Abstract: This study aimed at developing a forecasting model on the number of Dengue Haemorrhagic Fever (DHF) incidence in Northern Thailand using time series analysis. We developed Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models on the data collected between 2003-2006 and then validated the models using the data collected between January-September 2007. The results showed that the regressive forecast curves were consistent with the pattern of actual values. The most suitable model was the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model with a Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) of 12.2931 and a Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) of 8.91713. The SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model fitting was adequate for the data with the Portmanteau statistic Q20 = 8.98644 ( x20,95= 27.5871, P>0.05). This indicated that there was no significant autocorrelation between residuals at different lag times in the SARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,0)12 model.
Abstract: The present work deals with analyses of the effects
of bearing curvature and non-Newtonian characteristics on the load capacity of an exponential rectangular squeeze film bearing using
Bingham fluids as lubricants. Bingham fluids are characterized by an
yield value and hence the formation of a “rigid" core in the region
between the plates is justified. The flow is confined to the region
between the core and the plates. The shape of the core has been
identified through numerical means. Further, numerical solutions for
the pressure distribution and load carrying capacity of the bearing
for various values of Bingham number and curvature parameter have
been obtained. The effects of bearing curvature and non-Newtonian
characteristics of the lubricant on the bearing performances have been
discussed.
Abstract: In today-s highly globalised and competitive world
access to information plays key role in having an upper hand between
business rivals. Hence, proper protection of such crucial resource is
core to any modern business. Implementing a successful information
security system is basically centered around three pillars; technical
solution involving both software and hardware, information security
controls to translate the policies and procedure in the system and the
people to implement. This paper shows that a lot needs to be done for
countries adapting information technology to process, store and
distribute information to secure adequately such core resource.
Abstract: Saccharomyces cerevisiae (baker-s yeast) can exhibit
sustained oscillations during the operation in a continuous bioreactor
that adversely affects its stability and productivity. Because of
heterogeneous nature of cell populations, the cell population balance
models can be used to capture the dynamic behavior of such cultures.
In this paper an unstructured, segregated model is used which is
based on population balance equation(PBE) and then in order to
simulation, the 4th order Rung-Kutta is used for time dimension and
three methods, finite difference, orthogonal collocation on finite
elements and Galerkin finite element are used for discretization of the
cell mass domain. The results indicate that the orthogonal collocation
on finite element not only is able to predict the oscillating behavior of
the cell culture but also needs much little time for calculations.
Therefore this method is preferred in comparison with other methods.
In the next step two controllers, a globally linearizing control (GLC)
and a conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller are designed
for controlling the total cell mass per unit volume, and performances
of these controllers are compared through simulation. The results
show that although the PI controller has simpler structure, the GLC
has better performance.
Abstract: Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is a procedure tool of environmental management for identifying, predicting, evaluating and mitigating the adverse effects of development proposals. EIA reports usually analyze how the amounts or concentrations of pollutants obey the relevant standards. Actually, many analytical tools can deepen the analysis of environmental impacts in EIA reports, such as life cycle assessment (LCA) and environmental risk assessment (ERA). Life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is one of steps in LCA to introduce the causal relationships among environmental hazards and damage. Incorporating the LCIA concept into ERA as an integrated tool for EIA can extend the focus of the regulatory compliance of environmental impacts to determine of the significance of environmental impacts. Sometimes, when using integrated tools, it is necessary to consider fuzzy situations due to insufficient information; therefore, ERA should be generalized to fuzzy risk assessment (FRA). Finally, the use of the proposed methodology is demonstrated through the study case of the expansion plan of the world-s largest plastics processing factory.
