Abstract: This paper considers a comparative analysis of multiple criteria decision making analysis methods for strategic, tactical, and operational decisions in military fighter aircraft selection for the air force fleet planning. The evaluation criteria governing the decision analysis process are determined from the literature for the three existing military combat aircraft. Military fighter aircraft selection problem is structured using "preference analysis for reference ideal solution (PARIS)” approach in multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDMA). Systematic comparisons were made with existing MCDMA methods (PARIS, and TOPSIS) to verify the stability and accuracy of the results obtained. The proposed integrated MCDMA systematic approach is expected to address the issues encountered in the aircraft selection process. The comparative analysis results show that the proposed method is an effective and accurate tool that can help analysts make better strategic, tactical, and operational decisions.
Abstract: Radiative forces of greenhouse gases (GHG) increase the temperature of the Earth's surface, more on land, and less in oceans, due to their thermal capacities. Given this inertia, the temperature increase is delayed over time. Air temperature, however, is not delayed as air thermal capacity is much lower. In this study, through analysis and synthesis of multidisciplinary science and data, an estimate of atmospheric temperature increase is made. Then, this estimate is used to shed light on current observations of ice and snow loss, desertification and forest fires, and increased extreme air disturbances. The reason for this inquiry is due to the author’s skepticism that current changes cannot be explained by a "~1 oC" global average surface temperature rise within the last 50-60 years. The only other plausible cause to explore for understanding is that of atmospheric temperature rise. The study utilizes an analysis of air temperature rise from three different scientific disciplines: thermodynamics, climate science experiments, and climactic historical studies. The results coming from these diverse disciplines are nearly the same, within ± 1.6%. The direct radiative force of GHGs with a high level of scientific understanding is near 4.7 W/m2 on average over the Earth’s entire surface in 2018, as compared to one in pre-Industrial time in the mid-1700s. The additional radiative force of fast feedbacks coming from various forms of water gives approximately an additional ~15 W/m2. In 2018, these radiative forces heated the atmosphere by approximately 5.1 oC, which will create a thermal equilibrium average ground surface temperature increase of 4.6 oC to 4.8 oC by the end of this century. After 2018, the temperature will continue to rise without any additional increases in the concentration of the GHGs, primarily of carbon dioxide and methane. These findings of the radiative force of GHGs in 2018 were applied to estimates of effects on major Earth ecosystems. This additional force of nearly 20 W/m2 causes an increase in ice melting by an additional rate of over 90 cm/year, green leaves temperature increase by nearly 5 oC, and a work energy increase of air by approximately 40 Joules/mole. This explains the observed high rates of ice melting at all altitudes and latitudes, the spread of deserts and increases in forest fires, as well as increased energy of tornadoes, typhoons, hurricanes, and extreme weather, much more plausibly than the 1.5 oC increase in average global surface temperature in the same time interval. Planned mitigation and adaptation measures might prove to be much more effective when directed toward the reduction of existing GHGs in the atmosphere.
Abstract: The United States military is now commonly responding to complex humanitarian emergencies and natural disasters around the world. From catastrophic earthquakes in Haiti to typhoons devastating the Philippines, U.S. military assistance is requested when the event exceeds the local government's ability to assist the population. This study assesses the characteristics of catastrophes that surpass a nation’s individual ability to respond and recover from the event. The paper begins with a historical summary of military aid and then analyzes over 40 years of the United States military humanitarian response. Over 300 military operations were reviewed and coded based on the nature of the disaster. This in-depth study reviewed the U.S. military’s deployment events for cyclones and earthquakes to determine the strength of the natural disaster requiring external assistance. The climatological data for cyclone landfall and magnitude data for earthquake epicenters were identified, grouped into regions and analyzed for time-based trends. The results showed that foreign countries will likely request the U.S. military for cyclones with speeds greater or equal to 125 miles an hour and earthquakes at the magnitude of 7.4 or higher. These results of this study will assist the geographic combatant commands in determining future military response requirements.
Abstract: Recently, damage to domestic facilities by strong winds and typhoons are growing. Therefore, this study focused on sign structure among various vulnerable facilities. The evaluation of the wind fragility was carried out considering the destruction of the anchor, which is one of the various failure modes of the sign structure. The performance evaluation of the anchor was carried out to derive the wind fragility. Two parameters were set and four anchor types were selected to perform the pull-out and shear tests. The resistance capacity was estimated based on the experimental results. Wind loads were estimated using Monte Carlo simulation method. Based on these results, we derived the wind fragility according to anchor type and wind exposure category. Finally, the evaluation of the wind fragility was performed according to the experimental parameters such as anchor length and anchor diameter. This study shows that the depth of anchor was more significant for the safety of structure compare to diameter of anchor.
