Abstract: Slope stability analyses are largely carried out by deterministic methods and evaluated through a single security factor. Although it is known that the geotechnical parameters can present great dispersal, such analyses are considered fixed and known. The probabilistic methods, in turn, incorporate the variability of input key parameters (random variables), resulting in a range of values of safety factors, thus enabling the determination of the probability of failure, which is an essential parameter in the calculation of the risk (probability multiplied by the consequence of the event). Among the probabilistic methods, there are three frequently used methods in geotechnical society: FOSM (First-Order, Second-Moment), Rosenblueth (Point Estimates) and Monte Carlo. This paper presents a comparison between the results from deterministic and probabilistic analyses (FOSM method, Monte Carlo and Rosenblueth) applied to a hypothetical slope. The end was held to evaluate the behavior of the slope and consequent risk analysis, which is used to calculate the risk and analyze their mitigation and control solutions. It can be observed that the results obtained by the three probabilistic methods were quite close. It should be noticed that the calculation of the risk makes it possible to list the priority to the implementation of mitigation measures. Therefore, it is recommended to do a good assessment of the geological-geotechnical model incorporating the uncertainty in viability, design, construction, operation and closure by means of risk management.
Abstract: In nearly all earthquakes of the past century that
resulted in moderate to significant damage, the occurrence of postearthquake
fire ignition (PEFI) has imposed a serious hazard and
caused severe damage, especially in urban areas. In order to reduce
the loss of life and property caused by post-earthquake fires, there is
a crucial need for predictive models to estimate the PEFI risk. The
parameters affecting PEFI risk can be categorized as: 1) factors
influencing fire ignition in normal (non-earthquake) condition,
including floor area, building category, ignitability, type of appliance,
and prevention devices, and 2) earthquake related factors contributing
to the PEFI risk, including building vulnerability and earthquake
characteristics such as intensity, peak ground acceleration, and peak
ground velocity. State-of-the-art statistical PEFI risk models are
solely based on limited available earthquake data, and therefore they
cannot predict the PEFI risk for areas with insufficient earthquake
records since such records are needed in estimating the PEFI model
parameters. In this paper, the correlation between normal condition
ignition risk, peak ground acceleration, and PEFI risk is examined in
an effort to offer a means for predicting post-earthquake ignition
events. An illustrative example is presented to demonstrate how such
correlation can be employed in a seismic area to predict PEFI hazard.
Abstract: Financial innovations can be regarded as the cause
and the effect of the evolution of the financial system. Most of
financial innovations are created by various financial institutions for
their own purposes and needs. However, due to their diversity,
financial innovations can be also applied by various business entities
(other than financial institutions).
This paper focuses on the potential application of financial
innovations by non-financial companies. It is assumed that financial
innovations may be effectively applied in all fields of corporate
financial decisions integrating financial management with the risk
management process. Appropriate application of financial
innovations may enhance the development of the company and
increase its value by improving its financial situation and reducing
the level of risk. On the other hand, misused financial innovations
may become the source of extra risk for the company threatening its
further operation.
The main objective of the paper is to identify the major types of
financial innovations offered to non-financial companies by the
banking system in Poland. It also aims at identifying the main factors
determining the creation of financial innovations in the banking
system in Poland and indicating future directions of their
development.
This paper consists of conceptual and empirical part. Conceptual
part based on theoretical study is focused on the determinants of the
process of financial innovations and their application by the nonfinancial
companies. Theoretical study is followed by the empirical
research based on the analysis of the actual offer of the 20 biggest
banks operating in Poland with regard to financial innovations
offered to SMEs and large corporations. These innovations are
classified according to the main functions of the integrated financial
management, such as financing, investment, working capital
management and risk management.
Empirical study has proved that the biggest banks operating in the
Polish market offer to their business customers many types and
classes of financial innovations. This offer appears vast and adequate
to the needs and purposes of the Polish non-financial companies. It
was observed that financial innovations pertained to financing
decisions dominate in the banks’ offer. However, due to high
diversification of the offered financial innovations, business
customers may effectively apply them in all fields and areas of
integrated financial management. It should be underlined, that the
banks’ offer is highly dispersed, which may limit the implementation
of financial innovations in the corporate finance. It would be also
recommended for the banks operating in the Polish market to
intensify the education campaign aiming at increasing knowledge
about financial innovations among business customers.
Abstract: The past two decades, Thailand faced the natural
disasters, for instance, Gay typhoon in 1989, tsunami in 2004, and
huge flood in 2011. The disaster management in Thailand was
improved both structure and mechanism for cope with the natural
disaster since 2007. However, the natural disaster management in
Thailand has various problems, for examples, cooperation between
related an organizations have not unity, inadequate resources, the
natural disaster management of public sectors not proactive, people
has not awareness the risk of the natural disaster, and communities
did not participate in the natural disaster management.
Objective of this study is to find the methods for capacity building
in the natural disaster management of Thailand. The concept and
information about the capacity building and the natural disaster
management of Thailand were reviewed and analyzed by classifying
and organizing data. The result found that the methods for capacity
building in the natural disaster management of Thailand should be
consist of 1) link operation and information in the natural disaster
management between nation, province, local and community levels,
2) enhance competency and resources of public sectors which relate
to the natural disaster management, 3) establish proactive natural
disaster management both planning and implementation, 4)
decentralize the natural disaster management to local government
organizations, 5) construct public awareness in the natural disaster
management to community, 6) support Community Based Disaster
Risk Management (CBDRM) seriously, and 7) emphasis on
participation in the natural disaster management of all stakeholders.
Abstract: Normally business changes are made in order to
change a level of activity in some way, whether it is sales, cash flow,
productivity, or product portfolio. When attempts are made to make
such changes, too often the business reverts to the old levels of
activity as soon as management attention is diverted. Risk
management is a field of growing interest to project managers as well
as in general business and organizational management. There are
several approaches used to manage risk in projects and this paper is a
brief outline of some that you might encounter, with an indication of
their strengths and weaknesses.
Abstract: While financial institutions have faced difficulties
over the years for a multitude of reasons, the major cause of serious
banking problems continues to be directly related to lax credit
standards for borrowers and counterparties, poor portfolio risk
management, or a lack of attention to changes in economic or other
circumstances that can lead to a deterioration in the credit standing of
a bank's counterparties. Credit risk is most simply defined as the
potential that a bank borrower or counterparty will fail to meet its
obligations in accordance with agreed terms. The goal of credit risk
management is to maximize a bank's risk-adjusted rate of return by
maintaining credit risk exposure within acceptable parameters. Banks
need to manage the credit risk inherent in the entire portfolio as well
as the risk in individual credits or transactions. Banks should also
consider the relationships between credit risk and other risks. The
effective management of credit risk is a critical component of a
comprehensive approach to risk management and essential to the
long-term success of any banking organization. In this research we
also study the relationship between credit risk indices and borrower-s
timely payback in Karafarin bank.
Abstract: R&D risk management has been suggested as one of
the management approaches for accomplishing the goals of public
R&D investment. The investment in basic science and core technology
development is the essential roles of government for securing the
social base needed for continuous economic growth. And, it is also an
important role of the science and technology policy sectors to generate
a positive environment in which the outcomes of public R&D can be
diffused in a stable fashion by controlling the uncertainties and risk
factors in advance that may arise during the application of such
achievements to society and industry. Various policies have already
been implemented to manage uncertainties and variables that may
have negative impact on accomplishing public R& investment goals.
But we may derive new policy measures for complementing the
existing policies and for exploring progress direction by analyzing
them in a policy package from the viewpoint of R&D risk
management.