Abstract: The quality of short term load forecasting can improve the efficiency of planning and operation of electric utilities. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are employed for nonlinear short term load forecasting owing to their powerful nonlinear mapping capabilities. At present, there is no systematic methodology for optimal design and training of an artificial neural network. One has often to resort to the trial and error approach. This paper describes the process of developing three layer feed-forward large neural networks for short-term load forecasting and then presents a heuristic search algorithm for performing an important task of this process, i.e. optimal networks structure design. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to develop the optimum large neural network structure and connecting weights for one-day ahead electric load forecasting problem. PSO is a novel random optimization method based on swarm intelligence, which has more powerful ability of global optimization. Employing PSO algorithms on the design and training of ANNs allows the ANN architecture and parameters to be easily optimized. The proposed method is applied to STLF of the local utility. Data are clustered due to the differences in their characteristics. Special days are extracted from the normal training sets and handled separately. In this way, a solution is provided for all load types, including working days and weekends and special days. The experimental results show that the proposed method optimized by PSO can quicken the learning speed of the network and improve the forecasting precision compared with the conventional Back Propagation (BP) method. Moreover, it is not only simple to calculate, but also practical and effective. Also, it provides a greater degree of accuracy in many cases and gives lower percent errors all the time for STLF problem compared to BP method. Thus, it can be applied to automatically design an optimal load forecaster based on historical data.
Abstract: Conventional WBL is effective for meaningful student, because rote student learn by repeating without thinking or trying to understand. It is impossible to have full benefit from conventional WBL. Understanding of rote student-s intention and what influences it becomes important. Poorly designed user interface will discourage rote student-s cultivation and intention to use WBL. Thus, user interface design is an important factor especially when WBL is used as comprehensive replacement of conventional teaching. This research proposes the influencing factors that can enhance student-s intention to use the system. The enhanced TAM is used for evaluating the proposed factors. The research result points out that factors influencing rote student-s intention are Perceived Usefulness of Homepage Content Structure, Perceived User Friendly Interface, Perceived Hedonic Component, and Perceived (homepage) Visual Attractiveness.
Abstract: Contact centres have been exemplars of scientific management in the discipline of operations management for more than a decade now. With the movement of industries from a resource based economy to knowledge based economy businesses have started to realize the customer eccentricity being the key to sustainability amidst high velocity of the market. However, as technologies have converged and advanced, so have the contact centres. Contact Centres have redirected the supply chains and the concept of retailing is highly diminished due to over exaggeration of cost reduction strategies. In conditions of high environmental velocity together with services featuring considerable information intensity contact centres will require up to date and enlightened agents to satisfy the demands placed upon them by those requesting their services. In this paper we examine salient factors such as Power Distance, Knowledge structures and the dynamics of job specialisation and enlargement to suggest critical success factors in the domain of contact centres.
Abstract: Directive 2009/28/CE establishes, as obligatory objective, a share of renewable energies on energetic consumption of 20%, in European Union, in 2020 However, such European normative gives freedom to member states in the selection of the renewable promotion mechanism that allows them to obtain that objective. In this paper, we analyze the main characteristics of the promotion mechanisms of renewable energy used in the countries that shape the Electricity Iberian Market (Spain and Portugal) and the results in employment. The importance of these countries is given by the great increasing of the renewable energies which suppose a share higher than 30% of the overall generation in 2010. Therefore, this research paper can serve as the basis for the learning of other countries with regard to the main advantages that entail the use of a feed-in tariff system.
Abstract: Modeling of complex dynamic systems, which are
very complicated to establish mathematical models, requires new and
modern methodologies that will exploit the existing expert
knowledge, human experience and historical data. Fuzzy cognitive
maps are very suitable, simple, and powerful tools for simulation and
analysis of these kinds of dynamic systems. However, human experts
are subjective and can handle only relatively simple fuzzy cognitive
maps; therefore, there is a need of developing new approaches for an
automated generation of fuzzy cognitive maps using historical data.
