packet loss requirements. The burstiness of the correlated traffic
makes dynamic buffer management highly desirable to satisfy the
Quality of Service (QoS) requirements. This paper presents an
algorithm for optimization of adaptive buffer allocation scheme for
traffic based on loss of consecutive packets in data-stream and buffer
occupancy level. Buffer is designed to allow the input traffic to be
partitioned into different priority classes and based on the input
traffic behavior it controls the threshold dynamically. This algorithm
allows input packets to enter into buffer if its occupancy level is less
than the threshold value for priority of that packet. The threshold is
dynamically varied in runtime based on packet loss behavior. The
simulation is run for two priority classes of the input traffic –
realtime and non-realtime classes. The simulation results show that
Adaptive Partial Buffer Sharing (ADPBS) has better performance
than Static Partial Buffer Sharing (SPBS) and First In First Out
(FIFO) queue under the same traffic conditions.
Abstract: The necessity of accurate and timely field data is
shared among organizations engaged in fundamentally different
activities, public services or commercial operations. Basically, there
are three major components in the process of the qualitative research:
data collection, interpretation and organization of data, and analytic
process. Representative technological advancements in terms of
innovation have been made in mobile devices (mobile phone, PDA-s,
tablets, laptops, etc). Resources that can be potentially applied on the
data collection activity for field researches in order to improve this
process.
This paper presents and discuss the main features of a mobile
phone based solution for field data collection, composed of basically
three modules: a survey editor, a server web application and a client
mobile application. The data gathering process begins with the
survey creation module, which enables the production of tailored
questionnaires. The field workforce receives the questionnaire(s) on
their mobile phones to collect the interviews responses and sending
them back to a server for immediate analysis.
Abstract: In this paper, a tooth shape optimization method for
cogging torque reduction in Permanent Magnet (PM) motors is
developed by using the Reduced Basis Technique (RBT) coupled by
Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and Design of Experiments (DOE)
methods. The primary objective of the method is to reduce the
enormous number of design variables required to define the tooth
shape. RBT is a weighted combination of several basis shapes. The
aim of the method is to find the best combination using the weights
for each tooth shape as the design variables. A multi-level design
process is developed to find suitable basis shapes or trial shapes at
each level that can be used in the reduced basis technique. Each level
is treated as a separated optimization problem until the required
objective – minimum cogging torque – is achieved. The process is
started with geometrically simple basis shapes that are defined by
their shape co-ordinates. The experimental design of Taguchi method
is used to build the approximation model and to perform
optimization. This method is demonstrated on the tooth shape
optimization of a 8-poles/12-slots PM motor.
Abstract: Due to the ever growing amount of publications about
protein-protein interactions, information extraction from text is
increasingly recognized as one of crucial technologies in
bioinformatics. This paper presents a Protein Interaction Extraction
System using a Link Grammar Parser from biomedical abstracts
(PIELG). PIELG uses linkage given by the Link Grammar Parser to
start a case based analysis of contents of various syntactic roles as
well as their linguistically significant and meaningful combinations.
The system uses phrasal-prepositional verbs patterns to overcome
preposition combinations problems. The recall and precision are
74.4% and 62.65%, respectively. Experimental evaluations with two
other state-of-the-art extraction systems indicate that PIELG system
achieves better performance. For further evaluation, the system is
augmented with a graphical package (Cytoscape) for extracting
protein interaction information from sequence databases. The result
shows that the performance is remarkably promising.
Abstract: This paper presents a mathematical model and a
methodology to analyze the losses in transmission expansion
planning (TEP) under uncertainty in demand. The methodology is
based on discrete particle swarm optimization (DPSO). DPSO is a
useful and powerful stochastic evolutionary algorithm to solve the
large-scale, discrete and nonlinear optimization problems like TEP.
The effectiveness of the proposed idea is tested on an actual
transmission network of the Azerbaijan regional electric company,
Iran. The simulation results show that considering the losses even for
transmission expansion planning of a network with low load growth
is caused that operational costs decreases considerably and the
network satisfies the requirement of delivering electric power more
reliable to load centers.
Abstract: As in other countries from Central and Eastern Europe,
the economic restructuring occurred in the last decade of the
twentieth century affected the mining industry in Romania, an
oversize and heavily subsidized sector before 1989. After more than
a decade since the beginning of mining restructuring, an evaluation
of current social implications of the process it is required, together
with an efficiency analysis of the adaptation mechanisms developed
at governmental level. This article aims to provide an insight into
these issues through case studies conducted in the most important
coal basin of Romania, Petroşani Depression.
Abstract: In a particular case of behavioural model reduction by ANNs, a validity domain shortening has been found. In mechanics, as in other domains, the notion of validity domain allows the engineer to choose a valid model for a particular analysis or simulation. In the study of mechanical behaviour for a cantilever beam (using linear and non-linear models), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) Backpropagation (BP) networks have been applied as model reduction technique. This reduced model is constructed to be more efficient than the non-reduced model. Within a less extended domain, the ANN reduced model estimates correctly the non-linear response, with a lower computational cost. It has been found that the neural network model is not able to approximate the linear behaviour while it does approximate the non-linear behaviour very well. The details of the case are provided with an example of the cantilever beam behaviour modelling.
Abstract: This paper presents the experimental results of silicone rubber polymer insulators for 22 kV systems under salt water dip wheel test based on IEC 62217. Straight shed silicone rubber polymer insulators having leakage distance 685 mm were tested continuously 30,000 cycles. One test cycle includes 4 positions, energized, de-energized, salt water dip and deenergized, respectively. For one test cycle, each test specimen remains stationary for about 40 second in each position and takes 8 second for rotate to next position. By visual observation, sever surface erosion was observed on the trunk near the energized end of tested specimen. Puncture was observed on the upper shed near the energized end. In addition, decreasing in hydrophobicity and increasing in hardness were measured on tested specimen comparing with new specimen. Furthermore, chemical analysis by ATR-FTIR was conducted in order to elucidate the chemical change of tested specimens comparing with new specimen.
Abstract: This paper aims to discuss the influence of resistance
characteristic on the high conductive concrete considering the changes
of voltage and environment. The high conductive concrete with
appropriate proportion is produced to the press-electrode method. The
curve of resistivity with the changes of voltage and environment is
plotted and the changes of resistivity are explored.
Abstract: Basic objective of this study is to create a regression
analysis method that can estimate the length of a plastic hinge which
is an important design parameter, by making use of the outcomes of
(lateral load-lateral displacement hysteretic curves) the experimental
studies conducted for the reinforced square concrete columns. For
this aim, 170 different square reinforced concrete column tests results
have been collected from the existing literature. The parameters
which are thought affecting the plastic hinge length such as crosssection
properties, features of material used, axial loading level,
confinement of the column, longitudinal reinforcement bars in the
columns etc. have been obtained from these 170 different square
reinforced concrete column tests. In the study, when determining the
length of plastic hinge, using the experimental test results, a
regression analysis have been separately tested and compared with
each other. In addition, the outcome of mentioned methods on
determination of plastic hinge length of the reinforced concrete
columns has been compared to other methods available in the
literature.
Abstract: Population diversification phenomena becomes quite common in villages located in China’s developed coastal area. Based on the analysis of the traditional rural society and its landscape characteristics, and in consideration of diversified landscape requirements due to the population diversification, with dual ideas of heritage and innovation, methods for rural landscape design were explored by taking Duxuao Village in Zhejiang Province of China as an example.