Abstract: In this study, in order to clarify wind-induced
phenomena, especially vertical mixing of density stratification in a
closed water area with floating-leaved plants, we conducted hydraulic
experiments on wind flow characteristics, wind wave characteristics,
entrainment phenomena and turbulent structure by using a wind tunnel
test tank and simulated floating-leaved plants. From the experimental
results of wind flow and wind wave characteristics, we quantified the
impact of the occupancy rate of the plants on their resistance
characteristics. From the experimental results of entrainment
phenomena, we defined the parameter that could explain the
magnitude of mixing between the density stratifications, and
quantified the impact of the occupancy rate on vertical mixing
between stratifications. From the experimental results of the turbulent
structure of the upper layer, we clarified the differences in small-scale
turbulence components at each occupancy rate and quantified the
impact of the occupancy rate on the turbulence characteristics. For a
summary of this study, we theoretically quantified wind-induced
entrainment phenomena in a closed water area with luxuriant growth
of floating-leaved plants. The results indicated that the impact of
luxuriant growth of floating-leaved plants in a closed water body
could be seen in the difference in small-scale fluid characteristics, and
these characteristics could be expressed using the small-scale
turbulent components.
Abstract: An attempt has been made several times to identify
and discuss the U.S. experience on the formation of political nation in
political science. The purpose of this research paper is to identify the
main aspects of the formation of civic identity in the United States
and Kazakhstan, through the identification of similarities and
differences that can get practical application in making decisions of
national policy issues in the context of globalization, as well as to
answer the questions “What should unite the citizens of Kazakhstan
to the nation?" and “What should be the dominant identity: civil or
ethnic (national) one?"
Can Kazakhstan being multiethnic country like America, adopt its
experience in the formation of a civic nation? Since it is believed that
the “multi-ethnic state of the population is a characteristic feature of
most modern countries in the world," it states that “inter-ethnic
integration is one of the most important aspects of the problem of
forming a new social community (metaetnic - Kazakh people,
Kazakh nation" [1].
Abstract: Today modern simulations solutions in the wind turbine industry have achieved a high degree of complexity and detail in result. Limitations exist when it is time to validate model results against measurements. Regarding Model validation it is of special interest to identify mode frequencies and to differentiate them from the different excitations. A wind turbine is a complex device and measurements regarding any part of the assembly show a lot of noise. Input excitations are difficult or even impossible to measure due to the stochastic nature of the environment. Traditional techniques for frequency analysis or features extraction are widely used to analyze wind turbine sensor signals, but have several limitations specially attending to non stationary signals (Events). A new technique based on autoregresive analysis techniques is introduced here for a specific application, a comparison and examples related to different events in the wind turbine operations are presented.
Abstract: A zero dimensional model has been used to investigate
the combustion performance of a single cylinder direct injection
diesel engine fueled by biofuels with options like supercharging and
exhaust gas recirculation. The numerical simulation was performed at
constant speed. The indicated pressure, temperature diagrams are
plotted and compared for different fuels. The emissions of soot and
nitrous oxide are computed with phenomenological models. The
experimental work was also carried out with biodiesel (palm stearin
methyl ester) diesel blends, ethanol diesel blends to validate
simulation results with experimental results, and observed that the
present model is successful in predicting the engine performance with
biofuels.
Abstract: This paper reports the results of an experimental study
conducted to characterise the gas-liquid multiphase flows
experienced within a vertical riser transporting a range of gas-liquid
flow rates. The scale experiments were performed using an
air/silicone oil mixture within a 6 m long riser. The superficial air
velocities studied ranged from 0.047 to 2.836 m/ s, whilst
maintaining a liquid superficial velocity at 0.047 m/ s. Measurements
of the mean cross-sectional and time average radial void fraction
were obtained using a wire mesh sensor (WMS). The data were
recorded at an acquisition frequency of 1000 Hz over an interval of
60 seconds. For the range of flow conditions studied, the average
void fraction was observed to vary between 0.1 and 0.9. An analysis
of the data collected concluded that the observed void fraction was
strongly affected by the superficial gas velocity, whereby the higher
the superficial gas velocity, the higher was the observed average void
fraction. The average void fraction distributions observed were in
good agreement with the results obtained by other researchers. When
the air-silicone oil flows were fully developed reasonably symmetric
profiles were observed, with the shape of the symmetry profile being
strongly dependent on the superficial gas velocity.