In this study, a new learning algorithm, which is called Big Bang-Big
Crunch, is proposed for the first time in literature for an automated
generation of fuzzy cognitive maps from data. Two real-world
examples; namely a process control system and radiation therapy
process, and one synthetic model are used to emphasize the
effectiveness and usefulness of the proposed methodology.
Abstract: We have proposed an information filtering system
using index word selection from a document set based on the
topics included in a set of documents. This method narrows
down the particularly characteristic words in a document set
and the topics are obtained by Sparse Non-negative Matrix
Factorization. In information filtering, a document is often
represented with the vector in which the elements correspond
to the weight of the index words, and the dimension of the
vector becomes larger as the number of documents is
increased. Therefore, it is possible that useless words as index
words for the information filtering are included. In order to
address the problem, the dimension needs to be reduced. Our
proposal reduces the dimension by selecting index words
based on the topics included in a document set. We have
applied the Sparse Non-negative Matrix Factorization to the
document set to obtain these topics. The filtering is carried out
based on a centroid of the learning document set. The centroid
is regarded as the user-s interest. In addition, the centroid is
represented with a document vector whose elements consist of
the weight of the selected index words. Using the English test
collection MEDLINE, thus, we confirm the effectiveness of
our proposal. Hence, our proposed selection can confirm the
improvement of the recommendation accuracy from the other
previous methods when selecting the appropriate number of
index words. In addition, we discussed the selected index
words by our proposal and we found our proposal was able to
select the index words covered some minor topics included in
the document set.
Abstract: The study investigated the educational implications
that can be derived from the work of a variety of celebrated figures
such as Piaget, Vygotsky, and Bruner that will be helpful in the field
of language learning. However, the writer believed these views were
previously expressed not full–fledged by Comenius who has been
described by Howatt (1984) as a genius–the one that the history of
language teaching can claim. And we owe to him more than anyone.
Abstract: Mobile agents are a powerful approach to develop distributed systems since they migrate to hosts on which they have the resources to execute individual tasks. In a dynamic environment like a peer-to-peer network, Agents have to be generated frequently and dispatched to the network. Thus they will certainly consume a certain amount of bandwidth of each link in the network if there are too many agents migration through one or several links at the same time, they will introduce too much transferring overhead to the links eventually, these links will be busy and indirectly block the network traffic, therefore, there is a need of developing routing algorithms that consider about traffic load. In this paper we seek to create cooperation between a probabilistic manner according to the quality measure of the network traffic situation and the agent's migration decision making to the next hop based on decision tree learning algorithms.
Abstract: Does a communication modality matter in delivering e-learning information? With the recent growth of broadcasting systems, media technologies and e-learning contents, various systems with different communication modalities have been introduced. In accordance with these trends, this study examines the effects of the information delivery modality on psychology of students. Findings from an experiment indicated that the delivering information which includes a video modality elicited higher degrees of credibility, quality, representativeness of content, and perceived suitability for delivering information than those of auditory information. However, there is no difference between content liking and attitude. The Implications of the findings and the limitations are discussed.
Abstract: An important structuring mechanism for knowledge bases is building clusters based on the content of their knowledge objects. The objects are clustered based on the principle of maximizing the intraclass similarity and minimizing the interclass similarity. Clustering can also facilitate taxonomy formation, that is, the organization of observations into a hierarchy of classes that group similar events together. Hierarchical representation allows us to easily manage the complexity of knowledge, to view the knowledge at different levels of details, and to focus our attention on the interesting aspects only. One of such efficient and easy to understand systems is Hierarchical Production rule (HPRs) system. A HPR, a standard production rule augmented with generality and specificity information, is of the following form Decision If < condition> Generality Specificity . HPRs systems are capable of handling taxonomical structures inherent in the knowledge about the real world. In this paper, a set of related HPRs is called a cluster and is represented by a HPR-tree. This paper discusses an algorithm based on cumulative learning scenario for dynamic structuring of clusters. The proposed scheme incrementally incorporates new knowledge into the set of clusters from the previous episodes and also maintains summary of clusters as Synopsis to be used in the future episodes. Examples are given to demonstrate the behaviour of the proposed scheme. The suggested incremental structuring of clusters would be useful in mining data streams.
