Abstract: The aim of this paper is to present a methodology in
three steps to forecast supply chain demand. In first step, various data
mining techniques are applied in order to prepare data for entering
into forecasting models. In second step, the modeling step, an
artificial neural network and support vector machine is presented
after defining Mean Absolute Percentage Error index for measuring
error. The structure of artificial neural network is selected based on
previous researchers' results and in this article the accuracy of
network is increased by using sensitivity analysis. The best forecast
for classical forecasting methods (Moving Average, Exponential
Smoothing, and Exponential Smoothing with Trend) is resulted based
on prepared data and this forecast is compared with result of support
vector machine and proposed artificial neural network. The results
show that artificial neural network can forecast more precisely in
comparison with other methods. Finally, forecasting methods'
stability is analyzed by using raw data and even the effectiveness of
clustering analysis is measured.
Abstract: The turbulent mixing of coolant streams of different
temperature and density can cause severe temperature fluctuations in
piping systems in nuclear reactors. In certain periodic contraction
cycles these conditions lead to thermal fatigue. The resulting aging
effect prompts investigation in how the mixing of flows over a sharp
temperature/density interface evolves. To study the fundamental
turbulent mixing phenomena in the presence of density gradients,
isokinetic (shear-free) mixing experiments are performed in a square
channel with Reynolds numbers ranging from 2-500 to 60-000.
Sucrose is used to create the density difference. A Wire Mesh Sensor
(WMS) is used to determine the concentration map of the flow in the
cross section. The mean interface width as a function of velocity,
density difference and distance from the mixing point are analyzed
based on traditional methods chosen for the purposes of
atmospheric/oceanic stratification analyses. A definition of the
mixing layer thickness more appropriate to thermal fatigue and based
on mixedness is devised. This definition shows that the thermal
fatigue risk assessed using simple mixing layer growth can be
misleading and why an approach that separates the effects of large
scale (turbulent) and small scale (molecular) mixing is necessary.
Abstract: This paper presents the results of the preliminary investigation of microwave (MW) irradiation pretreatments on the anaerobic digestion of food residues using biochemical methane potential (BMP) assays. Low solids systems with a total solids (TS) content ranging from 5.0-10.0% were analyzed. The inoculum to bulk mass of substrates to water ratio was 1:2:2 (mass basis). The experimental conditions for pretreatments were as follows: a control (no MW irradiation), two runs with MW irradiation for 15 and 30 minutes at 320 W, and another two runs with MW irradiation at 528 W for 30 and 60 minutes. The cumulative biogas production were 6.3 L and 8.7 L for 15min/320 W and 30min/320 W MW irradiation conditions, respectively, and 10.5 L and 11.4 L biogas for 30min/528 W and 60min/528 W, respectively, as compared to the control giving 5.8 L biogas. Both an increase in exposure time of irradiation and power of MW had increased the rate and yield of biogas. Singlefactor ANOVA tests (p
Abstract: Due to the increasing and varying risks that economic units face with, derivative instruments gain substantial importance, and trading volumes of derivatives have reached very significant level. Parallel with these high trading volumes, researchers have developed many different models. Some are parametric, some are nonparametric. In this study, the aim is to analyse the success of artificial neural network in pricing of options with S&P 100 index options data. Generally, the previous studies cover the data of European type call options. This study includes not only European call option but also American call and put options and European put options. Three data sets are used to perform three different ANN models. One only includes data that are directly observed from the economic environment, i.e. strike price, spot price, interest rate, maturity, type of the contract. The others include an extra input that is not an observable data but a parameter, i.e. volatility. With these detail data, the performance of ANN in put/call dimension, American/European dimension, moneyness dimension is analyzed and whether the contribution of the volatility in neural network analysis make improvement in prediction performance or not is examined. The most striking results revealed by the study is that ANN shows better performance when pricing call options compared to put options; and the use of volatility parameter as an input does not improve the performance.
Abstract: In the literature of fuzzy measures, there exist many
well known parametric and non-parametric measures, each with its
own merits and limitations. But our main emphasis is on
applications of these measures to a variety of disciplines. To extend
the scope of applications of these fuzzy measures to geometry, we
need some special fuzzy measures. In this communication, we have
introduced two new fuzzy measures involving trigonometric
functions and simultaneously provided their applications to obtain
the basic results already existing in the literature of geometry.
Abstract: Saudi Arabia is an arid country which depends on
costly desalination plants to satisfy the growing residential water
demand. Prediction of water demand is usually a challenging task
because the forecast model should consider variations in economic
progress, climate conditions and population growth. The task is
further complicated knowing that Mecca city is visited regularly by
large numbers during specific months in the year due to religious
occasions. In this paper, a neural networks model is proposed to
handle the prediction of the monthly and yearly water demand for
Mecca city, Saudi Arabia. The proposed model will be developed
based on historic records of water production and estimated visitors-
distribution. The driving variables for the model include annuallyvarying
variables such as household income, household density, and
city population, and monthly-varying variables such as expected
number of visitors each month and maximum monthly temperature.
