Abstract: In this paper the development of neural network based fuzzy inference system for electricity consumption prediction is considered. The electricity consumption depends on number of factors, such as number of customers, seasons, type-s of customers, number of plants, etc. It is nonlinear process and can be described by chaotic time-series. The structure and algorithms of neuro-fuzzy system for predicting future values of electricity consumption is described. To determine the unknown coefficients of the system, the supervised learning algorithm is used. As a result of learning, the rules of neuro-fuzzy system are formed. The developed system is applied for predicting future values of electricity consumption of Northern Cyprus. The simulation of neuro-fuzzy system has been performed.
Abstract: Estimation of stormwater pollutants is a pre-requisite
for the protection and improvement of the aquatic environment and
for appropriate management options. The usual practice for the
stormwater quality prediction is performed through water quality
modeling. However, the accuracy of the prediction by the models
depends on the proper estimation of model parameters. This paper
presents the estimation of model parameters for a catchment water
quality model developed for the continuous simulation of stormwater
pollutants from a catchment to the catchment outlet. The model is
capable of simulating the accumulation and transportation of the
stormwater pollutants; suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN) and
total phosphorus (TP) from a particular catchment. Rainfall and water
quality data were collected for the Hotham Creek Catchment (HTCC),
Gold Coast, Australia. Runoff calculations from the developed model
were compared with the calculated discharges from the widely used
hydrological models, WBNM and DRAINS. Based on the measured
water quality data, model water quality parameters were calibrated
for the above-mentioned catchment. The calibrated parameters are
expected to be helpful for the best management practices (BMPs)
of the region. Sensitivity analyses of the estimated parameters were
performed to assess the impacts of the model parameters on overall
model estimations of runoff water quality.
Abstract: In this paper, the processing of sonar signals has been
carried out using Minimal Resource Allocation Network (MRAN)
and a Probabilistic Neural Network (PNN) in differentiation of
commonly encountered features in indoor environments. The
stability-plasticity behaviors of both networks have been
investigated. The experimental result shows that MRAN possesses
lower network complexity but experiences higher plasticity than
PNN. An enhanced version called parallel MRAN (pMRAN) is
proposed to solve this problem and is proven to be stable in
prediction and also outperformed the original MRAN.
Abstract: Geographic Profiling has successfully assisted investigations for serial crimes. Considering the multi-cluster feature of serial criminal spots, we propose a Multi-point Centrography model as a natural extension of Single-point Centrography for geographic profiling. K-means clustering is first performed on the data samples and then Single-point Centrography is adopted to derive a probability distribution on each cluster. Finally, a weighted combinations of each distribution is formed to make next-crime spot prediction. Experimental study on real cases demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed model.
Abstract: This paper presents a CFD analysis of the flow field
around a thin flat plate of infinite span inclined at 90° to a fluid
stream of infinite extent. Numerical predictions have been compared
to experimental measurements, in order to assess the potential of the
finite volume code of determining the aerodynamic forces acting on a
bluff body invested by a fluid stream of infinite extent.
Several turbulence models and spatial node distributions have
been tested. Flow field characteristics in the neighborhood of the flat
plate have been investigated, allowing the development of a
preliminary procedure to be used as guidance in selecting the
appropriate grid configuration and the corresponding turbulence
model for the prediction of the flow field over a two-dimensional
vertical flat plate.
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a high capacity image hiding
technology based on pixel prediction and the difference of modified histogram. This approach is used the pixel prediction and the
difference of modified histogram to calculate the best embedding point.
This approach can improve the predictive accuracy and increase the pixel difference to advance the hiding capacity. We also use the
histogram modification to prevent the overflow and underflow. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method within the
same average hiding capacity can still keep high quality of image and low distortion
Abstract: This study presents the application of artificial
neural network for modeling the phenolic compound
migration through vertical soil column. A three layered feed
forward neural network with back propagation training
algorithm was developed using forty eight experimental data
sets obtained from laboratory fixed bed vertical column tests.
The input parameters used in the model were the influent
concentration of phenol(mg/L) on the top end of the soil
column, depth of the soil column (cm), elapsed time after
phenol injection (hr), percentage of clay (%), percentage of
silt (%) in soils. The output of the ANN was the effluent
phenol concentration (mg/L) from the bottom end of the soil
columns. The ANN predicted results were compared with the
experimental results of the laboratory tests and the accuracy of
the ANN model was evaluated.
