Abstract: Health and Social care (HSc) services planning and scheduling are facing unprecedented challenges, due to the pandemic pressure and also suffer from unplanned spending that is negatively impacted by the global financial crisis. Data-driven approaches can help to improve policies, plan and design services provision schedules using algorithms that assist healthcare managers to face unexpected demands using fewer resources. The paper discusses services packing using statistical significance tests and machine learning (ML) to evaluate demands similarity and coupling. This is achieved by predicting the range of the demand (class) using ML methods such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Random Forests (RF), and Logistic Regression (LGR). The significance tests Chi-Squared and Student’s test are used on data over a 39 years span for which data exist for services delivered in Scotland. The demands are associated using probabilities and are parts of statistical hypotheses. These hypotheses, as their NULL part, assume that the target demand is statistically dependent on other services’ demands. This linking is checked using the data. In addition, ML methods are used to linearly predict the above target demands from the statistically found associations and extend the linear dependence of the target’s demand to independent demands forming, thus, groups of services. Statistical tests confirmed ML coupling and made the prediction statistically meaningful and proved that a target service can be matched reliably to other services while ML showed that such marked relationships can also be linear ones. Zero padding was used for missing years records and illustrated better such relationships both for limited years and for the entire span offering long-term data visualizations while limited years periods explained how well patients numbers can be related in short periods of time or that they can change over time as opposed to behaviours across more years. The prediction performance of the associations were measured using metrics such as Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC) and Accuracy (ACC) as well as the statistical tests Chi-Squared and Student. Co-plots and comparison tables for the RF, CART, and LGR methods as well as the p-value from tests and Information Exchange (IE/MIE) measures are provided showing the relative performance of ML methods and of the statistical tests as well as the behaviour using different learning ratios. The impact of k-neighbours classification (k-NN), Cross-Correlation (CC) and C-Means (CM) first groupings was also studied over limited years and for the entire span. It was found that CART was generally behind RF and LGR but in some interesting cases, LGR reached an AUC = 0 falling below CART, while the ACC was as high as 0.912 showing that ML methods can be confused by zero-padding or by data’s irregularities or by the outliers. On average, 3 linear predictors were sufficient, LGR was found competing well RF and CART followed with the same performance at higher learning ratios. Services were packed only when a significance level (p-value) of their association coefficient was more than 0.05. Social factors relationships were observed between home care services and treatment of old people, low birth weights, alcoholism, drug abuse, and emergency admissions. The work found that different HSc services can be well packed as plans of limited duration, across various services sectors, learning configurations, as confirmed by using statistical hypotheses.
Abstract: This study investigates the fiscal policy impact on countries’ economic growth in developing countries with a different external debt level. The fiscal policy effectiveness has been re-emphasized in the global financial crisis of 2008 with the external debt as its new contemporary driver. Different theories have proposed the economic consequence of fiscal policy, specifically for developing countries. However, fiscal policy literature is lacking research regarding the fiscal policy’s effectiveness with the external debt’s contributions through comprehensive study. Also, high levels of external debt will influence economic growth. Through foreign resources and channel of investment in which high level of debt decreases the amount of foreign investment in the developing countries. The finding of this study suggests that only countries with a low external debt level and appropriate fiscal policies and good quality institutions can gain the proper quantity and quality of foreign investors in which will help the economic growth. For this, this research is examining the impact of fiscal policy on developing countries' economic growth in the situation of different external debt levels.
Abstract: This paper identifies leading triggers of deficient episodes in terms of GDP growth based on a sample of countries at different stages of development over 1994-2017. Using logit models, we build early warning systems (EWS) and our results show important differences between developing countries (DCs) and advanced economies (AEs). For AEs, the main predictors of the probability of entering in a GDP growth deficient episode are the deterioration of external imbalances and the vulnerability of fiscal position while DCs face different challenges that need to be considered. The key indicators for them are first, the low ability to pay its debts and second, their belonging or not to a common currency area. We also build homogeneous pools of countries inside AEs and DCs. For AEs, the evolution of the proportion of countries in the riskiest pool is marked first, by three distinct peaks just after the high-tech bubble burst, the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis, and second by a very low minimum level in 2006 and 2007. In contrast, the situation of DCs is characterized first by a relative stability of this proportion and then by an upward trend from 2006, that can be explained by more unfavorable socio-political environment leading to shortcomings in the fiscal consolidation.
