Comparison between Deterministic and Probabilistic Stability Analysis, Featuring Consequent Risk Assessment

Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management. 

Numerical Analysis and Influence of the Parameters on Slope Stability

A designing of a structure requires its realization on rough or sloping ground. Besides the problem of the stability of the landslide, the behavior of the foundations that are bearing the structure is influenced by the destabilizing effect of the ground’s slope. This article focuses on the analysis of the slope stability exposed to loading by introducing the different factors influencing the slope’s behavior on the one hand, and on the influence of this slope on the foundation’s behavior on the other hand. This study is about the elastoplastic modelization using FLAC 2D. This software is based on the finite difference method, which is one of the older methods of numeric resolution of differential equations system with initial and boundary conditions. It was developed for the geotechnical simulation calculation. The aim of this simulation is to demonstrate the notable effect of shear modulus « G », cohesion « C », inclination angle (edge) « β », and distance between the foundation and the head of the slope on the stability of the slope as well as the stability of the foundation. In our simulation, the slope is constituted by homogenous ground. The foundation is considered as rigid/hard; therefore, the loading is made by the application of the vertical strengths on the nodes which represent the contact between the foundation and the ground. 

Assessment of Slope Stability by Continuum and Discontinuum Methods

The development of numerical analysis and its application to geomechanics problems have provided geotechnical engineers with extremely powerful tools. One of the most important problems in geotechnical engineering is the slope stability assessment. It is a very difficult task due to several aspects such the nature of the problem, experimental consideration, monitoring, controlling, and assessment. The main objective of this paper is to perform a comparative numerical study between the following methods: The Limit Equilibrium (LEM), Finite Element (FEM), Limit Analysis (LAM) and Distinct Element (DEM). The comparison is conducted in terms of the safety factors and the critical slip surfaces. Through the results, we see the feasibility to analyse slope stability by many methods.

Landfill Failure Mobility Analysis: A Probabilistic Approach

Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Optimization of Tilt Angle for Solar Collectors: A Case Study for Bursa, Turkey

This paper deals with the optimum tilt angle for the solar collector in order to collect the maximum solar radiation. The optimum angle for tilted surfaces varying from 0◦ to 90◦ in steps of 1◦ was computed. In present study, a theoretical model is used to predict the global solar radiation on a tilted surface and to obtain the optimum tilt angle for a solar collector in Bursa, Turkey. Global solar energy radiation on the solar collector surface with an optimum tilt angle is calculated for specific periods. It is determined that the optimum slope angle varies between 0◦ (June) and 59◦ (December) throughout the year. In winter (December, January, and February) the tilt should be 55◦, in spring (March, April, and May) 19.6◦, in summer (June, July, and August) 5.6◦, and in autumn (September, October, and November) 44.3◦. The yearly average of this value was obtained to be 31.1◦ and this would be the optimum fixed slope throughout the year.

Velocity Distribution in Open Channels with Sand: An Experimental Study

In this study, laboratory experiments in open channel flows over a sand bed were conducted. A porous bed (sand bed) with porosity of ε=0.70 and porous thickness of s΄=3 cm was tested. Vertical distributions of velocity were evaluated by using a two-dimensional (2D) Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV). Velocity profiles are measured above the impermeable bed and above the sand bed for the same different total water heights (h= 6, 8, 10 and 12 cm) and for the same slope S=1.5. Measurements of mean velocity indicate the effects of the bed material used (sand bed) on the flow characteristics (Velocity distribution and Reynolds number) in comparison with those above the impermeable bed.

Development of 25A-Size Three-Layer Metal Gasket by Using FEM Simulation

Contact width and contact stress are important design parameters for optimizing corrugated metal gasket performance based on elastic and plastic contact stress. In this study, we used a three-layer metal gasket with Al, Cu, Ni as the outer layer, respectively. A finite element method was employed to develop simulation solution. The gasket model was simulated by using two simulation stages which are forming and tightening simulation. The simulation result shows that aluminum with tangent modulus, Ehal = Eal/150 has the highest slope for contact width. The slope of contact width for plastic mode gasket was higher than the elastic mode gasket.

