Abstract: An accurate and proficient artificial neural network
(ANN) based genetic algorithm (GA) is developed for predicting of
nanofluids viscosity. A genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize
the neural network parameters for minimizing the error between the
predictive viscosity and the experimental one. The experimental
viscosity in two nanofluids Al2O3-H2O and CuO-H2O from 278.15
to 343.15 K and volume fraction up to 15% were used from
literature. The result of this study reveals that GA-NN model is
outperform to the conventional neural nets in predicting the viscosity
of nanofluids with mean absolute relative error of 1.22% and 1.77%
for Al2O3-H2O and CuO-H2O, respectively. Furthermore, the results
of this work have also been compared with others models. The
findings of this work demonstrate that the GA-NN model is an
effective method for prediction viscosity of nanofluids and have
better accuracy and simplicity compared with the others models.
Abstract: Due to the stringent legislation for emission of diesel
engines and also increasing demand on fuel consumption, the
importance of detailed 3D simulation of fuel injection, mixing and
combustion have been increased in the recent years. In the present
work, FIRE code has been used to study the detailed modeling of
spray and mixture formation in a Caterpillar heavy-duty diesel
engine. The paper provides an overview of the submodels
implemented, which account for liquid spray atomization, droplet
secondary break-up, droplet collision, impingement, turbulent
dispersion and evaporation. The simulation was performed from
intake valve closing (IVC) to exhaust valve opening (EVO). The
predicted in-cylinder pressure is validated by comparing with
existing experimental data. A good agreement between the predicted
and experimental values ensures the accuracy of the numerical
predictions collected with the present work. Predictions of engine
emissions were also performed and a good quantitative agreement
between measured and predicted NOx and soot emission data were
obtained with the use of the present Zeldowich mechanism and
Hiroyasu model. In addition, the results reported in this paper
illustrate that the numerical simulation can be one of the most
powerful and beneficial tools for the internal combustion engine
design, optimization and performance analysis.
Abstract: Predicting short term wind speed is essential in order
to prevent systems in-action from the effects of strong winds. It also
helps in using wind energy as an alternative source of energy, mainly
for Electrical power generation. Wind speed prediction has
applications in Military and civilian fields for air traffic control,
rocket launch, ship navigation etc. The wind speed in near future
depends on the values of other meteorological variables, such as
atmospheric pressure, moisture content, humidity, rainfall etc. The
values of these parameters are obtained from a nearest weather
station and are used to train various forms of neural networks. The
trained model of neural networks is validated using a similar set of
data. The model is then used to predict the wind speed, using the
same meteorological information. This paper reports an Artificial
Neural Network model for short term wind speed prediction, which
uses back propagation algorithm.
Abstract: For numerical prediction of the NOX in the exhaust of
a compression ignition engine a model was developed by considering
the parameter equivalence ratio. This model was validated by
comparing the predicted results of NOX with experimental ones. The
ultimate aim of the work was to access the applicability, robustness
and performance of the improved NOX model against other NOX
models.
Abstract: The aim of this research is to use artificial neural networks computing technology for estimating the net heating value (NHV) of crude oil by its Properties. The approach is based on training the neural network simulator uses back-propagation as the learning algorithm for a predefined range of analytically generated well test response. The network with 8 neurons in one hidden layer was selected and prediction of this network has been good agreement with experimental data.
Abstract: Gold passbook is an investing tool that is especially
suitable for investors to do small investment in the solid gold. The gold
passbook has the lower risk than other ways investing in gold, but its
price is still affected by gold price. However, there are many factors
can cause influences on gold price. Therefore, building a model to
predict the price of gold passbook can both reduce the risk of
investment and increase the benefits. This study investigates the
important factors that influence the gold passbook price, and utilize
the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) to build the predictive
model. This method can not only obtain the significant variables but
also perform well in prediction. Finally, the significant variables of
gold passbook price, which can be predicted by GMDH, are US dollar
exchange rate, international petroleum price, unemployment rate,
whole sale price index, rediscount rate, foreign exchange reserves,
misery index, prosperity coincident index and industrial index.