Abstract: In the United States in 2007-2010 before the crisis, the US labour market policy focused mainly on providing residents with unemployment insurance, after the recession this policy changed. The aim of the article was to present quantitative research presenting the most effective labor market instruments contributing to reducing unemployment during the crisis in the USA. The article presents research based on the analysis of available documents and statistical data. The results of the conducted research show that the most effective forms of counteracting unemployment at that time were: direct job creation, job search assistance, subsidized employment, training and employment promotion using new technologies, including social media.
Abstract: Financial derivatives are considered to be risky investment instruments which could possibly bring another financial crisis. As prevention, European Union and its member states have released new legal acts adjusting this area of law in recent years. There have been several cases in history of capital markets worldwide where it was shown that legislature may affect behavior of subjects on capital markets. In our paper we analyze main events on selected European stock exchanges in order to apply them on three chosen markets - Czech capital market represented by Prague Stock Exchange, German capital market represented by Deutsche Börse and Polish capital market represented by Warsaw Stock Exchange. We follow time series of development of the sum of listed derivatives on these three stock exchanges in order to evaluate popularity of those exchanges. Afterwards we compare newly listed derivatives in relation to the speed of development of these exchanges. We also make a comparison between trends in derivatives and shares development. We explain how a legal regulation may affect situation on capital markets. If the regulation is too strict, potential investors or traders are not willing to undertake it and move to other markets. On the other hand, if the regulation is too vague, trading scandals occur and the market is not reliable from the prospect of potential investors or issuers. We see that making the regulation stricter usually discourages subjects to stay on the market immediately although making the regulation vaguer to interest more subjects is usually much slower process.
Abstract: House prices in the Australian capital cities were at record levels subsequent to Global Financial Crisis (GFC) 2008 and many believed that foreign investors, especially the Chinese investors, were the main reason for the Australian capital cities’ house prices escalation. This research conducted an Australian cross border semi-structured interviews in Shanghai, China to uncover historical evidence and emerging trend supporting the existence of a significant relationship between overseas investors and residential housing markets performance in Australia subsequent to the GFC 2008. Some unique investment strategies of private investors from China which emphasised on non-capitalist factors such as early education were identified, alongside with some insights on the significant China government policies that have incentivised the cross border investments from China. It is believed that this understanding will assist policy makers to effectively manage the overheated Australian residential property market without compromising the steady flow of FREI.
Abstract: The study investigates the impact of the ongoing financial crisis, started in the 2nd half of 2014, on marketing budgets spent by Fast-moving consumer goods companies. In these conditions, special importance is given to efficient possessory risk management systems. The main objective for establishing and developing possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies in a crisis is to analyze the data relating to the external environment and consumer behavior in a crisis. Another important objective for possessory risk management systems of FMCG companies is to develop measures and mechanisms to maintain and stimulate sales. In this regard, analysis of risks and threats which consumers define as the main reasons affecting their level of consumption become important. It is obvious that in crisis conditions the effective risk management systems responsible for development and implementation of strategies for consumer demand stimulation, as well as the identification, analysis, assessment and management of other types of risks of economic security will be the key to sustainability of a company. In terms of financial and economic crisis, the problem of forming and developing possessory risk management systems becomes critical not only in the context of management models of FMCG companies, but for all the companies operating in other sectors of the Russian economy. This study attempts to analyze the specifics of formation and development of company possessory risk management systems. In the modern economy, special importance among all the types of owner’s risks has the risk of reduction in consumer activity. This type of risk is common not only for the consumer goods trade. Study of consumer activity decline is especially important for Russia due to domestic market of consumer goods being still in the development stage, despite its significant growth. In this regard, it is especially important to form and develop possessory risk management systems for FMCG companies. The authors offer their own interpretation of the process of forming and developing possessory risk management systems within owner’s management models of FMCG companies as well as in Russian economy in general. Proposed methods and mechanisms of problem analysis of formation and development of possessory risk management systems in FMCG companies and the results received can be helpful for researchers interested in problems of consumer goods market development in Russia and overseas.