Abstract: Recently, damages due to typhoons and strong wind are on the rise. Considering this issue, we evaluated the performance of soundproofing walls based on the strong wind fragility by means of numerical analysis. Among the components of the soundproof wall, aluminum frame was the most vulnerable member, thus we have considered different section of aluminum frame in the determination of wind fragility. Wind load was randomly generated using Monte Carlo Simulation method. Moreover, limit state was based on the test standard of road construction soundproofing wall. In this study, the strong wind fragility was determined by considering the influence factors of wind exposure category, soundproof wall’s installation position, and shape of aluminum frame section. Results of this study could be used to determine the section shape of the frame that has high resistance to the wind during construction of the soundproofing wall.
Abstract: The failure of roof cladding mostly occurs due to the failing of the connection between claddings and purlins, which is the pull-out of the screw connecting the two parts when the pull-out load, i.e. typhoon, is higher than the resistance of the connection screw. As typhoon disasters in Korea are constantly on the rise, probability risk assessment (PRA) has become a vital tool to evaluate the performance of civil structures. In this study, we attempted to determine the fragility of roof cladding with the screw connection. Experimental study was performed to evaluate the pull-out resistance of screw joints between honeycomb panels and back frames. Subsequently, by means of Monte Carlo Simulation method, probability of failure for these types of roof cladding was determined. The results that the failure of roof cladding was depends on their location on the roof, for example, the edge most panel has the highest probability of failure.
Abstract: Window system in high rise building is occasionally subjected to an excessive wind intensity, particularly during typhoon. The failure of window system did not affect overall safety of structural performance; however, it could endanger the safety of the residents. In this paper, comparison of fragility curves for window system of two residential buildings was studied. The probability of failure for individual window was determined with Monte Carlo Simulation method. Then, lognormal cumulative distribution function was used to represent the fragility. The results showed that windows located on the edge of leeward wall were more susceptible to wind load and the probability of failure for each window panel increased at higher floors.
Abstract: The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural
disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and
huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was
improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural
disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in
Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between
related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the
natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people
has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities
did not participate in the natural disaster management.
Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building
in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and
information about the capacity building and the natural disaster
management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying
and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity
building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be
consist of 1) link operation and information in the natural disaster
management between nation, province, local and community levels,
2) enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate
to the natural disaster management, 3) establish proactive natural
disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)
decentralize the natural disaster management to local government
organizations, 5) construct public awareness in the natural disaster
management to community, 6) support Community Based Disaster
Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7) emphasis on
participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.
Abstract: Vibration analysis is the most important factor in preventive maintenance. Gas turbine vibration analysis is also one of the most challenging categories in most critical equipment monitoring systems. Utilities are heart of the process in big industrial plants like petrochemical zones. Vibration analysis methods and condition monitoring systems of this kind of equipment developed too much in recent years. On the other hand, too much operation condition consideration in this kind of equipment should be adjusted properly like inlet and outlet pressure and temperature for both turbine and compressor. In this paper the most important tools and hypothesis used for analyzing of gas turbine power plants discussed in details through a real case history related to an Alstom Typhoon gas turbine power plant in Iran oil industries. In addition, the basic principal of vibration behavior caused by mechanical unbalance in gas turbine rotor discussed in details.
Abstract: In this paper, a study of slope failures along the Alishan Highway is carried out. An innovative empirical model is developed based on 15-year records of rainfall-induced slope failures. The statistical models are intended for assessing the volume of landslide for slope failure along the Alishan Highway in the future. The rainfall data considered in the proposed models include the effective cumulative rainfall and the critical rainfall intensity. The effective cumulative rainfall is defined at the point when the curve of cumulative rainfall goes from steep to flat. Then, the rainfall thresholds of landslide are established for assessing the volume of landslide and issuing warning and/or closure for the Alishan Highway during a future extreme rainfall. Slope failures during Typhoon Saola in 2012 demonstrate that the new empirical model is effective and applicable to other cases with similar rainfall conditions.
