Impact of Changes in Excise Tax Rate for Strong Alcohol on Consumption and State Revenues in Latvia

State tax revenues in most countries started to decrease during the recession. Government of Latvia decided to compensate the decline by increasing rates of several taxes including excise tax on strong alcohol. The total increase in 2009 constituted 42% and the rate increased from 896€ to 1 266€ for 100l of absolute alcohol. Since then this has had a negative impact on consumption volumes and the split between legal and illegal market. The legal alcohol sales decreased by almost 50% (by volume), consequentially having negative effect on the State revenues from VAT and excise tax. Estimated results for 2010 are indicating 54 million € decrease in VAT, excise tax and other taxes versus 2008 (excise tax -19 million €, VAT -30 million €, other taxes -5 million €). The paper aims to analyze impact of the increase in excise tax on consumption patterns, State revenues and competitiveness of the local companies to draw up proposals for the state authorities regarding more effective tax policies. The analysis reveals a relationship between excise tax rate, illegal alcohol market and State revenues. The results can be used to improve excise tax system and effectiveness in Latvia.

Evaluating Spectral Relationships between Signals by Removing the Contribution of a Common, Periodic Source A Partial Coherence-based Approach

Partial coherence between two signals removing the contribution of a periodic, deterministic signal is proposed for evaluating the interrelationship in multivariate systems. The estimator expression was derived and shown to be independent of such periodic signal. Simulations were used for obtaining its critical value, which were found to be the same as those for Gaussian signals, as well as for evaluating the technique. An Illustration with eletroencephalografic (EEG) signals during photic stimulation is also provided. The application of the proposed technique in both simulation and real EEG data indicate that it seems to be very specific in removing the contribution of periodic sources. The estimate independence of the periodic signal may widen partial coherence application to signal analysis, since it could be used together with simple coherence to test for contamination in signals by a common, periodic noise source.

Medical Image Registration by Minimizing Divergence Measure Based on Tsallis Entropy

As the use of registration packages spreads, the number of the aligned image pairs in image databases (either by manual or automatic methods) increases dramatically. These image pairs can serve as a set of training data. Correspondingly, the images that are to be registered serve as testing data. In this paper, a novel medical image registration method is proposed which is based on the a priori knowledge of the expected joint intensity distribution estimated from pre-aligned training images. The goal of the registration is to find the optimal transformation such that the distance between the observed joint intensity distribution obtained from the testing image pair and the expected joint intensity distribution obtained from the corresponding training image pair is minimized. The distance is measured using the divergence measure based on Tsallis entropy. Experimental results show that, compared with the widely-used Shannon mutual information as well as Tsallis mutual information, the proposed method is computationally more efficient without sacrificing registration accuracy.

Assessment of Thermal Comfort at Manual Car Body Assembly Workstation

The objective of this study is to determine the thermal comfort among worker at Malaysian automotive industry. One critical manual assembly workstation had been chosen as a subject for the study. The human subjects for the study constitute operators at Body Assembly Station of the factory. The environment examined was the Relative Humidity (%), Airflow (m/s), Air Temperature (°C) and Radiant Temperature (°C) of the surrounding workstation area. The environmental factors were measured using Babuc apparatus, which is capable to measure simultaneously those mentioned environmental factors. The time series data of fluctuating level of factors were plotted to identify the significant changes of factors. Then thermal comfort of the workers were assessed by using ISO Standard 7730 Thermal sensation scale by using Predicted Mean Vote (PMV). Further Predicted percentage dissatisfied (PPD) is used to estimate the thermal comfort satisfaction of the occupant. Finally the PPD versus PMV were plotted to present the thermal comfort scenario of workers involved in related workstation. The result of PMV at the related industry is between 1.8 and 2.3, where PPD at that building is between 60% to 84%. The survey result indicated that the temperature more influenced comfort to the occupants