Abstract: The wind resource in the Italian site of Lendinara
(RO) is analyzed through a systematic anemometric campaign
performed on the top of the bell tower, at an altitude of over 100 m
above the ground. Both the average wind speed and the Weibull
distribution are computed. The resulting average wind velocity is in
accordance with the numerical predictions of the Italian Wind Atlas,
confirming the accuracy of the extrapolation of wind data adopted for
the evaluation of wind potential at higher altitudes with respect to the
commonly placed measurement stations.
Abstract: The coalescer process is one of the methods for oily water treatment by increasing the oil droplet size in order to enhance the separating velocity and thus effective separation. However, the presence of surfactants in an oily emulsion can limit the obtained mechanisms due to the small oil size related with stabilized emulsion. In this regard, the purpose of this research is to improve the efficiency of the coalescer process for treating the stabilized emulsion. The effects of bed types, bed height, liquid flow rate and stage coalescer (step-bed) on the treatment efficiencies in term of COD values were studied. Note that the treatment efficiency obtained experimentally was estimated by using the COD values and oil droplet size distribution. The study has shown that the plastic media has more effective to attach with oil particles than the stainless one due to their hydrophobic properties. Furthermore, the suitable bed height (3.5 cm) and step bed (3.5 cm with 2 steps) were necessary in order to well obtain the coalescer performance. The application of step bed coalescer process in reactor has provided the higher treatment efficiencies in term of COD removal than those obtained with classical process. The proposed model for predicting the area under curve and thus treatment efficiency, based on the single collector efficiency (ηT) and the attachment efficiency (α), provides relatively a good coincidence between the experimental and predicted values of treatment efficiencies in this study.
Abstract: Web usage mining has become a popular research
area, as a huge amount of data is available online. These data can be
used for several purposes, such as web personalization, web structure
enhancement, web navigation prediction etc. However, the raw log
files are not directly usable; they have to be preprocessed in order to
transform them into a suitable format for different data mining tasks.
One of the key issues in the preprocessing phase is to identify web
users. Identifying users based on web log files is not a
straightforward problem, thus various methods have been developed.
There are several difficulties that have to be overcome, such as client
side caching, changing and shared IP addresses and so on. This paper
presents three different methods for identifying web users. Two of
them are the most commonly used methods in web log mining
systems, whereas the third on is our novel approach that uses a
complex cookie-based method to identify web users. Furthermore we
also take steps towards identifying the individuals behind the
impersonal web users. To demonstrate the efficiency of the new
method we developed an implementation called Web Activity
Tracking (WAT) system that aims at a more precise distinction of
web users based on log data. We present some statistical analysis
created by the WAT on real data about the behavior of the Hungarian
web users and a comprehensive analysis and comparison of the three
methods
Abstract: The prediction of Software quality during development life cycle of software project helps the development organization to make efficient use of available resource to produce the product of highest quality. “Whether a module is faulty or not" approach can be used to predict quality of a software module. There are numbers of software quality prediction models described in the literature based upon genetic algorithms, artificial neural network and other data mining algorithms. One of the promising aspects for quality prediction is based on clustering techniques. Most quality prediction models that are based on clustering techniques make use of K-means, Mixture-of-Guassians, Self-Organizing Map, Neural Gas and fuzzy K-means algorithm for prediction. In all these techniques a predefined structure is required that is number of neurons or clusters should be known before we start clustering process. But in case of Growing Neural Gas there is no need of predetermining the quantity of neurons and the topology of the structure to be used and it starts with a minimal neurons structure that is incremented during training until it reaches a maximum number user defined limits for clusters. Hence, in this work we have used Growing Neural Gas as underlying cluster algorithm that produces the initial set of labeled cluster from training data set and thereafter this set of clusters is used to predict the quality of test data set of software modules. The best testing results shows 80% accuracy in evaluating the quality of software modules. Hence, the proposed technique can be used by programmers in evaluating the quality of modules during software development.