Abstract: High level and high velocity flood flows are
potentially harmful to bridge piers as evidenced in many toppled
piers, and among them the single-column piers were considered as
the most vulnerable. The flood flow characteristic parameters
including drag coefficient, scouring and vortex shedding are built into
a pier-flood interaction model to investigate structural safety against
flood hazards considering the effects of local scouring, hydrodynamic
forces, and vortex induced resonance vibrations. By extracting the
pier-flood simulation results embedded in a neural networks code,
two cases of pier toppling occurred in typhoon days were reexamined:
(1) a bridge overcome by flash flood near a mountain side;
(2) a bridge washed off in flood across a wide channel near the
estuary. The modeling procedures and simulations are capable of
identifying the probable causes for the tumbled bridge piers during
heavy floods, which include the excessive pier bending moments and
resonance in structural vibrations.
Abstract: Both prognostic and diagnostic modes of a 3D baroclinic
model in hydrodynamic and sediment transport models of
the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) were conducted to separate
prognose and diagnose effects of different hydrodynamic factors on
transport of suspended sediment discharged from the rivers to the
Gulf of Thailand (GoT). Both transport modes of suspended sediment
distribution in the GoT were numerically simulated. It could be
concluded that the suspended sediment discharged from the rivers
around the GoT. Most of sediments in estuaries and coastal areas are
deposited outside the GoT under the condition of wind-driven current,
and very small amount of the sediments of them are transported
faraway. On the basis of wind forcing, sediments from the lower
GoT to the upper GoT are mainly transported south-northwestward
and also continuously moved north-southwestward. An obvious 3D
characteristic of suspended sediment transport is produced in the
wind-driven current residual circulation condition. In this study, the
transport patterns at the third layer are generally consistent with
the typhoon-induced strong currents in two case studies of Typhoon
Linda 1997. The case studies presented the prognostic and diagnostic
modes during 00UTC28OCT1997 to 12UTC06NOV1997 in a short
period with the current condition for pre-operation of the suspended
sediment transport model in estuaries and coastal areas.
Abstract: This paper presents an integrated model that
automatically measures the change of rivers, damage area of bridge
surroundings, and change of vegetation. The proposed model is on the
basis of a neurofuzzy mechanism enhanced by SOM optimization
algorithm, and also includes three functions to deal with river imagery.
High resolution imagery from FORMOSAT-2 satellite taken before
and after the invasion period is adopted. By randomly selecting a
bridge out of 129 destroyed bridges, the recognition results show that
the average width has increased 66%. The ruined segment of the
bridge is located exactly at the most scour region. The vegetation
coverage has also reduced to nearly 90% of the original. The results
yielded from the proposed model demonstrate a pinpoint accuracy rate
at 99.94%. This study brings up a successful tool not only for
large-scale damage assessment but for precise measurement to
disasters.
Abstract: Global environmental changes lead to increased frequency and scale of natural disaster, Taiwan is under the influence of global warming and extreme weather. Therefore, the vulnerability was increased and variability and complexity of disasters is relatively enhanced. The purpose of this study is to consider the source and magnitude of hazard characteristics on the tourism industry. Using modern risk management concepts, integration of related domestic and international basic research, this goes beyond the Taiwan typhoon disaster risk assessment model and evaluation of loss. This loss evaluation index system considers the impact of extreme weather, in particular heavy rain on the tourism industry in Taiwan. Consider the extreme climate of the compound impact of disaster for the tourism industry; we try to make multi-hazard risk assessment model, strategies and suggestions. Related risk analysis results are expected to provide government department, the tourism industry asset owners, insurance companies and banking include tourist disaster risk necessary information to help its tourism industry for effective natural disaster risk management.
Abstract: Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan in 2009 and caused
severe damages. The government employs a compulsory relocation
strategy for post-disaster reconstruction. This study analyzes the
impact of this strategy on community solidarity. It employs a multiple
approach for data collection, including semi-structural interview,
secondary data, and documentation. The results indicate that the
government-s strategy for distributing housing has led to conflicts
within the communities. In addition, the relocating process has
stimulated tensions between victims of the disaster and those residents
whose lands were chosen to be new sites for relocation. The
government-s strategy of “collective relocation" also worsened
community integration. In addition, the fact that a permanent housing
community may accommodate people from different places also posts
challenge for the development of new inter-personal relations in the
communities. This study concludes by emphasizing the importance of
bringing social, economic and cultural aspects into consideration for
post-disaster relocation..
