Abstract: This paper proposes a method that predicts attractive
evaluation objects. In the learning phase, the method inductively
acquires trend rules from complex sequential data. The data is
composed of two types of data. One is numerical sequential data.
Each evaluation object has respective numerical sequential data. The
other is text sequential data. Each evaluation object is described in
texts. The trend rules represent changes of numerical values related
to evaluation objects. In the prediction phase, the method applies
new text sequential data to the trend rules and evaluates which
evaluation objects are attractive. This paper verifies the effect of the
proposed method by using stock price sequences and news headline
sequences. In these sequences, each stock brand corresponds to an
evaluation object. This paper discusses validity of predicted attractive
evaluation objects, the process time of each phase, and the possibility
of application tasks.
Abstract: Groundwater is one of the most important water
resources in Fars province. Based on this study, 95 percent of the
total annual water consumption in Fars is used for agriculture,
whereas the percentages for domestic and industrial uses are 4 and 1
percent, respectively. Population growth, urban and industrial
growth, and agricultural development in Fars have created a
condition of water stress. In this province, farmers and other users are
pumping groundwater faster than its natural replenishment rate,
causing a continuous drop in groundwater tables and depletion of this
resource. In this research variation of groundwater level, their effects
and ways to help control groundwater levels in aquifer of the Kavar-
Maharloo plains in Fars plain were evaluated .Excessive
exploitation of groundwater in this aquifer caused the groundwater
levels fall too fast or to unacceptable levels. The average drawdown
of the groundwater level in this plain were 17 meters during
1995 to 2006. The purpose of this study is to evaluate water level
changes in the Kavar-Maharloo Aquifer in the Fars province in order
to determine the areas of greatest depletion, the cause of depletion,
and predict the remaining life of the aquifer.
Abstract: Improvement in CAE methods has an important role for shortening of the vehicle product development time. It is provided that validation of the design and improvements in terms of durability can be done without hardware prototype production. In recent years, several different methods have been developed in order to investigate fatigue damage of the vehicle. The intended goal among these methods is prediction of fatigue damage in a short time with reduced costs. This study developed a new fatigue damage prediction method in the automotive sector using power spectrum densities of accelerations. This study also confirmed that the weak region in vehicle can be easily detected with the method developed in this study which results were compared with conventional method.
Abstract: User-based Collaborative filtering (CF), one of the
most prevailing and efficient recommendation techniques, provides
personalized recommendations to users based on the opinions of other
users. Although the CF technique has been successfully applied in
various applications, it suffers from serious sparsity problems. The
cloud-model approach addresses the sparsity problems by
constructing the user-s global preference represented by a cloud
eigenvector. The user-based CF approach works well with dense
datasets while the cloud-model CF approach has a greater
performance when the dataset is sparse. In this paper, we present a
hybrid approach that integrates the predictions from both the
user-based CF and the cloud-model CF approaches. The experimental
results show that the proposed hybrid approach can ameliorate the
sparsity problem and provide an improved prediction quality.
Abstract: Model Predictive Control (MPC) is increasingly being
proposed for real time applications and embedded systems. However
comparing to PID controller, the implementation of the MPC in
miniaturized devices like Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA)
and microcontrollers has historically been very small scale due to its
complexity in implementation and its computation time requirement.
At the same time, such embedded technologies have become an
enabler for future manufacturing enterprises as well as a transformer
of organizations and markets. Recently, advances in microelectronics
and software allow such technique to be implemented in embedded
systems. In this work, we take advantage of these recent advances
in this area in the deployment of one of the most studied and
applied control technique in the industrial engineering. In fact in
this paper, we propose an efficient framework for implementation
of Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) in the performed STM32
microcontroller. The STM32 keil starter kit based on a JTAG interface
and the STM32 board was used to implement the proposed GPC
firmware. Besides the GPC, the PID anti windup algorithm was
also implemented using Keil development tools designed for ARM
processor-based microcontroller devices and working with C/Cµ
langage. A performances comparison study was done between both
firmwares. This performances study show good execution speed and
low computational burden. These results encourage to develop simple
predictive algorithms to be programmed in industrial standard hardware.
The main features of the proposed framework are illustrated
through two examples and compared with the anti windup PID
controller.
Abstract: In this work, bending fatigue life of notched
specimens with various notch geometries and dimensions is
investigated by experiment and Manson-Caffin theoretical method. In
this theoretical method, fatigue life of notched specimens is
calculated using the fatigue life obtained from the experiments for
plain specimens (without notch). Three notch geometries including
∪-shape, ∨-shape and C -shape notches are considered in this
investigation. The experiments are conducted on a rotary bending
Moore machine. The specimens are made of a low carbon steel alloy,
which has wide application in industry. The stress- life curves are
captured for all notched specimen by experiment. The results indicate
that Manson-Caffin analytical method cannot adequately predict
the fatigue life of notched specimen. However, it seems that the
difference between the experiments and Manson-Caffin predictions
can be compensated by a proportional factor.