Abstract: This article illustrates a model selection management approach for virtual prototypes in interactive simulations. In those numerical simulations, the virtual prototype and its environment are modelled as a multiagent system, where every entity (prototype,human, etc.) is modelled as an agent. In particular, virtual prototyp ingagents that provide mathematical models of mechanical behaviour inform of computational methods are considered. This work argues that selection of an appropriate model in a changing environment,supported by models? characteristics, can be managed by the deter-mination a priori of specific exploitation and performance measures of virtual prototype models. As different models exist to represent a single phenomenon, it is not always possible to select the best one under all possible circumstances of the environment. Instead the most appropriate shall be selecting according to the use case. The proposed approach consists in identifying relevant metrics or indicators for each group of models (e.g. entity models, global model), formulate their qualification, analyse the performance, and apply the qualification criteria. Then, a model can be selected based on the performance prediction obtained from its qualification. The authors hope that this approach will not only help to inform engineers and researchers about another approach for selecting virtual prototype models, but also assist virtual prototype engineers in the systematic or automatic model selection.
Abstract: The use of artificial neural network (ANN) modeling
for prediction and forecasting variables in water resources
engineering are being increasing rapidly. Infrastructural applications
of ANN in terms of selection of inputs, architecture of networks,
training algorithms, and selection of training parameters in different
types of neural networks used in water resources engineering have
been reported. ANN modeling conducted for water resources
engineering variables (river sediment and discharge) published in
high impact journals since 2002 to 2011 have been examined and
presented in this review. ANN is a vigorous technique to develop
immense relationship between the input and output variables, and
able to extract complex behavior between the water resources
variables such as river sediment and discharge. It can produce robust
prediction results for many of the water resources engineering
problems by appropriate learning from a set of examples. It is
important to have a good understanding of the input and output
variables from a statistical analysis of the data before network
modeling, which can facilitate to design an efficient network. An
appropriate training based ANN model is able to adopt the physical
understanding between the variables and may generate more effective
results than conventional prediction techniques.
Abstract: Soil chemical and physical properties have important
roles in compartment of the environment and agricultural
sustainability and human health. The objectives of this research is
determination of spatial distribution patterns of Cd, Zn, K, pH, TNV,
organic material and electrical conductivity (EC) in agricultural soils
of Natanz region in Esfehan province. In this study geostatistic and
non-geostatistic methods were used for prediction of spatial
distribution of these parameters. 64 composite soils samples were
taken at 0-20 cm depth. The study area is located in south of
NATANZ agricultural lands with area of 21660 hectares. Spatial
distribution of Cd, Zn, K, pH, TNV, organic material and electrical
conductivity (EC) was determined using geostatistic and geographic
information system. Results showed that Cd, pH, TNV and K data
has normal distribution and Zn, OC and EC data had not normal
distribution. Kriging, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Local
Polynomial Interpolation (LPI) and Redial Basis functions (RBF)
methods were used to interpolation. Trend analysis showed that
organic carbon in north-south and east to west did not have trend
while K and TNV had second degree trend. We used some error
measurements include, mean absolute error(MAE), mean squared
error (MSE) and mean biased error(MBE). Ordinary
kriging(exponential model), LPI(Local polynomial interpolation),
RBF(radial basis functions) and IDW methods have been chosen as
the best methods to interpolating of the soil parameters. Prediction
maps by disjunctive kriging was shown that in whole study area was
intensive shortage of organic matter and more than 63.4 percent of
study area had shortage of K amount.
Abstract: This paper proposes the numerical simulation of the
investment casting of gold jewelry. It aims to study the behavior of
fluid flow during mould filling and solidification and to optimize the
process parameters, which lead to predict and control casting defects
such as gas porosity and shrinkage porosity. A finite difference
method, computer simulation software FLOW-3D was used to
simulate the jewelry casting process. The simplified model was
designed for both numerical simulation and real casting production.
A set of sensor acquisitions were allocated on the different positions
of the wax tree of the model to detect filling times, while a set of
thermocouples were allocated to detect the temperature during
casting and cooling. Those detected data were applied to validate the
results of the numerical simulation to the results of the real casting.
The resulting comparisons signify that the numerical simulation can
be used as an effective tool in investment-casting-process
optimization and casting-defect prediction.
Abstract: Fracture process in mechanically loaded steel fiber
reinforced high-strength (SFRHSC) concrete is characterized by
fibers bridging the crack providing resistance to its opening.
Structural SFRHSC fracture model was created; material fracture
process was modeled, based on single fiber pull-out laws, which were
determined experimentally (for straight fibers, fibers with end hooks
(Dramix), and corrugated fibers (Tabix)) as well as obtained
numerically ( using FEM simulations). For this purpose experimental
program was realized and pull-out force versus pull-out fiber length
was obtained (for fibers embedded into concrete at different depth
and under different angle). Model predictions were validated by
15x15x60cm prisms 4 point bending tests. Fracture surfaces analysis
was realized for broken prisms with the goal to improve elaborated
model assumptions. Optimal SFRHSC structures were recognized.