Abstract: Modeling of a heterogeneous industrial fixed bed
reactor for selective dehydrogenation of heavy paraffin with Pt-Sn-
Al2O3 catalyst has been the subject of current study. By applying
mass balance, momentum balance for appropriate element of reactor
and using pressure drop, rate and deactivation equations, a detailed
model of the reactor has been obtained. Mass balance equations have
been written for five different components. In order to estimate
reactor production by the passage of time, the reactor model which is
a set of partial differential equations, ordinary differential equations
and algebraic equations has been solved numerically.
Paraffins, olefins, dienes, aromatics and hydrogen mole percent as
a function of time and reactor radius have been found by numerical
solution of the model. Results of model have been compared with
industrial reactor data at different operation times. The comparison
successfully confirms validity of proposed model.
Abstract: Introducing survivability into embedded real-time system (ERTS) can improve the survivability power of the system. This paper mainly discusses about the survivability of ERTS. The first is the survivability origin of ERTS. The second is survivability analysis. According to the definition of survivability based on survivability specification and division of the entire survivability analysis process for ERTS, a survivability analysis profile is presented. The quantitative analysis model of this profile is emphasized and illuminated in detail, the quantifying analysis of system was showed helpful to evaluate system survivability more accurate. The third is platform design of survivability analysis. In terms of the profile, the analysis process is encapsulated and assembled into one platform, on which quantification, standardization and simplification of survivability analysis are all achieved. The fourth is survivability design. According to character of ERTS, strengthened design method is selected to realize system survivability design. Through the analysis of embedded mobile video-on-demand system, intrusion tolerant technology is introduced in whole survivability design.
Abstract: The paper reviews the relationship between spatial
and transportation planning in the Southern African Development
Community (SADC) region of Sub-Saharan Africa. It argues that
most urbanisation in the region has largely occurred subsequent to
the 1950s and, accordingly, urban development has been
profoundly and negatively affected by the (misguided) spatial and
institutional tenets of modernism. It demonstrates how a
considerable amount of the poor performance of these settlements
can be directly attributed to this. Two factors in particular about the
planning systems are emphasized: the way in which programmatic
land-use planning lies at the heart of both spatial and transportation
planning; and the way on which transportation and spatial planning
have been separated into independent processes. In the final
section, the paper identifies ways of improving the planning
system. Firstly, it identifies the performance qualities which
Southern African settlements should be seeking to achieve.
Secondly, it focuses on two necessary arenas of change: the need to
replace programmatic land-use planning practices with structuralspatial
approaches; and it makes a case for making urban corridors
a spatial focus of integrated planning, as a way of beginning the
restructuring and intensification of settlements which are currently
characterised by sprawl, fragmentation and separation
Abstract: Numerical simulations are performed for laminar
continuous and pulsed jets impinging on a surface in order to
investigate the effects of pulsing frequency on the heat transfer
characteristics. The time-averaged Nusselt number of pulsed jets is
larger in the impinging jet region as compared to the continuous jet,
while it is smaller in the outer wall jet region. At the stagnation point,
the mean and RMS Nusselt numbers become larger and smaller,
respectively, as the pulsing frequency increases. Unsteady behaviors
of vortical fluid motions and temperature field are also investigated to
understand the underlying mechanisms of heat transfer enhancement.
Abstract: One of the criteria in production scheduling is Make
Span, minimizing this criteria causes more efficiently use of the
resources specially machinery and manpower. By assigning some
budget to some of the operations the operation time of these activities
reduces and affects the total completion time of all the operations
(Make Span). In this paper this issue is practiced in parallel flow
shops. At first we convert parallel flow shop to a network model and
by using a linear programming approach it is identified in order to
minimize make span (the completion time of the network) which
activities (operations) are better to absorb the predetermined and
limited budget. Minimizing the total completion time of all the
activities in the network is equivalent to minimizing make span in
production scheduling.
Abstract: This paper presents modeling and simulation of Grid Connected Photovoltaic (PV) system by using improved mathematical model. The model is used to study different parameter variations and effects on the PV array including operating temperature and solar irradiation level. In this paper stepped P&O algorithm is proposed for MPPT control. This algorithm will identify the suitable duty ratio in which the DC-DC converter should be operated to maximize the power output. Photo voltaic array with proposed stepped P&O-MPPT controller can operate in the maximum power point for the whole range of solar data (irradiance and temperature).
Abstract: Today with the rapid growth of telecommunications equipment, electronic and developing more and more networks of power, influence of electromagnetic waves on one another has become hot topic discussions. So in this article, this issue and appropriate mechanisms for EMC operations have been presented. First, impact of high voltage lines on the surrounding environment especially on the control room has been investigated, then to reduce electromagnetic radiation, various methods of shielding are provided and shielding effectiveness of them has been compared. It should be expressed that simulations have been done by the finite element method (FEM).
Abstract: NFκB activation plays a crucial role in anti-apoptotic responses in response to the apoptotic signaling during tumor necrosis factor (TNFa) stimulation in Multiple Myeloma (MM). Although several drugs have been found effective for the treatment of MM by mainly inhibiting NFκB pathway, there are no any quantitative or qualitative results of comparison assessment on inhibition effect between different single drugs or drug combinations. Computational modeling is becoming increasingly indispensable for applied biological research mainly because it can provide strong quantitative predicting power. In this study, a novel computational pathway modeling approach is employed to comparably assess the inhibition effects of specific single drugs and drug combinations on the NFκB pathway in MM, especially the prediction of synergistic drug combinations.