Abstract: A proof of convergence of a new continuation algorithm for computing the Analytic SVD for a large sparse parameter– dependent matrix is given. The algorithm itself was developed and numerically tested in [5].
Abstract: Cognitive models allow predicting some aspects of utility
and usability of human machine interfaces (HMI), and simulating
the interaction with these interfaces. The action of predicting is based
on a task analysis, which investigates what a user is required to do
in terms of actions and cognitive processes to achieve a task. Task
analysis facilitates the understanding of the system-s functionalities.
Cognitive models are part of the analytical approaches, that do not
associate the users during the development process of the interface.
This article presents a study about the evaluation of a human
machine interaction with a contextual assistant-s interface using ACTR
and GOMS cognitive models. The present work shows how these
techniques may be applied in the evaluation of HMI, design and
research by emphasizing firstly the task analysis and secondly the
time execution of the task. In order to validate and support our
results, an experimental study of user performance is conducted at
the DOMUS laboratory, during the interaction with the contextual
assistant-s interface. The results of our models show that the GOMS
and ACT-R models give good and excellent predictions respectively
of users performance at the task level, as well as the object level.
Therefore, the simulated results are very close to the results obtained
in the experimental study.
Abstract: Vector quantization is a powerful tool for speech
coding applications. This paper deals with LPC Coding of speech
signals which uses a new technique called Multi Switched Split
Vector Quantization (MSSVQ), which is a hybrid of Multi, switched,
split vector quantization techniques. The spectral distortion
performance, computational complexity, and memory requirements
of MSSVQ are compared to split vector quantization (SVQ), multi
stage vector quantization(MSVQ) and switched split vector
quantization (SSVQ) techniques. It has been proved from results that
MSSVQ has better spectral distortion performance, lower
computational complexity and lower memory requirements when
compared to all the above mentioned product code vector
quantization techniques. Computational complexity is measured in
floating point operations (flops), and memory requirements is
measured in (floats).
Abstract: This paper aims to develop a NOx emission model of
an acid gas incinerator using Nelder-Mead least squares support
vector regression (LS-SVR). Malaysia DOE is actively imposing the
Clean Air Regulation to mandate the installation of analytical
instrumentation known as Continuous Emission Monitoring System
(CEMS) to report emission level online to DOE . As a hardware
based analyzer, CEMS is expensive, maintenance intensive and often
unreliable. Therefore, software predictive technique is often
preferred and considered as a feasible alternative to replace the
CEMS for regulatory compliance. The LS-SVR model is built based
on the emissions from an acid gas incinerator that operates in a LNG
Complex. Simulated Annealing (SA) is first used to determine the
initial hyperparameters which are then further optimized based on the
performance of the model using Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm.
The LS-SVR model is shown to outperform a benchmark model
based on backpropagation neural networks (BPNN) in both training
and testing data.
Abstract: Every commercial bank optimises its asset portfolio
depending on the profitability of assets and chosen or imposed
constraints. This paper proposes and applies a stylized model for
optimising banks' asset and liability structure, reflecting profitability
of different asset categories and their risks as well as costs associated
with different liability categories and reserve requirements. The level
of detail for asset and liability categories is chosen to create a
suitably parsimonious model and to include the most important
categories in the model. It is shown that the most appropriate
optimisation criterion for the model is the maximisation of the ratio
of net interest income to assets. The maximisation of this ratio is
subject to several constraints. Some are accounting identities or
dictated by legislative requirements; others vary depending on the
market objectives for a particular bank. The model predicts variable
amount of assets allocated to loan provision.
Abstract: The value of overall oxygen transfer Coefficient
(KLa), which is the best measure of oxygen transfer in water through
aeration, is obtained by a simple approach, which sufficiently
explains the utility of the method to eliminate the discrepancies due
to inaccurate assumption of saturation dissolved oxygen
concentration. The rate of oxygen transfer depends on number of
factors like intensity of turbulence, which in turns depends on the
speed of rotation, size, and number of blades, diameter and
immersion depth of the rotor, and size and shape of aeration tank, as
well as on physical, chemical, and biological characteristic of water.
An attempt is made in this paper to correlate the overall oxygen
transfer Coefficient (KLa), as an independent parameter with other
influencing parameters mentioned above. It has been estimated that
the simulation equation developed predicts the values of KLa and
power with an average standard error of estimation of 0.0164 and
7.66 respectively and with R2 values of 0.979 and 0.989 respectively,
when compared with experimentally determined values. The
comparison of this model is done with the model generated using
Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and both the models were
found to be in good agreement with each other.
