Abstract: Sociological models (e.g., social network analysis, small-group dynamic and gang models) have historically been used to predict the behavior of terrorist groups. However, they may not be the most appropriate method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations because the models were not initially intended to incorporate violent behavior of its subjects. Rather, models that incorporate life and death competition between subjects, i.e., models utilized by scientists to examine the behavior of wildlife populations, may provide a more accurate analysis. This paper suggests the use of biological models to attain a more robust method for understanding the behavior of terrorist organizations as compared to traditional methods. This study also describes how a biological population model incorporating predator-prey behavior factors can predict terrorist organizational recruitment behavior for the purpose of understanding the factors that govern the growth and decline of terrorist organizations. The Lotka-Volterra, a biological model that is based on a predator-prey relationship, is applied to a highly suggestive case study, that of the Irish Republican Army. This case study illuminates how a biological model can be utilized to understand the actions of a terrorist organization.
Abstract: The present paper was concerned primarily with the
analysis, simulation of the air flow and thermal patterns in a lecture
room. The paper is devoted to numerically investigate the influence
of location and number of ventilation and air conditioning supply and
extracts openings on air flow properties in a lecture room. The work
focuses on air flow patterns, thermal behaviour in lecture room where
large number of students. The effectiveness of an air flow system is
commonly assessed by the successful removal of sensible and latent
loads from occupants with additional of attaining air pollutant at a
prescribed level to attain the human thermal comfort conditions and
to improve the indoor air quality; this is the main target during the
present paper. The study is carried out using computational fluid
dynamics (CFD) simulation techniques as embedded in the
commercially available CFD code (FLUENT 6.2). The CFD
modelling techniques solved the continuity, momentum and energy
conservation equations in addition to standard k – ε model equations
for turbulence closure.
Throughout the investigations, numerical validation is carried out by
way of comparisons of numerical and experimental results. Good
agreement is found among both predictions.
Abstract: Addition of milli or micro sized particles to the heat
transfer fluid is one of the many techniques employed for improving
heat transfer rate. Though this looks simple, this method has
practical problems such as high pressure loss, clogging and erosion
of the material of construction. These problems can be overcome by
using nanofluids, which is a dispersion of nanosized particles in a
base fluid. Nanoparticles increase the thermal conductivity of the
base fluid manifold which in turn increases the heat transfer rate.
Nanoparticles also increase the viscosity of the basefluid resulting in
higher pressure drop for the nanofluid compared to the base fluid. So
it is imperative that the Reynolds number (Re) and the volume
fraction have to be optimum for better thermal hydraulic
effectiveness. In this work, the heat transfer enhancement using
aluminium oxide nanofluid using low and high volume fraction
nanofluids in turbulent pipe flow with constant wall temperature has
been studied by computational fluid dynamic modeling of the
nanofluid flow adopting the single phase approach. Nanofluid, up till
a volume fraction of 1% is found to be an effective heat transfer
enhancement technique. The Nusselt number (Nu) and friction factor
predictions for the low volume fractions (i.e. 0.02%, 0.1 and 0.5%)
agree very well with the experimental values of Sundar and Sharma
(2010). While, predictions for the high volume fraction nanofluids
(i.e. 1%, 4% and 6%) are found to have reasonable agreement with
both experimental and numerical results available in the literature.
So the computationally inexpensive single phase approach can be
used for heat transfer and pressure drop prediction of new nanofluids.
Abstract: Little attention has been paid to information
transmission between the portfolios of large stocks and small stocks in the Korean stock market. This study investigates the return and volatility transmission mechanisms between large and small stocks in
the Korea Exchange (KRX). This study also explores whether bad news in the large stock market leads to a volatility of the small stock
market that is larger than the good news volatility of the large stock market. By employing the Granger causality test, we found
unidirectional return transmissions from the large stocks to medium
and small stocks. This evidence indicates that pat information about
the large stocks has a better ability to predict the returns of the medium and small stocks in the Korean stock market. Moreover, by using the
asymmetric GARCH-BEKK model, we observed the unidirectional relationship of asymmetric volatility transmission from large stocks to
the medium and small stocks. This finding suggests that volatility in
the medium and small stocks following a negative shock in the large
stocks is larger than that following a positive shock in the large stocks.
Abstract: The problem of FIR system parameter estimation has been considered in the paper. A new robust recursive algorithm for simultaneously estimation of parameters and scale factor of prediction residuals in non-stationary environment corrupted by impulsive noise has been proposed. The performance of derived algorithm has been tested by simulations.
Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present two different
approaches of financial distress pre-warning models appropriate for
risk supervisors, investors and policy makers. We examine a sample
of the financial institutions and electronic companies of Taiwan
Security Exchange (TSE) market from 2002 through 2008. We
present a binary logistic regression with paned data analysis. With
the pooled binary logistic regression we build a model including
more variables in the regression than with random effects, while the
in-sample and out-sample forecasting performance is higher in
random effects estimation than in pooled regression. On the other
hand we estimate an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) with Gaussian and Generalized Bell (Gbell) functions and
we find that ANFIS outperforms significant Logit regressions in both
in-sample and out-of-sample periods, indicating that ANFIS is a
more appropriate tool for financial risk managers and for the
economic policy makers in central banks and national statistical
services.
Abstract: The three-time-scale plant model of a wind power
generator, including a wind turbine, a flexible vertical shaft, a Variable
Inertia Flywheel (VIF) module, an Active Magnetic Bearing (AMB)
unit and the applied wind sequence, is constructed. In order to make
the wind power generator be still able to operate as the spindle speed
exceeds its rated speed, the VIF is equipped so that the spindle speed
can be appropriately slowed down once any stronger wind field is
exerted. To prevent any potential damage due to collision by shaft
against conventional bearings, the AMB unit is proposed to regulate
the shaft position deviation. By singular perturbation order-reduction
technique, a lower-order plant model can be established for the
synthesis of feedback controller. Two major system parameter
uncertainties, an additive uncertainty and a multiplicative uncertainty,
are constituted by the wind turbine and the VIF respectively.
Frequency Shaping Sliding Mode Control (FSSMC) loop is proposed
to account for these uncertainties and suppress the unmodeled
higher-order plant dynamics. At last, the efficacy of the FSSMC is
verified by intensive computer and experimental simulations for
regulation on position deviation of the shaft and counter-balance of
unpredictable wind disturbance.
Abstract: The main focus of the work was concerned with hydrodynamic and thermal analysis of the plate heat exchanger channel with corrugation patterns suggested to be triangular, sinusoidal, and square corrugation. This study was to numerically model and validate the triangular corrugated channel with dimensions/parameters taken from open literature, and then model/analyze both sinusoidal, and square corrugated channel referred to the triangular model. Initially, 2D modeling with local extensive analysis for triangular corrugated channel was carried out. By that, all local pressure drop, wall shear stress, friction factor, static temperature, heat flux, Nusselt number, and surface heat coefficient, were analyzed to interpret the hydrodynamic and thermal phenomena occurred in the flow. Furthermore, in order to facilitate confidence in this model, a comparison between the values predicted, and experimental results taken from literature for almost the same case, was done. Moreover, a holistic numerical study for sinusoidal and square channels together with global comparisons with triangular corrugation under the same condition, were handled. Later, a comparison between electric, and fluid cooling through varying the boundary condition was achieved. The constant wall temperature and constant wall heat flux boundary conditions were employed, and the different resulted Nusselt numbers as a consequence were justified. The results obtained can be used to come up with an optimal design, a 'compromise' between heat transfer and pressure drop.
Abstract: Twist drills are geometrical complex tools and thus various researchers have adopted different mathematical and experimental approaches for their simulation. The present paper acknowledges the increasing use of modern CAD systems and using the API (Application Programming Interface) of a CAD system, drilling simulations are carried out. The developed DRILL3D software routine, creates parametrically controlled tool geometries and using different cutting conditions, achieves the generation of solid models for all the relevant data involved (drilling tool, cut workpiece, undeformed chip). The final data derived, consist a platform for further direct simulations regarding the determination of cutting forces, tool wear, drilling optimizations etc.
Abstract: In designing of condensers, the prediction of pressure
drop is as important as the prediction of heat transfer coefficient.
Modeling of two phase flow, particularly liquid – vapor flow under
diabatic conditions inside a horizontal tube using CFD analysis is
difficult with the available two phase models in FLUENT due to
continuously changing flow patterns. In the present analysis, CFD
analysis of two phase flow of refrigerants inside a horizontal tube of
inner diameter, 0.0085 m and 1.2 m length is carried out using
homogeneous model under adiabatic conditions. The refrigerants
considered are R22, R134a and R407C. The analysis is performed at
different saturation temperatures and at different flow rates to
evaluate the local frictional pressure drop. Using Homogeneous
model, average properties are obtained for each of the refrigerants
that is considered as single phase pseudo fluid. The so obtained
pressure drop data is compared with the separated flow models
available in literature.