Abstract: This article investigates liquidity risk management by banks, which has gained significant importance since the global financial crisis of 2008. The issue is of particular interest for countries like Poland, in which foreign capital plays a dominant role. Such an ownership structure poses certain risks to the local banking sector, which faces an increased probability of the withdrawal of funding or assets’ transfers abroad in case of a crisis. Both these factors can have a detrimental influence on the liquidity position of foreign-owned banks and hence negatively affect the financial stability of the whole banking sector. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of a dominating share of foreign investors in the Polish banking sector on the liquidity position of commercial banks. The study hypothesizes that the ownership structure of the Polish banking sector, in which there are banks predominantly controlled by foreign investors, does not pose a threat to the liquidity position of Polish banks. A supplementary research hypothesis is that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-owned banks differs from that of domestic banks. The sample consists of 14 foreign-owned banks and 5 domestic banks owned by local investors, which together constitute approximately 87% of the banking sector’s assets. The data covers the period of 2004–2014. The results of the regression models show no evidence of significant differences in terms of the dynamics of changes of the liquidity buffers between the foreign-owned and domestic banks, although the signs of the coefficients might suggest that the foreign-owned banks were decreasing the holdings of liquid assets at a slower pace over the examined period, compared to the domestic banks. However, no proof of the statistical significance of these findings has been found. The supplementary research hypothesis that the liquidity risk profile of foreign-controlled banks differs from that of domestic banks was rejected.
Abstract: In this paper, we discuss the deteriorated standing of engineering companies, some of the reasons behind it and the problems facing engineering enterprises during the financial crisis. We show the part that financial analysis plays in the detection of the main factors affecting the standing of a company, classify internal problems and the reasons influencing efficiency thereof. The publication contains the analysis of municipal engineering companies in post-Soviet transitional economies. In the wake of the 2008 world financial crisis the issue became even more poignant. It should be said though that even before the problem had been no less acute for some post-Soviet states caught up in a lengthy transitional period. The paper highlights shortcomings in the management of transportation companies, with new, more appropriate methods suggested. In analyzing the financial stability of a company, three elements need to be considered: current assets, investment policy and structural management of the funding sources leveraging the stability, should be focused on. Inappropriate management of the three may create certain financial problems, with timely and accurate detection thereof being an issue in terms of improved standing of an enterprise. In this connection, the publication contains a diagram reflecting the reasons behind the deteriorated financial standing of a company, as well as a flow chart thereof. The main reasons behind low profitability are also discussed.
Abstract: This paper elaborates risk shifting in debt financing system as the ultimate cause of the global financial crisis. In contrast, risk sharing in equity financing like sukuk helps the economic system to be better sustained. Nevertheless, some types of sukuk are haunted by the issue of imitation with bonds. The critics on the imitation issue not only have raised doubt on the ability of sukuk to diminish risk shifting behavior but also the ability of this Islamic financial instrument to ensure better future financial stability. Through that, this paper provides discussion on the possibility of sukuk to induce risk shifting and how equity financing may help sukuk to be free from risk shifting. This paper is important in the sense that sukuk receives a significant demand from investors throughout the world. For this instrument to be supportive in the future economic stability, the issue of imitation needs to be identified and addressed. Furthermore, critics cannot be focused on debts and its ability to gauge the financial flux but also to sukuk due to their structures similarity.
Abstract: In this work, we attempt to associate firm
characteristics with innovative activity. We collect microdata from
listed firms of selected Eurozone Country-members, after the
beginning of 2007 financial crisis. The following literature, several
indicators of growth and performance were selected and tested for
their ability to interpret innovative activity. The main scope is to
examine the possible differences in performance and growth between
innovative and non-innovative firms, during a severe recession.
Additionally to that, a special focus will be held on whether
macroeconomic performance and national innovation system,
determines the extent of innovators' performance. Preliminary
findings, through correlation matrices and non-parametric tests,
strongly indicate the positive relation between innovative activity and
most of the measures used (profitability, size, employment),
confirming that even during a recessionary period, innovative firms
not only survive but also seem to succeed better economic results in
almost all indexes relative to non-innovative. However, even though
innovators seem to perform better in all economies examined, the
extent of that performance seems to be strongly affected by the
supportive mechanisms (financial and structural) that their country
provides. Thus, it is clear, that the technologically intensive 'gap'
between European South and North, during the economic crisis,
became chaotic, due to the harsh austerity measures and reduced
budgets in those countries, even in sectors with high potentials in
economic activity and employment, impairing the effects of crisis and
enhancing the vicious circle of recession.