Rock Slope Stabilization and Protection for Roads and Multi-Storey Structures in Jabal Omar, Saudi Arabia

Jabal Omar is located in the western side of Makkah city in Saudi Arabia. The proposed Jabal Omar Development project includes several multi-storey buildings, roads, bridges and below ground structures founded at various depths. In this study, geological mapping and site inspection which covered pre-selected areas were carried out within the easily accessed parts. Geological features; including rock types, structures, degree of weathering, and geotechnical hazards were observed and analyzed with specified software and also were documented in form of photographs. The presence of joints and fractures in the area made the rock blocks small and weak. The site is full of jointing; it was observed that, the northern side consists of 3 to 4 jointing systems with 2 random fractures associated with dykes. The southern part is affected by 2 to 3 jointing systems with minor fault and shear zones. From the field measurements and observations, it was concluded that, the Jabal Omar intruded by andesitic and basaltic dykes of different thickness and orientation. These dykes made the outcrop weak, highly deformed and made the rock masses sensitive to weathering.

Performance Analysis of BPJLT with Different Gate and Spacer Materials

The paper presents a simulation study of the electrical characteristic of Bulk Planar Junctionless Transistor (BPJLT) using spacer. The BPJLT is a transistor without any PN junctions in the vertical direction. It is a gate controlled variable resistor. The characteristics of BPJLT are analyzed by varying the oxide material under the gate. It can be shown from the simulation that an ideal subthreshold slope of ~60 mV/decade can be achieved by using highk dielectric. The effects of variation of spacer length and material on the electrical characteristic of BPJLT are also investigated in the paper. The ION / IOFF ratio improvement is of the order of 107 and the OFF current reduction of 10-4 is obtained by using gate dielectric of HfO2 instead of SiO2.

Analytical Slope Stability Analysis Based on the Statistical Characterization of Soil Shear Strength

Increasing our ability to solve complex engineering problems is directly related to the processing capacity of computers. By means of such equipments, one is able to fast and accurately run numerical algorithms. Besides the increasing interest in numerical simulations, probabilistic approaches are also of great importance. This way, statistical tools have shown their relevance to the modelling of practical engineering problems. In general, statistical approaches to such problems consider that the random variables involved follow a normal distribution. This assumption tends to provide incorrect results when skew data is present since normal distributions are symmetric about their means. Thus, in order to visualize and quantify this aspect, 9 statistical distributions (symmetric and skew) have been considered to model a hypothetical slope stability problem. The data modeled is the friction angle of a superficial soil in Brasilia, Brazil. Despite the apparent universality, the normal distribution did not qualify as the best fit. In the present effort, data obtained in consolidated-drained triaxial tests and saturated direct shear tests have been modeled and used to analytically derive the probability density function (PDF) of the safety factor of a hypothetical slope based on Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. Therefore, based on this analysis, it is possible to explicitly derive the failure probability considering the friction angle as a random variable. Furthermore, it is possible to compare the stability analysis when the friction angle is modelled as a Dagum distribution (distribution that presented the best fit to the histogram) and as a Normal distribution. This comparison leads to relevant differences when analyzed in light of the risk management.

Landfill Design for Reclamation of Şırnak Coal Mine Dumps: Shalefill Stability and Risk Assessment

By GEO5 FEM program with four rockfill slope modeling and stability analysis was performed for S1, S2, S3 and S4 slopes where landslides of the shalefills were limited. Effective angle of internal friction (φ'°) 17°-22.5°, the effective cohesion (c') from 0.5 to 1.8 kPa, saturated unit weight 1.78-2.43 g/cm3, natural unit weight 1.9-2.35 g/cm3, dry unit weight 1.97-2.40 g/cm3, the permeability coefficient of 1x10-4 - 6.5x10-4 cm/s. In cross-sections of the slope, GEO 5 FEM program possible critical surface tension was examined. Rockfill dump design was made to prevent sliding slopes. Bulk material designated geotechnical properties using also GEO5 programs FEM and stability program via a safety factor determined and calculated according to the values S3 and S4 No. slopes are stable S1 and S2 No. slopes were close to stable state that has been found to be risk. GEO5 programs with limestone rock fill dump through FEM program was found to exhibit stability.

Cellolytic Activity of Bacteria of the Bacillus Genus Isolated from the Soil of Zailiskiy Alatau Slopes

This study was conducted for the investigation of number of cellulolytic bacteria and their ability in decomposition. Seven samples surface soil were collected on cellulose Zailiskii Alatau slopes. Cellulolitic activity of new strains of Bacillus, isolated from soil is determined. Isolated cellulose degrading bacteria were screened for determination of the highest cellulose activity by quantitative assay using Congo red, gravimetric assay and colorimetric DNS method trough of the determination of the parameters of sugar reduction. Strains are assigned to: B.subtilis, B.licheniformis, B. cereus and, В. megaterium. Bacillus strains consisting of several different types of cellulases have broad substrate specificity of cellulase complexes formed by them. Cellulolitic bacteria were recorded to have highest cellulase activity and selected for optimization of cellulase enzyme production.