Abstract: The Chichiawan stream in the Wulin catchment in
Taiwan is the natural habitat of Formosan landlocked salmon. Human
and agriculture activities gradually worsen water quality and impact
the fish habitat negatively. To protect and manage Formosan
landlocked salmon habitat, it is important to understand a variety
land-uses affect on the watershed responses to storms. This study
discusses watershed responses to the dry-day before a storm event and
a variety of land-uses in the Wulin catchment. Under the land-use
planning in the Wulin catchment, the peak flows during typhoon
events do not have noticeable difference. However, the nutrient
exports can be highly reduced under the strategies of restraining
agriculture activities. Due to the higher affinity of P for soil than that
of N, the exports of TN from overall Wuling catchment were much
greater than Ortho-P. Agriculture mainly centralized in subbasin A,
which is the important source of nutrients in nonpoint source discharge.
The subbasin A supplied about 26% of the TN and 32% of the Ortho-P
discharge in 2004, despite the fact it only covers 19% area of the
Wuling catchment. The subbasin analysis displayed that the
agricultural subbasin A exports higher nutrients per unit area than
other forest subbasins. Additionally, the agricultural subbasin A
contributed a higher percentage to total Ortho-P exports compares to
TN. The results of subbasin analysis might imply the transport of
Ortho-P was similar to the particulate matter which was mainly
influenced by the runoff and affected by the desorption from soil
particles while the TN (dominated as nitrate-N) was mainly influenced
by base-flow.
Abstract: The mathematical modeling of storm surge in sea and
coastal regions such as the South China Sea (SCS) and the Gulf of
Thailand (GoT) are important to study the typhoon characteristics.
The storm surge causes an inundation at a lateral boundary exhibiting
in the coastal zones particularly in the GoT and some part of the SCS.
The model simulations in the three dimensional primitive equations
with a high resolution model are important to protect local properties
and human life from the typhoon surges. In the present study, the
mathematical modeling is used to simulate the typhoon–induced
surges in three case studies of Typhoon Linda 1997. The results
of model simulations at the tide gauge stations can describe the
characteristics of storm surges at the coastal zones.
Abstract: This paper presents a compact thermoelectric power generator system based on temperature difference across the element. The system can transfer the burning heat energy to electric energy directly. The proposed system has a thermoelectric generator and a power control box. In the generator, there are 4 thermoelectric modules (TEMs), each of which uses 2 thermoelectric chips (TEs) and 2 cold sinks, 1 thermal absorber, and 1 thermal conduction flat board. In the power control box, there are 1 storing energy device, 1 converter, and 1 inverter. The total net generating power is about 11W. This system uses commercial portable gas stoves or burns timber or the coal as the heat source, which is easily obtained. It adopts solid-state thermoelectric chips as heat inverter parts. The system has the advantages of being light-weight, quite, and mobile, requiring no maintenance, and havng easily-supplied heat source. The system can be used a as long as burning is allowed. This system works well for highly-mobilized outdoors situations by providing a power for illumination, entertainment equipment or the wireless equipment at refuge. Under heavy storms such as typhoon, when the solar panels become ineffective and the wind-powered machines malfunction, the thermoelectric power generator can continue providing the vital power.
Abstract: The mountain road slope failures triggered by
earthquake activities and torrential rain namely to create the disaster.
Province Road No. 24 is a main route to the Wutai Township. The area
of the study is located at the mileages between 46K and 47K along the
road. However, the road has been suffered frequent damages as a result
of landslide and slope failures during typhoon seasons. An
understanding of the sliding behaviors in the area appears to be
necessary. Slope failures triggered by earthquake activities and heavy
rainfalls occur frequently. The study is to understand the mechanism
of slope failures and to look for the way to deal with the situation. In
order to achieve these objectives, this paper is based on theoretical and
structural geology data interpretation program to assess the potential
slope sliding behavior. The study showed an intimate relationship
between the landslide behavior of the slopes and the stratum materials,
based on structural geology analysis method to analysis slope stability
and finds the slope safety coefficient to predict the sites of destroyed
layer. According to the case study and parameter analyses results, the
slope mainly slips direction compared to the site located in the
southeast area. Find rainfall to result in the rise of groundwater level is
main reason of the landslide mechanism. Future need to set up
effective horizontal drain at corrective location, that can effective
restrain mountain road slope failures and increase stability of slope.