Effect of Co3O4 Nanoparticles Addition on (Bi,Pb)-2223 Superconductor

The effect of nano Co3O4 addition on the superconducting properties of (Bi, Pb)-2223 system was studied. The samples were prepared by the acetate coprecipitation method. The Co3O4 with different sizes (10-30 nm and 30-50 nm) from x=0.00 to 0.05 was added to Bi1.6Pb0.4Sr2Ca2Cu3Oy(Co3O4)x. Phase analysis by XRD method, microstructural examination by SEM and dc electrical resistivity by four point probe method were done to characterize the samples. The X-ray diffraction patterns of all the samples indicated the majority Bi-2223 phase along with minor Bi-2212 and Bi-2201 phases. The volume fraction was estimated from the intensities of Bi- 2223, Bi-2212 and Bi-2201 phase. The sample with x=0.01 wt% of the added Co3O4 (10-30 nm size) showed the highest volume fraction of Bi-2223 phase (72%) and the highest superconducting transition temperature, Tc (~102 K). The non-added sample showed the highest Tc(~103 K) compared to added samples with nano Co3O4 (30-50 nm size) added samples. Both the onset critical temperature Tc(onset) and zero electrical resistivity temperature Tc(R=0) were in the range of 103-115 ±1K and 91-103 ±1K respectively for samples with added Co3O4 (10-30 nm and 30-50 nm).

Maximizer of the Posterior Marginal Estimate for Noise Reduction of JPEG-compressed Image

We constructed a method of noise reduction for JPEG-compressed image based on Bayesian inference using the maximizer of the posterior marginal (MPM) estimate. In this method, we tried the MPM estimate using two kinds of likelihood, both of which enhance grayscale images converted into the JPEG-compressed image through the lossy JPEG image compression. One is the deterministic model of the likelihood and the other is the probabilistic one expressed by the Gaussian distribution. Then, using the Monte Carlo simulation for grayscale images, such as the 256-grayscale standard image “Lena" with 256 × 256 pixels, we examined the performance of the MPM estimate based on the performance measure using the mean square error. We clarified that the MPM estimate via the Gaussian probabilistic model of the likelihood is effective for reducing noises, such as the blocking artifacts and the mosquito noise, if we set parameters appropriately. On the other hand, we found that the MPM estimate via the deterministic model of the likelihood is not effective for noise reduction due to the low acceptance ratio of the Metropolis algorithm.

Determination of Severe Loading Condition at Critical System Cascading Collapse Considering the Effect of Protection System Hidden Failure

Hidden failure in a protection system has been recognized as one of the main reasons which may cause to a power system instability leading to a system cascading collapse. This paper presents a computationally systematic approach used to obtain the estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse by considering the effect of probability hidden failure in a protection system. The estimated average probability of a system cascading collapse is then used to determine the severe loading condition contributing to the higher risk of critical system cascading collapse. This information is essential to the system utility since it will assist the operator to determine the highest point of increased system loading condition prior to the event of critical system cascading collapse.

Experimental Validation of Treatment Planning for Multiple Radiotherapy Fields by EDR2 Film Dosimeter

To investigate the applicability of the EDR-2 film for clinical radiation dosimetry, percentage depth-doses, profiles and distributions in open and dynamically wedged fields were measured using film and compared with data from a Treatment Planning system.The validity of the EDR2 film to measure dose in a plane parallel to the beam was tested by irradiating 10 cm×10 cm and 4 cm×4 cm fields from a Siemens, primus linac with a 6MV beam and a source-to-surface distance of 100 cm. The film was placed Horizontally between solid water phantom blocks and marked with pin holes at a depth of 10 cm from the incident beam surface. The film measurement results, in absolute dose, were compared with ion chamber measurements using a Welhoffer scanning water tank system and Treatment Planning system. Our results indicate a maximum underestimate of calculated dose of 8 % with Treatment Planning system.

Corrosion Fatigue Crack Growth Studies in Ni-Cr-Mn Steel

This paper presents the results of corrosion fatigue crack growth behaviour of a Ni-Cr-Mn steel commonly used in marine applications. The effect of mechanical variables such as frequency and load ratio on fatigue crack growth rate at various stages has been studied using compact tension (C(T)) specimens along the rolling direction of steel plate under 3.5% saturated NaCl aqueous environment. The significance of crack closure on corrosion fatigue, and the validity of Elber-s empirical linear crack closure model with the ASTM compliance offset method have been examined. Fatigue crack growth rate is higher and threshold stress intensities are lower in aqueous environment compared to the lab air conditions. It is also observed that the crack growth rate increases at lower frequencies. The higher stress ratio promotes the crack growth. The effect of oxidization and corrosion pit formation is very less as the stress ratio is increased. It is observed that as stress ratios are increased, the Elber-s crack closure model agrees well with the crack closure estimated by the ASTM compliance offset method for tests conducted at 5Hz frequency compared to tests conducted at 1Hz in corrosive environment.