Simulation of Acoustic Properties of Borate and Tellurite Glasses

Makishima and Mackenzie model was used to simulation of acoustic properties (longitudinal and shear ultrasonic wave velocities, elastic moduli theoretically for many tellurite and borate glasses. The model was proposed mainly depending on the values of the experimentally measured density, which are obtained before. In this search work, we are trying to obtain the values of densities of amorphous glasses (as the density depends on the geometry of the network structure of these glasses). In addition, the problem of simulating the slope of linear regression between the experimentally determined bulk modulus and the product of packing density and experimental Young's modulus, were solved in this search work. The results showed good agreement between the experimentally measured values of densities and both ultrasonic wave velocities, and those theoretically determined.

Experimental Study on Modified Double Slope Solar Still and Modified Basin Type Double Slope Multiwick Solar Still

Water is essential for life and fresh water is a finite resource that is becoming scarce day by day even though it is recycled by hydrological cycle. The fresh water reserves are being polluted due to expanding irrigation, industries, urban population and its development. Contaminated water leads to several health problems. With the increasing demand of fresh water, solar distillation is an alternate solution which uses solar energy to evaporate water and then to condense it, thereby collecting distilled water within or outside the same system to use it as potable water. The structure that houses the process is known as a 'solar still'. In this paper, ‘Modified double slope solar still (MDSSS)’ & 'Modified double slope basin type multiwick solar still (MDSBMSS)' have been designed to convert saline, brackish water into drinking water. In this work two different modified solar stills are fabricated to study the performance of these solar stills. For modification of solar stills, Fibre Reinforced Plastic (FRP) and Acrylic sheets are used. The experiments in MDSBMSS and MDSSS was carried on 10 September 2015 & 5 November 2015 respectively. Performances of the stills were investigated. The amount of distillate has been found 3624 Ml/day in MDSBMSS on 10 September 2015 and 2400 Ml/day in MDSSS on 5 November 2015.

Thermal Analysis of Photovoltaic Integrated Greenhouse Solar Dryer

Present study focused on the utilization of solar energy by the help of photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer under forced mode. A single slope photovoltaic greenhouse solar dryer has been proposed and thermal modelling has been developed. Various parameters have been calculated by thermal modelling such as greenhouse room temperature, cell temperature, crop temperature and air temperature at exit of greenhouse. Further cell efficiency, thermal efficiency, and overall thermal efficiency have been calculated for a typical day of May and November. It was found that system can generate equivalent thermal energy up to 7.65 kW and 6.66 kW per day for clear day of May and November respectively.

Development of Map of Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index: GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue Provinces

Flash flood is occurred in short time rainfall interval: from 1 hour to 12 hours in small and medium basins. Flash floods typically have two characteristics: large water flow and big flow velocity. Flash flood is occurred at hill valley site (strip of lowland of terrain) in a catchment with large enough distribution area, steep basin slope, and heavy rainfall. The risk of flash floods is determined through Gridded Basin Flash Flood Potential Index (GBFFPI). Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) is determined through terrain slope flash flood index, soil erosion flash flood index, land cover flash floods index, land use flash flood index, rainfall flash flood index. Determining GBFFPI, each cell in a map can be considered as outlet of a water accumulation basin. GBFFPI of the cell is determined as basin average value of FFPI of the corresponding water accumulation basin. Based on GIS, a tool is developed to compute GBFFPI using ArcObjects SDK for .NET. The maps of GBFFPI are built in two types: GBFFPI including rainfall flash flood index (real time flash flood warning) or GBFFPI excluding rainfall flash flood index. GBFFPI Tool can be used to determine a high flash flood potential site in a large region as quick as possible. The GBFFPI is improved from conventional FFPI. The advantage of GBFFPI is that GBFFPI is taking into account the basin response (interaction of cells) and determines more true flash flood site (strip of lowland of terrain) while conventional FFPI is taking into account single cell and does not consider the interaction between cells. The GBFFPI Map of QuangNam, QuangNgai, DaNang, Hue is built and exported to Google Earth. The obtained map proves scientific basis of GBFFPI.