Abstract: A learning content management system (LCMS) is an
environment to support web-based learning content development.
Primary function of the system is to manage the learning process as
well as to generate content customized to meet a unique requirement
of each learner. Among the available supporting tools offered by
several vendors, we propose to enhance the LCMS functionality to
individualize the presented content with the induction ability. Our
induction technique is based on rough set theory. The induced rules
are intended to be the supportive knowledge for guiding the content
flow planning. They can also be used as decision rules to help
content developers on managing content delivered to individual
learner.
Abstract: Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) has been integrated in education in many developing and developed countries alike, but the use of ICT in Tanzanian schools is dismal. Many Tanzanian secondary schools have no computers. The few schools with computers use them primarily for secretarial services and computer literacy training. The Tanzanian education system at other levels like secondary school level has to undergo substantial transformation, underscored by the growing application of new information and communication technology. This paper presents the e-readiness survey result from secondary schools in Tanzania. The paper also suggests how Tanzania can make use of the few present ICT resources to support and improve teaching and learning functions to improve performance and acquisition of knowledge by using e-Learning Management System (e-LMS).
Abstract: The study entitled “The Construction of Interactive
Computer Multimedia Instruction on Basic Japanese Vocabulary"
was aimed: 1) To construct the interactive computer multimedia
instruction on Basic Japanese Vocabulary, 2) To find out
multimedia-s quality, 3) To examine the student-s satisfaction and 4)
To study the learning achievement in Basic Japanese vocabulary. The
sampling group used in this study was composed of 40 1st year
student in Educational Communications and Technology Department,
Faculty of Industrial Education and Technology, King Mongkut-s
University of Technology Thonburi, in the academic year 2553 B.E.
(2010). According to research results, we found that 1). The quality
assessment by 3 mass media experts was at 4.72 on average or at high
level. 2) In terms of contents, the evaluation by 3 experts was at 4.81
on average or at high level. 3) In terms of achievement, there was a
statistical significance between before and after the treatment at the
.05 level. 4) The satisfaction of students towards the interactive
computer multimedia Instruction on “Basic Japanese Vocabulary"
was 4.35 on average, or at high level.
Abstract: Combined therapy using Interferon and Ribavirin is the standard treatment in patients with chronic hepatitis C. However, the number of responders to this treatment is low, whereas its cost and side effects are high. Therefore, there is a clear need to predict patient’s response to the treatment based on clinical information to protect the patients from the bad drawbacks, Intolerable side effects and waste of money. Different machine learning techniques have been developed to fulfill this purpose. From these techniques are Associative Classification (AC) and Decision Tree (DT). The aim of this research is to compare the performance of these two techniques in the prediction of virological response to the standard treatment of HCV from clinical information. 200 patients treated with Interferon and Ribavirin; were analyzed using AC and DT. 150 cases had been used to train the classifiers and 50 cases had been used to test the classifiers. The experiment results showed that the two techniques had given acceptable results however the best accuracy for the AC reached 92% whereas for DT reached 80%.
Abstract: Estimates of temperature values at a specific time of day, from daytime and daily profiles, are needed for a number of environmental, ecological, agricultural and technical applications, ranging from natural hazards assessments, crop growth forecasting to design of solar energy systems. The scope of this research is to investigate the efficiency of data mining techniques in estimating minimum, maximum and mean temperature values. For this reason, a number of experiments have been conducted with well-known regression algorithms using temperature data from the city of Patras in Greece. The performance of these algorithms has been evaluated using standard statistical indicators, such as Correlation Coefficient, Root Mean Squared Error, etc.
Abstract: The concerns of education and practice of architecture
do not necessarily overlap. Indeed the gap between them could be
seen increasingly and less frequently bridged. We suggest that
changing in architecture education and clarifying the relationship
between these two can help to find and address the opportunities and
unique positions to bridge this gulf.