Hexavalent Chromium Pollution Abatement by use of Scrap Iron

In this study, the reduction of Cr(VI) by use of scrap iron, a cheap and locally available industrial waste, was investigated in continuous system. The greater scrap iron efficiency observed for the first two sections of the column filling indicate that most of the reduction process was carried out in the bottom half of the column filling. This was ascribed to a constant decrease of Cr(VI) concentration inside the filling, as the water front passes from the bottom to the top end of the column. While the bottom section of the column filling was heavily passivated with secondary mineral phases, the top section was less affected by the passivation process; therefore the column filling would likely ensure the reduction of Cr(VI) for time periods longer than 216 hours. The experimental results indicate that fixed beds columns packed with scrap iron could be successfully used for the first step of Cr(VI) polluted wastewater treatment. However, the mass of scrap iron filling should be carefully estimated since it significantly affects the Cr(VI) reduction efficiency.

Quantitative Estimation of Periodicities in Lyari River Flow Routing

The hydrologic time series data display periodic structure and periodic autoregressive process receives considerable attention in modeling of such series. In this communication long term record of monthly waste flow of Lyari river is utilized to quantify by using PAR modeling technique. The parameters of model are estimated by using Frances & Paap methodology. This study shows that periodic autoregressive model of order 2 is the most parsimonious model for assessing periodicity in waste flow of the river. A careful statistical analysis of residuals of PAR (2) model is used for establishing goodness of fit. The forecast by using proposed model confirms significance and effectiveness of the model.

A Comparative Study into Observer based Fault Detection and Diagnosis in DC Motors: Part-I

A model based fault detection and diagnosis technique for DC motor is proposed in this paper. Fault detection using Kalman filter and its different variants are compared. Only incipient faults are considered for the study. The Kalman Filter iterations and all the related computations required for fault detection and fault confirmation are presented. A second order linear state space model of DC motor is used for this work. A comparative assessment of the estimates computed from four different observers and their relative performance is evaluated.

Density Estimation using Generalized Linear Model and a Linear Combination of Gaussians

In this paper we present a novel approach for density estimation. The proposed approach is based on using the logistic regression model to get initial density estimation for the given empirical density. The empirical data does not exactly follow the logistic regression model, so, there will be a deviation between the empirical density and the density estimated using logistic regression model. This deviation may be positive and/or negative. In this paper we use a linear combination of Gaussian (LCG) with positive and negative components as a model for this deviation. Also, we will use the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of LCG. Experiments on real images demonstrate the accuracy of our approach.

Insecticidal Effects of Two Plant Aqueous Extracts against Second Instar Larvae of Lycoriella Auripila (Diptera: Sciaridae)

The toxicity of aqueous extracts of two plants, Nicotiana tobacum and Eucalyptus globulus were investigated against second instar larvae of Lycoriella auripila, one of the most important pests of button mushroom, using agar dilution technique. Seven concentrations of aqueous extracts of both plants were applied on second instar larvae and their mortality were evaluated after 24, 48 and 72 h. The obtained results revealed that aqueous extracts of N. tabacum and E. globulus caused 77.55 and 72.5% mortality of larvae of L. auripila at concentration of 4000 ppm after 72h, respectively. Toxicities of tobacco extract after 24, 48 and 72 h were 1.52, 1.85 and 1.70 times greather than eucalyptus, respectively. The estimated LC50 after 24, 48 and 72 h were 7316.5, 2468.5 and 2013.1 ppm for tobacco and 64870.0, 6839.5 and 3326.4 ppm for eucalyptus, respectively. These plants merit further study as potential insecticides for the control of L. auripila.

Detection of Actuator Faults for an Attitude Control System using Neural Network

The objective of this paper is to develop a neural network-based residual generator to detect the fault in the actuators for a specific communication satellite in its attitude control system (ACS). First, a dynamic multilayer perceptron network with dynamic neurons is used, those neurons correspond a second order linear Infinite Impulse Response (IIR) filter and a nonlinear activation function with adjustable parameters. Second, the parameters from the network are adjusted to minimize a performance index specified by the output estimated error, with the given input-output data collected from the specific ACS. Then, the proposed dynamic neural network is trained and applied for detecting the faults injected to the wheel, which is the main actuator in the normal mode for the communication satellite. Then the performance and capabilities of the proposed network were tested and compared with a conventional model-based observer residual, showing the differences between these two methods, and indicating the benefit of the proposed algorithm to know the real status of the momentum wheel. Finally, the application of the methods in a satellite ground station is discussed.