Simulating the Interaction between Groundwater and Brittle Failure in Open Pit Slopes

This paper presents the results of a study on the influence of varying percentages of rock bridges along a basal surface defining a biplanar failure mode. A pseudo-coupled-hydromechanical brittle fracture analysis is adopted using the state-of-the-art code Slope Model. Model results show that rock bridge failure is strongly influenced by the incorporation of groundwater pressures. The models show that groundwater pressure can promote total failure of a 5% rock bridge along the basal surface. Once the percentage of the rock bridges increases to 10 and 15%, although, the rock bridges are broken, full interconnection of the surface defining the basal surface of the biplanar mode does not occur. Increased damage is caused when the rock bridge is located at the daylighting end of the basal surface in proximity to the blast damage zone. As expected, some cracking damage is experienced in the blast damage zone, where properties representing a good quality controlled damage blast technique were assumed. Model results indicate the potential increase of permeability towards the blast damage zone.

Ecosystem Post-Wildfire Effects of Thasos Island

Fires is one of the main types of disturbances that shape ecosystems in the Mediterranean region. However nowadays, climate alterations towards higher temperatures result on increased levels of fire intensity, frequency and spread as well as difficulties for natural regeneration to occur. Thasos Island is one of the Greek islands that has experienced those problems. Since 1984, a series of wildfires led to the reduction of forest cover from 61.6% to almost 20%. The negative impacts were devastating in many different aspects for the island. The absence of plant cover, post-wildfire precipitation and steep slopes were the major factors that induced severe soil erosion and intense floods. That also resulted to serious economic problems to the local communities and the inability of the burnt areas to regenerate naturally. Despite the substantial amount of published work regarding Thasos wildfires, there is no information related to post-wildfire effects on factors such as soil erosion. More research related to post-fire effects should help to an overall assessment of the negative impacts of wildfires on land degradation through processes such as soil erosion and flooding.

Flutter Analysis of Slender Beams with Variable Cross Sections Based on Integral Equation Formulation

This paper studies a mathematical model based on the integral equations for dynamic analyzes numerical investigations of a non-uniform or multi-material composite beam. The beam is subjected to a sub-tangential follower force and elastic foundation. The boundary conditions are represented by generalized parameterized fixations by the linear and rotary springs. A mathematical formula based on Euler-Bernoulli beam theory is presented for beams with variable cross-sections. The non-uniform section introduces non-uniformity in the rigidity and inertia of beams and consequently, more complicated equilibrium who governs the equation. Using the boundary element method and radial basis functions, the equation of motion is reduced to an algebro-differential system related to internal and boundary unknowns. A generalized formula for the deflection, the slope, the moment and the shear force are presented. The free vibration of non-uniform loaded beams is formulated in a compact matrix form and all needed matrices are explicitly given. The dynamic stability analysis of slender beam is illustrated numerically based on the coalescence criterion. A realistic case related to an industrial chimney is investigated.

The Genesis of the Anomalous Sernio Fan, Valtellina, Northern Italy

Massive rock avalanches formed some of the largest landslide deposits on Earth and they represent one of the major geohazards in high-relief mountains. This paper interprets a very large sedimentary fan (the Sernio fan, Valtellina, Northern Italy), located 20 Km SW from Val Pola Rock avalanche (1987), as the deposit of a partial collapse of a Deep Seated Gravitational Slope Deformation (DSGSD), afterwards eroded and buried by debris flows. The proposed emplacement sequence has been reconstructed based on geomorphological, structural and mechanical evidences. The Sernio fan is actually considered anomalous with reference to the very high ratio between the fan area (≈ 4.5km2) and the basin area (≈ 3km2). The morphology of the fan area is characterised by steep slopes (dip ≈ 20%) and the fan apex is extended for 1.8 km inside the small catchment basin. This sedimentary fan was originated by a landslide that interested a part of a large deep-seated gravitational slope deformation, involving a wide area of about 55 km². The main controlling factor is tectonic and it is related to the proximity to regional fault systems and the consequent occurrence of fault weak rocks (GSI locally lower than 10 with compressive stress lower than 20MPa). Moreover, the fan deposit shows sedimentary evidences of recent debris flow events. The best current explanation of the Sernio fan involves an initial failure of some hundreds of Mm3. The run-out was quite limited because of the morphology of Valtellina’s valley floor, and the deposit filled the main valley forming a landslide dam, as confirmed by the lacustrine deposits detected upstream the fan. Nowadays the debris flow events represent the main hazard in the study area.