Abstract: The prediction of financial time series is a very
complicated process. If the efficient market hypothesis holds, then the predictability of most financial time series would be a rather
controversial issue, due to the fact that the current price contains already all available information in the market. This paper extends
the Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System for High Frequency
Trading which is an expert system that is capable of using fuzzy reasoning combined with the pattern recognition capability of neural networks to be used in financial forecasting and trading in high
frequency. However, in order to eliminate unnecessary input in the
training phase a new event based volatility model was proposed.
Taking volatility and the scaling laws of financial time series into consideration has brought about the development of the Intraday Seasonality Observation Model. This new model allows the observation of specific events and seasonalities in data and subsequently removes any unnecessary data. This new event based
volatility model provides the ANFIS system with more accurate input
and has increased the overall performance of the system.
Abstract: This paper is motivated by the aspect of uncertainty in
financial decision making, and how artificial intelligence and soft
computing, with its uncertainty reducing aspects can be used for
algorithmic trading applications that trade in high frequency.
This paper presents an optimized high frequency trading system that
has been combined with various moving averages to produce a hybrid
system that outperforms trading systems that rely solely on moving
averages. The paper optimizes an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference
system that takes both the price and its moving average as input,
learns to predict price movements from training data consisting of
intraday data, dynamically switches between the best performing
moving averages, and performs decision making of when to buy or
sell a certain currency in high frequency.