Abstract: Seismic qualification testing for equipments to be
mounted on upper storeys of buildings is very demanding in terms of
floor spectra. The latter is characterized by high accelerations
amplitudes within a narrow frequency band. This article presents a
method which permits to cover specified required response spectra
beyond the shaking table capability by amplifying the acceleration
amplitudes at an appropriate frequency range using a physical
intermediate mounted on the platform of the shaker.
Abstract: Information is increasing in volumes; companies are overloaded with information that they may lose track in getting the intended information. It is a time consuming task to scan through each of the lengthy document. A shorter version of the document which contains only the gist information is more favourable for most information seekers. Therefore, in this paper, we implement a text summarization system to produce a summary that contains gist information of oil and gas news articles. The summarization is intended to provide important information for oil and gas companies to monitor their competitor-s behaviour in enhancing them in formulating business strategies. The system integrated statistical approach with three underlying concepts: keyword occurrences, title of the news article and location of the sentence. The generated summaries were compared with human generated summaries from an oil and gas company. Precision and recall ratio are used to evaluate the accuracy of the generated summary. Based on the experimental results, the system is able to produce an effective summary with the average recall value of 83% at the compression rate of 25%.
Abstract: Weather disaster events were frequent and caused loss
of lives and property in Taiwan recently. Excessive concentration of
population and lacking of integrated planning led to Taiwanese coastal
zone face the impacts of climate change directly. Comparing to many
countries which have already set up legislation, competent authorities
and national adaptation strategies, the ability of coastal management
adapting to climate change is still insufficient in Taiwan. Therefore, it
is necessary to establish a complete institutional arrangement for
coastal management due to climate change in order to protect
environment and sustain socio-economic development. This paper
firstly reviews the impact of climate change on Taiwanese coastal
zone. Secondly, development of Taiwanese institutional arrangement
of coastal management is introduced. Followed is the analysis of four
dimensions of legal basis, competent authority, scientific and financial
support and international cooperations of institutional arrangement.
The results show that Taiwanese government shall: 1) integrate climate
change issue into Coastal Act, Wetland Act and territorial planning
Act and pass them; 2) establish the high level competent authority for
coastal management; 3) set up the climate change disaster coordinate
platform; 4) link scientific information and decision markers; 5)
establish the climate change adjustment fund; 6) participate in
international climate change organizations and meetings actively; 7)
cooperate with near countries to exchange experiences.
Abstract: The AL-MAJIRI school system is a variant of private
Arabic and Islamic schools which cater for the religious and moral development of Muslims. In the past, the system produced clerics,
scholars, judges, religious reformers, eminent teachers and great men who are worthy of emulation, particularly in northern Nigeria.
Gradually, the system lost its glory but continued to discharge its
educational responsibilities to a certain extent. This paper takes a
look at the activities of the AL-MAJIRI schools. The introduction
provides background information about Nigeria where the schools
operate. This is followed by an overview of the Nigerian educational system, the nature and the features of the AL-MAJIRI school system,
its weaknesses and the current challenges facing the schools. The paper concludes with emphasis on the urgent need for a comprehensive reform of the curriculum content of the schools. The step by step procedure required for the reform is discussed.
Abstract: Wireless sensor networks (WSN) are currently
receiving significant attention due to their unlimited potential. These
networks are used for various applications, such as habitat
monitoring, automation, agriculture, and security. The efficient nodeenergy
utilization is one of important performance factors in wireless
sensor networks because sensor nodes operate with limited battery
power. In this paper, we proposed the MiSense hierarchical cluster
based routing algorithm (MiCRA) to extend the lifetime of sensor
networks and to maintain a balanced energy consumption of nodes.
MiCRA is an extension of the HEED algorithm with two levels of
cluster heads. The performance of the proposed protocol has been
examined and evaluated through a simulation study. The simulation
results clearly show that MiCRA has a better performance in terms of
lifetime than HEED. Indeed, MiCRA our proposed protocol can
effectively extend the network lifetime without other critical
overheads and performance degradation. It has been noted that there
is about 35% of energy saving for MiCRA during the clustering
process and 65% energy savings during the routing process compared
to the HEED algorithm.
Abstract: Synthesis gas manufacturing by steam reforming of hydrocarbons is an important industrial process. High endothermic nature of the process makes it one of the most cost and heat intensive processes. In the present work, composite effect of different inert gases on synthesis gas yield, feed gas conversion and temperature distribution along the reactor length has been studied using a heterogeneous model. Mathematical model was developed as a first stage and validated against the existing process models. With the addition of inert gases, a higher yield of synthesis gas is observed. Simultaneously the rector outlet temperature drops to as low as 810 K. It was found that Xenon gives the highest yield and conversion while Helium gives the lowest temperature. Using Xenon inert gas 20 percent reduction in outlet temperature was observed compared to traditional case.