Abstract: The information on the Web increases tremendously.
A number of search engines have been developed for searching Web
information and retrieving relevant documents that satisfy the
inquirers needs. Search engines provide inquirers irrelevant
documents among search results, since the search is text-based rather
than semantic-based. Information retrieval research area has
presented a number of approaches and methodologies such as
profiling, feedback, query modification, human-computer interaction,
etc for improving search results. Moreover, information retrieval has
employed artificial intelligence techniques and strategies such as
machine learning heuristics, tuning mechanisms, user and system
vocabularies, logical theory, etc for capturing user's preferences and
using them for guiding the search based on the semantic analysis
rather than syntactic analysis. Although a valuable improvement has
been recorded on search results, the survey has shown that still
search engines users are not really satisfied with their search results.
Using ontologies for semantic-based searching is likely the key
solution. Adopting profiling approach and using ontology base
characteristics, this work proposes a strategy for finding the exact
meaning of the query terms in order to retrieve relevant information
according to user needs. The evaluation of conducted experiments
has shown the effectiveness of the suggested methodology and
conclusion is presented.
Abstract: The back-propagation algorithm calculates the weight
changes of an artificial neural network, and a two-term algorithm
with a dynamically optimal learning rate and a momentum factor
is commonly used. Recently the addition of an extra term, called a
proportional factor (PF), to the two-term BP algorithm was proposed.
The third term increases the speed of the BP algorithm. However,
the PF term also reduces the convergence of the BP algorithm, and
optimization approaches for evaluating the learning parameters are
required to facilitate the application of the three terms BP algorithm.
This paper considers the optimization of the new back-propagation
algorithm by using derivative information. A family of approaches
exploiting the derivatives with respect to the learning rate, momentum
factor and proportional factor is presented. These autonomously
compute the derivatives in the weight space, by using information
gathered from the forward and backward procedures. The three-term
BP algorithm and the optimization approaches are evaluated using
the benchmark XOR problem.
Abstract: Currently, most of distance learning courses can only
deliver standard material to students. Students receive course content
passively which leads to the neglect of the goal of education – “to suit
the teaching to the ability of students". Providing appropriate course
content according to students- ability is the main goal of this paper.
Except offering a series of conventional learning services, abundant
information available, and instant message delivery, a complete online
learning environment should be able to distinguish between students-
ability and provide learning courses that best suit their ability.
However, if a distance learning site contains well-designed course
content and design but fails to provide adaptive courses, students will
gradually loss their interests and confidence in learning and result in
ineffective learning or discontinued learning. In this paper, an
intelligent tutoring system is proposed and it consists of several
modules working cooperatively in order to build an adaptive learning
environment for distance education. The operation of the system is
based on the result of Self-Organizing Map (SOM) to divide students
into different groups according to their learning ability and learning
interests and then provide them with suitable course content.
Accordingly, the problem of information overload and internet traffic
problem can be solved because the amount of traffic accessing the
same content is reduced.
Abstract: In this paper we are interested in classification problems
with a performance constraint on error probability. In such
problems if the constraint cannot be satisfied, then a rejection option
is introduced. For binary labelled classification, a number of SVM
based methods with rejection option have been proposed over the
past few years. All of these methods use two thresholds on the SVM
output. However, in previous works, we have shown on synthetic data
that using thresholds on the output of the optimal SVM may lead to
poor results for classification tasks with performance constraint. In
this paper a new method for supervised classification with rejection
option is proposed. It consists in two different classifiers jointly
optimized to minimize the rejection probability subject to a given
constraint on error rate. This method uses a new kernel based linear
learning machine that we have recently presented. This learning
machine is characterized by its simplicity and high training speed
which makes the simultaneous optimization of the two classifiers
computationally reasonable. The proposed classification method with
rejection option is compared to a SVM based rejection method
proposed in recent literature. Experiments show the superiority of
the proposed method.