Experimental Determination of Large Strain Localization in Cut Steel Chips

Metal cutting is a severe plastic deformation process involving large strains, high strain rates, and high temperatures. Conventional analysis of the chip formation process is based on bulk material deformation disregarding the inhomogeneous nature of the material microstructure. A series of orthogonal cutting tests of AISI 1045 and 1144 steel were conducted which yielded similar process characteristics and chip formations. With similar shear angles and cut chip thicknesses, shear strains for both chips were found to range from 2.0 up to 2.8. The manganese-sulfide (MnS) precipitate in the 1144 steel has a very distinct and uniform shape which allows for comparison before and after chip formation. From close observations of MnS precipitates in the cut chips it is shown that the conventional approach underestimates plastic strains in metal cutting. Experimental findings revealed local shear strains around a value of 6. These findings and their implications are presented and discussed.

Geochemical Assessment of Heavy Metals Concentration in Surface Sediment of West Port, Malaysia

One year (November 2009-October 2010) sediment monitoring was used to evaluate pollution status, concentration and distribution of heavy metals (As, Cu, Cd, Cr, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) in West Port of Malaysia. Sediment sample were collected from nine stations every four months. Geo-accumulation factor and Pollution Load Index (PLI) were estimated to better understand the pollution level in study area. The heavy metal concentration (Mg/g dry weight) were ranged from 20.2 to 162 for As, 7.4 to 27.6 for Cu, 0.244 to 3.53 for Cd, 11.5 to 61.5 for Cr, 0.11 to 0.409 for Hg, 7.2 to 22.2 for Ni, 22.3 to 80 for Pb and 23 to 98.3 for Zn. In general, concentration some metals (As,Cd, Hg and Pb) was higher than background values that are considered as serious concern for aquatic life and the human health.

Modeling of Statistically Multiplexed Non Uniform Activity VBR Video

This paper reports the feasibility of the ARMA model to describe a bursty video source transmitting over a AAL5 ATM link (VBR traffic). The traffic represents the activity of the action movie "Lethal Weapon 3" transmitted over the ATM network using the Fore System AVA-200 ATM video codec with a peak rate of 100 Mbps and a frame rate of 25. The model parameters were estimated for a single video source and independently multiplexed video sources. It was found that the model ARMA (2, 4) is well-suited for the real data in terms of average rate traffic profile, probability density function, autocorrelation function, burstiness measure, and the pole-zero distribution of the filter model.

Examination of Flood Runoff Reproductivity for Different Rainfall Sources in Central Vietnam

This paper presents the combination of different precipitation data sets and the distributed hydrological model, in order to examine the flood runoff reproductivity of scattered observation catchments. The precipitation data sets were obtained from observation using rain-gages, satellite based estimate (TRMM), and numerical weather prediction model (NWP), then were coupled with the super tank model. The case study was conducted in three basins (small, medium, and large size) located in Central Vietnam. Calculated hydrographs based on ground observation rainfall showed best fit to measured stream flow, while those obtained from TRMM and NWP showed high uncertainty of peak discharges. However, calculated hydrographs using the adjusted rainfield depicted a promising alternative for the application of TRMM and NWP in flood modeling for scattered observation catchments, especially for the extension of forecast lead time.

Measurement of the Bipolarization Events

We intend to point out the differences which exist between the classical Gini concentration coefficient and a proposed bipolarization index defined for an arbitrary random variable which have a finite support. In fact Gini's index measures only the "poverty degree" for the individuals from a given population taking into consideration their wages. The Gini coefficient is not so sensitive to the significant income variations in the "rich people class" . In practice there are multiple interdependent relations between the pauperization and the socio-economical polarization phenomena. The presence of a strong pauperization aspect inside the population induces often a polarization effect in this society. But the pauperization and the polarization phenomena are not identical. For this reason it isn't always adequate to use a Gini type coefficient, based on the Lorenz order, to estimate the bipolarization level of the individuals from the studied population. The present paper emphasizes these ideas by considering two families of random variables which have a linear or a triangular type distributions. In addition, the continuous variation, depending on the parameter "time" of the chosen distributions, could simulate a real dynamical evolution of the population.