Abstract: This paper describes an automated event detection and location system for water distribution pipelines which is based upon low-cost sensor technology and signature analysis by an Artificial
Neural Network (ANN). The development of a low cost failure sensor which measures the opacity or cloudiness of the local water
flow has been designed, developed and validated, and an ANN based system is then described which uses time series data produced by
sensors to construct an empirical model for time series prediction and
classification of events. These two components have been installed,
tested and verified in an experimental site in a UK water distribution
system. Verification of the system has been achieved from a series of
simulated burst trials which have provided real data sets. It is concluded that the system has potential in water distribution network
management.
Abstract: The Learning Management Systems present learning
environment which offers a collection of e-learning tools in a
package that allows a common interface and information sharing
among the tools. South East European University initial experience
in LMS was with the usage of the commercial LMS-ANGEL. After a
three year experience on ANGEL usage because of expenses that
were very high it was decided to develop our own software. As part
of the research project team for the in-house design and development
of the new LMS, we primarily had to select the features that would
cover our needs and also comply with the actual trends in the area of
software development, and then design and develop the system. In
this paper we present the process of LMS in-house development for
South East European University, its architecture, conception and
strengths with a special accent on the process of migration and
integration with other enterprise applications.
Abstract: Electronic seal is an electronic device to check the
authenticity and integrity of freight containers at the point of arrival.
While RFID-based eSeals are gaining more acceptances and there are
also some standardization processes for these devices, a recent
research revealed that the current RFID-based eSeals are vulnerable to
various attacks. In this paper, we provide a feasible solution to
enhance the security of active RFID-based eSeals. Our approach is to
use an authentication and key agreement protocol between eSeal and
reader device, enabling data encryption and integrity check. Our
protocol is based on the use of block cipher AES, which is reasonable
since a block cipher can also be used for many other security purposes
including data encryption and pseudo-random number generation. Our
protocol is very simple, and it is applicable to low-end active RFID
eSeals.
Abstract: This paper presents a design method of self-tuning
Quantitative Feedback Theory (QFT) by using improved deadbeat
control algorithm. QFT is a technique to achieve robust control with
pre-defined specifications whereas deadbeat is an algorithm that
could bring the output to steady state with minimum step size.
Nevertheless, usually there are large peaks in the deadbeat response.
By integrating QFT specifications into deadbeat algorithm, the large
peaks could be tolerated. On the other hand, emerging QFT with
adaptive element will produce a robust controller with wider
coverage of uncertainty. By combining QFT-based deadbeat
algorithm and adaptive element, superior controller that is called selftuning
QFT-based deadbeat controller could be achieved. The output
response that is fast, robust and adaptive is expected. Using a grain
dryer plant model as a pilot case-study, the performance of the
proposed method has been evaluated and analyzed. Grain drying
process is very complex with highly nonlinear behaviour, long delay,
affected by environmental changes and affected by disturbances.
Performance comparisons have been performed between the
proposed self-tuning QFT-based deadbeat, standard QFT and
standard dead-beat controllers. The efficiency of the self-tuning QFTbased
dead-beat controller has been proven from the tests results in
terms of controller’s parameters are updated online, less percentage
of overshoot and settling time especially when there are variations in
the plant.
Abstract: One of the vital developmental tasks that an
individual faces during adolescence is choosing a career. Arriving at
a career decision is difficult and anxious for many adolescents in the
tertiary level. The main purpose of this study is to determine the
factors relating to career indecision among freshmen college students
as basis for the formulation of a comprehensive career counseling
program for the psychological well-being of freshmen university
students. The subjects were purposively selected. The Slovin-s
formula was used in determining the sample size, using a 0.05
margin of error in getting the total number of samples per college and
per major. The researcher made use of descriptive correlational study
in determining significant factors relating to career indecision.
Multiple Regression Analysis indicated that career thoughts, career
decisions and vocational identity as factors related to career
indecision.
Abstract: The forming process parameters of Selective Laser
Sintering(SLS) directly affect the forming efficiency and forming
quality. Therefore, to determine reasonable process parameters is
particularly important. In this paper, the weight of each target of the
forming quality and efficiency is firstly calculated with the Analytic
Hierarchy Process. And then the size of each target is measured by
orthogonal experiment. Finally, the sum of the product of each target
with the weight is compared to the process parameters in each group
and obtained the optimal molding process parameters.