Abstract: Software effort estimation is the process of predicting
the most realistic use of effort required to develop or maintain
software based on incomplete, uncertain and/or noisy input. Effort
estimates may be used as input to project plans, iteration plans,
budgets. There are various models like Halstead, Walston-Felix,
Bailey-Basili, Doty and GA Based models which have already used
to estimate the software effort for projects. In this study Statistical
Models, Fuzzy-GA and Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) Inference Systems are
experimented to estimate the software effort for projects. The
performances of the developed models were tested on NASA
software project datasets and results are compared with the Halstead,
Walston-Felix, Bailey-Basili, Doty and Genetic Algorithm Based
models mentioned in the literature. The result shows that the NF
Model has the lowest MMRE and RMSE values. The NF Model
shows the best results as compared with the Fuzzy-GA based hybrid
Inference System and other existing Models that are being used for
the Effort Prediction with lowest MMRE and RMSE values.
Abstract: Multimedia information availability has increased
dramatically with the advent of video broadcasting on handheld
devices. But with this availability comes problems of maintaining the
security of information that is displayed in public. ISMA Encryption
and Authentication (ISMACryp) is one of the chosen technologies for
service protection in DVB-H (Digital Video Broadcasting-
Handheld), the TV system for portable handheld devices. The
ISMACryp is encoded with H.264/AVC (advanced video coding),
while leaving all structural data as it is. Two modes of ISMACryp are
available; the CTR mode (Counter type) and CBC mode (Cipher
Block Chaining) mode. Both modes of ISMACryp are based on 128-
bit AES algorithm. AES algorithms are more complex and require
larger time for execution which is not suitable for real time
application like live TV. The proposed system aims to gain a deep
understanding of video data security on multimedia technologies and
to provide security for real time video applications using selective
encryption for H.264/AVC. Five level of security proposed in this
paper based on the content of NAL unit in Baseline Constrain profile
of H.264/AVC. The selective encryption in different levels provides
encryption of intra-prediction mode, residue data, inter-prediction
mode or motion vectors only. Experimental results shown in this
paper described that fifth level which is ISMACryp provide higher
level of security with more encryption time and the one level provide
lower level of security by encrypting only motion vectors with lower
execution time without compromise on compression and quality of
visual content. This encryption scheme with compression process
with low cost, and keeps the file format unchanged with some direct
operations supported. Simulation was being carried out in Matlab.
Abstract: The healthcare environment is generally perceived as
being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack
of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends
in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from
application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this
study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant
patterns from the Coronary Heart Disease warehouses for heart
attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause
of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose,
we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the
reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique
associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to
validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to
identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large
amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on
the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts- knowledge in
this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the
disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge
relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is
developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The
performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based
on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.
Abstract: In this paper, the implementation of a rule-based
intuitive reasoner is presented. The implementation included two
parts: the rule induction module and the intuitive reasoner. A large
weather database was acquired as the data source. Twelve weather
variables from those data were chosen as the “target variables"
whose values were predicted by the intuitive reasoner. A “complex"
situation was simulated by making only subsets of the data available
to the rule induction module. As a result, the rules induced were
based on incomplete information with variable levels of certainty.
The certainty level was modeled by a metric called "Strength of
Belief", which was assigned to each rule or datum as ancillary
information about the confidence in its accuracy. Two techniques
were employed to induce rules from the data subsets: decision tree
and multi-polynomial regression, respectively for the discrete and the
continuous type of target variables. The intuitive reasoner was tested
for its ability to use the induced rules to predict the classes of the
discrete target variables and the values of the continuous target
variables. The intuitive reasoner implemented two types of
reasoning: fast and broad where, by analogy to human thought, the
former corresponds to fast decision making and the latter to deeper
contemplation. . For reference, a weather data analysis approach
which had been applied on similar tasks was adopted to analyze the
complete database and create predictive models for the same 12
target variables. The values predicted by the intuitive reasoner and
the reference approach were compared with actual data. The intuitive
reasoner reached near-100% accuracy for two continuous target
variables. For the discrete target variables, the intuitive reasoner
predicted at least 70% as accurately as the reference reasoner. Since
the intuitive reasoner operated on rules derived from only about 10%
of the total data, it demonstrated the potential advantages in dealing
with sparse data sets as compared with conventional methods.
Abstract: Modern managements of water distribution system
(WDS) need water quality models that are able to accurately predict
the dynamics of water quality variations within the distribution system
environment. Before water quality models can be applied to solve
system problems, they should be calibrated. Although former
researchers use GA solver to calibrate relative parameters, it is
difficult to apply on the large-scale or medium-scale real system for
long computational time. In this paper a new method is designed
which combines both macro and detailed model to optimize the water
quality parameters. This new combinational algorithm uses radial
basis function (RBF) metamodeling as a surrogate to be optimized for
the purpose of decreasing the times of time-consuming water quality
simulation and can realize rapidly the calibration of pipe wall reaction
coefficients of chlorine model of large-scaled WDS. After two cases
study this method is testified to be more efficient and promising, and
deserve to generalize in the future.