Abstract: Despite the financial crisis and ongoing need for cost
cutting, companies all around the world heavily invest in Information
Systems (IS) and underlying Information Technology (IT).
Proliferation of governance of enterprise IT helps companies manage,
or rather, governs IS as a primary business function with executive
management involved in making decision about IS and IT. The
business value of IT is raising with the involvement of the executive
management in IT decision making process and quality IT
governance mechanisms in place. In this paper the practice of
governing the enterprise IT will be investigated on a sample of the
largest 100 Croatian companies. Research questions posed here will
reveal if there are some formal IT governance mechanisms, are there
any differences in perceived role of IS and IT between CIOs (Chief
Information Officers) and CEOs (Chief Executive Officers) of the
sampled companies and what are the mechanisms to govern massive
investment in enterprise IT.
Abstract: The main objective of this article is to examine the
impact of interest rates on investments in Poland in the context of
financial crisis. The paper also investigates the dependence of bank
loans to enterprises on interbank market rates. The article studies the
impact of interbank market rate on the level of investments in Poland.
Besides, this article focuses on the research of the correlation
between the level of corporate loans and the amount of investments
in Poland in order to determine the indirect impact of central bank
interest rates through the transmission mechanism of monetary policy
on the real economy. To achieve the objective we have used
econometric and statistical research methods like: econometric model
and Pearson correlation coefficient.
This analysis suggests that the central bank reference rate
inversely proportionally affects the level of investments in Poland
and this dependence is moderate. This is also important issue because
it is related to preparing of Poland to accession to euro area. The
research is important from both theoretical and empirical points of
view. The formulated conclusions and recommendations determine
the practical significance of the paper which may be used in the
decision making process of monetary and economic authorities of the
country.
Abstract: Housing loans play an important role in CEE
countries’ economies. This fact is based on their share in total loans
to households and their importance for economic activity and growth
in CEE countries. Therefore, it is important to find out key
determinants of housing loans demand in these countries. The aim of
this study is to research and analyze the determinants of the demand
for housing loans in Croatia. In this regard, the effect of economic
activity, loan terms and real estate prices were analyzed. Also, the
aim of this study is to find out what motivates people to take housing
loans. Therefore, primarily empirical study was conducted among the
Croatian residents. The results show that demand for housing loans is
positively affected by economic growth, higher personal income and
flexible loan terms, while it is negatively affected by interest rate rise.
Abstract: The study is a review of the literature concerning the
consequences of non-standard monetary policy, which are used by
central banks during unconventional periods, threatening banking
sector instability. In particular, the attention was paid to the effects of
non-standard monetary policy tools for financial markets. However,
the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for
financial markets is still not final. The main aim of the study is to
survey consequences of standard and non-standard monetary policy
instruments, implemented during the global financial crisis in the
United States, United Kingdom and euro area, with particular
attention to the results for the stabilization of global financial
markets. The study consists mainly of the empirical review,
indicating the impact of the implementation of these tools for
financial markets. The following research methods were used in the
study: literature studies, including domestic and foreign literature,
cause and effect analysis and statistical analysis.
Abstract: In this study, attempt has been made to investigate the
relationship specifically the causal relation between fund unit prices
of Islamic equity unit trust fund which measure by fund NAV and the
selected macro-economic variables of Malaysian economy by using
VECM causality test and Granger causality test. Monthly data has
been used from Jan, 2006 to Dec, 2012 for all the variables. The
findings of the study showed that industrial production index,
political election and financial crisis are the only variables having
unidirectional causal relationship with fund unit price. However the
global oil price is having bidirectional causality with fund NAV.
Thus, it is concluded that the equity unit trust fund industry in
Malaysia is an inefficient market with respect to the industrial
production index, global oil prices, political election and financial
crisis. However the market is approaching towards informational
efficiency at least with respect to four macroeconomic variables,
treasury bill rate, money supply, foreign exchange rate, and
corruption index.