Abstract: This paper present a new way to find the aerodynamic
characteristic equation of missile for the numerical trajectories
prediction more accurate. The goal is to obtain the polynomial
equation based on two missile characteristic parameters, angle of
attack (α ) and flight speed (ν ). First, the understudied missile is
modeled and used for flow computational model to compute
aerodynamic force and moment. Assume that performance range of
understudied missile where range -10< α
Abstract: Amount of dissolve oxygen in a river has a great direct affect on aquatic macroinvertebrates and this would influence on the region ecosystem indirectly. In this paper it is tried to predict dissolved oxygen in rivers by employing an easy Fuzzy Logic Modeling, Wang Mendel method. This model just uses previous records to estimate upcoming values. For this purpose daily and hourly records of eight stations in Au Sable watershed in Michigan, United States are employed for 12 years and 50 days period respectively. Calculations indicate that for long period prediction it is better to increase input intervals. But for filling missed data it is advisable to decrease the interval. Increasing partitioning of input and output features influence a little on accuracy but make the model too time consuming. Increment in number of input data also act like number of partitioning. Large amount of train data does not modify accuracy essentially, so, an optimum training length should be selected.
Abstract: Importance of software quality is increasing leading to development of new sophisticated techniques, which can be used in constructing models for predicting quality attributes. One such technique is Artificial Neural Network (ANN). This paper examined the application of ANN for software quality prediction using Object- Oriented (OO) metrics. Quality estimation includes estimating maintainability of software. The dependent variable in our study was maintenance effort. The independent variables were principal components of eight OO metrics. The results showed that the Mean Absolute Relative Error (MARE) was 0.265 of ANN model. Thus we found that ANN method was useful in constructing software quality model.
Abstract: In this paper, a methodology of a model based on
predicting the tool forces oblique machining are introduced by
adopting the orthogonal technique. The applied analytical calculation
is mostly based on Devries model and some parts of the methodology
are employed from Amareggo-Brown model. Model validation is
performed by comparing experimental data with the prediction results
on machining titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) based on micro-cutting tool
perspective. Good agreements with the experiments are observed. A
detailed friction form that affected the tool forces also been examined
with reasonable results obtained.
Abstract: Moisture is an important consideration in many
aspects ranging from irrigation, soil chemistry, golf course, corrosion
and erosion, road conditions, weather predictions, livestock feed
moisture levels, water seepage etc. Vegetation and crops always
depend more on the moisture available at the root level than on
precipitation occurrence. In this paper, design of an instrument is
discussed which tells about the variation in the moisture contents of
soil. This is done by measuring the amount of water content in soil by
finding the variation in capacitance of soil with the help of a
capacitive sensor. The greatest advantage of soil moisture sensor is
reduced water consumption. The sensor is also be used to set lower
and upper threshold to maintain optimum soil moisture saturation and
minimize water wilting, contributes to deeper plant root growth
,reduced soil run off /leaching and less favorable condition for insects
and fungal diseases. Capacitance method is preferred because, it
provides absolute amount of water content and also measures water
content at any depth.
Abstract: In this paper, the requirement for Coke quality
prediction, its role in Blast furnaces, and the model output is
explained. By applying method of Artificial Neural Networking
(ANN) using back propagation (BP) algorithm, prediction model has
been developed to predict CSR. Important blast furnace functions
such as permeability, heat exchanging, melting, and reducing
capacity are mostly connected to coke quality. Coke quality is further
dependent upon coal characterization and coke making process
parameters. The ANN model developed is a useful tool for process
experts to adjust the control parameters in case of coke quality
deviations. The model also makes it possible to predict CSR for new
coal blends which are yet to be used in Coke Plant. Input data to the
model was structured into 3 modules, for tenure of past 2 years and
the incremental models thus developed assists in identifying the
group causing the deviation of CSR.