Abstract: In this paper, we present user pattern learning
algorithm based MDSS (Medical Decision support system) under
ubiquitous. Most of researches are focus on hardware system, hospital
management and whole concept of ubiquitous environment even
though it is hard to implement. Our objective of this paper is to design
a MDSS framework. It helps to patient for medical treatment and
prevention of the high risk patient (COPD, heart disease, Diabetes).
This framework consist database, CAD (Computer Aided diagnosis
support system) and CAP (computer aided user vital sign prediction
system). It can be applied to develop user pattern learning algorithm
based MDSS for homecare and silver town service. Especially this
CAD has wise decision making competency. It compares current vital
sign with user-s normal condition pattern data. In addition, the CAP
computes user vital sign prediction using past data of the patient. The
novel approach is using neural network method, wireless vital sign
acquisition devices and personal computer DB system. An intelligent
agent based MDSS will help elder people and high risk patients to
prevent sudden death and disease, the physician to get the online
access to patients- data, the plan of medication service priority (e.g.
emergency case).
Abstract: The main purpose of this study is to provide a detailed
statistical overview of the time and regional distribution, relative
timing occurrence of economic crises and government changes in 51
economies over the 1990–2007 periods. At the same time, the
predictive power of the economic crises on set government changes
will be examined using “signal approach".
The result showed that the percentage of government changes is
highest in transition economies (86 percent of observations) and
lowest in Latin American economies (39 percent of observations).
The percentages of government changes are same in both developed
and developing countries (43 percent of observations). However,
average crises per year (frequency of crises) are higher (lower) in
developing (developed) countries than developed (developing)
countries. Also, the predictive power of economic crises about the
onset of a government change is highest in Transition economies (81
percent) and lowest in Latin American countries (30 percent). The
predictive power of economic crises in developing countries (43
percent) is lower than developed countries (55 percent).
Abstract: We have measured the pressure drop and convective
heat transfer coefficient of water – based AL(25nm),AL2O3(30nm)
and CuO(50nm) Nanofluids flowing through a uniform heated
circular tube in the fully developed laminar flow regime. The
experimental results show that the data for Nanofluids friction factor
show a good agreement with analytical prediction from the Darcy's
equation for single-phase flow. After reducing the experimental
results to the form of Reynolds, Rayleigh and Nusselt numbers. The
results show the local Nusselt number and temperature have
distribution with the non-dimensional axial distance from the tube
entry. Study decided that thenNanofluid as Newtonian fluids through
the design of the linear relationship between shear stress and the rate
of stress has been the study of three chains of the Nanofluid with
different concentrations and where the AL, AL2O3 and CuO – water
ranging from (0.25 - 2.5 vol %). In addition to measuring the four
properties of the Nanofluid in practice so as to ensure the validity of
equations of properties developed by the researchers in this area and
these properties is viscosity, specific heat, and density and found that
the difference does not exceed 3.5% for the experimental equations
between them and the practical. The study also demonstrated that the
amount of the increase in heat transfer coefficient for three types of
Nano fluid is AL, AL2O3, and CuO – Water and these ratios are
respectively (45%, 32%, 25%) with insulation and without insulation
(36%, 23%, 19%), and the statement of any of the cases the best
increase in heat transfer has been proven that using insulation is
better than not using it. I have been using three types of Nano
particles and one metallic Nanoparticle and two oxide Nanoparticle
and a statement, whichever gives the best increase in heat transfer.
Abstract: This paper presents an advance in monitoring and
process control of surface roughness in CNC machine for the turning
and milling processes. An integration of the in-process monitoring
and process control of the surface roughness is proposed and
developed during the machining process by using the cutting force
ratio. The previously developed surface roughness models for turning
and milling processes of the author are adopted to predict the inprocess
surface roughness, which consist of the cutting speed, the
feed rate, the tool nose radius, the depth of cut, the rake angle, and
the cutting force ratio. The cutting force ratios obtained from the
turning and the milling are utilized to estimate the in-process surface
roughness. The dynamometers are installed on the tool turret of CNC
turning machine and the table of 5-axis machining center to monitor
the cutting forces. The in-process control of the surface roughness
has been developed and proposed to control the predicted surface
roughness. It has been proved by the cutting tests that the proposed
integration system of the in-process monitoring and the process
control can be used to check the surface roughness during the cutting
by utilizing the cutting force ratio.
Abstract: In Korea, the technology of a load fo nuclear power plant has been being developed.
automatic controller which is able to control temperature and axial power distribution was developed. identification algorithm and a model predictive contact former transforms the nuclear reactor status into
numerically. And the latter uses them and ge
manipulated values such as two kinds of control ro
this automatic controller, the performance of a coperation was evaluated. As a result, the automatic generated model parameters of a nuclear react to nuclear reactor average temperature and axial power the desired targets during a daily load follow.