Abstract: The financial crises caused a collapse in prices of
most asset classes, raising the attention on alternative investments
such as sukuk, a smaller, fast growing but often misunderstood
market. We study diversification benefits of sukuk, their correlation
with other asset classes and the effects of their inclusion in
investment portfolios of institutional and retail investors, through a
comprehensive comparison of their risk/return profiles during and
after the financial crisis.
We find a beneficial performance adjusted for the specific
volatility together with a lower correlation especially during the
financial crisis. The distribution of sukuk returns is positively skewed
and leptokurtic, with a risk/return profile similarly to high yield
bonds. Overall, our results suggest that sukuk present diversification
opportunities, a significant volatility-adjusted performance and lower
correlations especially during the financial crisis.
Our findings are relevant for a number of institutional investors.
Long term investors, such as life insurers would benefit from sukuk’s
protective features during financial crisis yet keeping return and
growth opportunities, whereas banks would gain due to their role of
placers, advisors, market makers or underwriters.
Abstract: One of the most important tasks in the risk
management is the correct determination of probability of default
(PD) of particular financial subjects. In this paper a possibility of
determination of financial institution’s PD according to the creditscoring
models is discussed. The paper is divided into the two parts.
The first part is devoted to the estimation of the three different
models (based on the linear discriminant analysis, logit regression
and probit regression) from the sample of almost three hundred US
commercial banks. Afterwards these models are compared and
verified on the control sample with the view to choose the best one.
The second part of the paper is aimed at the application of the chosen
model on the portfolio of three key Czech banks to estimate their
present financial stability. However, it is not less important to be able
to estimate the evolution of PD in the future. For this reason, the
second task in this paper is to estimate the probability distribution of
the future PD for the Czech banks. So, there are sampled randomly
the values of particular indicators and estimated the PDs’ distribution,
while it’s assumed that the indicators are distributed according to the
multidimensional subordinated Lévy model (Variance Gamma model
and Normal Inverse Gaussian model, particularly). Although the
obtained results show that all banks are relatively healthy, there is
still high chance that “a financial crisis” will occur, at least in terms
of probability. This is indicated by estimation of the various quantiles
in the estimated distributions. Finally, it should be noted that the
applicability of the estimated model (with respect to the used data) is
limited to the recessionary phase of the financial market.
Abstract: The purpose of the present work is to review some
data for the management challenges that the aquaculture industry in
Greece is currently facing. The results indicate that Greek
aquaculture fish farms apply Human Resources Management (HRM)
practices which can increase motivation, commitment and job
satisfaction of their personnel. In turn, these practices can increase
the productivity of the business. The Greek fish farms appear to
invest in research and technological innovation with a good record in
research activities and the generation of patents. Interestingly, the
results of the present work were carried out during the period of the
recent economic crisis in Greece. Several sectors of the Greek
economy were severely affected by the financial problems of the
Greek government and the Greek banks. Under the adverse
economical conditions created by the Greek economic crisis, even the
Greek aquaculture industry, which historically is considered as a
thriving national exporting business sector, experienced harsh
economic and market conditions. As a result of the global, European
and national economic crisis, consumption of fish dropped while
companies had to hold most of their stocked fish in order to regulated
the flow to the market and the price. This occurred at a time where
Banks in Greece had their own financial crisis – banking crisis -
which resulted in limited access to lending for the all business sectors
of the national economy including the Greek aquaculture industry. In
spite of these economic conditions, the Greek aquaculture industry,
after a series of mergers and acquisitions, has now stabilized
production and exhibits very good prospects for future growth.
Evidently, the firms had to cut salaries and on some occasions even
pay their staff in arrears. Nevertheless, the results presented in this
paper indicate that during the economic crisis, the surveyed fish
farms maintained their HRM practices, investing in their human
capital and technological input. In fact, human capital and
technological input are the ticket for future success of companies in
any business sector.
Abstract: This paper provides an analysis of the insurance cycle in the Republic of Croatia and whether they are affected by catastrophic losses on a global level. In general, it is considered that insurance cycles are particularly pronounced in periods of financial crisis, but are also affected by the growing number of catastrophic losses. They cause the change of insurance cycle and premium growth and intensification and narrowing of the coverage conditions, so these variables move in the same direction and these phenomena point to a new cycle. The main goal of this paper is to determine the existence of insurance cycle in the Republic of Croatia and investigate whether catastrophic losses have an influence on insurance cycles.