Abstract: A novel typical day prediction model have been built and validated by the measured data of a grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) system in Macau. Unlike conventional statistical method used by previous study on PV systems which get results by averaging nearby continuous points, the present typical day statistical method obtain the value at every minute in a typical day by averaging discontinuous points at the same minute in different days. This typical day statistical method based on discontinuous point averaging makes it possible for us to obtain the Gaussian shape dynamical distributions for solar irradiance and output power in a yearly or monthly typical day. Based on the yearly typical day statistical analysis results, the maximum possible accumulated output energy in a year with on site climate conditions and the corresponding optimal PV system running time are obtained. Periodic Gaussian shape prediction models for solar irradiance, output energy and system energy efficiency have been built and their coefficients have been determined based on the yearly, maximum and minimum monthly typical day Gaussian distribution parameters, which are obtained from iterations for minimum Root Mean Squared Deviation (RMSD). With the present model, the dynamical effects due to time difference in a day are kept and the day to day uncertainty due to weather changing are smoothed but still included. The periodic Gaussian shape correlations for solar irradiance, output power and system energy efficiency have been compared favorably with data of the PV system in Macau and proved to be an improvement than previous models.
Abstract: This paper proposed a novel model for short term load
forecast (STLF) in the electricity market. The prior electricity
demand data are treated as time series. The model is composed of
several neural networks whose data are processed using a wavelet
technique. The model is created in the form of a simulation program
written with MATLAB. The load data are treated as time series data.
They are decomposed into several wavelet coefficient series using
the wavelet transform technique known as Non-decimated Wavelet
Transform (NWT). The reason for using this technique is the belief
in the possibility of extracting hidden patterns from the time series
data. The wavelet coefficient series are used to train the neural
networks (NNs) and used as the inputs to the NNs for electricity load
prediction. The Scale Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm is used as
the learning algorithm for the NNs. To get the final forecast data, the
outputs from the NNs are recombined using the same wavelet
technique. The model was evaluated with the electricity load data of
Electronic Engineering Department in Mandalay Technological
University in Myanmar. The simulation results showed that the
model was capable of producing a reasonable forecasting accuracy in
STLF.
Abstract: A satellite is being integrated and tested by BISEE (Beijing Institute of Spacecraft Environment Engineering). This paper describes the infrared lamp array simulation technology used for satellite thermal balance and thermal vacuum test. These tests were performed in KM6 space environmental simulator in Beijing, China. New software and hardware developed by BISEE, along with enhanced heat flux uniformity, provided for well accomplished thermal balance and thermal vacuum tests. The flux uniformity of lamp array was satisfied with test requirement. Monitored background radiometer offered reliable heat flux measurements with remarkable repeatability. Simulation software supplied accurate thermal flux distribution predictions.
Abstract: Actual load, material characteristics and other
quantities often differ from the design values. This can cause worse
function, shorter life or failure of a civil engineering structure, a
machine, vehicle or another appliance. The paper shows main causes
of the uncertainties and deviations and presents a systematic
approach and efficient tools for their elimination or mitigation of
consequences. Emphasis is put on the design stage, which is most
important for reliability ensuring. Principles of robust design and
important tools are explained, including FMEA, sensitivity analysis
and probabilistic simulation methods. The lifetime prediction of
long-life objects can be improved by long-term monitoring of the
load response and damage accumulation in operation. The condition
evaluation of engineering structures, such as bridges, is often based
on visual inspection and verbal description. Here, methods based on
fuzzy logic can reduce the subjective influences.
Abstract: A dynamic stall-corrected Blade Element-Momentum algorithm based on a hybrid polar is validated through the comparison with Sandia experimental measurements on a 5-m diameter wind turbine of Troposkien shape. Different dynamic stall models are evaluated. The numerical predictions obtained using the extended aerodynamic coefficients provided by both Sheldal and Klimas and Raciti Castelli et al. are compared to experimental data, determining the potential of the hybrid database for the numerical prediction of vertical-axis wind turbine performances.