Abstract: In research on natural ventilation, and passive cooling
with forced convection, is essential to know how heat flows in a solid
object and the pattern of temperature distribution on their surfaces,
and eventually how air flows through and convects heat from the
surfaces of steel under roof. This paper presents some results from
running the computational fluid dynamic program (CFD) by
comparison between natural ventilation and forced convection within
roof attic that is received directly from solar radiation. The CFD
program for modeling air flow inside roof attic has been modified to
allow as two cases. First case, the analysis under natural ventilation,
is closed area in roof attic and second case, the analysis under forced
convection, is opened area in roof attic. These extend of all cases to
available predictions of variations such as temperature, pressure, and
mass flow rate distributions in each case within roof attic. The
comparison shows that this CFD program is an effective model for
predicting air flow of temperature and heat transfer coefficient
distribution within roof attic. The result shows that forced convection
can help to reduce heat transfer through roof attic and an around area
of steel core has temperature inner zone lower than natural
ventilation type. The different temperature on the steel core of roof
attic of two cases was 10-15 oK.
Abstract: Random Forests are a powerful classification technique, consisting of a collection of decision trees. One useful feature of Random Forests is the ability to determine the importance of each variable in predicting the outcome. This is done by permuting each variable and computing the change in prediction accuracy before and after the permutation. This variable importance calculation is similar to a one-factor-at a time experiment and therefore is inefficient. In this paper, we use a regular fractional factorial design to determine which variables to permute. Based on the results of the trials in the experiment, we calculate the individual importance of the variables, with improved precision over the standard method. The method is illustrated with a study of student attrition at Monash University.
Abstract: There is increasing evidence that earthquakes produce electromagnetic signals observable at the surface in the extremely low to very low freqency (ELF - VLF) range often in advance to the main event. These precursors are candidates for prediction purposes. Laboratory experiments con´¼ürm that material under load emits an electromagnetic signature, the detailed generation mechanisms how- ever are not well understood yet.
Abstract: The development of the signal compression
algorithms is having compressive progress. These algorithms are
continuously improved by new tools and aim to reduce, an average,
the number of bits necessary to the signal representation by means of
minimizing the reconstruction error. The following article proposes
the compression of Arabic speech signal by a hybrid method
combining the wavelet transform and the linear prediction. The
adopted approach rests, on one hand, on the original signal
decomposition by ways of analysis filters, which is followed by the
compression stage, and on the other hand, on the application of the
order 5, as well as, the compression signal coefficients. The aim of
this approach is the estimation of the predicted error, which will be
coded and transmitted. The decoding operation is then used to
reconstitute the original signal. Thus, the adequate choice of the
bench of filters is useful to the transform in necessary to increase the
compression rate and induce an impercevable distortion from an
auditive point of view.
Abstract: Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for preprocessing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based preprocessing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.
Abstract: Detection of incipient abnormal events is important to
improve safety and reliability of machine operations and reduce losses
caused by failures. Improper set-ups or aligning of parts often leads to
severe problems in many machines. The construction of prediction
models for predicting faulty conditions is quite essential in making
decisions on when to perform machine maintenance. This paper
presents a multivariate calibration monitoring approach based on the
statistical analysis of machine measurement data. The calibration
model is used to predict two faulty conditions from historical reference
data. This approach utilizes genetic algorithms (GA) based variable
selection, and we evaluate the predictive performance of several
prediction methods using real data. The results shows that the
calibration model based on supervised probabilistic principal
component analysis (SPPCA) yielded best performance in this work.
By adopting a proper variable selection scheme in calibration models,
the prediction performance can be improved by excluding
non-informative variables from their model building steps.
Abstract: Solidification cracking and hydrogen cracking are some defects generated in the fusion welding of ultrahigh carbon steels. However, friction stir welding (FSW) of such steels, being a solid-state technique, has been demonstrated to alleviate such problems encountered in traditional welding. FSW include different process parameters that must be carefully defined prior processing. These parameters included but not restricted to: tool feed, tool RPM, tool geometry, tool tilt angle. These parameters form a key factor behind avoiding warm holes and voids behind the tool and in achieving a defect-free weld. More importantly, these parameters directly affect the microstructure of the weld and hence the final mechanical properties of weld. For that, 3D finite element (FE) thermo-mechanical model was developed using DEFORM 3D to simulate FSW of carbon steel. At points of interest in the joint, tracking is done for history of critical state variables such as temperature, stresses, and strain rates. Typical results found include the ability to simulate different weld zones. Simulations predictions were successfully compared to experimental FSW tests. It is believed that such a numerical model can be used to optimize FSW processing parameters to favor desirable defect free weld with better mechanical properties.