Abstract: Throughput is an important measure of performance of production system. Analyzing and modeling of production throughput is complex in today-s dynamic production systems due to uncertainties of production system. The main reasons are that uncertainties are materialized when the production line faces changes in setup time, machinery break down, lead time of manufacturing, and scraps. Besides, demand changes are fluctuating from time to time for each product type. These uncertainties affect the production performance. This paper proposes Bayesian inference for throughput modeling under five production uncertainties. Bayesian model utilized prior distributions related to previous information about the uncertainties where likelihood distributions are associated to the observed data. Gibbs sampling algorithm as the robust procedure of Monte Carlo Markov chain was employed for sampling unknown parameters and estimating the posterior mean of uncertainties. The Bayesian model was validated with respect to convergence and efficiency of its outputs. The results presented that the proposed Bayesian models were capable to predict the production throughput with accuracy of 98.3%.
Abstract: The prediction of financial time series is a very
complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather
controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends
the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency
Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high
frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the
training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed.
Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based
volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input
and has increased the overall performance of the system.
Abstract: It is well known that a linear dynamic system including
a delay will exhibit limit cycle oscillations when a bang-bang sensor
is used in the feedback loop of a PID controller. A similar behaviour
occurs when a delayed feedback signal is used to train a neural
network. This paper develops a method of predicting this behaviour
by linearizing the system, which can be shown to behave in a manner
similar to an integral controller. Using this procedure, it is possible
to predict the characteristics of the neural network driven limit cycle
to varying degrees of accuracy, depending on the information known
about the system. An application is also presented: the intelligent
control of a spark ignition engine.
Abstract: Prediction of viscosity of natural gas is an important parameter in the energy industries such as natural gas storage and transportation. In this study viscosity of different compositions of natural gas is modeled by using an artificial neural network (ANN) based on back-propagation method. A reliable database including more than 3841 experimental data of viscosity for testing and training of ANN is used. The designed neural network can predict the natural gas viscosity using pseudo-reduced pressure and pseudo-reduced temperature with AARD% of 0.221. The accuracy of designed ANN has been compared to other published empirical models. The comparison indicates that the proposed method can provide accurate results.
Abstract: This research presented in this paper is an on-going
project of an application of neural network and fuzzy models to
evaluate the sociological factors which affect the educational
performance of the students in Sri Lanka. One of its major goals is to
prepare the grounds to device a counseling tool which helps these
students for a better performance at their examinations, especially at
their G.C.E O/L (General Certificate of Education-Ordinary Level)
examination. Closely related sociological factors are collected as raw
data and the noise of these data are filtered through the fuzzy
interface and the supervised neural network is being utilized to
recognize the performance patterns against the chosen social factors.
Abstract: In this paper discrete choice models, Logit and Probit
are examined in order to predict the economic recession or expansion
periods in USA. Additionally we propose an adaptive neuro-fuzzy
inference system with triangular membership function. We examine
the in-sample period 1947-2005 and we test the models in the out-of
sample period 2006-2009. The forecasting results indicate that the
Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model outperforms
significant the Logit and Probit models in the out-of sample period.
This indicates that neuro-fuzzy model provides a better and more
reliable signal on whether or not a financial crisis will take place.
Abstract: The paper investigates the potential of support vector
machines and Gaussian process based regression approaches to
model the oxygen–transfer capacity from experimental data of
multiple plunging jets oxygenation systems. The results suggest the
utility of both the modeling techniques in the prediction of the
overall volumetric oxygen transfer coefficient (KLa) from operational
parameters of multiple plunging jets oxygenation system. The
correlation coefficient root mean square error and coefficient of
determination values of 0.971, 0.002 and 0.945 respectively were
achieved by support vector machine in comparison to values of
0.960, 0.002 and 0.920 respectively achieved by Gaussian process
regression. Further, the performances of both these regression
approaches in predicting the overall volumetric oxygen transfer
coefficient was compared with the empirical relationship for multiple
plunging jets. A comparison of results suggests that support vector
machines approach works well in comparison to both empirical
relationship and Gaussian process approaches, and could successfully
be employed in modeling oxygen-transfer.
Abstract: Carbon disulfide is widely used for the production of
viscose rayon, rubber, and other organic materials and it is a
feedstock for the synthesis of sulfuric acid. The objective of this
paper is to analyze possibilities for efficient production of CS2 from
sour natural gas reformation (H2SMR) (2H2S+CH4 =CS2 +4H2) .
Also, the effect of H2S to CH4 feed ratio and reaction temperature on
carbon disulfide production is investigated numerically in a
reforming reactor. The chemical reaction model is based on an
assumed Probability Density Function (PDF) parameterized by the
mean and variance of mixture fraction and β-PDF shape. The results
show that the major factors influencing CS2 production are reactor
temperature. The yield of carbon disulfide increases with increasing
H2S to CH4 feed gas ratio (H2S/CH4≤4). Also the yield of C(s)
increases with increasing temperature until the temperature reaches
to 1000°K, and then due to increase of CS2 production and
consumption of C(s), yield of C(s) drops with further increase in the
temperature. The predicted CH4 and H2S conversion and yield of
carbon disulfide are in good agreement with result of Huang and TRaissi.