Abstract: Evaluation of contact pressure, surface and
subsurface contact stresses are essential to know the functional
response of surface coatings and the contact behavior mainly depends
on surface roughness, material property, thickness of layer and the
manner of loading. Contact parameter evaluation of real rough
surface contacts mostly relies on statistical single asperity contact
approaches. In this work, a three dimensional layered solid rough
surface in contact with a rigid flat is modeled and analyzed using
finite element method. The rough surface of layered solid is
generated by FFT approach. The generated rough surface is exported
to a finite element method based ANSYS package through which the
bottom up solid modeling is employed to create a deformable solid
model with a layered solid rough surface on top. The discretization
and contact analysis are carried by using the same ANSYS package.
The elastic, elastoplastic and plastic deformations are continuous in
the present finite element method unlike many other contact models.
The Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio of layer is varied in the
present work to observe the contact parameters effect while keeping
the surface roughness and substrate material properties as constant.
The contacting asperities attain elastic, elastoplastic and plastic states
with their continuity and asperity interaction phenomena is inherently
included. The resultant contact parameters show that neighboring
asperity interaction and the Young-s modulus to yield strength ratio
of layer influence the bulk deformation consequently affect the
interface strength.
Abstract: Streaming Applications usually run in parallel or in
series that incrementally transform a stream of input data. It poses a
design challenge to break such an application into distinguishable
blocks and then to map them into independent hardware processing
elements. For this, there is required a generic controller that
automatically maps such a stream of data into independent processing
elements without any dependencies and manual considerations. In
this paper, Kahn Process Networks (KPN) for such streaming
applications is designed and developed that will be mapped on
MPSoC. This is designed in such a way that there is a generic Cbased
compiler that will take the mapping specifications as an input
from the user and then it will automate these design constraints and
automatically generate the synthesized RTL optimized code for
specified application.
Abstract: In this paper, we provide complete end-to-end delay analyses including the relay nodes for instant messages. Message Session Relay Protocol (MSRP) is used to provide congestion control for large messages in the Instant Messaging (IM) service. Large messages are broken into several chunks. These chunks may traverse through a maximum number of two relay nodes before reaching destination according to the IETF specification of the MSRP relay extensions. We discuss the current solutions of sending large instant messages and introduce a proposal to reduce message flows in the IM service. We consider virtual traffic parameter i.e., the relay nodes are stateless non-blocking for scalability purpose. This type of relay node is also assumed to have input rate at constant bit rate. We provide a new scheduling policy that schedules chunks according to their previous node?s delivery time stamp tags. Validation and analysis is shown for such scheduling policy. The performance analysis with the model introduced in this paper is simple and straight forward, which lead to reduced message flows in the IM service.
Abstract: Space exploration is a highly visible endeavour of
humankind to seek profound answers to questions about the origins
of our solar system, whether life exists beyond Earth, and how we
could live on other worlds. Different platforms have been utilized in
planetary exploration missions, such as orbiters, landers, rovers, and
penetrators.
Having low mass, good mechanical contact with the surface,
ability to acquire high quality scientific subsurface data, and ability to
be deployed in areas that may not be conducive to landers or rovers,
Penetrators provide an alternative and complimentary solution that
makes possible scientific exploration of hardly accessible sites (icy
areas, gully sites, highlands etc.).
The Canadian Space Agency (CSA) has put space exploration as
one of the pillars of its space program, and established ExCo program
to prepare Canada for future international planetary exploration.
ExCo sets surface mobility as its focus and priority, and invests
mainly in the development of rovers because of Canada's niche space
robotics technology. Meanwhile, CSA is also investigating how
micro-penetrators can help Canada to fulfill its scientific objectives
for planetary exploration.
This paper presents a review of the micro-penetrator technologies,
past missions, and lessons learned. It gives a detailed analysis of the
technical challenges of micro-penetrators, such as high impact
survivability, high precision guidance navigation and control, thermal
protection, communications, and etc. Then, a Canadian perspective of
a possible micro-penetrator mission is given, including Canadian
scientific objectives and priorities, potential instruments, and flight
opportunities.